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scumreads
Marshmallow Marshall
for so many reasons. just today they voted to lynch Gandhi with the only reason being that Gandhi disappeared at the end of D2? which is totally unfair to Gandhi imo because they have been nothing but active and helpful and then swooped in at the last second to help hammer Shadow. Marshmallow is also going back and forth on their reads of 2b, and also is avoiding giving any kind of scumreads. i hate wishy washy players. it was the same with Shadow. our job is to lynch mafia, so scumreads are one of the most helpful things you can offer as town. if you're wrong then you're wrong but at least try to give us something. ANYWAY all this plus elijah pushing Marshmallow on D2 leads me to believe elijah might've gotten a red check on Marsh.Oliwaz144
i don't have much to go off from their predecessor either i just need to see more before i come to a better conclusion. but jovi seemed scummy to me so that is carrying over to my opinion of oliwaz. as i mentioned before i appreciate them catching up on everything but other than their first post everything else hasn't been much of a contributiontownreads
Pqwerty
i really have no reason to not believe their miller claim. #1 on my town list for sure2b55b5g
she helped hammer Shadow, made this very townie post, and was already sus of Marshmallow since D2. i don't have a lot of hard evidence for my townread on 2b, but i feel like it's mostly the way i interpret the tone of their posts. mostly calm, logical, and helpful. never defensive. 2b just wants to solve the game which is the most town thing you can do lolMinimania
mini was immediately skeptical of shadow's claim, was townread by elijah HARD which leads me to believe if elijah didnt get a red check on Marshmallow n1, he definitely got a green check on mini n1, and mini has been skeptical of Marsh since D2Grilyon2
honestly i thought grilyon died already lmao i just realized they're still alive. i don't see their inactivity as scummy at all though. i mean just take a look at their most recent post from D2. they hit the nail on the head with all of their reads and ultimately ended up voting for Shadow. i hope Grilyon comes back and gives us more insight on D3.Nuclear Gandhi
no longer my top townread, but definitely still a townread. i talked about this a bit in my read for Marshmallow, but Gandhi has been nothing but helpful and helped hammer Shadow. this last post where they said they didn't feel like catching up was weird but the still voted correctly regardless so i can forgive it. hoping to see more from them today thoneutral
Gikkle
i townread gikkle until their weird claim on D2. i do believe their explanation for the claim though but now that i see Gikkle is a very brilliant player, i wouldn't put it past them to do some kind of meta reverse psychology thing lol. this is all just conspiracy tho i definitely lean town for Gikkle but i wouldn't be surprised if they ended up winning the game as mafia and baffled us all
I just realized BB thought MM was the check and Mini was the check at the same time.
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BuzzerBee wrote:scumreads
Marshmallow Marshall
for so many reasons. just today they voted to lynch Gandhi with the only reason being that Gandhi disappeared at the end of D2? which is totally unfair to Gandhi imo because they have been nothing but active and helpful and then swooped in at the last second to help hammer Shadow. Marshmallow is also going back and forth on their reads of 2b, and also is avoiding giving any kind of scumreads. i hate wishy washy players. it was the same with Shadow. our job is to lynch mafia, so scumreads are one of the most helpful things you can offer as town. if you're wrong then you're wrong but at least try to give us something. ANYWAY all this plus elijah pushing Marshmallow on D2 leads me to believe elijah might've gotten a red check on Marsh.Oliwaz144
i don't have much to go off from their predecessor either i just need to see more before i come to a better conclusion. but jovi seemed scummy to me so that is carrying over to my opinion of oliwaz. as i mentioned before i appreciate them catching up on everything but other than their first post everything else hasn't been much of a contributiontownreads
Pqwerty
i really have no reason to not believe their miller claim. #1 on my town list for sure2b55b5g
she helped hammer Shadow, made this very townie post, and was already sus of Marshmallow since D2. i don't have a lot of hard evidence for my townread on 2b, but i feel like it's mostly the way i interpret the tone of their posts. mostly calm, logical, and helpful. never defensive. 2b just wants to solve the game which is the most town thing you can do lolMinimania
mini was immediately skeptical of shadow's claim, was townread by elijah HARD which leads me to believe if elijah didnt get a red check on Marshmallow n1, he definitely got a green check on mini n1, and mini has been skeptical of Marsh since D2Grilyon2
honestly i thought grilyon died already lmao i just realized they're still alive. i don't see their inactivity as scummy at all though. i mean just take a look at their most recent post from D2. they hit the nail on the head with all of their reads and ultimately ended up voting for Shadow. i hope Grilyon comes back and gives us more insight on D3.Nuclear Gandhi
no longer my top townread, but definitely still a townread. i talked about this a bit in my read for Marshmallow, but Gandhi has been nothing but helpful and helped hammer Shadow. this last post where they said they didn't feel like catching up was weird but the still voted correctly regardless so i can forgive it. hoping to see more from them today thoneutral
Gikkle
i townread gikkle until their weird claim on D2. i do believe their explanation for the claim though but now that i see Gikkle is a very brilliant player, i wouldn't put it past them to do some kind of meta reverse psychology thing lol. this is all just conspiracy tho i definitely lean town for Gikkle but i wouldn't be surprised if they ended up winning the game as mafia and baffled us allI just realized BB thought MM was the check and Mini was the check at the same time.
BB's post does not indicate that he thought MM was redchecked and I was greenchecked at the same time. The way it's worded makes it clear that he thinks first and foremost that MM was redchecked, and that if he wasn't, then I was definitely greenchecked
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Alright I'm cool with this plan, if not just for getting a collective idea of the elim, it also forces people to think more about their reads in a more coherent manner (since I'm still very confused about some of the reads right now)
Also just for ease of use, I'm spoilering reasons, just so that my order can be seen clearly.
▼ Onjit▼ Pqwerty▼ Marshmallow Marshall▼ Nuclear Gandhi▼ Grilyon02▼ 2B55B5G_TNG▼ Big Bon Jovi▼ Buzzerbee▼ Minimania▼ ElijahBaleySorry for the wait, I decided to go into everyone's iso to get a better grasp of my reads
I thought of something. I'm gonna use this list as a thought experiment, give me some time to collect my thoughts
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1. Gikkle
2. Pqwerty
3. Marshmallow Marshall
4. Nuclear Gandhi
5. Grilyon02
6. 2B55B5G TNG
7. Oliwaz144
8. Buzzerbee
9. Minimania
10. ElijahBaley
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Maybe I'm thinking way too far into this but I think the list might have some sort of evidence that could help us
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In any given game, if i am a member of the Mafia and I have two scum teammates, whenever I make a readslist, I generally separate my two partners on the list significantly.
In my only champs game, game 7 in season 9, I was a member of the Mafia paired up with Illario and Wisp. I died on day 1. I had a readslist (fabricated, obviously) that placed Wisp near the top, but Illario in the middle.
Yus
Wisp
SpiderzBus
supershorty
illario
Kowboy
schiavetto
shinichiSus
an_gorta_pratai
Seven
Lagas for everyone else, head empty ask later
I post this because I'm trying to get into a scum headspace. I was scum this game.
I think, because I don't want my teammates to be associated, I split them apart in my readslist, and I made sure to place one in the middle. I don't remember why, but I think I didn't want to draw attention to him. I'm honestly not sure anymore
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1. Gikkle
2. Pqwerty
3. Marshmallow Marshall
4. Nuclear Gandhi
5. Grilyon02
6. 2B55B5G TNG
7. Oliwaz144
8. Buzzerbee
9. Minimania
10. ElijahBaley
so, if I assume that I'm not alone in my line of thinking there, then it's probably someone smack in the middle and someone at the top (cant be bottom because that's me and Elijah)
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so, for me, the likely possibilities are as follows under this theory:
Gikkle/Gandhi (less likely)
Gikkle/2B
Gikkle/Oli
Gikkle/Buzz
Gandhi/2B
Gandhi/Oli
Gandhi/Buzz
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However, I'm not done, because I have one more theory.
This game differs from my champs game in that it had a traitor.
Shadow knew his teammates, but they didn't know him
So, maybe to signal to his teammates, he put them next to each other, which provides drastically different possibilities
2B/Oli
Oli/Buzz
But Buzz and Oli's interactions today make it seem like it's not s/s
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under the 2nd theory, the only plausible team combination would be 2B and Oli
under the first theory, Gikkle is likely not Gandhi's teammate, but he could be Oli's teammate (with the defense thing)
I don't scumread Gikkle, so I'm not that comfortable voting him
2B is a little too close in the list to Gandhi for me to accept a vote on her
I already have my sus on Oli, so maybe this is bias speaking, but I think Oli would give us the most information because if he flips Mafia, we are left with two viable candidates to lynch (Gikkle and 2B) and one slightly less viable teammate (Gandhi) according to both theories
If he flips town, then this flip dispels both theories
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Nuclear Gandhi wrote:!vote 2b55b5g
That's a coasting ISO. The ISO is more about trying to assess where the thread wind's blowing, with some clarifications of misc stuffs in the mix, for the most part.
I'm not a believer in the ISO.
Also there's that attempt to switch to minimania instead of Shadow as the main wagon, but that's more mehim indeed coasting. i've mostly been sheeping Pqwerty in neighbor chat, and trying to find what scum team is more likely to be true
i haven't been saying my thoughts because, i honestly dont have many, and if i do have thoughts it's just random speculations or theories
for example here's a thought that i have right now. technically everyone that's alive right now voted for MM (me and Oli wanted to hammer), which means both mafia voted for MM. so im wondering which votes would give mafia the least suspicion. there's also me asking if scum fruit vendor can visit their teammates, because if they couldn't, and they were somehow scum this game, we can clear people who got sent a fruit. though i didn't elaborate on that question because i didn't think it'd go anywhere.
that's like the kind of thoughts i'd most often think about, since im used to thinking like this more than scumhunting (that read post of mine in D1 took a while for me to type, cuz im still not used to actively reading people, im more of a logical person if that makes sense), but idk if these thoughts are actually useful.if you want my reads, currently im unsure what to think of everyone other than Pqwerty and Mini. Pqwerty has been trying to solve the game, which might not mean much here, but he's also doing it in neighbor chat. Mini is clear for me because of cop.
for scumreads i just dont know. if you're scum, it's the same question i asked about MM, who would be your teammate? Gikkle seems to be kinda suspicious of you, you tried to vote BBJ (replaced by Oli) out in D2. i townread Pqwerty and Mini, i know it's not me, so this implies that it's a you/BB team, but idk, BB said that he thought you're a better lynch than MM, and his reasoning for suspecting Shadow (wishy washy reads) doesn't seem like it comes from scum, but at the same time there's also the rule of three from Shadow, and he also scumread MM (but tbf everyone did that). because of that im just unsure about you and BB
if you're not scum, assuming Pqwerty and Mini are both town, there are 2 scums between Gikkle/Oli/BB, it's near impossible imo for scums to be both Gikkle and Oli since Onjit and BBJ were both inactive, which seems to imply that BB must be scum. but then it just goes back to what i said before, im unsure. maybe BB is a deepwolf, or it's somehow a Gikkle/Oli team, after all Gikkle did defend Oli a lot
between Gikkle and Oli, Oli is definitely the more suspicious one, he voted BB first even though he stated that he read MM as scum, idk if that indicates anything but it's weird imo
so im just gonna ask a few questions to try and maybe help the situation since idk what else to do,
Gandhi, do you have any opinions on BB currently?
and BB, what are your thoughts on Gikkle?
I agree Pqwerty is the most towny.
mini I'm willing to trust in the cop check, though Elijah would totally troll too imho
I'm gonna be honest, I put my tin foil hat on and say that this "scenario thinking" of yours comes from a wolf perspective more often than not. Because, well, that's how often wolves have to think. My vote stays and I probably won't be online again.
I'd prefer this sequence of actions: eliminate me today, eliminate you tommorow, you flip wolf, in Day6 is final3 day.
gg byee
“I like nonsense, it wakes up the brain cells. Fantasy is a necessary ingredient in living.”
- Dr. Seuss
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But yeh, my guess on 3b55's partner is either Gikkle or Oliwaz: 30/70
“I like nonsense, it wakes up the brain cells. Fantasy is a necessary ingredient in living.”
- Dr. Seuss
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I might come in near eod just to be sure by vote isn't needed for hammer
hoping that's the end of it for me and this game
“I like nonsense, it wakes up the brain cells. Fantasy is a necessary ingredient in living.”
- Dr. Seuss
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I'm gonna be honest, I put my tin foil hat on and say that this "scenario thinking" of yours comes from a wolf perspective more often than not. Because, well, that's how often wolves have to think.u
that's fair but idk if i can do much about that, it's just how i think.
if im gonna be lynched on LYLO, might as well lynch me right now, i dont want a mischop to happen on LYLO.
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also known as DevilCharlotte
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[1] 2b55b5g: Nuclear Gandhi
[1] BuzzerBee: Oliwaz144
[1] Oliwaz144: Minimania
[4] Not voting: Gikkle, 2b55b5g, Pqwerty, BuzzerBee
4 majority votes to lock in the choice of elimination.
★ ☆ ★ ☆ ★
☆ ★ ★
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Sorry for not being here. Have been pre-occupied by other things.
Since no one is claiming to have redirected Grilyon, I can only assume that was the intended kill. In the case that it was the intended kill, then I think that a mafia most probably resides between two individuals.
The kill must come from someone who was not concerned about Mini's cop clear (as Grilyon was not a threat by any standards, no offense to Grilyon). This must mean that either Mini themselves is mafia - or mafia believed they could ruin Mini's credibility somehow. The only individual we have seen trying to do the latter is Gandhi, at the start of today. Everyone else - and I have checked - has given Mini credit for being cop checked. Oliver said to protect them, Pqwerty said they were town bc cop check (and they continued to defend this fact today), 2b said they were town bc cop check, and Buzzer said they were town bc cop check. The only person that could think they could take down Mini's credibility (without looking contradictory to their publicly stated reads) is Gandhi.
But then - if Gandhi was just trying to ruin Mini's credibility, why kill Grilyon specifically, someone who I publicly said I would suspect if MM flipped town? Why not Pqwerty, myself, buzzer, or 2b? All would be reasonable candidates. Unless, of course, there's benefit to keeping all of the aforementioned individuals alive. Well, if the intention was to put suspicion on Mini, leaving me alive makes sense - I'm the only one that has demonstrated concern about a Godfather.
But what about the other three? Pqwerty was fairly consensus yesterday. Buzzer and 2b had a fair amount of TRs. All of them are seemingly capable. All of them, as far as I understand, were inclined to go after Gandhi today.
Well, to answer that question, we need to look for Gandhi's team mate.
Oliver? Killing Grilyon would only back Gandhi and Oliver into a corner, since Grilyon was sort of a blank slate that could very easily be pushed. In this case - keeping me alive is great because I was defending Oliver. Buzzer suspected both of them though, so why not Buzzer? Pqwerty and 2b also could have been killed. The only thing that makes this a potential candidate is that I don't think either Oliver or Gandhi were paying very much attention to the thread, so they may not have noticed that Grilyon was indeed a potential lynch target, and they may have thought he was still pretty much untouchable.
Pqwerty? He had Buzzer as part of his PoE, and he probably wouldn't want to kill his neighborhood partner. So by process of elimination, Grilyon is just the only valid kill option.
2b? Killing Grilyon makes no sense, as I had said there were 2 scum in Grilyon/2b/Gandhi if Marshmallow was town, so killing Grilyon just makes their position worse. The only way this makes sense is if they were betting on this kill creating enough confusion so as to save both of them. But that seems like such a ridiculous play that would rarely ever work, and I find it hard to believe this team would kill Grilyon over literally anyone else.
Buzzer? Pqwerty would be a good kill as he suspected that the final remaining wolves would be 2 of Gandhi/BB/MM, and MM flipping town should have made Pqwerty a now concerning slot - especially since it would be hard to mislynch him. 2b would be a fairly solid kill choice, as well. It makes no sense for Buzzer to kill Grilyon here.
So only Pqwerty and Oliver make sense as Gandhi's partners - but an Oliver team requires him not reading the thread and seeing that Grilyon is suspected by some. Buzzer and 2b would most likely want to kill one of Pqwerty, Buzzer, or 2b.
If Minimania is scum, he clearly killed Grilyon to avoid NKA. By killing Grilyon, he confuses everyone - no one is then able to ask the question "Why is Minimania alive", because *obviously* mafia is just doing weird kills. And he would obviously not kill Oliver and Gandhi, because those are both easier to mislynch than Grilyon.
So - who would Minimania's partner be? Unfortunately, this kill doesn't help us determine who Mini's partner is - every team with Mini would prioritize Mini's town core status, so killing Grilyon could conceivably happen in each and every one.
Well, first thing to consider is the day 1 wagon, where both Pqwerty and Shadows nearly made Minimania the day 1 chop. This eliminates Pqwerty as a partner - I could see maybe one mafia busing, but S!Pqwerty AND Shadows? Highly unlikely. Additionally - Pqwerty and Minimania had an interesting interaction regarding 3p early day 1 that I don't see coming from two scum.
Oliver as Mini's partner is possible.
Gandhi as Mini's partner is something I could also see. Gandhi trying to ruin Mini's credibility today could be interpreted as distancing - Gandhi likely knew it wouldn't work, but it would solidify Mini's deepwolf position after he flips.
2b also voted mini day 1 with Shadows, so for a similar reason to Pqwerty, this is unlikely to be partnered with S!Minimania. Additionally - 2b was willing to try and divert to Minimania with me day 2. Now, the likelihood of that lynch happening was slim, so 2b COULD have seen that as a safe bet, buuut this combined with the fact 2b nearly helped get Mini killed day 1 is probably not partnered.
Buzzer and Mini are possible.
--
Let me just go through every potential team again, and sort them by likelihood as PAIRINGS (NOT individuals. This list does not take into account my individual reads on players. ) (ones higher up are more likely, ones lower are less likely).
PROBABLE -
Gandhi/Pqwerty - Kills Grilyon because Buzzer is someone Pqwerty wants to push, and 2b is in pqwerty's neighborhood. Thus, by process of elimination, Grilyon is the only target which allows Gandhi to frame Minimania.
Minimania/Gandhi - Kills Grilyon because it distracts from NKA. Gandhi attempts to distance from Minimania at the start of the day, knowing it would likely lead nowhere.
Minimania/Oliver - Kills Grilyon because it distracts from NKA.
Minimania/Buzzer - Kills Grilyon because it distracts from NKA.
PLAUSIBLE -
Buzzer/2b - One thing about these two that interests me is that Shadows was fairly focused on the idea there was a scum between these two specifically (he mentioned this day 1 AND day 2). I think they - especially Buzzer - are cunning enough, and in a good enough position thread wise (other people may be cunning but not all are in a good enough position to make certain risks), to go for a Grilyon kill purely for the chaotic effect. This is the *only* pair that doesn't include one of Gandhi/Mini that I think would have killed Grilyon.
Oliver/Gandhi - Could kill Grilyon if both of them weren't paying attention to the thread and they thought Grilyon was the most un-lynchable player in the game.
LESS POSSIBLE -
Gandhi/Buzzer - No reason to kill Grilyon over 2b or Pqwerty. Pqwerty suspected Gandhi/Buzzer yesterday, so that should have been this teams kill.
Gandhi/2b - No reason to kill Grilyon over Buzzer or Pqwerty. Killing Grilyon puts them in a bad position because both of these are PoE slots and all they are doing is making the PoE smaller.
Minimania/Pqwerty - Tried to get mini killed day 1. Mini had a not S/S interaction with Pqwerty day 1.
Minimania/2b - Tried to get mini killed day 1. Sort of tried to get him killed day 2.
UNLIKELY -
Oliver/Pqwerty - No incentive to kill Grilyon over Minimania.
2b/Pqwerty - No incentive to kill Grilyon over Minimania. Fake Neighborhood claim makes little sense.
VERY UNLIKELY -
Oliver/2b - No incentive to kill Grilyon over Minimania. Shadows listed these two in a list of three - usually, scum do not include more than one scum in a group of three, unless they are in anti-spew.
Buzzer/Pqwerty - No incentive to kill Grilyon over Minimania. Buzzer tried to discredit Pqwerty around the end of day 1 yesterday.
Oliver/Buzzer - No incentive to kill Grilyon over Minimania. Buzzer tried to discredit the "masonry" between me and Oliver. Shadows listed these two in a list of three - usually, scum do not include more than one scum in a group of three, unless they are in anti-spew.
--
This is the result of my night kill analysis. It isn't exactly what I expected when I started doing this, but unless mafia literally did RNG or something, I think the culprit for Grilyon's murder lies within the "plausible" or "probable" sections.
I also sort of TR Minimania? For reasons other than the cop check. I honestly think the likelihood of a tailor/Godfather IS pretty high in this setup, at least if the Miller claim is true, so I'm skeptical of clearing Mini *solely* off the cop check, but Mini was getting pushed by Shadows (to the point where he nearly was the d1 lynch) which is a good look for him. Could be busing, and Minimania has not been very helpful ever since he was cop cleared, but he is lean town rn.
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This is a lot better analysis than what I put out earlier lol
I would change the list names of potential pairings, though. I don't necessarily see your "probable" pairings as likely, considering I know 3/4 of them are wrong
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