Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Norwee · 2022-09-07 08:55:00

Announcement. The slot Big Bon Jovi is being replaced by Oliwaz144.

BuzzerBee, Oliwaz144

Norwee · 2022-09-07 17:09:45

ElijahBaley has been found dead tonight.
Their role is:

▼Hidden text

Norwee · 2022-09-07 17:10:05

Day 3 has started and will last for 72 hours.

Countdown timer here -> https://www.tickcounter.com/countdown/3 … -countdown

[9] Not voting: Gikkle, Marshmallow Marshall, 2b55b5g, Pqwerty, Minimania, Oliwaz144, BuzzerBee, Nuclear Gandhi, Grilyon2

5 majority votes to lock in the choice of elimination.

2b55b5g · 2022-09-07 17:19:16

Oliwaz are you masons with Gikkle?

Pqwerty · 2022-09-07 17:23:59

Well since the cop is dead, my role info doesn't help the mafia anymore.

I'm the Miller and I didn't want the mafia to know there was an investigative role to hunt down, so I kept my role a secret. I am no longer anti-town.

Minimania, Grilyon2

Pqwerty · 2022-09-07 17:28:44

Also, would a mass claim be a good idea since 3/9 people have already claimed?

Minimania · 2022-09-07 17:28:57

This flip changes things, give me a few minutes because I've got a very confident case now

Pqwerty · 2022-09-07 17:30:06

Ok, but don't vote yet. It's not LYLO but we can hit 5 votes pretty quickly.

Gikkle · 2022-09-07 17:38:07

2b55b5g wrote:

Oliwaz are you masons with Gikkle?

The answer is no. I lied to see how people would react. And to see if maybe I could bait mafia into killing one of us (specifically Bon Jovi) out of fear of there being two near confirmed townies.

I had already intended to reveal this today, oliver replacing in probably makes this look a bit awkward though.

Though I don't think anyone who actually thinks about this for more than 5 seconds should fine it scummy so I'm not really worried.

Gikkle · 2022-09-07 17:40:44

Elijah looks like they might have copped minimania as a green check

Gikkle · 2022-09-07 17:43:06

Gikkle wrote:

Elijah looks like they might have copped minimania as a green check

Yeah 99% sure this is the case

Could be godfather or tailored... Not sure how common those roles are on this site.

Pqwerty · 2022-09-07 17:52:27

I mean, Mini was Elijah's 99% townread and he said to never kill Mini, so that seems like a confirm to me.

Gikkle · 2022-09-07 17:52:44

Pqwerty wrote:

Well since the cop is dead, my role info doesn't help the mafia anymore.
I'm the Miller and I didn't want the mafia to know there was an investigative role to hunt down, so I kept my role a secret. I am no longer anti-town.

Why not claim Miller? Investigative is already something mafia would probably reason exists, and not claiming Miller means the cop could have checked you and wasted an action.

Minimania · 2022-09-07 18:00:59

ElijahBaley wrote:

it does not have to be present in more than that - I don't try to force reads like you guys do. if something feels scummy to me I call it out as scummy. I don't try to make up some weird complicated story as to why someone is scum, I only call someone scum (or town) if I'm sure they are. numbers don't mean anything.

So, this is one of Elijah's earlier posts. Elijah says here that he only calls someone scum if he is sure that they are. This is pretty important because of some of his later statements during Day 2.

ElijahBaley wrote:

by the way, I knew Lumi would flip town.
!vote BuzzerBee

ElijahBaley wrote:

anyway BuzzerBee is mafia I do not buy the "he is busy" story one bit just get him

Here, it looks like he is putting all of his eggs into the Buzzerbee basket. Did he investigate Buzzerbee and get a scum result? Well, let's take a look at a post of his that gives us more insight into his read here.

ElijahBaley wrote:

because he is sus
and who cares he is an inactive?

ElijahBaley wrote:

we NEED to random someone. frankly outside of you guys focusing on me and what I regard as basically no-u's are that mostly attacking my play for being different, there have not been any major pushes this game. might as well start with BuzzerBee because he keeps dropping reads, promising to come back and then leaving
are you gonna put your vote on him to get some info or are you just gonna continue and **** about how I'm not "acting townie" or how everyone else isn't doing ****?

These two posts paint what sort of looks like a pretty clear picture. Buzzerbee must have gotten a scum result. But I'll get back to this later.

ElijahBaley wrote:

MM IS MAFIA, HE IS NOT BEING USEFUL THIS GAME. THAT IS HIS SCUM META 100%. GET BUZZER BEE AND THEN MARSHMALLOW MARSHALL.
MM and BuzzerBee = team

In this post, a few posts later in his ISO, Elijah then claims that MM is Mafia. Pretty hard on it, too. There's no leadup to this claim, he just says it in all caps. So, perhaps he got a scum result on Buzzerbee and is presuming MM to be his teammate.

I'll get into why this doesn't make a lot of sense in a little bit.

ElijahBaley wrote:

he's not inactive, every time he leaves he says "I will be back", which is scummy. why is that scummy? I do not know, but I know that as scum I've done that before + I've seen scum doing that before. being inactive or not has no bearing tbh

This is the last vote Elijah makes before making his first vote on Day 2. This is pretty clearly about Buzzerbee.

ElijahBaley wrote:

!vote Marshmallow Marshall
If more people vote for Marshmallow Marshall, I'll unvote so I can keep hammer power.

His vote is placed on Marshmallow Marshall instead of Buzzerbee. This is kind of a weird move to make, considering up to this point he had been implying that Buzzerbee is someone he got a scum result for. It would've been better if he had kept pushing for Buzzerbee, because he would have absolutely no reason to trust him. This is all assuming Buzz showed up negative, and that Elijah checked him. Why settle for MM if you can't be as sure of his innocence?

ElijahBaley wrote:

I am also down to vote 2b. but please vote someone for God's sake. we can't just keep making up reads, we need to make real pushes.

This post makes it look like he's not confident in either of his pushes, which makes me question the validity of either push. But I'll get into that in a bit.

ElijahBaley wrote:

I am not frustrated for being pushed, I am frustrated because MM and Gandhi are effectively calling my play **** and saying I'm scum because of it. This game is actually hard... btw, none of your reads strike me as you being particularly confident in. Why not sheep me and vote BuzzerBee and MM, since I have a much stronger scum lean on these two than anyone else does on me?

After condorcet starts picking up steam, Elijah's wagon starts to pick up some amount of steam. Here, he is talking to ShadowsEdge, saying that none of his reads strike Elijah as being confident reads. Considering Shadow ended up being the Traitor, seems like he was onto something.

ElijahBaley wrote:

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
Also, I am not big into worldbuilding right now because there's little to work with, but if I had to give scummates to Elijah, it'd be among the inactives: it somewhat feels like he's distracting from their inactivity by calling Buzzerbee out for "being busy" (despite it being completely legitimate and despite Buzzer being honestly contributive). As for Pqwerty, I am debating whether or not he'd sheep Elijah THAT openly if he were scum with him. I think it's not impossible (especially knowing Elijah). And if you're going to say "b-but Pqwerty claimed anti-town town role!", that legit means nothing at all. Scum can do that, and may even have interest in doing so to 1) get towncred and 2) excuse their survival on the long run. Of course, it's not scummy in itself, but it's also not towny, and I feel like people are giving him a free pass for it.
when have you ever done that as Mafia. I have literally never done anything like you suggest, and I have never witnessed anyone else doing it (except in the mod)
I actually think Marshmallow Marshall is scum. Literally none of their reads make sense. Normally he's the one defending me from a lynch, now he's pushing for mine. I think Marshmallow is 100% Mafia.

Every post afterwards lays off of Buzzerbee, and he starts digging hard into MM and eventually ShadowsEdge.

ElijahBaley wrote:

also, I won't even belabour how anti-town it is to focus on one guy pretty much all game. I am town, what are you guys doing to do when I get lynched? as it stands, town is royally f u c k e d when I'm dead, because nobody here is genuinely scummy, with the possible exception of Marshmallow Marshall (I am no longer as certain of BuzzerBee being scum as I once was, I reread one of the posts that pinged me and it doesn't look as bad as I thought). I actually wonder if one of the people driving my train isn't specifically trying to get me lynched because 1) they are Mafia and 2) they don't want people to get CFD'd.

He says he's no longer certain of BuzzerBee. I'll get back to this later.

ElijahBaley wrote:

1. I've known MM personally for years. I probably am the player who knows him the best. I am confident because of my meta with him. Specifically, MM almost always defends me from pushes coming from "everyone else" when he is town, but right now not only is he 1) pushing me, he is doing it on totally flimsy grounds 2). It is almost as if he wants me to be Mafia. That, or he wants to lynch me because I'm an easy target. In any event, he is probably Mafia. Am I 100% down to lynch him right now? Yes, as of right now, I am.

Very confident about MM here.

ElijahBaley wrote:

Ok so say MM is mafia. Any idea who their partners are?
Also, just to entertain the idea, if MM flipped town then who do you think the mafia would be?
1) Someone he has not interacted much with. ShadowsEdge is good on that front, I don't recall any interactions between them. MM is a paranoid scum so he wouldn't be talking to his partners in the thread. Possibly also Grilyon, I don't recall him ever drawing attention to that inactive in comparison to say me or Bon Jovi.
2) I have no idea

When asked who he things MM's partners are, he mentions Shadow, Grilyon, and Jovi. He doesn't seem particularly confident, but it's clear from his progression that at this point he's considering Shadow. Also he didn't mention Buzzerbee in this post at all.

ElijahBaley wrote:

I don't buy Shadow's role now. It would appear Shadows made a legit scum slip.

From one of his posts, he's starting to scumread Shadow for what we now know to be an actual scum slip.

ElijahBaley wrote:

Minimania wrote:
ElijahBaley wrote:
Minimania wrote:
ElijahBaley wrote:
On the Normal page I only found one anti-town role that was explicitly Normal, and that's Miller, and that's not a role one would generally hide - more pressingly, it's not a role that one would want to hide from Mafia
Why would you not hide being a Miller from the Mafia?
If I was a Miller, I would claim that immediately so the cop knows if he checks me I will come up as Mafia. much better than claiming it after the fact
Yes but that's basic, why not hang back and claim negative utility instead in case there's a Mafia Cop? The Mafia Cop will believe a Miller to be the Traitor if found and thus they'll be kept pretty safe
Fair enough

As an aside, Miller was my actual guess so let's goooooo

So anyway, yeah. Right now it sort of looks like I've got a green check for being town, and that looks the most likely to me, but I've got a theory about something, and it's all because of Shadow's claim and his flip.

ShadowsEdge wrote:

I didn't learn that there was 2 mafia at the start of the game, so I couldn't have said D1 that there were 2 mafia.
I'll just openly state my role. My role is Informer, I can check one person to see if they were visited by the mafia for that night, I went on MM, who was visited by Mafia, given that Lumi was also definitely visited (due to it being the only kill and the fact that Mafia would not want to miss a kill in a game like this), that means that there are 2 mafia. As mentioned previously, Norwee did say there were up to a maximum of 3 mafia (including the traitor), hence, the issue was trying to find if there were 1 or 2 mafia (discluding the traitor).
Also important to note that I dont see these for the Traitor (explicitly stated in my rolecard).
I didn't want to claim because while most often the role could be pretty useless, it can help to clear some people of at least not being a part of the mafia team (such as MM). Though this doesn't clear them of being the Traitor as the Mafia can still visit the Traitor. My information is also why i've been more trusting of MM in D2 because I knew that they weren't part of a team despite everyone being convinced that they were.

Knowing that ShadowsEdge flipped as a Traitor Watcher, I think it's kind of important that we pay attention to what information Shadow is comfortable with pushing here. Obviously he wasn't a Town Informer, but it's likely he felt comfortable claiming it because he had a role that could pretty much do the same thing, and he could lie about the details as he wants. He says that he checked MM and found that someone had visited him. It could've been any player in the game, and yet I get the feeling that it might've been Elijah.

The biggest problem with my theory is that, when pushing Buzzer and MM, Elijah decided to push Buzzerbee's slot first. Why go on and tell people to vote Buzz first, and then MM if it was a more certain thing for MM to be Mafia? It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

However, Elijah never relented on his scumread of MM, not even once. So I admit, I'm really suspicious of MM right now. I realize that it's probably pretty risky trying to read too far into Shadow's post, but it sounds plausible that someone visited MM Night 1, and I think it might help disambiguate who Elijah checked if someone that visited MM Night 1 could step forward.

Minimania · 2022-09-07 18:02:06

Gikkle wrote:

Why not claim Miller? Investigative is already something mafia would probably reason exists, and not claiming Miller means the cop could have checked you and wasted an action.

I mentioned this before when talking with Elijah, but basically my running theory is that Mafia also has some sort of cop, and thus is they checked Pqwerty, they'd get the red check and would mistakenly believe him to be the traitor, which is hugely beneficial for town, thus a good reason for hiding it.

Pqwerty · 2022-09-07 18:03:19

I'm struggling to see anyone else as mafia besides MM and Gandhi. Their D2 play was super underwhelming. 2B and BB seem like they're actively trying to solve the game. Grilyon is new but helpful. Gikkle is leading the town. I'm mindmelding with Mini in terms of strategy. Not to mention that Gandhi and MM were high on Shadow's townreads despite Shadow having horrible reasoning for all their reads, or that Shadow tried to clear MM. Like it just seems like all the fingers point their way since everyone else feels town to me.

Some reads from everyone would be helpful cuz I really need second opinons on this.

Minimania

Pqwerty · 2022-09-07 18:06:31

Gikkle wrote:

Pqwerty wrote:
Well since the cop is dead, my role info doesn't help the mafia anymore.
I'm the Miller and I didn't want the mafia to know there was an investigative role to hunt down, so I kept my role a secret. I am no longer anti-town.
Why not claim Miller? Investigative is already something mafia would probably reason exists, and not claiming Miller means the cop could have checked you and wasted an action.

I was really hoping the anti-town claim would deter this because I really didn't want this worst-case scenario to happen. The best strategy would've been to claim miller and then have everyone else claim cop, but that strategy hasn't been accepted in past games when I suggested it so I figured claiming anti-town would just be best.

Minimania

Minimania · 2022-09-07 18:12:39

so tl;dr on my huge **** post

Elijah probably checked me but I hypothesize that he checked MM instead. Shadow flipped Traitor Watcher. His posts yesterday implicate Marshall, but more importantly, he claims that he watched Marshall and saw someone visit him. My theory is that Elijah is the visitor, found red, and this led to him never relenting on his scumread of MM yesterday.

Problem with this theory: he pushed Buzzerbee harder than MM at the start of the day, so he doesn't look that confident on it.

Gikkle · 2022-09-07 18:15:43

Minimania wrote:

Knowing that ShadowsEdge flipped as a Traitor Watcher, I think it's kind of important that we pay attention to what information Shadow is comfortable with pushing here. Obviously he wasn't a Town Informer, but it's likely he felt comfortable claiming it because he had a role that could pretty much do the same thing, and he could lie about the details as he wants. He says that he checked MM and found that someone had visited him. It could've been any player in the game, and yet I get the feeling that it might've been Elijah.
The biggest problem with my theory is that, when pushing Buzzer and MM, Elijah decided to push Buzzerbee's slot first. Why go on and tell people to vote Buzz first, and then MM if it was a more certain thing for MM to be Mafia? It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
However, Elijah never relented on his scumread of MM, not even once. So I admit, I'm really suspicious of MM right now. I realize that it's probably pretty risky trying to read too far into Shadow's post, but it sounds plausible that someone visited MM Night 1, and I think it might help disambiguate who Elijah checked if someone that visited MM Night 1 could step forward.

Not sure I understand. Shadows' fake claim would have worked even if it was only himself visiting MM. How do you get Elijah visiting MM from that?

Also, if he did get a red check on MM, I'm fairly certain Elijah would have pushed it way harder.

Gikkle · 2022-09-07 18:17:32

Pqwerty wrote:

Gikkle wrote:
Pqwerty wrote:
Well since the cop is dead, my role info doesn't help the mafia anymore.
I'm the Miller and I didn't want the mafia to know there was an investigative role to hunt down, so I kept my role a secret. I am no longer anti-town.
Why not claim Miller? Investigative is already something mafia would probably reason exists, and not claiming Miller means the cop could have checked you and wasted an action.
I was really hoping the anti-town claim would deter this because I really didn't want this worst-case scenario to happen. The best strategy would've been to claim miller and then have everyone else claim cop, but that strategy hasn't been accepted in past games when I suggested it so I figured claiming anti-town would just be best.

Fair enough.

Minimania · 2022-09-07 18:17:37

Gikkle wrote:

2b55b5g wrote:
Oliwaz are you masons with Gikkle?
The answer is no. I lied to see how people would react. And to see if maybe I could bait mafia into killing one of us (specifically Bon Jovi) out of fear of there being two near confirmed townies.
I had already intended to reveal this today, oliver replacing in probably makes this look a bit awkward though.
Though I don't think anyone who actually thinks about this for more than 5 seconds should fine it scummy so I'm not really worried.

I'm having a hard time trying to place myself in a headspace where I'm mafia and I want to off you for your claim; Masons aren't lovers, and with your claim to have protection, it seems like it'd have been a moot point to go after you anyway. So no I don't really think you're scum for this claim, I don't really buy that this was just bait since it seemed more like a deterrent than anything.

Minimania · 2022-09-07 18:18:59

Gikkle wrote:

Not sure I understand. Shadows' fake claim would have worked even if it was only himself visiting MM. How do you get Elijah visiting MM from that?
Also, if he did get a red check on MM, I'm fairly certain Elijah would have pushed it way harder.

I'm not sure I understand the point of a role that can visit someone else and learn if they were visited that night if you always counted, because then every check would be positive. Thus, I concluded that someone else visited him.

Minimania · 2022-09-07 18:20:33

Gikkle wrote:

Also, if he did get a red check on MM, I'm fairly certain Elijah would have pushed it way harder.

This is the elephant in the room

Actually, therein lies a huge question

What if Elijah did check MM but got a green result?

Gikkle · 2022-09-07 18:20:44

Minimania wrote:

Gikkle wrote:
Not sure I understand. Shadows' fake claim would have worked even if it was only himself visiting MM. How do you get Elijah visiting MM from that?
Also, if he did get a red check on MM, I'm fairly certain Elijah would have pushed it way harder.
I'm not sure I understand the point of a role that can visit someone else and learn if they were visited that night if you always counted, because then every check would be positive. Thus, I concluded that someone else visited him.

Is this some different form if watcher than what I'm used to?

Minimania · 2022-09-07 18:21:30

Gikkle wrote:

Minimania wrote:
Gikkle wrote:
Not sure I understand. Shadows' fake claim would have worked even if it was only himself visiting MM. How do you get Elijah visiting MM from that?
Also, if he did get a red check on MM, I'm fairly certain Elijah would have pushed it way harder.
I'm not sure I understand the point of a role that can visit someone else and learn if they were visited that night if you always counted, because then every check would be positive. Thus, I concluded that someone else visited him.
Is this some different form if watcher than what I'm used to?

I might be confusing this role for something else. Isn't Watcher the role that can check someone to see if they were visited that night?

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#576 2022-09-07 08:55:00

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#577 2022-09-07 17:09:45, last edited by Norwee (2022-09-07 17:11:19)

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#578 2022-09-07 17:10:05

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#579 2022-09-07 17:19:16

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#580 2022-09-07 17:23:59

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#581 2022-09-07 17:28:44

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#582 2022-09-07 17:28:57

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#583 2022-09-07 17:30:06

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#584 2022-09-07 17:38:07

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#585 2022-09-07 17:40:44

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#586 2022-09-07 17:43:06

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#587 2022-09-07 17:52:27

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#588 2022-09-07 17:52:44

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#589 2022-09-07 18:00:59

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

!vote Marshmallow Marshall

#590 2022-09-07 18:02:06

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#591 2022-09-07 18:03:19

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#592 2022-09-07 18:06:31

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#593 2022-09-07 18:12:39

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#594 2022-09-07 18:15:43

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#595 2022-09-07 18:17:32

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#596 2022-09-07 18:17:37

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#597 2022-09-07 18:18:59

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#598 2022-09-07 18:20:33

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#599 2022-09-07 18:20:44

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#600 2022-09-07 18:21:30

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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