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Minimania

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From: PbzvatFbba 13

Joined: 2015-02-22

Posts: 6,388

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Also, if he did get a red check on MM, I'm fairly certain Elijah would have pushed it way harder.

This is the elephant in the room

Actually, therein lies a huge question

What if Elijah did check MM but got a green result?

actually that's not that big a question, he probably didnt check MM at all

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Minimania

Moderation Team

From: PbzvatFbba 13

Joined: 2015-02-22

Posts: 6,388

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

I'm gonna get out of tinfoil hat mode now lmao this is a stupid theory

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Gikkle

Member

Joined: 2022-09-05

Posts: 126

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Oliwaz are you masons with Gikkle?

The answer is no. I lied to see how people would react. And to see if maybe I could bait mafia into killing one of us (specifically Bon Jovi) out of fear of there being two near confirmed townies.

I had already intended to reveal this today, oliver replacing in probably makes this look a bit awkward though.

Though I don't think anyone who actually thinks about this for more than 5 seconds should fine it scummy so I'm not really worried.

I'm having a hard time trying to place myself in a headspace where I'm mafia and I want to off you for your claim; Masons aren't lovers, and with your claim to have protection, it seems like it'd have been a moot point to go after you anyway. So no I don't really think you're scum for this claim, I don't really buy that this was just bait since it seemed more like a deterrent than anything.

I thought they might conceivably go after Bon Jovi (if the slot is town),  who from their PoV, while inactive, could be replaced by a really strong player, and would be confirmed town on top of that.

Bait wasn't the biggest part of it anyways though. I mostly wanted to see how readily people would believe the mason claim.

Gikkle

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Joined: 2022-09-05

Posts: 126

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Not sure I understand. Shadows' fake claim would have worked even if it was only himself visiting MM. How do you get Elijah visiting MM from that?

Also, if he did get a red check on MM, I'm fairly certain Elijah would have pushed it way harder.

I'm not sure I understand the point of a role that can visit someone else and learn if they were visited that night if you always counted, because then every check would be positive. Thus, I concluded that someone else visited him.

Is this some different form if watcher than what I'm used to?

I might be confusing this role for something else. Isn't Watcher the role that can check someone to see if they were visited that night?

The Watcher I'm familiar with sees the names of all visitors.

Minimania

Moderation Team

From: PbzvatFbba 13

Joined: 2015-02-22

Posts: 6,388

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

I thought they might conceivably go after Bon Jovi (if the slot is town),  who from their PoV, while inactive, could be replaced by a really strong player, and would be confirmed town on top of that.

Ohh that makes sense. I thought you were moreso trying to bait them into attacking you, not Jovi.

Bait wasn't the biggest part of it anyways though. I mostly wanted to see how readily people would believe the mason claim.

I pretty much took it for gospel but the protection made me reconsider lol

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Minimania

Moderation Team

From: PbzvatFbba 13

Joined: 2015-02-22

Posts: 6,388

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Not sure I understand. Shadows' fake claim would have worked even if it was only himself visiting MM. How do you get Elijah visiting MM from that?

Also, if he did get a red check on MM, I'm fairly certain Elijah would have pushed it way harder.

I'm not sure I understand the point of a role that can visit someone else and learn if they were visited that night if you always counted, because then every check would be positive. Thus, I concluded that someone else visited him.

Is this some different form if watcher than what I'm used to?

I might be confusing this role for something else. Isn't Watcher the role that can check someone to see if they were visited that night?

The Watcher I'm familiar with sees the names of all visitors.

I've already lost all confidence in my theory lmao but I think this is the nail in the coffin on that

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Gikkle

Member

Joined: 2022-09-05

Posts: 126

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Oliwaz are you masons with Gikkle?

The answer is no. I lied to see how people would react. And to see if maybe I could bait mafia into killing one of us (specifically Bon Jovi) out of fear of there being two near confirmed townies.

I had already intended to reveal this today, oliver replacing in probably makes this look a bit awkward though.

Though I don't think anyone who actually thinks about this for more than 5 seconds should fine it scummy so I'm not really worried.

I'm having a hard time trying to place myself in a headspace where I'm mafia and I want to off you for your claim; Masons aren't lovers, and with your claim to have protection, it seems like it'd have been a moot point to go after you anyway. So no I don't really think you're scum for this claim, I don't really buy that this was just bait since it seemed more like a deterrent than anything.

I thought they might conceivably go after Bon Jovi (if the slot is town),  who from their PoV, while inactive, could be replaced by a really strong player, and would be confirmed town on top of that.

Bait wasn't the biggest part of it anyways though. I mostly wanted to see how readily people would believe the mason claim.

Buzzer and Jovi aren't S/S for what it's worth.

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

I think BB was the only person who doubted your claim Gikkle. Idk if this is WIFOM territory, but the fact that you're still alive could mean that the mafia believed you and didn't kill you. Hence BB couldn't be mafia since he didn't believe your claim. Is this too speculative?

Minimania

Moderation Team

From: PbzvatFbba 13

Joined: 2015-02-22

Posts: 6,388

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

At the risk of sounding dumb, I gotta ask, what does s/s mean?

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Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Scum vs Scum

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Oh also are we supposed to be talking since the thread still says Night 2?

Minimania

Moderation Team

From: PbzvatFbba 13

Joined: 2015-02-22

Posts: 6,388

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Norwee probalby forgot to edit the thread title. I did that sometimes in my games so makes sense

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Minimania

Moderation Team

From: PbzvatFbba 13

Joined: 2015-02-22

Posts: 6,388

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

For what it's worth, I don't think he'd just post the flip and leave the thread open if we weren't allowed to talk

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Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

For what it's worth, I don't think he'd just post the flip and leave the thread open if we weren't allowed to talk

Ah true.

Anyway, I wanna see some stuff from Oliwaz before I make an opinion on them. But rn my vote is spiritually on MM.

BuzzerBee

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From: Texas, U.S.A.

Joined: 2015-02-15

Posts: 4,570

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

i feel like marshmallow is the biggest wildcard right now

thanks gikkle for explaining your claim. was an interesting move but i believe you especially after you put the nail in the coffin for shadow

we’re in a really good spot today. losing a cop is maybe worst case scenario but we’ve made it clear that we can scumread pretty well based on who we lynched yesterday.

bon jovi (now oliwaz) and marshmallow being the only two people not to vote for shadow could be an easy mafia team

but jovi was so inactive that i can’t actually theorize anything from their posts.

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BuzzerBee

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From: Texas, U.S.A.

Joined: 2015-02-15

Posts: 4,570

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

bon jovi (now oliwaz) and marshmallow being the only two people not to vote for shadow

oops just realized mini didn’t vote for shadow either but given that Mini probably got a clear from Elijah and that mini was sus’ing shadow at the end of D2 i find mini as scum unlikely

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BuzzerBee

Forum Admin

From: Texas, U.S.A.

Joined: 2015-02-15

Posts: 4,570

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

and obviously at the end of the day my vote was off shadow but i hope i explained that well enough with the Gikkle thing

however that’s behind us with the new info from Gikkle today

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Gikkle

Member

Joined: 2022-09-05

Posts: 126

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

I think BB was the only person who doubted your claim Gikkle. Idk if this is WIFOM territory, but the fact that you're still alive could mean that the mafia believed you and didn't kill you. Hence BB couldn't be mafia since he didn't believe your claim. Is this too speculative?

It means wolves didn't believe me and saw me as a potential mislynch (or just otherwise not worth killing), or they did but had a kill in mind that took priority over a mason (maybe they rolecopped Elijah, or maybe they had a non-mechanical reason for it).

For the first case - it means wolves are either aligned with Jovi, know Jovi's role somehow as town, or somehow figured out via logic that I wasn't being truthful about the mason claim (dunno how likely this is for anyone except MM, who has played with me before in a game where I've done a reaction fish).

For the second case - It means they either had a good reason to kill Elijah for a non-mechanical reason (I'll have to think for a while about what this could mean), or they found elijah was cop bc of a role cop or vanilla cop (totally plausible in a role list like this).

Marshmallow Marshall

Member

Joined: 2022-07-06

Posts: 101

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Oh my, I had written a post but the forum decided I was no longer logged in, and there's no autosave feature here. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA rewriting...

...but why Elijah? He wasn't widely townread (far from it, he almost got lynched lol) and didn't claim anything. I suspect the Mafia may have a rolecop-esque role (that or they really hated Elijah for some reason lol).

▼Hidden text

it does not have to be present in more than that - I don't try to force reads like you guys do. if something feels scummy to me I call it out as scummy. I don't try to make up some weird complicated story as to why someone is scum, I only call someone scum (or town) if I'm sure they are. numbers don't mean anything.

So, this is one of Elijah's earlier posts. Elijah says here that he only calls someone scum if he is sure that they are. This is pretty important because of some of his later statements during Day 2.

by the way, I knew Lumi would flip town.
!vote BuzzerBee

anyway BuzzerBee is mafia I do not buy the "he is busy" story one bit just get him

Here, it looks like he is putting all of his eggs into the Buzzerbee basket. Did he investigate Buzzerbee and get a scum result? Well, let's take a look at a post of his that gives us more insight into his read here.

because he is sus
and who cares he is an inactive?

we NEED to random someone. frankly outside of you guys focusing on me and what I regard as basically no-u's are that mostly attacking my play for being different, there have not been any major pushes this game. might as well start with BuzzerBee because he keeps dropping reads, promising to come back and then leaving

are you gonna put your vote on him to get some info or are you just gonna continue and **** about how I'm not "acting townie" or how everyone else isn't doing ****?

These two posts paint what sort of looks like a pretty clear picture. Buzzerbee must have gotten a scum result. But I'll get back to this later.

MM IS MAFIA, HE IS NOT BEING USEFUL THIS GAME. THAT IS HIS SCUM META 100%. GET BUZZER BEE AND THEN MARSHMALLOW MARSHALL.
MM and BuzzerBee = team

In this post, a few posts later in his ISO, Elijah then claims that MM is Mafia. Pretty hard on it, too. There's no leadup to this claim, he just says it in all caps. So, perhaps he got a scum result on Buzzerbee and is presuming MM to be his teammate.

I'll get into why this doesn't make a lot of sense in a little bit.

he's not inactive, every time he leaves he says "I will be back", which is scummy. why is that scummy? I do not know, but I know that as scum I've done that before + I've seen scum doing that before. being inactive or not has no bearing tbh

This is the last vote Elijah makes before making his first vote on Day 2. This is pretty clearly about Buzzerbee.

!vote Marshmallow Marshall

If more people vote for Marshmallow Marshall, I'll unvote so I can keep hammer power.

His vote is placed on Marshmallow Marshall instead of Buzzerbee. This is kind of a weird move to make, considering up to this point he had been implying that Buzzerbee is someone he got a scum result for. It would've been better if he had kept pushing for Buzzerbee, because he would have absolutely no reason to trust him. This is all assuming Buzz showed up negative, and that Elijah checked him. Why settle for MM if you can't be as sure of his innocence?

I am also down to vote 2b. but please vote someone for God's sake. we can't just keep making up reads, we need to make real pushes.

This post makes it look like he's not confident in either of his pushes, which makes me question the validity of either push. But I'll get into that in a bit.

I am not frustrated for being pushed, I am frustrated because MM and Gandhi are effectively calling my play **** and saying I'm scum because of it. This game is actually hard... btw, none of your reads strike me as you being particularly confident in. Why not sheep me and vote BuzzerBee and MM, since I have a much stronger scum lean on these two than anyone else does on me?

After condorcet starts picking up steam, Elijah's wagon starts to pick up some amount of steam. Here, he is talking to ShadowsEdge, saying that none of his reads strike Elijah as being confident reads. Considering Shadow ended up being the Traitor, seems like he was onto something.

Also, I am not big into worldbuilding right now because there's little to work with, but if I had to give scummates to Elijah, it'd be among the inactives: it somewhat feels like he's distracting from their inactivity by calling Buzzerbee out for "being busy" (despite it being completely legitimate and despite Buzzer being honestly contributive). As for Pqwerty, I am debating whether or not he'd sheep Elijah THAT openly if he were scum with him. I think it's not impossible (especially knowing Elijah). And if you're going to say "b-but Pqwerty claimed anti-town town role!", that legit means nothing at all. Scum can do that, and may even have interest in doing so to 1) get towncred and 2) excuse their survival on the long run. Of course, it's not scummy in itself, but it's also not towny, and I feel like people are giving him a free pass for it.

when have you ever done that as Mafia. I have literally never done anything like you suggest, and I have never witnessed anyone else doing it (except in the mod)

I actually think Marshmallow Marshall is scum. Literally none of their reads make sense. Normally he's the one defending me from a lynch, now he's pushing for mine. I think Marshmallow is 100% Mafia.

Every post afterwards lays off of Buzzerbee, and he starts digging hard into MM and eventually ShadowsEdge.

also, I won't even belabour how anti-town it is to focus on one guy pretty much all game. I am town, what are you guys doing to do when I get lynched? as it stands, town is royally f u c k e d when I'm dead, because nobody here is genuinely scummy, with the possible exception of Marshmallow Marshall (I am no longer as certain of BuzzerBee being scum as I once was, I reread one of the posts that pinged me and it doesn't look as bad as I thought). I actually wonder if one of the people driving my train isn't specifically trying to get me lynched because 1) they are Mafia and 2) they don't want people to get CFD'd.

He says he's no longer certain of BuzzerBee. I'll get back to this later.

1. I've known MM personally for years. I probably am the player who knows him the best. I am confident because of my meta with him. Specifically, MM almost always defends me from pushes coming from "everyone else" when he is town, but right now not only is he 1) pushing me, he is doing it on totally flimsy grounds 2). It is almost as if he wants me to be Mafia. That, or he wants to lynch me because I'm an easy target. In any event, he is probably Mafia. Am I 100% down to lynch him right now? Yes, as of right now, I am.

Very confident about MM here.

Ok so say MM is mafia. Any idea who their partners are?

Also, just to entertain the idea, if MM flipped town then who do you think the mafia would be?

1) Someone he has not interacted much with. ShadowsEdge is good on that front, I don't recall any interactions between them. MM is a paranoid scum so he wouldn't be talking to his partners in the thread. Possibly also Grilyon, I don't recall him ever drawing attention to that inactive in comparison to say me or Bon Jovi.

2) I have no idea

When asked who he things MM's partners are, he mentions Shadow, Grilyon, and Jovi. He doesn't seem particularly confident, but it's clear from his progression that at this point he's considering Shadow. Also he didn't mention Buzzerbee in this post at all.

I don't buy Shadow's role now. It would appear Shadows made a legit scum slip.

From one of his posts, he's starting to scumread Shadow for what we now know to be an actual scum slip.

Why would you not hide being a Miller from the Mafia?

If I was a Miller, I would claim that immediately so the cop knows if he checks me I will come up as Mafia. much better than claiming it after the fact

Yes but that's basic, why not hang back and claim negative utility instead in case there's a Mafia Cop? The Mafia Cop will believe a Miller to be the Traitor if found and thus they'll be kept pretty safe

Fair enough

As an aside, Miller was my actual guess so let's goooooo

So anyway, yeah. Right now it sort of looks like I've got a green check for being town, and that looks the most likely to me, but I've got a theory about something, and it's all because of Shadow's claim and his flip.

I didn't learn that there was 2 mafia at the start of the game, so I couldn't have said D1 that there were 2 mafia.

I'll just openly state my role. My role is Informer, I can check one person to see if they were visited by the mafia for that night, I went on MM, who was visited by Mafia, given that Lumi was also definitely visited (due to it being the only kill and the fact that Mafia would not want to miss a kill in a game like this), that means that there are 2 mafia. As mentioned previously, Norwee did say there were up to a maximum of 3 mafia (including the traitor), hence, the issue was trying to find if there were 1 or 2 mafia (discluding the traitor).

Also important to note that I dont see these for the Traitor (explicitly stated in my rolecard).

I didn't want to claim because while most often the role could be pretty useless, it can help to clear some people of at least not being a part of the mafia team (such as MM). Though this doesn't clear them of being the Traitor as the Mafia can still visit the Traitor. My information is also why i've been more trusting of MM in D2 because I knew that they weren't part of a team despite everyone being convinced that they were.

Knowing that ShadowsEdge flipped as a Traitor Watcher, I think it's kind of important that we pay attention to what information Shadow is comfortable with pushing here. Obviously he wasn't a Town Informer, but it's likely he felt comfortable claiming it because he had a role that could pretty much do the same thing, and he could lie about the details as he wants. He says that he checked MM and found that someone had visited him. It could've been any player in the game, and yet I get the feeling that it might've been Elijah.

The biggest problem with my theory is that, when pushing Buzzer and MM, Elijah decided to push Buzzerbee's slot first. Why go on and tell people to vote Buzz first, and then MM if it was a more certain thing for MM to be Mafia? It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

However, Elijah never relented on his scumread of MM, not even once. So I admit, I'm really suspicious of MM right now. I realize that it's probably pretty risky trying to read too far into Shadow's post, but it sounds plausible that someone visited MM Night 1, and I think it might help disambiguate who Elijah checked if someone that visited MM Night 1 could step forward.

For the record, I did get visited on N1: I received a fruit. It's a specific one, and I will not say which one it is so that the fruit vendor may confirm himself when the time comes. As for Elijah ever visiting me, it's very dubious (even from y'all's point of view if you assume I am scum), since he would have known my alignment and thus would not have changed his mind after I started townreading him if he had had a red check (see his vote changing to 2b). Similarly, if he had checked Buzzerbee as scum, he would not have given up on him and would at the very least have went back on him once he wanted to unvote me at EoD.

His only real townread was Minimania, and he made that very clear; to me, this is clear evidence that he town-checked Mini and that Mini is thus confirmed town here.

Oliwaz144

Member

Joined: 2022-08-06

Posts: 40

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

My first read: MM is scum.
Im sad Gikkle dropped the Mason claim. Either he thinks im stupid or hes scum

Marshmallow Marshall

Member

Joined: 2022-07-06

Posts: 101

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Also, if he did get a red check on MM, I'm fairly certain Elijah would have pushed it way harder.

This is the elephant in the room

Actually, therein lies a huge question

What if Elijah did check MM but got a green result?

If he had had a green check on me, he wouldn't have counter-pushed me like he did; that would be nonsensical, especially knowing him. There is pretty much no way in Heaven, Hell and everything inbetween that he checked me at all; you're quite obviously the check lol.

I'm struggling to see anyone else as mafia besides MM and Gandhi. Their D2 play was super underwhelming. 2B and BB seem like they're actively trying to solve the game. Grilyon is new but helpful. Gikkle is leading the town. I'm mindmelding with Mini in terms of strategy. Not to mention that Gandhi and MM were high on Shadow's townreads despite Shadow having horrible reasoning for all their reads, or that Shadow tried to clear MM. Like it just seems like all the fingers point their way since everyone else feels town to me.

Some reads from everyone would be helpful cuz I really need second opinons on this.

Gandhi did get underwhelming during D2, but I have no clue how you reached the conclusion that I was. I managed to solve Elijah's slot through a lot of effort (now you're gonna say it's not amazing since he died, but before he died, it was very important, and it really didn't look like he'd get killed at all).

I'd like to hear what exactly makes you think 2B is solving. I have a hard time seeing it, and overall a hard time reading her.

Oh also, I saw somewhere that you claimed Miller. I knew that was what you meant on D1 I'm kinda inclined to believe it, considering the D1 statements you made about being anti-town towny, even though it's far from unfakable.

Marshmallow Marshall

Member

Joined: 2022-07-06

Posts: 101

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

My first read: MM is scum.
Im sad Gikkle dropped the Mason claim. Either he thinks im stupid or hes scum

*resists the urge to OMGUS the heck out of you*

Do you have any reasons for either of those reads?

Gikkle

Member

Joined: 2022-09-05

Posts: 126

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

My first read: MM is scum.
Im sad Gikkle dropped the Mason claim. Either he thinks im stupid or hes scum

I don't think you're stupid . I did actually think you would probably catch on if I continued it and would play along, but I had already intended to drop the claim at the start of today. If you hadn't replaced in, I would have done the same thing.

Gikkle

Member

Joined: 2022-09-05

Posts: 126

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

MM who are your top two town and scum rn?

Marshmallow Marshall

Member

Joined: 2022-07-06

Posts: 101

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

MM who are your top two town and scum rn?

Top town: Minimania and...
Now this one is hard, because earlier I'd have said Gandhi, but his townread has decayed in quasi-oblivion at this point. Pqwerty gets townpoints from me for his miller claim and for looking genuine earlier (despite our disagreements), so I think I'd put him there. The other contender would be Buzzerbee, but my townread on him may be a little outdated, and I'd need to re-ISO him.

It's honestly hard to get scumreads here ;-; noone is being super actively scummy, most people are being inactively null or just "logical but that's all" (thinking specifically of 2b here, and also applied to Shadows before he got lynched), which isn't scummy per se, just definetly not towny. I am pretty sure there is at least one scum among the least active people, though.