Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

BuzzerBee · 2022-09-09 21:12:07

Gikklel wrote:

Despite this, I still don't think MM/Gandhi is likely to be S/S

this i agree with. but i do think if it’s not one it’s the other

2b55b5g · 2022-09-09 21:24:35

i agree with that too. Gandhi currently has his vote on MM. if they’re both scum, maybe Gandhi is just cutting his losses, but idk

2b55b5g · 2022-09-09 21:29:17

im just wondering who would scum MM’s teammate be if it’s not Gandhi

i’ll try to ISO MM if i have the time and see what comes out of it, cuz tbh im kinda just reading the thread and i don’t really have any big thoughts right now

Marshmallow Marshall · 2022-09-09 22:47:25

Gikkle wrote:

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
I'll be honest: if, to you, the walls that come just before your posts and that EVERYONE SEEMS TO BE IGNORING (apart from Minimania, who at least acknowledged their existence, but even then...) are chopped liver, you might as well lynch me right now, because that would mean you thoroughly refuse to listen to what I have to say lol. And to be very clear: this is not my giving up at all, but rather me asking you (all) to actually address my important posts, which I feel like... noone is doing this game? Like, I expected several significant reactions to my post where I said PLOT TWIST and townread Elijah on D2, but noone felt like addressing it significantly, which is really weird. And then, I make the walls with my reads and my thoughts on basically everyone in the game, and NOONE EVEN REFERS TO IT? There's something very fishy with this, and it just feels like you've put the rope around my neck before my trial.
I attribute a lot of this to culture clash; however, Gikkle, you are not from here and have a playstyle that is very compatible with my vision of the game and with my playstyle, as far as I know. Therefore, the fact you just acted like my earlier posts don't even exist makes me suspect you
Wrt to the posts that were not the reads list - I commented on the Oliver push, didn't comment on the other ones bc I didn't think they were noteable/alignment indicative.
The reads list I didn't really comment on because I don't generally comment on reads lists unless something sticks out to me. I didn't see anything scummy or townie with your reads list, so I didn't feel the need to comment on it. Nor did it really add anything new to the conversation. Maybe if you had ended up actually scumreading Buzzer, but you didn't, so
What I want you to do - and what I ask a lot of people to do when I scumread them - is to show me your heart. It's harder to read people when they only post in wall posts every so often. If you made a lot more rapid fire posts that showed your thoughts as a conversation is happening, that would help me see how your brain is working more than a wall post which you had time to think about would (though I understand this is tough to do when you don't have a lot of time to be on). And, if you could do that by engaging in a discussion with your top scum read, that would be even better.
Iirc, you sort of did this with Elijah, and I remember hating that whole entire argument between you and him when I was reading up. I thought it definitely contained one wolf bc it looked like you were pushing an agenda and Elijah was just being pretty weird in his defense, which is why I scumread you pretty early on. But then you stopped pushing Elijah and my SR lessened a little bit. I still think the whole interaction was off but I *am* willing to give you an opportunity to prove yourself.

I love posting streams of consciousness. However, that requires a thread that has a lot of content and a reasonable amount of activity (which Elijah provided), whereas the thread now is as lively as a Martian cemetery - like, there's nothing that allows me to get into a real retroactive back-and-forth debate. Well, I guess I perhaps could if I happened to be online when another active player is online as well, but that requires stars aligning considering my time management lol.

Also, are you seriously asking me to engage in a serious, fruitful discussion with... Oliverz? xD nah, if it does happen, it looks like you'll be the chosen one here

Gikkle wrote:

also MM your vote history stinks
being off wagon both times is not a good look lol

Why is that so?

Marshmallow Marshall · 2022-09-09 22:50:22

Gikkle wrote:

So, just looking through Gandhi's ISO, I feel like I probably gave him a lot more credit than he actually deserves. Some of his posts ARE good. But there's one crucial problem with him that I'm noticing. And that is...
Nuclear Gandhi wrote:
what said about shadow still stands though, they're super clear imho*
Nuclear Gandhi wrote:
AllenCaspe9510, I just find their reads list extremely based lol. I love it. I can see others wouldn't, but to me it's just so pure if that makes any sense? //forums.everybodyedits.com/img/smilies/big_smile
...they have now voted TWO people they have town read, without ANY progression to indicate why. I talked about this earlier - 2b and Gandhi were the people I had flagged for being notably "weird" around the day 1 wagon. 2b gave a somewhat acceptable reason, and it's not like they really *TRed* Allen like Gandhi did. Gandhi did not explain, and he made known that he was willing to vote EITHER of the counterwagons (mini and Elijah). And yet he landed on Allen, who he townread.

^^^^^^^^ none of what he did is insanely hard to fake as scum, and busy/burnt out or not, he still hasn't posted a ton of stuff that could actually clear him - at this point, it's not even just scumhunting, it's also PoE because townhunting was also done in the meantime (especially since actively scummy people have been lacking).

I also hadn't noticed the votes, gonna read his ISO myself

Minimania · 2022-09-09 23:05:33

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

I sincerely hope that's a joke XD.

Yeah it was lmfao

Oliver's post is giving me really bad vibes, like the same sort of vibes I got from Shadows' post yesterday "Intuition". Like wtf are we supposed to glean from this post?

Oliwaz144 wrote:

Nah Marshall

Oli did you give up or what

Minimania · 2022-09-09 23:09:00

Gikkle wrote:

Minimania wrote:
2b55b5g wrote:
Pqwerty wrote:
2B is my Neighbor.
i can confirm that this is true
Oh god, maybe it's just anxiety but theoretically 2B and Pqwerty could be deepwolfing here
Claiming neighbors if it's not true is sort of pointless. Neighbor doesn't confirm that either one is town, which means town can still lynch either one of them, and if they are lying, they'd both get caught and will have gained nothing from the fake claim.

I forgot how Neighbors work, my bad

Gikkle · 2022-09-09 23:10:30

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

Why is that so?

Because this is a majority only game. Meaning if you're town, being off wagon means that a lynch can't really happen without mafia wanting it to happen (well it CAN, but it'd be way harder). By not voting the main wagon, you just make it harder for town to get a town led wagon.

Minimania

Gikkle · 2022-09-09 23:11:24

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

Also, are you seriously asking me to engage in a serious, fruitful discussion with... Oliverz? xD nah, if it does happen, it looks like you'll be the chosen one here

What did you think about my argument about Oliver?

Marshmallow Marshall · 2022-09-09 23:16:14

So, reading Gandhi's ISO, there still are posts like the one in which he blames the non-voters for not voting, and Casper is part of them - besides, he did not have a super solid townread on him beforehand. That being said, I do find it a little (a lot) weird to see stuff like this:

Nuclear Gandhi wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised if Elijah and MM were both wolves together; because their interactions remind me of that 2020 December game where we all 3 were wolves together.
Who'd be their partner here? Anyone, just not me obviously.

when I was being called super towny before - no progression was shown. Besides, he suspected Elijah but ended up... idk, changing with the wind? There is nothing explicit about his read on Elijah, it seems to just go with the flow. And then today, his contribution is the wall in which he basically only accuses me of all the sins in the world. Wut? This definetly isn't an ISO that screams "natural progression"...

Minimania

Gikkle · 2022-09-09 23:18:52

!vote Nuclear Gandhi

Marshmallow Marshall · 2022-09-09 23:35:15

Gikkle wrote:

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
Why is that so?
Because this is a majority only game. Meaning if you're town, being off wagon means that a lynch can't really happen without mafia wanting it to happen (well it CAN, but it'd be way harder). By not voting the main wagon, you just make it harder for town to get a town led wagon.

Mmmmmmm, but I don't think this means I should hop on wagons I don't believe in (that being said, I would have agreed to lynch Casper if I had been here, because I actually scumread him, even though I honestly don't remember why). I guess your point is somewhat fair, but it's really not something I heard so /shrug.

Gikkle wrote:

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
Also, are you seriously asking me to engage in a serious, fruitful discussion with... Oliverz? xD nah, if it does happen, it looks like you'll be the chosen one here
What did you think about my argument about Oliver?

Alright here we go:

Gikkle wrote:

Pretty sure Oliver is just town here?
I feel very confident pqwerty/Mini are town at this point (though godfather is still technically possible for mini, which should be remembered if we get to lylo)
And considering every possible partner, I just can't see a world with scum oliver
I don't think a Grilyon/Jovi team kills Lumi (Grilyon was viewed as town slipped by Lumi, Jovi was inactive so I doubt they really were part of the calculation for who to kill. Neither of them have real reason to be scared of Lumi, because even if people *say* they're good, Lumi's reads are totally off base at this point if this is indeed the team)
I don't think Jovi/Gandhi is likely considering how Gandhi was trying to bus Jovi day 2, and I don't think that's a play Gandhi makes with how he was already in a strong thread position.
I don't think it's both 2b and Jovi bc Shadow was pushing that as his agenda towards the latter part of day 2, and I find it unlikely he does that if they were actually both his partners
I don't think it's Buzzer and Jovi for the same reason. Shadow said it was 2 of BB/Jovi/2b. I don't think he actually puts both his partners in there.
Based on the latest by Marshmallow and Oliver, I don't think it's those two slots either. That doesn't feel like an S/S interaction.
And, if you think I'M potentially scum with Oliver, that means you think BOTH scum were inactive for the first chunk of the game! (I'm also TMIed town by Shadows bc he hard defended my slot and put me at the top of his town reads but since I'm the one saying this it won't be taken as seriously )
So honestly if Oliver's scum it means we're wrong about one of Pqwerty and Mini

I have absolutely no issue saying both scum were inactive for the first chunk of the game: it legit happened in one of my games. Besides, there's no rule saying such a thing would never happen, since inactivity is rarely related to alignment; it's just less likely to happen with scum than with town because there are more townies. You're under evaluation right now plus "Shadows TMI'd someone town" could also easily be "Shadows defended a scummate", so I won't comment on this further.

Everyone kills Lumi xD. That being said, I don't think Grilyon is scum.
Mmmm, I didn't see Gandhi try hard to lynch Jovi at all - and right now, my scum world would be Oli/Gandhi.
2b and BB: I townread both of them, but I don't think Shadows putting his actual scummates in a pool of suspects is impossible at all. It wouldn't be as if he had selected 2 scums on 2 players, after all.
I aM nOt SvS wItH oLiVeRz

Overall... I don't agree with your reasons at all. Like, zero. XD

Marshmallow Marshall · 2022-09-09 23:35:43

Mmmm, this post was longer than I wanted it to be. O well.

Pqwerty · 2022-09-10 00:12:35

!unvote

I just realized EOD isn't today. I'm gonna finish my homework and then I'll take another look at the ISOs.

Gikkle · 2022-09-10 00:38:05

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

"Shadows TMI'd someone town" could also easily be "Shadows defended a scummate", so I won't comment on this further.

There's ways to distinguish that. Why dismiss the point so quickly?

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

Everyone kills Lumi xD. That being said, I don't think Grilyon is scum.

If you have no experience with Lumi (which I understand neither Grilyon nor Bon have), and instead see that Lumi's reads are totally off base (Lumi was clearing Grilyon), you have no reason to fear them, especially since they claimed vanilla town.

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

Mmmm, I didn't see Gandhi try hard to lynch Jovi at all - and right now, my scum world would be Oli/Gandhi.

It was completely unnecessary for Gandhi to apply any pressure *at all*. Gandhi was the top town that day phase. He can easily lead the lynch anywhere he wants. Leaving a vote on his team mate for half the day is not the play there.

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

2b and BB: I townread both of them, but I don't think Shadows putting his actual scummates in a pool of suspects is impossible at all. It wouldn't be as if he had selected 2 scums on 2 players, after all.

It's not impossible, and I didn't suggest it was impossible (for any of these, actually.). I said it was unlikely. Unless Shadow was preparing to get lynched (and thus was in anti-spew), I don't think it's like he goes out of his way to make 2/3 of his scum pool his scum buddies. It puts him in a uncomfortable position if he lives, because he has to go back on his word for whatever reason, or help push out 2 of his scum buddies. And I don't think Shadow would be keen to bus here because A) he has no way to make sure that it's okay with his scum buddies, and B) he may get night killed by his partners for being TOO correct.

Maybe It's because I'm hungry, but I really don't like this post lol. (And not because you disagree with my points )

Gikkle · 2022-09-10 00:44:20

Gikkle wrote:

Maybe It's because I'm hungry, but I really don't like this post lol. (And not because you disagree with my points //forums.everybodyedits.com/img/smilies/tongue)

Well, we'll see if I still don't like it after I eat something.

Gikkle · 2022-09-10 00:52:47

I'm sort of internally flip flopping on MM/Gandhi rn

Marshmallow Marshall · 2022-09-10 00:57:48

Gikkle wrote:

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
"Shadows TMI'd someone town" could also easily be "Shadows defended a scummate", so I won't comment on this further.
There's ways to distinguish that. Why dismiss the point so quickly?
Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
Everyone kills Lumi xD. That being said, I don't think Grilyon is scum.
If you have no experience with Lumi (which I understand neither Grilyon nor Bon have), and instead see that Lumi's reads are totally off base (Lumi was clearing Grilyon), you have no reason to fear them, especially since they claimed vanilla town.
Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
Mmmm, I didn't see Gandhi try hard to lynch Jovi at all - and right now, my scum world would be Oli/Gandhi.
It was completely unnecessary for Gandhi to apply any pressure *at all*. Gandhi was the top town that day phase. He can easily lead the lynch anywhere he wants. Leaving a vote on his team mate for half the day is not the play there.
Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
2b and BB: I townread both of them, but I don't think Shadows putting his actual scummates in a pool of suspects is impossible at all. It wouldn't be as if he had selected 2 scums on 2 players, after all.
It's not impossible, and I didn't suggest it was impossible (for any of these, actually.). I said it was unlikely. Unless Shadow was preparing to get lynched (and thus was in anti-spew), I don't think it's like he goes out of his way to make 2/3 of his scum pool his scum buddies. It puts him in a uncomfortable position if he lives, because he has to go back on his word for whatever reason, or help push out 2 of his scum buddies. And I don't think Shadow would be keen to bus here because A) he has no way to make sure that it's okay with his scum buddies, and B) he may get night killed by his partners for being TOO correct.
Maybe It's because I'm hungry, but I really don't like this post lol. (And not because you disagree with my points )

Ehh, sure, I guess there are. That would require me to go read back again, and I honestly don't feel like it XD, but I guess you're right on this.

This is more of a point for the sake of game theory than for actual reads in this game, but generally, feared and townread players tend to get nightkilled no matter who exactly is scum, because the reactions of other players indicate there is a threat (and make the player a threat).

Gandhi's vote was barely noticeable, though, and so was the pressure. It's the kind of thing I could do to prepare anti-spew for later. As for directing the lynch, he absolutely did not need to do that: town seems to have managed to create the mislynches by itself, so why get your hands dirty when you can have a nice vote on your scummate instead? (Note that I'm not saying this proves anything, just that it doesn't make Gandhi and Oliverz not SvS.)

Oops, that's on me for being unclear. I didn't mean you said it was impossible, but rather meant that it was not even unlikely in a vacuum: it's a typical scum maneuver, actually, and it's far from uncommon to see scums put their scummates in null/scumreads while throwing townies into the mix so that it's hard to tell anything from their reads afterwards. Considering your experience with Mafia, I am pretty sure you have already seen this several times. As for Shadows not wanting to bus, he didn't need to have the intent to bus to put scummates in his scumreads. It depends on who actually gets the pressure; it's relatively easy to say "I suspect X, Y and Z, but want to lynch X" and then basically make everyone forget you even included Y and Z in there.

Go eat: make food, not war!

Gikkle · 2022-09-10 02:32:22

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

This is more of a point for the sake of game theory than for actual reads in this game, but generally, feared and townread players tend to get nightkilled no matter who exactly is scum, because the reactions of other players indicate there is a threat (and make the player a threat).

Scum kill those who advance their agenda. A fear kill that comes from people who have never played with Lumi just seems INCREDIBLY unlikely to me. Idc how much Lumi talked themselves up in thread. People who don't have firsthand experience, and instead are being cleared by Lumi, aren't going to be so afraid.

Something I've experienced is that people that try and dismiss NKA solely because "they were a strong town player" are often scum themselves trying to prevent actual thought into the subject. Lumi themselves did it in the game on SC2 in which they were scum recently (I think that was politico?). Like, yeah, feared and town read players *do* get killed simply because they are feared and town read. But, if their reads are completely wrong, and there are acceptable alternatives (Like Gandhi, 2b, or you), then there is more to analyze there than the obvious "they are a strong town player"

The more you try and brush off night kill analysis simply because Lumi is a "good player", the more I suspect you.

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

Gandhi's vote was barely noticeable, though, and so was the pressure. It's the kind of thing I could do to prepare anti-spew for later. As for directing the lynch, he absolutely did not need to do that: town seems to have managed to create the mislynches by itself, so why get your hands dirty when you can have a nice vote on your scummate instead? (Note that I'm not saying this proves anything, just that it doesn't make Gandhi and Oliverz not SvS.)

I fully believe that Gandhi wanted a Bon Jovi lynch. He had been implying it since the end of day 1, advocated for jovi to die day 2, continued to advocate for it in conversations with other people, and eventually rested their vote on Bon Jovi for basically the remainder of the day phase

Like, yeah, this certainly isn't the most high pressure push out there. But it still had a legitimate chance of catching on because of Gandhi's influence.
As for why a wolf Gandhi would want to direct the lynch - he would want to do so because he doesn't know who the traitor is, so he would want to make sure it goes towards people he is fairly certain are town. Judging by the fact that Gandhi popped in to vote Shadows (when he very easily could have remained silent), I'm *guessing* Gandhi didn't know Shadow was the traitor if he is scum. Which means there is little reason for Gandhi to just plop his vote on his scum mate and not try and lead a lynch somewhere.

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

Oops, that's on me for being unclear. I didn't mean you said it was impossible, but rather meant that it was not even unlikely in a vacuum: it's a typical scum maneuver, actually, and it's far from uncommon to see scums put their scummates in null/scumreads while throwing townies into the mix so that it's hard to tell anything from their reads afterwards. Considering your experience with Mafia, I am pretty sure you have already seen this several times. As for Shadows not wanting to bus, he didn't need to have the intent to bus to put scummates in his scumreads. It depends on who actually gets the pressure; it's relatively easy to say "I suspect X, Y and Z, but want to lynch X" and then basically make everyone forget you even included Y and Z in there.

I'm very aware of that fact. I've heard it referred to as the "rule of three", the idea being that if a wolf mentions three individuals, there's a good chance one is probably scum.

I'm actually sort of basing my logic off of that "rule", because commonly, wolves only include ONE wolf in any group of three scum they have. This is to prevent spew while also simultaneously giving the wolf wiggle room to get a couple mislynches.

So, it's important to note that Bon Jovi was a replacement for Allen in this rule of three. On day 1, Shadows specified that he suspected one of Allen, BB, and 2b of trying to pocket him. He then says day 2 he thinks it's between Oliver, BB, 2b (if Elijah/Mini are town)

I feel like with that context in mind, it makes it even more unlikely Oliver is aligned with either BB or 2b. I would just find it weird for Shadows to just casually replace Allen in that pool of three with another actual wolf. Though, this context is the reason I specified later that I was a bit more skeptical about clearing BB/2b off of the same logic.

BuzzerBee · 2022-09-10 03:09:11

what are common tactics traitors use to let their teammates find them?

i could imagine randomly voting a teammate, or talking about specific people more than others, etc

i’m looking through Shadow’s ISO trying to find those little hints but nothing is really popping out at me.

he did immediately townread Gandhi but honestly that doesn’t say a lot to me

has anyone else looked through shadow’s ISO for anything like this?

Gikkle · 2022-09-10 03:13:49

BuzzerBee wrote:

what are common tactics traitors use to let their teammates find them?
i could imagine randomly voting a teammate, or talking about specific people more than others, etc
i’m looking through Shadow’s ISO trying to find those little hints but nothing is really popping out at me.
he did immediately townread Gandhi but honestly that doesn’t say a lot to me
has anyone else looked through shadow’s ISO for anything like this?

I did take a look, only thing I thought *maybe* was a hint was the 2 informed mafia thing? Like if he didn't know about Norwee's message in the signups thread (which it seems he didn't), then that may have been his attempt at going "yo, look at me, I have TMI about the number of scum, I'm your buddy!"

It's also possible that the MM mafia visit thing was his way of dropping a hint? Because if mafia didn't visit MM, then they'd know Shadow was lying, and obviously town wouldn't lie, so Shadows would be seen as a traitor at that point.

Gikkle · 2022-09-10 03:22:30

BuzzerBee wrote:

what are common tactics traitors use to let their teammates find them?
i could imagine randomly voting a teammate, or talking about specific people more than others, etc

I don't play with traitors much. And most I've played with didn't know their mafia buddies - usually it's the other way around, where the mafia know the traitor, but the traitor doesn't know the mafia. The only signalling I can distinctly remember is one traitor spelling out "traitor" with the first letter of each of their posts.

Though I imagine random voting traitor buddies wouldn't be the *top* pick (since that's too easy to pick up on as town). Maybe talking more about specific people than others - that's possible.

Gikkle · 2022-09-10 05:20:18

Everyone remember to place your vote within the next 11 hours, if you're not going to be free at EoD.

I'll most likely be free at EoD so I'll place my final vote then.

Oliwaz144 · 2022-09-10 07:56:00

Minimania wrote:

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
I sincerely hope that's a joke XD.
Yeah it was lmfao
Oliver's post is giving me really bad vibes, like the same sort of vibes I got from Shadows' post yesterday "Intuition". Like wtf are we supposed to glean from this post?
Oliwaz144 wrote:
Nah Marshall
Oli did you give up or what

i just dont want to read and answer and read and answer walls

Oliwaz144 · 2022-09-10 09:24:27

BuzzerBee wrote:

what are common tactics traitors use to let their teammates find them?
i could imagine randomly voting a teammate, or talking about specific people more than others, etc
i’m looking through Shadow’s ISO trying to find those little hints but nothing is really popping out at me.
he did immediately townread Gandhi but honestly that doesn’t say a lot to me
has anyone else looked through shadow’s ISO for anything like this?

I did but it wasnt very informational for me

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