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#476 2020-06-08 14:02:27
- Norwee
- Formerly NorwegianboyEE
- From: Norway
- Joined: 2015-03-16
- Posts: 3,772
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
Task would be goon anyway, not milk man.
And if i was Task’s team. Why would i make him claim vig when we could literally just keep up the pressure on Shadow and make him get lynched?
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#477 2020-06-08 14:04:57
- Luka504
- Member
- From: Serbia,probs never heard of it
- Joined: 2015-02-19
- Posts: 2,933
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
Task would be goon anyway, not milk man.
And if i was Task’s team. Why would i make him claim vig when we could literally just keep up the pressure on Shadow and make him get lynched?
Okay, why would I make him claim vig if I was his scum buddy?
How long will it take me to get banned again?
Place your bets right here.
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#478 2020-06-08 14:06:56
- Norwee
- Formerly NorwegianboyEE
- From: Norway
- Joined: 2015-03-16
- Posts: 3,772
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
Don’t ask me. I thought would be quite stupid of scum!Task to claim in the first place. And that’s why i was assuming he was likely town. But i don’t really trust him.
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#479 2020-06-08 14:08:43
- Norwee
- Formerly NorwegianboyEE
- From: Norway
- Joined: 2015-03-16
- Posts: 3,772
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
Although my best guess is that he did it to ensure a mislynch so milk man could use his recruiting ability. And that person is most likely you in that case Luka.
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#480 2020-06-08 14:11:45
- Luka504
- Member
- From: Serbia,probs never heard of it
- Joined: 2015-02-19
- Posts: 2,933
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
Exactly my point. Task literally gains nothing from claiming vigilante if he was scum. If shadow is telling the truth then task will inevitably get lynched the following day, so he is actively sabotaging his own faction by lying about it.
How long will it take me to get banned again?
Place your bets right here.
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#481 2020-06-08 14:13:17
- Luka504
- Member
- From: Serbia,probs never heard of it
- Joined: 2015-02-19
- Posts: 2,933
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
Although my best guess is that he did it to ensure a mislynch so milk man could use his recruiting ability. And that person is most likely you in that case Luka.
If shadow is town, the myslinch was already secure. He need not butt in.
How long will it take me to get banned again?
Place your bets right here.
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#482 2020-06-08 14:14:48
- Wooted by:
#483 2020-06-08 14:17:08
#484 2020-06-08 14:19:07
- Luka504
- Member
- From: Serbia,probs never heard of it
- Joined: 2015-02-19
- Posts: 2,933
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
!lynch shadow
I am very certain that shadow is the milkman. There's no other reason why Norboy would use such awful argumentation to try and save him if he wasn't trying to salvage his faction crashing straight into the dirt.
How long will it take me to get banned again?
Place your bets right here.
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#485 2020-06-08 14:21:41
#486 2020-06-08 14:26:11
- Norwee
- Formerly NorwegianboyEE
- From: Norway
- Joined: 2015-03-16
- Posts: 3,772
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
There's no other reason why Norboy would use such awful argumentation to try and save him if he wasn't trying to salvage his faction crashing straight into the dirt.
This is real silly though. Read through my progression today. There is no way to fake that if i were either Shadow’s ot Task’s partner.
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#487 2020-06-08 14:26:30
- Minimania
- Moderation Team
- From: PbzvatFbba 13
- Joined: 2015-02-22
- Posts: 6,387
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
ShadowsEdge - TaskManager, Luka504 (2)
TaskManager - ShadowsEdge, MrJawapa (2)
Pqwerty - Buzzerbee (1)
AllenCaspe9510 - Pqwerty (1)
Luka504 - NorwegianboyEE (1)
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#488 2020-06-08 14:30:54
- Luka504
- Member
- From: Serbia,probs never heard of it
- Joined: 2015-02-19
- Posts: 2,933
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
There is no way to fake that if i were either Shadow’s ot Task’s partner.
Why not?
How long will it take me to get banned again?
Place your bets right here.
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#489 2020-06-08 14:33:04
- Norwee
- Formerly NorwegianboyEE
- From: Norway
- Joined: 2015-03-16
- Posts: 3,772
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
NorwegianboyEE wrote:There is no way to fake that if i were either Shadow’s ot Task’s partner.
Why not?
I’d pick one stance that benefitted me the most and stick with it. Not reconsider anything.
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#490 2020-06-08 14:34:21
- Luka504
- Member
- From: Serbia,probs never heard of it
- Joined: 2015-02-19
- Posts: 2,933
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
I’d pick one stance that benefitted me the most and stick with it. Not reconsider anything.
I fail to see what's so difficult about faking that.
How long will it take me to get banned again?
Place your bets right here.
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#491 2020-06-08 14:35:49
#492 2020-06-08 14:36:11
#493 2020-06-08 14:50:41
#494 2020-06-08 14:55:20
#495 2020-06-08 14:55:49
- AllenCaspe9510
- Member
- From: Heart Locket
- Joined: 2018-03-24
- Posts: 901
- Website
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
!lynch Taskmanager
I don't trust him
I Animate Stuff
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#496 2020-06-08 14:55:59
- TaskManager
- Formerly maxi123
- From: i really should update this
- Joined: 2015-03-01
- Posts: 9,460
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
If I understand this correctly, you were okay with lynching Andy and you also thought Gabriel shouldn’t be carried into the late game because he’s lurking. You also say it would not be the worst thing to happen if we mislynched someone, so even if Andy ended up flipping town, we’d still be okay.
yep
So, correct me if I’m wrong, you didn’t lynch Andy because he was going to be lynched anyway? So, in some parallel universe where the Andy wagon didn’t get much traction, you would have switched your vote to Andy?
yep because he was acting clearly scummy
Is it possible that you actually did this because you weren’t trying to draw any attention to yourself by changing your vote at the last minute, because you are either the vig or scum and neither of them wants attention? Or is that too big of an assumption?
partly because i didnt care, partly because i checked the thread for a very brief period of time in the middle of doing something else, and partly because hopping on the wagons late is frowned upon
So, if we look back at this post, right, you say “we have a considerable chance of striking the milkman right now”. And this struck me as odd because my gut reaction was “why does this guy think Shadow is milkman? Is that some kind of insider information?” But as I said, both mafia wouldn’t claim and cc the vig slot. So, I asked you why you thought Shadow was the milkman, and you said
I still don’t understand what you mean, but let’s see if I can piece this together. If we look at point b) for lynching Shadow today, you say that you can resolve the Luka problem. Is it safe to say you think Shadow and Luka are the mafia? And if you’re saying Shadow is the milkman, then are you saying that Luka is the goon? I feel like you’re trying to say that because you think Shadow is mafia, they have a 50% shot of being milkman. But I think my misunderstanding stems from the fact that you lean towards the 50%. How do you lean between two probabilities? Does that mean you think it’s more likely Shadow is mafia, and because of that, there’s probably a 50% chance of flipping mafia? Is that what you’re saying? Again, correct me if I’m wrong. I’m trying to understand so we can stop our chain of misunderstanding.
if we lynch a random irrelevant person instead of shadow today, the chance we hit milk man is abysmal, its still not 0% but its like 1/10 maybe?
if we lynch shadow, the chance is 33%, or 50% if we dismiss the possibility of him being SK
thats it, thats all the math here
Here’s an plan.
We let Shadow/Task both live. And ask them both to find the most likely candidate for their CC’s mafia teammate. And lynch whoever’s got the most convincing arguments.
this plan is DUMB because we are way less likely to hit the milk man this way, increasing their chances to use the recruit ability
if we lynch shadow today he MIGHT be the milk man and thats a huge win for us
im NOT saying he DEFINITELY IS the milk man, but odds are considerable
@Shadow
@TaskWho do you believe are the likely teammates to the confirmed mafia FYPOV?
if it's not luka then i dont know
Let's be honest here, if Task/Luka504 was a team they would 100% murder Peace.
or you're the SK and you killed peace to use this against either luka or myself :flush:
Why would task counter claim shadow? Shadows wagon was already moving along
it wasn't really
norboy started doubting himself and unvoted (#401)
and the general gray mass of the people either didn't care or didn't seem convinced by your findings because nobody was voting
so i claimed to give more people confidence on voting shadow
are you seriously going to let a cornered scum that got CC'd on top of that to convince you they're town?
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#497 2020-06-08 14:56:09
- Wooted by:
#498 2020-06-08 14:57:45
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
are you seriously going to let a cornered scum that got CC'd on top of that to convince you they're town?
Idk what to do
Why can't I just be a vanilla townie
Discord: jawp#5123
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#499 2020-06-08 15:00:54
#500 2020-06-08 15:02:41
- BuzzerBee
- Forum Admin
- From: Texas, U.S.A.
- Joined: 2015-02-15
- Posts: 4,570
Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]
Hi friends I’m so sorry I haven’t posted I went on a short vacation and didn’t expect it to line up with this game but I’m on my way back home today and I’ll be able to read through everything and give my input.
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