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Hello!
I have held off posting any analysis while I did some investigative journalism.
Now that my journalistic activity is concluded, letβs analyze each and every player.
β
Let us begin with the easiest case:
Bobithan is claiming Town Jailkeeper.
Schlog, Edilights, Pqwerty, Processor and N1KF do not contest Bobithanβs role claim.
Therefore, Bobithan is Town Jailkeeper!
β
Next upβ¦
Schlog is scum. Refer to #187 (by N1KF) or #192 (by Bobithan) for an excellent in-depth analysis.
He basically intentionally outed himself last night hammering Diff55 saying βthis is just kinda funny tbhβ.
He tried explaining himself today but then later self-claimed being scum.
β
I asked each one of you to claim your role.
Unfortunately, only one of the scum (Schlog) claimed to be scum, the other scum is lying.
There is one more scum among [Pqwerty, Edilights, N1KF].
β
Letβs go back to last night:
Bobithan convinced me to move my vote from Schlog to Pqwerty, N1KF would soon join us.
Pqwerty voted for Diff55, putting him on L-1.
The easy choice for Schlog would have been to put his vote on Pqwerty.
He didnβt. Instead he did something surprising. He hammered on Diff55.
I expect scum to be risk-minimizing agents.
Town has to inherently take risky moves to identify and eliminate scum to win. Mafia on the other hand simply has to play it safe until every member of the town is eliminated.
I am therefore considering risky moves to be rather town-leaning and lack of risky moves to be rather scum-suspicious.
Why did Schlog vote for Diff? (A move that looks super risky on the first look)
Scenario 1:
Pqwerty is town. Letβs look at the situation from Schlogβs perspective:
βI am schlog. Once Pqwerty is lynched and flips town, I am the obvious next suspect (proc and bobithan both agree on this and I canβt kill both). No matter what I do, I will be lynched D3. Oh, hey, Diff is L-1! I can lynch Diff. Tonight I will kill proc who trusts Pqwerty. Tomorrow I will be lynched. On day 4, Bobithan will mislynch Pqwerty and I will win β
-> In this scenario, the self-outing of Schlog isn't that risky at all. His role would have been obvious by the end of the day anyway.
Scenario 2:
Pqwerty is scum. Letβs look at the situation from Schlogβs perspective:
βI am schlog. Pqwerty is about to be lynched. Bobithan is so adamant on lynching him, itβs a lost cause to defend him.β and I [processor] canβt see why Schlog would go out and publicly fall for Qwerty. Did he want to save his teammate - Pqwerty - by sacrificing himself?!
-> In this scenario, the self-outing of Schlog is super risky and reckless.
Conclusion:
A schlog-self-scum-reveal is not that surprising in Scenario 1, but super surprising in Scenario 2. I am therefore expecting Scenario 1 to be the reality.
This is so compelling to me that I am calling Pqwerty town.
The most compelling counter-point is that during the last hours of D2, Pqwerty voted for Diff55 (because he wouldnβt want to self-vote).
Putting Diff55 on a L-1 is a pretty anti-town move. But I am assuming stupidity and selfishness over malice.
β
I put N1KF as Townie after Bobithan vouched for him
Take this as you may but I completely refuse to put a vote on N1KF. I can see myself bringing down the hammer on anybody tonight except for N1KF. Which means that vote isn't happening without a revival of edi or diff so we gotta choose somebody else.
I considered this to be a very obvious PR claim. Now youβre telling me that this was not a PR claim, your N1KF read was not based on your role? But you happen to be the Jailkeeper nevertheless? What the hell! π€―
N1KF is totally suspicious for playing super safe.
However, #117:
this leads my scum reads; i think the team is either pqwerty-n1kf or processor-n1kf and it seems like it's just a hard 50/50
For this reason alone, I am expecting that N1KF is town.
β
This leaves us with
Edilights is a risk minimizing agent.
Edilights has had little activity. Started today with voting for Schlog. [Suspected motivation: to gain trust by pursuing scum; but this is a super low risk move given that Schlog outed himself].
Through a process of elimination, but also because of how sketchy their play today has been, Edilights is scum.
I have never thought of programming for reputation and honor. What I have in my heart must come out. That is the reason why I code.
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Town:
Bobithan (confirmed through PR)
N1KF (targeted by Schlog)
Pqwerty (Schlog mind game reverse engineering)
Scum:
Schlog (outed himself)
Edilights (playing too safe, only option remaining)
I have never thought of programming for reputation and honor. What I have in my heart must come out. That is the reason why I code.
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Iβm like almost positive Schlog is just bored towny who wanted to start trolling. The mafia managed to get a town PR voted off D1 and they could possibly win today so itβs not like their situation is dire enough to throw away their OS-juggernaut if Schlog is telling the truth here.
Also I think Iβm town regardless of Schlogβs alignment
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Hi [Ed-Boi],
This is your role for this freakin' mafia:
β²Mafia ## Role
You are a Vanilla Townie.You have no active abilities.
You win when all Mafia are eliminated.
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Yeah I don't think schlog claiming scum is a strategic decision, just a plain old surrender. He's in a tough hole to climb out of.
What do you mean heβs in a tough hole? All the mafia are alive and they can potentially win even. I think youβre just pushing yet another easy mischop. You turned on me on a dime yesterday and since I proved too difficult to vote off, today youβre moving on to the obvious troll on the day where town could potentially lose if it fails to vote correctly.
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Onjit wrote:Hi [Ed-Boi],
This is your role for this freakin' mafia:
β²Mafia ## Role
You are a Vanilla Townie.You have no active abilities.
You win when all Mafia are eliminated.
you are not supposed to do this
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Bobithan wrote:Yeah I don't think schlog claiming scum is a strategic decision, just a plain old surrender. He's in a tough hole to climb out of.
What do you mean heβs in a tough hole? All the mafia are alive and they can potentially win even. I think youβre just pushing yet another easy mischop. You turned on me on a dime yesterday and since I proved too difficult to vote off, today youβre moving on to the obvious troll on the day where town could potentially lose if it fails to vote correctly.
If for whatever reason we can't get town to vote out Schlog today I'll happily vote you just as well. Whatever we're doing we're not nolynching though, I'm assuming we're hitting red today and that saves me from the coin flip of having to guess which scum is going to be shooting at me.
Also why do you think I'm not the jailkeeper? Nobody has counterclaimed. Unless you want to try counterclaiming now. What were your night actions?
aka towwl
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you are seriously overthinking my game plan
This schlog comment (made before Bobithan's) looks like an effort to make me doubt my analysis; if my analysis was right, he could just stay silent and see what happens
--
@Bobithan: Schlog could have just helped town lynch Pqwerty.
He could then pursue town to lynch me (who has spent the game vouching for Pqwerty as much as I can), or Edilights or Diff.
Schlog would not be the obvious teammate of Pqwerty and there was no reason for him to throw... unless if Pqwerty is not his teammate and he is trying to frame him
I really don't understand why you're so sure of Pqwerty and are giving Edi (who looks at least as scummy) a break
I have never thought of programming for reputation and honor. What I have in my heart must come out. That is the reason why I code.
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Also even in the rare case that Bobithan is JK (maybe the actual JK or Tracker doesnβt feel comfortable claiming), why does he immediately suspect that he jailed a wolf and not that the mafia were comfortable enough in their position to kill off Schlog? Cuz the mafia could still easily go for me today with Schlog gone
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processor this isn't some massive 1000 IQ strategy, i joined this game hoping to be town because i didn't want to have to try that hard
also, edilights literally just cheated and posted his role card
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Also even in the rare case that Bobithan is JK (maybe the actual JK or Tracker doesnβt feel comfortable claiming), why does he immediately suspect that he jailed a wolf and not that the mafia were comfortable enough in their position to kill off Schlog? Cuz the mafia could still easily go for me today with Schlog gone
I also got suspicious of Bobithan's claim which is why I asked everyone to role claim, making sure that nobody is contesting his role.
If someone is the actual Jailkeeper, please come forward, in that case I will be happy to lynch Bobithan after Schlog...
Unless that happens, I am considering Bobithan confirmed townie, so he will not be lynched.
I have never thought of programming for reputation and honor. What I have in my heart must come out. That is the reason why I code.
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Pqwerty wrote:Bobithan wrote:Yeah I don't think schlog claiming scum is a strategic decision, just a plain old surrender. He's in a tough hole to climb out of.
What do you mean heβs in a tough hole? All the mafia are alive and they can potentially win even. I think youβre just pushing yet another easy mischop. You turned on me on a dime yesterday and since I proved too difficult to vote off, today youβre moving on to the obvious troll on the day where town could potentially lose if it fails to vote correctly.
If for whatever reason we can't get town to vote out Schlog today I'll happily vote you just as well. Whatever we're doing we're not nolynching though, I'm assuming we're hitting red today and that saves me from the coin flip of having to guess which scum is going to be shooting at me.
Also why do you think I'm not the jailkeeper? Nobody has counterclaimed. Unless you want to try counterclaiming now. What were your night actions?
Ugh you leave me no choice. I didnβt want to claim until I had both mafia but Iβm the tracker. I saw Bobithan target Zumza N1 and N1KF didnβt target anyone N2. This is why I was so sure you werenβt JK.
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Also even in the rare case that Bobithan is JK (maybe the actual JK or Tracker doesnβt feel comfortable claiming), why does he immediately suspect that he jailed a wolf and not that the mafia were comfortable enough in their position to kill off Schlog? Cuz the mafia could still easily go for me today with Schlog gone
The setup is Mafia 1-Shot Juggernaut, Jailkeeper (me), and Follower (Buzzerbee). The mafia does not have their juggernaut shot because they used it to kill Zumza while I had Zumza in jail.
No reasonable mafia would shoot Schlog last night, he was by far one of the more suspicious players to at least me and processor at the end of d2.
also, edilights literally just cheated and posted his role card
Yeah this sucks big time. I'm going to try to convince myself that it's possible edi faked it.... but please never do that again edi, it's against the spirit of the game and gets you modkilled on most mafia sites.
aka towwl
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Edilights is town.
One of [Bobithan, Pqwerty] is scum.
I have never thought of programming for reputation and honor. What I have in my heart must come out. That is the reason why I code.
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