🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

Processor · 2024-03-27 01:18:33

Zumzas suspicion on pqwerty is something I didnt register and I have to look into it

This makes me a bit less unsure on pqwerty until I understand Zumzas reasoning

—

The point bobithan makes regarding the probability of babysitter existing is somewhat true; I was personally also a bit hung up on trying to solve the puzzle of how to identify the current game setup, so I can sympathize with pqwerty and thats why I wrote their behavior off so far

I also had registered that they also didnt seem to bandwagon anywhere, which I liked
However I now realize that they jumped on Buzz after Zumzas suggestion, so perhaps it was somewhat opportunistic…

Hmmm

Pqwerty · 2024-03-27 05:37:00

Bobithan wrote:

weirdly enough edilight's bizarre "hide and seek" comment makes me think he's town more.

Why? I get nothing from this post and I don't know how anyone would townread it unless they had insider information about Edilight's role.

Bobithan wrote:

Zumza here is saying his top two suspects are Buzz and pqwerty.

I don't get this either. If Zumza says that I'm mafia then isn't this kill too obvious? Like of course all the heat is going to go on the guy who was scumread by the guy who died. For example, if N1KF died last night all the heat would be on processor since processor was their top sr D1. Why would I draw so much attention to myself when I could kill off N1KF and go for Processor the next day?

Bobithan wrote:

He implies then straight up says Buzz called N1KF a nothing slot when that just isn't true: he said he was neutral on N1KF and was seeing where a vote would go.

This is sort of twisting my words here because when I say a "nothing slot" I mean a "neutral slot" or "null slot". It didn't make sense that N1KF was actively posting reads and BB just said "yeah I'm not sure about the slot" (meaning he had a null read on N1KF).

Bobithan wrote:

I don't like that he's so hung up about a babysitter when there's only a 25% chance a babysitter is in the game given starting information.

Babysitter is like the only anti-town role in this game and regardless of what chance it had to show up I wanted to find ways to mitigate the risk / potentially weaponize it against the mafia. I'm just gonna drop it now though since we definitely don't have one. If you think I wasted a day talking about it then that's your opinion.

Bobithan wrote:

Which I, very uncharitably, read as "oh yeah I should be acting like it's possible that there's a rolecop"

Yeah that is uncharitable. I forgot that mafia rolecop was listed twice so the interpretation here should be "I should be more worried about the existence of a mafia rolecop than the other mafia PRs since it's more likely to occur".

Bobithan wrote:

Now that we know there's a tracker in this setup

How do you know there's a tracker in this setup unless you're a tracker or a mafia rolecop? This is clearly insider information that we aren't privy to unless you misspoke.

Also one last thing: I don't like how you two are assuming there's a mafia juggernaut to explain why I was so focused on a babysitter. I have been focused on a babysitter because it's an anti-town role that could potentially make the game end in two days, not because I have insider information. I didn't know what scenario we were in and I wanted to mitigate the risk. Everyone's so concerned about my first plan but did you guys forget my other suggestions of having the babysitter either not protect if they thought they were gonna die and weren't confident in a scumread or that they should protect their scumread if they're confident that they're gonna die and that the person they're protecting is scum? Why do you need to assume a mafia role exists to attempt to prove that I'm mafia when I would suggest these strategies regardless of the mafia PR since I'm uninformed town?

Idk Bobithan I just don't think your argument holds up to scrutiny here and that you're looking in the wrong place.

N1KF · 2024-03-27 07:50:38

23 hours remain.

!vote Different55

I feel I ought to respond to Pqwerty since I was rather critical.

Pqwerty wrote:

I don't get this either. If Zumza says that I'm mafia then isn't this kill too obvious? Like of course all the heat is going to go on the guy who was scumread by the guy who died. For example, if N1KF died last night all the heat would be on processor since processor was their top sr D1. Why would I draw so much attention to myself when I could kill off N1KF and go for Processor the next day?

Zumza hinted at a possible PR, which is a good reason for Mafia to target them.

Zumza wrote:

In the very unlikely scenario where Buzz gets lynched and flips Town, I think the best course of action would be to PR on Pqwerty (maybe I, maybe you who is reading this ).

Pqwerty wrote:

I have been focused on a babysitter because it's an anti-town role that could potentially make the game end in two days

I decided to do the maths... For Mafia to reach half the player count (2/4 players) you would need to not only kill five Townies, but also not have a single Mafioso die.

There are three outcomes:

Babysitter voted out (no extra kill)
Mafioso dies (makes the game much, much harder for Mafia)
Babysitter killed at night (what you were worried about)

Game Start

3/12 chance there is a Babysitter.
Chance of continuing: 25% or (3/12) * 100

Day 1

6/9 chance non-Babysitter Townie is voted out. 3/9 chance of Mafia or Babysitter, ending this hypothetical.

Chance of continuing: 16.667% or (3/12) * (6/9) * 100
6 Town remain out of 8.

Night 1

Ignoring possible role blocks, 1/6 chance of Babysitter kill. 6/8 chance Babysitter targets Townie (IF they target anybody)
Add an additional 2/3 chance of Juggernaut coming with Babysitter.

First chance of killing Babysitter + Protectee: 3.472% or ((3/12) * (6/9) * ((1+(2/3))/6) * (6/8)) * 100
Chance of continuing: 16.667% or (3/12) * (6/9) * 100
4 Town remain out of 6.

See, we're already at the Mafia's first chance to kill, and there's already no more than 4% chance of a Babysitter and their victim being killed before the Mafia dies first.

Day 2

3/6 chance non-Babysitter Townie is voted out. 3/6 chance of Mafia or Babysitter, ending this hypothetical.
Chance of continuing: 8.333% or (3/12) * (6/9) * (3/6) * 100
4 Town remain.

Night 2

Ignoring possible role blocks, 1/4 chance of Babysitter kill. 4/6 chance Babysitter targets Townie (IF they target anybody)
Second chance of killing Babysitter + Protectee: 1.388% or ((3/12) * (6/9) * ((1+(2/3))/6) * (6/8)) * 100 (not including Night 1 chance or Juggernaut)

N1KF · 2024-03-27 08:08:17

Wait no, 21 hours remain. I spent like 2 hours with that post...

Bobithan · 2024-03-27 13:33:55

Pqwerty wrote:

I don't get this either. If Zumza says that I'm mafia then isn't this kill too obvious? Like of course all the heat is going to go on the guy who was scumread by the guy who died. For example, if N1KF died last night all the heat would be on processor since processor was their top sr D1. Why would I draw so much attention to myself when I could kill off N1KF and go for Processor the next day?

I don't think a Zumza kill is a stupid move from scum!pqwerty. I'm of the opinion that it's generally good to kill people who are suspicious of you (it's very easy to make the "it'd look too bad for scum!me to do that!" argument), and N1KF is right that Zumza kinda hinted at having a PR making him a compelling target for scum.

Pqwerty wrote:

How do you know there's a tracker in this setup unless you're a tracker or a mafia rolecop? This is clearly insider information that we aren't privy to unless you misspoke.

Yeah I confused follower and tracker, whoops. I hope that's clear given my theorizing towards the jugg+jk+follower setup.

I wouldn't be too upset about a diff elim tonight since, well, he's done nothing so we wouldn't be losing much, but my gut still says pqwerty so I'll stay there. I think proc has proven himself worth keeping around today.

I wish we had more from edilights+schlog+diff. Schlog also hasn't really done much other than advocate for a nolynch and scumread three low hanging fruit slots (https://forums.everybodyedits.com/viewt … 40#p798740) which maybe is troublesome. The only person I feel good about right now is N1KF. I'm still leaning town on schlog and edilights but that's more from divine intuition than anything rational.

Bobithan · 2024-03-27 14:33:33

Our path to a pqwerty elim today might be tough. I think the way that happens is with me+N1KF+proc+schlog since diff is AWOL and edilights is a being of pure chaos. Diff seems like a much easier elim right now as he's only 2 votes away from going, which might point to somebody red between edilights and N1KF and since I feel good about N1KF that probably means red edilights?? Certainly not impossible.

I think I'd prefer a edilights lynch to a diff lynch just based on that but idk.

My vote preference right now is
pqwerty >> edilights > diff > proc > schlog >> n1kf
or thereabouts

Pqwerty · 2024-03-27 18:27:45

Zumza wrote:

In the very unlikely scenario where Buzz gets lynched and flips Town, I think the best course of action would be to PR on Pqwerty (maybe I, maybe you who is reading this //forums.everybodyedits.com/img/smilies/wink).

Is this what made you think Zumza was softing a PR? I don’t know why Zumza would be softing a PR claim when the PRs would want to stay hidden. It’s not like Zumza was under any scrutiny and needed to tell people they were a PR to avoid being voted off. I think it was bait tbh

But if you suspect that the mafia were hunting for PRs then why does that make me a mafia? If the mafia were hunting for PRs and fell for Zumza’s bait then anyone would’ve shot Zumza.

See this is what is making me more suspicious of you, Bobithan. You’re making all these assumptions about how the mafia is acting (“oh there’s a juggernaut” and “oh the mafia were PR hunting last night”) to try to prove that I’m mafia and you’re treating them like facts. The only people who know what the mafia were doing are the mafia so making cases on me based on insider knowledge seems like you either have too much information or that you’re trying to use bad logic to frame me. Why are you so concerned about the babysitter stuff today when it wasn’t a reason for you to vote me yesterday? But now all of a sudden Zumza died and you think I’m some sort of deep wolf? See what I think is happening here is you saw an opportunity to take out Buzzerbee yesterday so you didn’t push a vote on me, and now that Buzzerbee is gone I’m suddenly mafia to you after being one of your top towns yesterday. I think you killed Zumza since you fell for their PR bait and then you tried to put all the blame on me. I think I’m just the next one on your hit list cuz your previous post lists a bunch of inactive people (easy misvotes) as your next targets if you can’t mischop me. Like why is Diff55 your next mafia target if you were so suspicious of Processor yesterday?
!vote Bobithan

Pqwerty · 2024-03-27 18:28:26

Edit: Why is your next target Edilights?*

Processor · 2024-03-27 19:01:35

Good morning

Town has to inherently take risky moves to identify and eliminate scum to win. Mafia on the other hand simply has to play it safe until every member of the town is eliminated.
I am therefore considering risky moves to be rather town-leaning and lack of risky moves to be rather scum-suspicious.

Schlog

Bobithan wrote:

Schlog also hasn't really done much other than advocate for a nolynch and scumread three low hanging fruit slots (https://forums.everybodyedits.com/viewt … 40#p798740) which maybe is troublesome.

Schlog's behavior has been pretty "safe", no matter the outcome of his actions; it would be hard to criticize him for it.

Current status: Scum-suspect

Bobithan

Several risky moves:
- #40 - starting a vote on proc
- #45 - move away from proc bandwagon after two others joined quickly
- #85 - push to lynch pqwerty

His behavior towards diff is kinda sus but at the same time the explanations add up and to be honest, the only thing that makes me suspect him is how he treated Diff; it's a pretty weak case I admit and therefore...

Current status: Town lean [will change my mind if Diff ends up flipping scum]

N1KF

He does decent analysis and coverage of the game. At the same time, his votes have been low hanging fruits ?

Safe moves:

- #32 - 2nd vote on Schlog in a playful manner
- #44 - 3rd pressure vote on Proc - this spooked Bobithan because things were moving too fast
- #77 - 5th hammer vote on Buzz 10 min before game end - hard to criticize him for preventing a nolynch
- #103 - 2nd vote on Different55

Current status: Scum suspect

Processor · 2024-03-27 19:06:22

Town lean:

Bobithan
... Pqwerty (unsure)

Scum lean:

N1KF
Schlog

Idk:

Diff
Edilights

---

I personally feel more confident lynching someone from the set of people who voted on Buzz [Schlog, N1KF, Pqwerty, Bobithan] than to lynch the inactives

Processor · 2024-03-27 19:38:26

Pqwerty wrote:

Why are you so concerned about the babysitter stuff today when it wasn’t a reason for you to vote me yesterday? But now all of a sudden Zumza died and you think I’m some sort of deep wolf?

I kinda sympathize with Pqwerty here.

Can someone resummarize the case of why Pqwerty is scum to me again?

Happy to jump on board if the case makes sense; so far the argument seems to be relying on Pqwerty accidentally relying non-public information; but the argument for it is super weak... its super plausible to me that he was simply focusing on one game variant because only on that variant it even makes sense to consider a roleclaim

---

I am 85 % sure there is exactly 1 (not 0 or 2) scum among [N1KF, Bobithan]

---

Processor · 2024-03-27 19:41:27

!vote N1KF

this is my best bet right now; happy to be persuaded elsewhere

---

I dislike voting for Diff because of how N1KF, my top suspect, considers him scum
I am fine with going for Pqwerty or Schlog (the other two Buzz voters)

Bobithan · 2024-03-27 20:23:29

I don't like that my main argument for a pqwerty yeet is being construed as primarily based on his babysitter paranoia; my two main points were:
-A Zumza kill is beneficial for scum!pqwerty since that was the main person sussed of him d1. I don't care if it's too obvious of a kill, that argument doesn't hold water for me. I find it to be indicative.
-His reasoning to vote for buzzerbee I find very disingenuous. I don't find the difference between saying n1kf is "neutral" and "nothing" to be as insignificant as pqwerty is arguing.

I've also forgotten to mention this d2 but I did d1: I really did not like him giving any credence to a nolynch strategy in https://forums.everybodyedits.com/viewt … 37#p798737

The whole juggernaut/insider information theory is more speculation than anything concrete, but it's not something I can really ignore.

Pqwerty wrote:

Edit: Why is your next target Edilights?*

I explained why in the post. I think a vote on diff is really easy for scum to make, so I wouldn't be taken aback by one red among [edi, n1kf] and since I think n1kf is town that makes edi shoot up quite a bit. But still not as high as you :>

Pqwerty · 2024-03-27 20:51:37

Bobithan wrote:

-A Zumza kill is beneficial for scum!pqwerty since that was the main person sussed of him d1. I don't care if it's too obvious of a kill, that argument doesn't hold water for me. I find it to be indicative.

Sure but again, unless you're mafia you don't know why Zumza was killed. You agreed that it could be PR hunting as well. So basing this part of your argument on the possibility that this was the reason the mafia killed Zumza is either inside information or a bad argument, as I've said before.

Bobithan wrote:

His reasoning to vote for buzzerbee I find very disingenuous. I don't find the difference between saying n1kf is "neutral" and "nothing" to be as insignificant as pqwerty is arguing.

You're arguing about word choice here. Just because I said "nothing" instead of "neutral/null" is just nitpicking here I feel.

Bobithan wrote:

I really did not like him giving any credence to a nolynch strateg

I don't think you understand how risk-averse I am to the anti-town PR. But also, I didn't really support the no vote. If you read back I said I understand why someone would suggest a no-vote to prevent the game ending in 2 days, but I was still in favor of voting.

But honestly though, if you were so against the stuff I did yesterday then why was your vote on processor (had 1 post at the time) and Buzzerbee over me? From my understanding, wasn't I one of your top town reads yesterday but now that BB is gone it's an issue? I still think what's happening here is you wanted to vote me out yesterday but you saw that you could easily just hop on the Buzzerbee wagon first and then mischop me today by starting the day guns a blazin' with a long list of mediocre (at best) reasons to get me out. You set the pace by voting me and are hoping to get everyone to blindly turn on me without scrutinizing any of your arguments.

Bobithan · 2024-03-27 21:09:54

Because I wasn't really interested in booting you day 1? Buzz and proc were my top choices. I don't even know if I'd have voted you over a slot like diff or edi d1. Changing my outlook after 2 flips is not as extraordinary as you're making it out to be.

Also I think my arguments are rather good for a game such as this, thank you.

N1KF · 2024-03-27 21:49:41

Thinking about it some more, a Different55 kill would not give us much info. I put him at the top, mainly reasoning that he's not providing anything for the Town.

I underestimated how much activity there would be, so I thought voting on somebody would be more urgent than it was. I'm open to switching votes on somebody who would give us more clues.

Bobithan wrote:

Our path to a pqwerty elim today might be tough. I think the way that happens is with me+N1KF+proc+schlog since diff is AWOL and edilights is a being of pure chaos. Diff seems like a much easier elim right now as he's only 2 votes away from going, which might point to somebody red between edilights and N1KF and since I feel good about N1KF that probably means red edilights?? Certainly not impossible.

If I changed my vote to Pqwerty, they'd have as many votes as Diff has right now. I can back up a Pqwerty vote if needed.

Schlog · 2024-03-27 22:00:17

sorry for not contributing much today, i have been busy with work

as far as the zumza kill goes, as someone who plays a lot of fighting games, it really depends on how many levels deep the killer was thinking before performing the action - and i think this is especially important because nearly everyone in this game knows how to play mafia quite well. from what i can tell, zumza was clearly baiting out a mafia kill from pqwerty and i'm not 100% sure pqwerty would've fallen for it. i don't think edilights would've thought of this much at all, and considering how he's playing, i think he's probably town, and was hoping for a mafia role because they're usually more fun when you aren't really thinking

this leads my scum reads; i think the team is either pqwerty-n1kf or processor-n1kf and it seems like it's just a hard 50/50

for pqwerty, he clearly has the game knowledge to perform the layered thinking like previously mentioned

as for processor, i have two reasons:
-firstly, his defense of pqwerty - i honestly thought bobithan's suspicion was justified immediately, since pqwerty was on zumza's suspect list. pqwerty also just sort of voted anyone who was starting to rack up votes
-secondly, his reasoning for NOT voting diff:

Processor wrote:

I personally feel more confident lynching someone from the set of people who voted on Buzz [Schlog, N1KF, Pqwerty, Bobithan] than to lynch the inactives

this is just objectively wrong i feel. like bobithan explained, it's a numbers game which is currently a 2v5 that's playing like a 2v3. diff's inactivity punishes the town because every voter is essential, and edilight's vote isn't nearly as useful since he's an agent of chaos. at least edilights can still do something, but diff is really just a liability unless he starts talking

for my town reads, i actually think there's a strong possibility of diff being the other TP role. nobody's claimed and we don't know anything about the night actions.
i think edilights is town for reasons stated already
bobithan i think is town, mostly because yeah i literally can't refute a single thing he's said so far (if he's mafia then he's too busted)

since i rule those 3 as town that leaves n1kf as the last option and i really doubt both processor and pqwerty are the mafia

Bobithan · 2024-03-27 22:06:49

Schlog wrote:

nobody's claimed and we don't know anything about the night actions.

woah there, be careful fishing for pr info!!

Bobithan · 2024-03-27 22:07:11

hey schlog wanna vote pqwerty?

Bobithan · 2024-03-27 22:09:06

also care to explain your strong suspicion vs N1KF?

Schlog · 2024-03-27 22:10:07

i kinda wanna vote diff tbh and pqwerty tomorrow so we dont end up in a 2v3 with an inactive and miss a vote

Processor · 2024-03-27 22:12:35

Im not happy with how easy a pqwerty lynch is, thats the only hesitation I have with the vote

I am happy to provide the hammer on pqwerty before we do a nolynch or a diff55 lynch which doesnt return much info(agreed w n1kf on that)

Schlog seems to agree with me on the n1kf suspicion, Bobithan is against it

Bobithan · 2024-03-27 22:13:51

I'm going to hope that onjit is able to find a sub for diff for d3

Also didn't you just say diff is probably the pr

Schlog · 2024-03-27 22:14:24

Bobithan wrote:

also care to explain your strong suspicion vs N1KF?

idk it kinda feels like he's just being too perfect and really only analyzing everyone else rather than posting any strong opinions, just gives me a bad feeling

Bobithan · 2024-03-27 22:16:32

Processor wrote:

Im not happy with how easy a pqwerty lynch is

Not sure where this idea came from. The voting bloc for a pqwerty yeet is pretty much exactly me+n1kf+schlog+you. all 4 of us need to be onboard. diff already has 2 votes and schlog is expressing interest in that.

maybe I'm just biased because I'm coming from the POV of trying to get everybody to vote for pqwerty so to me it doesn't seem too easy lol

Official Everybody Edits Forums

#101 2024-03-27 01:18:33

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#102 2024-03-27 05:37:00

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#103 2024-03-27 07:50:38

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

!vote Different55

Game Start

Day 1

Night 1

Day 2

Night 2

#104 2024-03-27 08:08:17

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#105 2024-03-27 13:33:55

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#106 2024-03-27 14:33:33

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#107 2024-03-27 18:27:45

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#108 2024-03-27 18:28:26

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#109 2024-03-27 19:01:35

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

Schlog

Bobithan

N1KF

#110 2024-03-27 19:06:22

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#111 2024-03-27 19:38:26

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#112 2024-03-27 19:41:27

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

!vote N1KF

#113 2024-03-27 20:23:29

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#114 2024-03-27 20:51:37

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#115 2024-03-27 21:09:54

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#116 2024-03-27 21:49:41

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#117 2024-03-27 22:00:17

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#118 2024-03-27 22:06:49

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#119 2024-03-27 22:07:11

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#120 2024-03-27 22:09:06

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#121 2024-03-27 22:10:07

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#122 2024-03-27 22:12:35

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#123 2024-03-27 22:13:51

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#124 2024-03-27 22:14:24

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

#125 2024-03-27 22:16:32

Re: 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

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