Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

TaskManager · 2020-06-08 02:37:42

Pqwerty wrote:

TaskManager wrote:
If we accidentally lynch a townie that's not the end of the world and we do gain information by analyzing connections the dead townie had with other members, this sometimes goes as far as confirming other player(s) to be townie(s) which reduces the pool of lynch candidates and brings us closer to winning
There's your citation.

Yeah I'm saying "accidentally" because I can't know whether they're town or not ahead of time, and it was in response to Andy's "we shouldn't lynch anyone because they might be townie"

Pqwerty wrote:

But you say a townie mislynch would be good for the information.

Your wording here implies that I'm saying lynching a proven townie would be good even if I know they're town prior to the lynch

Pqwerty wrote:

Also, if you assume someone's mafia, there's also a 50% chance they flip goon. So, if you think that Shadow is scum, why do you say that Shadow is the milkman over being a goon?

Bro I literally said there's a 33% (if we count in the SK) or 50% (if we don't) chance to it and that's considerable enough to give it a shot
Quit putting words in my mouth because I never said Shadow is more likely to be milkman than goon

Pqwerty wrote:

The contradiction is that you support a lynch that gives info, but chose to lynch someone that wouldn't give any info.

Also in response to this, I've already said that I supported either of the lynches and I also said why I voted for one and not for the other
Maybe you should read the posts before replying idk

AllenCaspe9510 · 2020-06-08 02:38:04

I don't trust shadow, I think he has connections with luka, as for task, as much as I've seen. Pretty much neutral.

TaskManager wrote:

Pqwerty wrote:
Wait just a second...how do you know that Shadow is a milkman over a goon or an SK?
i don't
its a 33% or 50% probability, leaning to 50%, which is a considerable chance

This is a strange response tho.

I'll have a claim prepared by next day.

Pqwerty · 2020-06-08 04:22:33

Listen, I’m just trying to get to the bottom of this, okay? So let’s zoom out and you tell me if I understand this right. So, let’s start with the Gabe lynch.

TaskManager wrote:

NorwegianboyEE wrote:
I’d rather vote a scummy player than an inactive player. Lynches on inactives are bad and if it flips town basically gives us nothing to work with the next day. While i agree with voting for pressure on principle, we really don’t have enough time for that anymore and that is why i think we should rather be voting Andymakeer right now.
I'm down for lynching Andy because of the things that happened earlier today
On the other hand inactive players like Gabrielf shouldn't be carried into late game where every single player matters, so it is better that we discard him and players like him as soon as possible if he doesn't make up his mind and start participating in the game

TaskManager wrote:

Andymakeer wrote:
Too many potential deaths N1, if we accidentally lynch any town D1, PR or not, we'll be getting absolutely no information but also decreasing the pool as hell.
If we accidentally lynch a townie that's not the end of the world and we do gain information by analyzing connections the dead townie had with other members, this sometimes goes as far as confirming other player(s) to be townie(s) which reduces the pool of lynch candidates and brings us closer to winning

If I understand this correctly, you were okay with lynching Andy and you also thought Gabriel shouldn’t be carried into the late game because he’s lurking. You also say it would not be the worst thing to happen if we mislynched someone, so even if Andy ended up flipping town, we’d still be okay. So, my question was, “why didn’t you lynch Andy if you were down for lynching him?” You replied

TaskManager wrote:

i ended up not switching the vote to andy because the andy wagon was winning by quite a margin anyway

TaskManager wrote:

i was ready to vote either and would've switched to andy if that wagon lacked traction

So, correct me if I’m wrong, you didn’t lynch Andy because he was going to be lynched anyway? So, in some parallel universe where the Andy wagon didn’t get much traction, you would have switched your vote to Andy? Is it possible that you actually did this because you weren’t trying to draw any attention to yourself by changing your vote at the last minute, because you are either the vig or scum and neither of them wants attention? Or is that too big of an assumption?

Now, here’s my bigger question for you.

TaskManager wrote:

someone else like who?
we have a considerable chance of striking the milkman right now, doing so will literally deny mafia the possibility to recruit another player
if we sidetrack onto someone else today we
a) run a much higher risk of mislynching a townie
b) give mafia larger chances of using the milkman role
c) in the event that shadow dies and flips mafia, and i die and flip vigi (which is most likely whats going to happen), we have to spend another day pushing a wagon for luka, besides it gives him another day to lie himself out of it
if we resolve this today we
a) have a chance of taking the milk man out before they use their role
b) in the event that shadow flips mafia i can resolve the luka problem overnight
c) tomorrow we can hunt for SK/converted mafia

So, if we look back at this post, right, you say “we have a considerable chance of striking the milkman right now”. And this struck me as odd because my gut reaction was “why does this guy think Shadow is milkman? Is that some kind of insider information?” But as I said, both mafia wouldn’t claim and cc the vig slot. So, I asked you why you thought Shadow was the milkman, and you said

TaskManager wrote:

i don't
its a 33% or 50% probability, leaning to 50%, which is a considerable chance

I still don’t understand what you mean, but let’s see if I can piece this together. If we look at point b) for lynching Shadow today, you say that you can resolve the Luka problem. Is it safe to say you think Shadow and Luka are the mafia? And if you’re saying Shadow is the milkman, then are you saying that Luka is the goon? I feel like you’re trying to say that because you think Shadow is mafia, they have a 50% shot of being milkman. But I think my misunderstanding stems from the fact that you lean towards the 50%. How do you lean between two probabilities? Does that mean you think it’s more likely Shadow is mafia, and because of that, there’s probably a 50% chance of flipping mafia? Is that what you’re saying? Again, correct me if I’m wrong. I’m trying to understand so we can stop our chain of misunderstanding.

Norwee · 2020-06-08 08:27:41

@Pqwerty
Do you think Shadow is more likely to be mafia than Task?

Also... if we leave Task/Shadow both alive we can let the true vig kill the other, like you suggested. Assuming Shadow isn’t Milk man and we’re allowing him a recruit by doing so. That would be a decent strategy. Task can only be goon, because i don’t think milk man would make the risk of fake claiming here.

Norwee · 2020-06-08 08:30:37

Here’s an plan.
We let Shadow/Task both live. And ask them both to find the most likely candidate for their CC’s mafia teammate. And lynch whoever’s got the most convincing arguments.

Norwee · 2020-06-08 08:31:26

Or we just lynch whoever we ourselves find the most likely to be scum outside of those two.

Norwee · 2020-06-08 08:37:32

If Shadow was SK he’d have no point doing all this work to survive, because he would never make it to endgame now that cop has outed him as dangerous. SK!Task has no reason to CC either. So they can both only be Maf/vig. No other combination is likely.

Norwee · 2020-06-08 08:40:16

@Shadow
@Task

Who do you believe are the likely teammates to the confirmed mafia FYPOV?

Norwee · 2020-06-08 08:52:26

Andymakeer - Peace, ShadowsEdge, Pqwerty, NorwegianboyEE (4)
MrJawapa - Onjit (1)
Luka504 - MrJawapa (1)
Pqwerty - Buzzerbee (1)
Gabriellfs - TaskManager (1)

Not voting: Andymakeer, Luka504, gabriellfs, 2B55B5G TNG, AllenCaspe9510,

^This is the vote count yesterday. Sadly two confirmed town are not voting. Which gives less info to town (see why no lynch is a bad strategy?)
I’t does give something telling though. As i am sure at least ONE scum would be on the Andy wagon, and i can rule myself out. Shadow is looking worse. Task wasn’t on there. (He did voice support though)

Norwee · 2020-06-08 08:55:55

I’m willing to gambit on lynching Shadow over Task based on vote count analyzis. But am also willing to lynch outside. Up to everyone else’s opinion on the matter.

Luka504 · 2020-06-08 10:44:01

What would task gain by lying though? Shadow's been exposed and vigilante is the only role he can claim, so it makes sense for him to do so. If task is scum, then that means he's risking getting counterclaimed or shot the next night for a wagon that was likely going to succeed even had he not intervened. That doesn't make much sense.

Norwee · 2020-06-08 10:58:21

Yeah, i'm totally down for just lynching Shadow at this point. I highly doubt not a single one of two scum wouldn't be voting Andymakeer. And Shadow already is tagged as dangerous. So it makes a lot of sense for him to be scum there. I highly doubt it would be Pqwerty either way.

Norwee · 2020-06-08 11:00:24

I'm not sure if Task shooting Luka assuming Shadow flips scum is the best option though. Need to think about that.

Norwee · 2020-06-08 11:01:46

@Jawapa
@Taskmanager

How about shooting Buzzerbee? He's barely been playing, and only voting Pqwerty for bad reasons. I'd probably look at him as a likely scum or SK.

AllenCaspe9510, ShadowsEdge

AllenCaspe9510 · 2020-06-08 11:14:32

I agree on shooting buzzerbee. But I think I would save it for something else. Like luka

Minimania · 2020-06-08 11:15:04

16 hours and 38 minutes left

Norwee · 2020-06-08 13:31:27

What if it's Taskmanager/Luka504?

Norwee · 2020-06-08 13:45:38

Task:
- Voting Peace at the beginning of D1.
- Scumreading me for suggesting a townblock with Onjit/Pqwerty to lynch Luka.
- Null reads Luka504 in D1, but also defends Luka for little reason when i suggest voting him.
- Is generally, kinda scummy.
- Votes Gabriell for nothing reasons.
- Peace died. Advocated: "Peace was killed by SK" theory.

Luka:
- Voting Peace at the beginning of D1.
- Scumreading me for suggesting a townblock with Onjit/Pqwerty to lynch Luka.
- Doesn't even talk about Taskmanager in D1
- Is generally, kinda scummy.
- Votes Gabriell for nothing reasons.
- Peace died. Advocated: "Peace was killed by SK" theory.

Norwee · 2020-06-08 13:46:49

!Vote Luka504

Minimania

Norwee · 2020-06-08 13:49:18

Let's be honest here, if Task/Luka504 was a team they would 100% murder Peace. Even though there's little reason to do so strategically. Maybe that's why they were so desperate to talk about how "SK killed Peace!" when it's just as likely they killed 2B. In general, Luka's argument there made absolutely no sense. But Taskmanager still presented it as if it was a great argument.

mrjawapa

Luka504 · 2020-06-08 13:56:09

I think norboy is shadow's scum buddy.

Town norboy would have been up shadow's **** by now, but he keeps trying to stall for time so shadow could survive the lynch today.

Norwee · 2020-06-08 13:57:52

Is that the bwst you can come up with Luka? You didn’t even address my points.

mrjawapa · 2020-06-08 13:57:58

So I'm at work, thinking about this game.

Why would task counter claim shadow? Shadows wagon was already moving along.

Unless, I was right in the beginning... and norboy and task really are the mafia, which would explain some of the interactions between them.

Task/Norboy maf team?
Allen sk?

!vote taskmanager

Minimania

mrjawapa · 2020-06-08 13:59:02

vote count?

Norwee · 2020-06-08 14:00:01

Why would i be Tasks’s teammate lmao. I’m just fine voting him too. And in case you didn’t notice Jawapa. I just found a bunch of connections with Task and Luka.

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#451 2020-06-08 02:37:42

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#452 2020-06-08 02:38:04

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#453 2020-06-08 04:22:33

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#454 2020-06-08 08:27:41

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#455 2020-06-08 08:30:37

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#456 2020-06-08 08:31:26

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#457 2020-06-08 08:37:32

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#458 2020-06-08 08:40:16

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#459 2020-06-08 08:52:26

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#460 2020-06-08 08:55:55

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#461 2020-06-08 10:44:01

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#462 2020-06-08 10:58:21

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#463 2020-06-08 11:00:24

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#464 2020-06-08 11:01:46

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#465 2020-06-08 11:14:32

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#466 2020-06-08 11:15:04

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#467 2020-06-08 13:31:27

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#468 2020-06-08 13:45:38

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#469 2020-06-08 13:46:49

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!Vote Luka504

#470 2020-06-08 13:49:18

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#471 2020-06-08 13:56:09

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#472 2020-06-08 13:57:52

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#473 2020-06-08 13:57:58

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!vote taskmanager

#474 2020-06-08 13:59:02

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#475 2020-06-08 14:00:01

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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