Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

Minimania · 2020-06-03 01:14:16

Andymakeer wrote:

@crybaby can mafia/sk nokill?

Yes

Onjit · 2020-06-03 01:42:40

i think Narboy's on the money here, getting good vibes from him

my hunch is that pqwerty's leaning into the common strat that we see on this forum (ie relying on PRs to win the game) so i think he's wrong, but not necessarily scummy
i feel like luka/task are latching onto this idea as well, but i'm not sure how much of it is them not having experience with mafia outside this community, or how much is them trying to push this idea as it inherently causes more chaos/gives mafia more data

peace may have had a slip that he's SK in his response to my role claim, but it could be a typo/bad english idk

the reason my vote's on jawp is that i didn't like his response to my random vote on luka - seemed like he was posting from a place of having more information

Pqwerty · 2020-06-03 02:04:22

ShadowsEdge wrote:

Im gonna agree with Norwegian here, I dont think the cop strategy is a very smart strategy.Obviously it would confirm their results after they die, but it also brings up a variety of problems: if the Cop finds a dangerous person, it'll automatically out them as cop, since they'll know who a dangerous person is. And the alternative to combat that would just create more chaos, and wouldn't a good plan for that, which the alternative is to have people put dangerous in their "reads" as you put it, which would only create more chaos in terms of 1, who the real cop is, and 2, what people should believe.

Shouldn't the real cop claim anyway if they find a dangerous person? Is the cop supposed to stay hidden and hope they find a second danger AND survive 2 nights in a row against 3 killing roles?

ShadowsEdge wrote:

Furthermore, I think everyone claiming the exact same role will just cause a lot of confusion in terms of claims and counterclaims, in which the Mafia and Serial Killer can hide behind (As Norwegian pointed out previously) to push for mislynches, and even push for Cop kills or lynches.

Yeah but mafia and SK can hide behind VT claims just the same. Cop is just the new VT in this scenario, and there's more ways to scumhunt than just who claims what.

ShadowsEdge wrote:

Now let me explain why I personally think that everyone claiming VT is a good idea:You want everyone to appear as cop to hide the cop's cover, but if the "cops" investigate a mafia, and they appear as not dangerous, it'll lower the pool for who the cop is. With the alternative that everyone claims VT, there's no way for the mafia to narrow down who the Cops are, other than simple actions hinting at being a PR.

I mean, that's why it's so important that everyone claims Cop. The more cops, the harder it is to narrow it down. Also, if you're worried about bad inspects, just say one of your tr's is town or something. Again, with so many killing roles, scum doesn't have much time to find the cop before it either dies and confirms some people or it survives long enough to where it's just better for everyone to unclaim and just accept the confirms (I really think the former is going to happen).

ShadowsEdge wrote:

The only downside to everyone claiming PR is that the Cop cant reveal their investigations without putting themselves at risk. There's a risk to both of them, but I think that everyone claiming VT is a better solution, because it provides less drawbacks for us than would be with everyone claiming cop--For everyone claiming cop, I see two major downsides, being that it gives evils an easy cover and counterclaim if needed, and allows them to narrow down who the cop is by the "investigations" everyone puts out; In the VT situation, there's still a chance for Mafia to find out who the cops are, but it's not exact, and it doesnt allow the cop to claim as easily.

So, if we're looking at this from a pros and cons standpoint, you get guaranteed cop inspects from my strat, which I've said before is vital with all this carnage because the town pool will be small so every townconfirm is super helpful. The cons are: potentially outing the cop (which is okay because we still get the confirms even if the cop is dead, and the cop probably doesn't live long in this setup anyway), scum hiding behind cop claims (but that's the same as them hiding behind a VT claim).

I think the pros outweigh the cons here. Say there's 10 people alive tomorrow (3 die from D1 lynch and nk from sk and mafia), and then cop townconfirms someone D2, and then is one of the NK's night 2. There's 7 people left, one of them is townconfirmed and 4 of them are scum. That gives town a 4/6 chance of hitting scum D3. And that's if only towns die D1 and D2. And mafia wouldn't have the majority D3 because it would be 3 mafia out of 7 townies total. They can lynch a mafia and get a vig kill. Like even worst case scenario in my plan, the town has room for comebacks. That's how vital townconfirms are and you can't do that if cop's inspects are supressed.

Norwee · 2020-06-03 02:08:04

What if a town confirm get’s recruited?

Norwee · 2020-06-03 02:11:16

Milk man can only recruit from night 2 according to role card.
@Crybaby Can mafia do a kill and recruit at the same time?

Minimania · 2020-06-03 02:15:13

The Milk Man has two abilities of which they may only choose one. The Mafia Goon only has one. Provided both survive to Night 2, the Mafia Goon may kill a target and the Milk Man may convert a target within the same night.

Norwee · 2020-06-03 02:17:17

That’s pretty OP. They can cult a traitor that won’t flip mafia and murder all in the span of a single night. So leaving Milk Man alive is bad news for town if he get’s around to N2.

ShadowsEdge · 2020-06-03 03:05:52

Pqwerty wrote:

Shouldn't the real cop claim anyway if they find a dangerous person? Is the cop supposed to stay hidden and hope they find a second danger AND survive 2 nights in a row against 3 killing roles?

This really depends on the person, and the situation. Some Cops tend to wait until finding multiple evils, that way they don't out themselves, and can out a multitude of evils all at once, thus making mafia killing them mostly mute, since it just confirms that what the Cop said is true. Moreover, Cop investigations aren't "guaranteed" to find an evil at the moment. They only find dangerous people, which the Vigilante counts as until they shoot. If they investigate the Vigilante before they shoot, they could accidentally out them, in which the mafia could convert them or kill them right then and there. I'm aware of the implications of investigating others, but it could be a dangerous game if the Cop ends up outting the Vigilante. Which might make it better to out their results on N3, if applicable, since that would give the Vigilante more time to shoot, and thus make converting or killing them almost useless.

Pqwerty wrote:

Yeah but mafia and SK can hide behind VT claims just the same. Cop is just the new VT in this scenario, and there's more ways to scumhunt than just who claims what.

The point is the amount of confusion and opportunity it brings up for the Mafia and SK. With everyone claiming VT, it's clean and easy to understand, even though evils can hide behind that too. With everyone claiming cop, everyone would be posting night results, claiming people are not dangerous (hopefully, since randomly claiming people as Dangerous would, ironically, be dangerous), and it would create a lot of confusion on whom to believe. It is still easy to disregard the claims, but it would still be a higher level of confusion than just claiming VT. The levels of confusion are what the Mafia and SK can exploit, whether it be trusting the "cop" claims to push themselves and innocent, or hiding behind the guise to push people as dangerous, and even push the Cop to death if applicable.

There's also still the possibility that if people get their reads wrong, it will reveal who isn't truly a cop, and thus will lower the player count of who the Cop is, thus making it more likely that the Cop will be killed.

Pqwerty wrote:

I mean, that's why it's so important that everyone claims Cop. The more cops, the harder it is to narrow it down. Also, if you're worried about bad inspects, just say one of your tr's is town or something. Again, with so many killing roles, scum doesn't have much time to find the cop before it either dies and confirms some people or it survives long enough to where it's just better for everyone to unclaim and just accept the confirms (I really think the former is going to happen).

I think you misunderstood the point of that section. I explained it briefly above, but I'll elaborate. Say one of the fake cops investigates the Goon, and says they appeared as Not Dangerous. Automatically, that person is confirmed to the mafia to not be the Cop. And instantaneously the pool of 10 people (Assuming this happens on D2, where one person dies), lowers to 9. Now imagine this happens more, with people accidentally claiming that the Milk Man is Not Dangerous, or more claiming the Goon is Not Dangerous, the pool would be lowered to a smaller pool in which they would be able to have an easier chance at determining who the Cop is.

With the VT claims, no one is posting fake results, and thus, the only way for the Mafia to find the Cop before they claim is the old fashioned PR reading, which at that isn't accurate.

Pqwerty wrote:

So, if we're looking at this from a pros and cons standpoint, you get guaranteed cop inspects from my strat, which I've said before is vital with all this carnage because the town pool will be small so every townconfirm is super helpful. The cons are: potentially outing the cop (which is okay because we still get the confirms even if the cop is dead, and the cop probably doesn't live long in this setup anyway), scum hiding behind cop claims (but that's the same as them hiding behind a VT claim).

Going off of what Norwegian said, that could be a downfall for us, since the Milkman could simply wait for the cop to die, confirm towns, and convert a confirmed town. The Cop is more so useful if they find dangerous people after the Vigilante has shot, since there's no real way to know if someone has been converted. We have to take everything with a grain of salt, and going off of all the people the Cop gets as Not Dangerous at face value could very well allow the Mafia to win. Personally, I think the Cop should lay low, and not draw attention to themself, similar to how the strat is for many games, in which they reveal when they have sufficient information to out someone as evil. And in the VT scenario, the Nurse could easily add a guise in which they protect the Cop on random nights, in which the Mafia wouldn't know when to protect them. (This plan relies on the Nurse not revealing when they protect the Cop, or faking when they reveal the cop to trick the Mafia). In the Cop scenario, the Nurse cant narrow down who the Cop is to a singular person, so they would only be grabbing at straws to try and keep the real cop safe, while the Mafia and SK can narrow it down to a set of people, and thus kill them off.

I dont think the pros outweigh the cons here, there's a lot of drawbacks to the plan, which only benefit the evils, and I think that pushing for everyone to claim cop could end up shooting ourselves in the foot.

ShadowsEdge · 2020-06-03 03:07:47

ShadowsEdge wrote:

in which the Mafia wouldn't know when to protect them.

My bad, I meant this as "The Mafia wouldn't know when the Nurse would protect them" and thus they wouldn't know when a safe night to attack them is, unless they risk two nights to kill said cop.

Pqwerty · 2020-06-03 03:52:15

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

What if a town confirm get’s recruited?

So, about 3 people get killed each day/night cycle, so we probably have about 4 days to solve the game.

If the mafia decides to convert the townconfirm, they have N2 and N3 to convert them. Townconfirms are universally bad for scum, so even if the mafia decide to keep the townconfirm, the SK would want it dead. Because the nurse can't double protect, the SK would probably end up killing it. And even if it did survive, wouldn't it be really weird for a townconfirm to survive 2 nights in a row when both scum teams benefit from it being dead? People would probably get suspicious and lynch it D4. I know I'd lynch it.

Basically, the townconfirm would get wrecked by the SK or the town in the late game, so it's not a great convert.

Are there any other questions?

AllenCaspe9510 · 2020-06-03 03:52:54

I claim cop, I went out early in the morning and found out that I got no results

Pqwerty · 2020-06-03 04:19:00

Listen guys, we have like 4 days to do this and we can't afford to let the cop lay low and die.

Why is 9 fake inspects with 1 real one so chaotic? It's 10 posts.

Pqwerty · 2020-06-03 04:44:02

Also, I get that fake reads give the mafia information, but the thing is I don't think it gives the mafia enough information in time, and also, as I've said before, as long as the cop doesn't die n1, then people are going to get confirmed regardless of the cop living or dying.

2b55b5g · 2020-06-03 05:04:56

Actually, isn’t it better if we all claim VT and post our reads lol. It’s very easy for the cop to out themselves if we all claim it. The real cop can claim VT and try to push for dangerous people they investigated in their reads. If the cop ended up dying, we can rely on their reads.

mrjawapa

Pqwerty · 2020-06-03 05:41:18

2B55B5G TNG wrote:

Actually, isn’t it better if we all claim VT and post our reads lol. It’s very easy for the cop to out themselves if we all claim it. The real cop can claim VT and try to push for dangerous people they investigated in their reads. If the cop ended up dying, we can rely on their reads.

I mean, let's look at how hard it is for the cop to out itself and let's say it survived N1.
There's 10 people left, 2 of them are mafia.
Someone gets lynched D2, now they have a 1/7 chance of hitting cop.
If someone screws up their read, they reduce the odds to 1/6 or 1/5.
But my question is:
Does going from a ~14% chance of randomly hitting cop to a 20% chance of hitting cop N2 really mean that cop outed itself? And if the mafia and SK are still alive, isn't the cop just lucky to be alive D3? Cuz like, there's only going to be like 6 or 7 people left alive D3.
I feel like it'd be better to get explicit inspect results than trying to dig them out of reads. But maybe that's just me.

I thought this plan was pretty standard because I found it on some mafia website and I didn't expect so much backlash. I honestly thought we'd be done with this by now.

Also, can Jawapa, Peace, and BuzzerBee please respond to my questions?

Norwee · 2020-06-03 07:53:39

Do you have any actual reads Pqwerty?
I think you’re most likely town for pushing this idea, we should townblock.
Onjit, you are also invited.

Onjit · 2020-06-03 08:26:56

What do you mean by "townblock"?

Norwee · 2020-06-03 08:29:43

A voting block of people that townread each other.

Onjit · 2020-06-03 08:52:56

ah gotcha

Norwee · 2020-06-03 09:06:33

Vote Luka with me.

Luka504 · 2020-06-03 09:41:32

Oh, we've entered the wall of text phase of the game. Great.

I've been researching the hypo strategy more (and by that I mean I read two mafiascum topics) as well as reading through Shadow and Pqwerty's debate to get a better idea of how good of a strategy this is. Ultimately I still think it can work, because the mafia can't just snipe someone who's on the right track as they're never sure of whether that someone is just bluffing. It'd look mighty suspicious if they only killed the people who are correct, so they'd have to kill off other people to try and throw us off. But considering the general unwillingness for most people to go along with it, it lowers the probability of a non-cop correctly guessing on the first couple of nights, making it no longer as viable.

Ultimately, Norboy rubs me the wrong way. Even though he fought against the hypo strategy, I considered his replies to my interrogation perfectly reasonable and even town-like. But I feel like Norwegianboy should know better than trying to form a townblock so early in the game, when information is scarce and unreliable. The way I see it, the earlier a townblock is formed, the more likely it is scum had created it, and because the bonds which tied the players together are weaker (thanks to having rushed the formation of said townblock), the bonds are more easily shattered as well.

I consider Pqwerty and Onjit to be town, as well. I think pqwerty is putting in too much effort for this to be a LAMIST strategy, and onjit seems to be his usual cool yet reasonable self. And the fact that they're likely town makes Norboy's attempt to group them with himself all the more sketchy.

BuzzerBee · 2020-06-03 09:47:53

!vote Pqwerty

Massclaiming on these forums has always proven to go wrong and even with that aside, everyone claiming cop is pointless and will only confuse actual claims later on when we need them.

Also in this post Pqwerty why are you trying to interrogate people for posts that weren't even that deep. And less than six hours later say "Will you please respond to my questions?" like it's day 1 why are you trying to already push things so hard

Norwee · 2020-06-03 10:30:44

Luka504 wrote:

I consider Pqwerty and Onjit to be town, as well. I think pqwerty is putting in too much effort for this to be a LAMIST strategy, and onjit seems to be his usual cool yet reasonable self. And the fact that they're likely town makes Norboy's attempt to group them with himself all the more sketchy.

It's sketchy for me to ask my townreads to vote someone i don't townread? How so?

Norwee · 2020-06-03 10:35:31

Onjit said he TR's me and i TR him too so i'm suggesting we vote together to have a stronger unified voice. Saying that's something to be suspicious about sounds like what someone who doesn't have town's best interests in mind would say.

AllenCaspe9510 · 2020-06-03 10:35:44

BuzzerBee wrote:

Massclaiming on these forums has always proven to go wrong and even with that aside

Wasn't he just trying to pervent milkman from converting a cop? Mafia cop may be a serious threat if the cop himself has his bullets preservered.
Unless cop chooses to spend his 2 bullets on his first 2 nights

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