mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

TaskManager · 2019-10-29 00:03:18

mutantdevle wrote:

I wasn't making you out to be hypocritical. Your point was flawed due to ignorance - there was no hypocrisy about it. Just like again you've been ignorant (probably intentionally) of relativity. Sure, 13 hours is not a long time to have gained votes in. But it is longer compared to norwegianboy. People were more hesitant about voting you. This shows that people care about you more than they do norwegianboy. By lynching you, we gain more information than we would from lynching norwegianboy. My entire point this whole time is that, based on wagon composition, you are more likely to be scum than norwegianboy is.

So you're only saying people are hesitant to vote me only because my wagon gained votes slower?
That's.. cheap
And you have to factor in more stuff
Like people taking Norboy's wagon more as a joke because of the whole Doctor thing
Also time zones

mutantdevle wrote:

I've not criticised you for your voting, so it's odd that you've brought this up. Though personally I do not excuse your vote from being indicative of your alignment just because you claim it's a joke. The only person I'm really willing to ignore the votes of is proc since he's been on all 3 wagons (if we include the initial wagon on Onjit) for seemingly meme-y reasons. Actually, thinking about it, I think proc being on all those wagons is probably a slight indication that he's town.

I'm saying that, while I don't know what were other people's opinions on the Norboy wagon, I perceived it as a joke, and I believe so did other people that hopped on it, or at least some of them

TaskManager · 2019-10-29 00:05:50

mutantdevle wrote:

ZeldaXD wrote:
No, everyone is still super because every townie but Onjit have abilities that help town if used correctly, depriving ourselves from such abilities is detrimental to town. What if we accidentally lynch a cop today? Tomorrow instead of 3 cops with info we will have 2. We risk more by lynching today.
TaskManager isn't a cop. If we lynch him there's 0 risk of lynching a cop. In fact, he's claimed that he's a roleblocker. So he's either a town roleblocker or a scum roleblocker. Either way, he runs the risk of preventing a cop from getting their result. So if you want to factor in the value of each role, task looks like a pretty good lynch from that angle too.

Since we have 3 cops, why not let them check both of us?
Coordinating investigations would be difficult, yes, but we could hope each of them picked the one of us that other cop didn't

Onjit · 2019-10-29 00:09:27

for the record, my wagon was half random, half a joke, and half wanting to dunk on task

mutantdevle · 2019-10-29 00:18:06

TaskManager wrote:

mutantdevle wrote:
Do you not have anything to say about the numerous people who are only voting for you because Onjit told them to?
I don't know
Do you?

Yes.

Non-hesitators:
Luka was voting norwegianboy before switching to you without much hesitation. If you are mafia then that gives me no reason not to believe Luka when he says his votes were joke votes. If you are town then whilst I think that would make luka slightly suspicious the fact that he was on all 3 wagons would suggest to me that his votes were probably all jokes.
Jawapa did not hesitate to vote you as well. If you are town this makes jawapa look suspicious. If you are scum then that gives jawapa some town credit though I don't consider it impossible that he'd bus.
Kirby also changed from norwegianboy to you when Onjit said to do so. So if you are town, Kirby is also highly suspicious. If you are scum then, unlike jawapa who never voted norwegianboy, I don't think Kirby deserves any town credit for following the crowd.
Proc when straight from voting Onjit to voting for you. If you are town then I again think that indicates proc being opportunistic scum. Like jawapa, he never voted norwegianboy so if you are mafia then I think that indicates proc being town.

These people are the main ones who I think would look scummiest if you flipped town. That's not to say, however, that they are necessarily all scum or that there'd be no scum in the later part of the wagon.

Hesitators:
Crybaby did intend to vote for you but eventually decided not to. Him considering it is the important bit. If you are scum, then I think he would be scum also.
2B55 expressed an interest in the wagon but ultimately declared that he'd only join it at the end. Similarly to Crybaby, if you are scum then I think that makes 2B55 quite scummy. Though, if you are town, I still think that kind of stance from 2B55 could still come from scum.
Norwegianboy only decided to vote for you after I had expressed my own reasoning for joining the wagon despite being present and engaged with the game beforehand. I think it's very likely that if you are scum then he was bussing you. Him then changing his mind to no lynch once consensus turns away from you just reinforces that.

Likewise, you being scum would not necessarily make all of these people scum nor does it mean that all the non-hesitators aren't scum.

Do you notice a pattern here? Every single one of my thoughts on these players cannot be determined unless you flip. If you aren't lynched then all I can do is speculate on these thoughts based on my read of you.

TaskManager wrote:

It didn't seem to bother you when you cast the vote
And on the other hand you're still arguing that people hesitate hopping on this wagon
Pick a side, dude

Reading the people already on the wagon is a large part of why I want to lynch you as I believe there are conclusions to be made about them regardless of your flip. That was something I expressed before this post so why would you think it would bother me? My points about the hesitation was not a criticism of anyone currently, it was an assessment of things that happened in the past. I'm not entirely sure what 'sides' your referring to or what one you think I'm on?

mutantdevle · 2019-10-29 00:18:59

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

Oh are people actually starting to take the game serious now?

Isn't this like the 3rd time you've said something like this?

Processor · 2019-10-29 00:20:59

The only true wagon that I was on was the TaskManager one, which still exists...

Our oneshot docs can prove a roleclaim if they decide to roleclaim (PLEASE DONT YET).
The oneshot docs are also arguably the weakest role. A roleclaim puts all the other roles at risk, let's avoid that.
Any mafia will end up roleclaiming cop, vig or roleblocker.

Cop results are 100% verifiable.
Cops should report any mafia results they get and stay silent when they find townies.
Any mafia that makes a false positive cop investigation claim can be lynched / shot.
A positive result does not confirm town, as mafia can sacrifice one another.

It might be a good idea to kill no one and wait for our cops to churn through the list of players, 3 players at a time.

We need a synchronization strategy so our cops don't pick the same person every turn....
For the first round, we can do: every cop investigates the person BELOW themselves.

If I did my math right (1-5/13*5/12*5/11 = 0.93), there's a 93% chance that we find our first mafia this way, assuming no cop is killed/roleblocked N1.

Processor · 2019-10-29 00:22:55

Processor wrote:

For the first round, we can do: every cop investigates the person BELOW themselves.

Take the userlist for this. However, leave Onjit out.

2. norweg
3. mutant
4. task
5. crybaby
6. 2b
7. luka
8. daneeko
9. bimps
10. kira
11. mrjawapa
12. zelda
13. eleizabeth
14. proc
15. kirby

mrjawapa, 2b55b5g

mutantdevle · 2019-10-29 00:24:31

TaskManager wrote:

So you're only saying people are hesitant to vote me only because my wagon gained votes slower?
That's.. cheap
And you have to factor in more stuff
Like people taking Norboy's wagon more as a joke because of the whole Doctor thing
Also time zones

No, I'm saying people were hesitant to vote you because people made posts that expressed a hesitance to vote you...

I have factored in people taking norwegianboy's wagon as more of a joke and my conclusion is that I don't think it's a strong enough factor to disregard my stance on the two wagons.

Time zones were not something I had previously considered so I'm glad you pointed it out. However, timezones don't really play too much of a role in what happened in this context but rather they just give us an explanation as to why those who did not have any input on the wagon had that lack of input.

mutantdevle · 2019-10-29 00:35:02

TaskManager wrote:

Since we have 3 cops, why not let them check both of us?

Well, yeah, if you survive this day then I'd 100% want you checked. But I don't see why I should rely on a PR outing themselves/wasting a night checking something we could resolve today especially when there are no other decent lynch candidates as far as I'm concerned. This sentiment is the perfect solution if we agreed that the optimum strategy was to no lynch but I don't think that no lynching is something anyone should aim for (and I don't recall you advocating for a no lynch either). By day 2 I'd expect my alignment to be confirmed to at least one person and my role to be known to the mafia anyway so if you don't get lynched today (let's be honest, a lack of majority is the most likely scenario the way things are currently going) then I'd be pretty miffed if I didn't at least get to know your alignment the next day.

mutantdevle · 2019-10-29 00:39:24

Proc, your plan is brilliant but there's 1 flaw with it.

From the signup thread:

peace wrote:

EDIT: oops i frogot to tell whihc cops the town get as the town coudld either get an faction cop or an role cop (know only town/mafia or know the rolecard because of this i will make that random so it are 3 random cops either faction or role cop faction coponly knows if the player is mafia or town role cop get sto know the role card saying the role name and the faction

Translation: each cop will be randomly decided (presumably 50/50) to be a role cop or a faction cop.

I don't think you'd fake not knowing this so the logic you have behind your plan makes me think you are town.

TaskManager · 2019-10-29 00:56:11

Processor wrote:

Processor wrote:
For the first round, we can do: every cop investigates the person BELOW themselves.
Take the userlist for this. However, leave Onjit out.
2. norweg
3. mutant
4. task
5. crybaby
6. 2b
7. luka
8. daneeko
9. bimps
10. kira
11. mrjawapa
12. zelda
13. eleizabeth
14. proc
15. kirby

I don't like that userlist because Norboy is on on top thus he avoids being checked by cops
Unless the list wraps around and cop!Kirby investigates Norboy, then that's fair

mutantdevle wrote:

TaskManager wrote:
Since we have 3 cops, why not let them check both of us?
Well, yeah, if you survive this day then I'd 100% want you checked. But I don't see why I should rely on a PR outing themselves/wasting a night checking something we could resolve today especially when there are no other decent lynch candidates as far as I'm concerned. This sentiment is the perfect solution if we agreed that the optimum strategy was to no lynch but I don't think that no lynching is something anyone should aim for (and I don't recall you advocating for a no lynch either). By day 2 I'd expect my alignment to be confirmed to at least one person and my role to be known to the mafia anyway so if you don't get lynched today (let's be honest, a lack of majority is the most likely scenario the way things are currently going) then I'd be pretty miffed if I didn't at least get to know your alignment the next day.

Yeah, no.
I want you checked too cause you're ranking high on my scumlist rn

A way to ensure we're both investigated N1 would be to have odd numbered cops investigate me, and even numbered cops investigate you, or vice versa
However that has an 1/8th chance of failure (all 3 cops being odd or even) aaaand we're wasting the 3rd cop's night action basically, so I'm not sure

TaskManager · 2019-10-29 00:58:10

mutantdevle wrote:

Proc, your plan is brilliant but there's 1 flaw with it.
From the signup thread:
peace wrote:
EDIT: oops i frogot to tell whihc cops the town get as the town coudld either get an faction cop or an role cop (know only town/mafia or know the rolecard because of this i will make that random so it are 3 random cops either faction or role cop faction coponly knows if the player is mafia or town role cop get sto know the role card saying the role name and the faction
Translation: each cop will be randomly decided (presumably 50/50) to be a role cop or a faction cop.

I don't think you'd fake not knowing this so the logic you have behind your plan makes me think you are town.

oh ****
but.. that doesn't hurt the plan does it?
a role cop will be able to tell the faction based on rolecard result too:

pceae wrote:

or town role cop get sto know the role card saying the role name and the faction

mrjawapa · 2019-10-29 01:02:19

Processor wrote:

Processor wrote:
For the first round, we can do: every cop investigates the person BELOW themselves.
Take the userlist for this. However, leave Onjit out.
2. norweg
3. mutant
4. task
5. crybaby
6. 2b
7. luka
8. daneeko
9. bimps
10. kira
11. mrjawapa
12. zelda
13. eleizabeth
14. proc
15. kirby

I was about to argue this list, until I realized it was the same list from the OP.

Processor · 2019-10-29 01:31:22

Also my math was wrong: 1-8/13*7/12*6/11 = 80%

I am confused mutantdevle, because in the first post in this thread mentions 3 town cops... hmmmm

Onjit · 2019-10-29 02:27:13

€vote task

Minimania · 2019-10-29 05:24:16

Sorry about my outburst.

Given clues coming from what I've been reading in the thread, I feel like I know the roles of three people besides TaskManager who claimed and Onjit who is confirmed, and I won't disclose any more information than that.

Norwegianboy, could you explain to me why you wanted me to come out with my theory about Kira's role?

Processor

rat · 2019-10-29 07:16:26

Processor wrote:

@eleizibeth: Do you support voting for TaskManager? Why? Why not?

hi this is late but i would like to say that i do and i don't support lynching task because of These Here Reasons:
yes because
- we'll get more info if we lynch /someone/
- he is looking a little sus to me.... but.........

no because
- if town, he is (prob) a PR, and also mislynches are bad

i would also like to reference this post

Norwee · 2019-10-29 08:25:19

Crybaby wrote:

Norwegianboy, could you explain to me why you wanted me to come out with my theory about Kira's role?

???
I never asked you to disclose your theory on Kira...

Minimania · 2019-10-29 08:32:29

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

Who is Kira?

peace · 2019-10-29 08:39:07

peace wrote:

peace wrote:
peace wrote:
vote counts:
norweg [2] bimps, kira
task [5] jawapa, kirby, proc, mutant, onjit [L-3]
jawapa: [1] kira
mutant: [1] task
endday [2] zelda, norweg
about ~44 hours remain

Norwee · 2019-10-29 09:14:28

No i meant that more like i have literally no idea who this "Kira" person is.

TaskManager · 2019-10-29 10:04:31

10/10

2b55b5g · 2019-10-29 11:00:48

???

I said I would join the Endday wagon if I have no idea, not the Task wagon.

2b55b5g · 2019-10-29 11:08:51

And Mutant are you sure that every person in the ‘hesitant or non-hesitant’ list can’t be determined without Task lynched? For me it seemed like you think I’m a scum lol

I support Mutant’s point about Task’s wagon being hesitant though, but I think we shouldn’t lynch Task because he roleclaimed as a roleblocker, so to be safe we shouldn’t lynch him.

My stance now is to end day, because I think we can rely on the cops, plus I don’t really have an idea on who to vote.

Minimania · 2019-10-29 11:42:12

2B55B5G TNG wrote:

My stance now is to end day, because I think we can rely on the cops, plus I don’t really have an idea on who to vote.

We don't know how many of the cops are actually alignment or faction cops yet, that's the thing

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#251 2019-10-29 00:03:18

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#252 2019-10-29 00:05:50

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#253 2019-10-29 00:09:27

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#254 2019-10-29 00:18:06

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#255 2019-10-29 00:18:59

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#256 2019-10-29 00:20:59

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#257 2019-10-29 00:22:55

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#258 2019-10-29 00:24:31

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#259 2019-10-29 00:35:02

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#260 2019-10-29 00:39:24

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#261 2019-10-29 00:56:11

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#262 2019-10-29 00:58:10

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#263 2019-10-29 01:02:19

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#264 2019-10-29 01:31:22

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#265 2019-10-29 02:27:13

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

€vote task

#266 2019-10-29 05:24:16

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#267 2019-10-29 07:16:26

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#268 2019-10-29 08:25:19

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#269 2019-10-29 08:32:29

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#270 2019-10-29 08:39:07

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#271 2019-10-29 09:14:28

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#272 2019-10-29 10:04:31

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#273 2019-10-29 11:00:48

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#274 2019-10-29 11:08:51

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

#275 2019-10-29 11:42:12

Re: mafia 34 maf gave up town wins

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