Mafia 22 [Loaf and Sangas Win]

Different55 · 2019-04-20 15:22:22

Whether or not we lynch today someone we might want to talk about who we should lynch or maybe just whether we should lynch or not. Otherwise D2 will have barely any more info than D1.

Different55 · 2019-04-20 15:24:50

Also I can't quite remember but in a previous game somebody said that like mathematically either lynching or not lynching D1 was statistically more likely to have a better outcome for town. I'm not having any luck finding it, anybody else?

Zumza · 2019-04-20 15:37:42

D1 lynches are usually good. It is also good to have an odd number of players each day.
I for myself, am a fan of lynching inactive players and lynch-hoping players, as they're more likely to be scum.

Schlog · 2019-04-20 17:13:29

hi im schlog

mutantdevle · 2019-04-20 19:45:58

Lynching today is very advisable, (statistically better as diff has said).

I think it's best that instead of just saying this, I should instead prove why.

First of all, we have to understand the sentiment that in mafia you should always be aiming to keep the number of players at an odd number. The first reason for this is that it is harder to achieve a lynch with an even number of players. 6 is the majority needed to lynch with 11 players. If only 1 person dies (night kill) then that's 10 players. 5 votes would be half the votes. Half is not a majority. So the vote requirement would still be 6. 6 votes on the same person is harder to achieve with 10 people than 5 votes is to achieve with 9. It's simply fewer people needed to agree. So by not lynching today, we increase the chances that we are unable to make a decision or lynch tomorrow.

Secondly, In order for the mafia to win, they need to gain majority. In order for this to occur, 3 townies (or people not in the mafia faction) must be lynched at any point in the game. If all 3 townies are lynched in a row then they win on day 3. If 1 mafia is lynched in between, they win on day 4. If 2 mafia are lynched, they'd win on day 5. But here's the thing, the mafia still (technically) wins if they make up exactly half of the people alive. (eg. 3 mafias vs 3 non-mafia). Why? Because there is (technically) nothing stopping them from winning. Or at least, there is a very low chance of stopping them from winning. With an even number of people, half of which are mafia, you'd need at least 1 mafia to join the wagon in order to get a mafia member lynched. If they don't join the wagon, you simply can't kill them. The only way to counter this is to both vig kill a member of the mafia AND prevent their kill in the same night. Otherwise, you'd have to kill 1 mafia member OR block their kill every single night thereafter to achieve a draw at best. These unlikely odds of survival can be prevented entirely if we never have an even number of players. And due to mafia being able to win with an even number of players, whenever we no lynch whilst on an odd number of players, it still counts as 1/3 townies they need to lynch in order to win. The only time we should no lynch is if we are on an even number of players because we don't lose anything by not lynching.

So in conclusion, no lynching with an odd number of players still counts as having lynched someone but with the extra negatives of giving us less information to base our next vote on whilst also making it functionally harder to achieve the lynch.

mutantdevle · 2019-04-20 19:57:11

Personally, I think that, based on past EE mafia games, we should be looking to lynch players that we don't think will be very active on day 1. (And on days where we can't decide on who to lynch, it should default to inactive people). The simple reason for this is that if people aren't talking and giving their opinions then there isn't much we can do to figure out what alignment they are.

As such, my current suggestions for the day 1 lynch are:

TaskManager (Yet to post) > Schlog (1 post of little substance and I doubt they'd be too active) > Freckleface (1 post of little substance) > Crybaby (1 post of little substance but they are generally more active on the forums) > MrJawapa (1 post but has substance).

mutantdevle · 2019-04-20 19:58:52

I'd also like other people to make a list on who they'd prefer to lynch based on the posts so far (however low content the posts so far have been).

Schlog · 2019-04-20 20:41:05

!lynch Onjit

mrjawapa · 2019-04-20 21:33:25

mutantdevle wrote:

I'd also like other people to make a list on who they'd prefer to lynch based on the posts so far (however low content the posts so far have been).

Yes, lets lynch people based on **** posts.

D1 lynch is stupid. It's completely random. Wait until D2, where someone should have information. Plus, the first person to toss a random vote gets tagged as scum.

mutantdevle wrote:

TaskManager (Yet to post) > Schlog (1 post of little substance and I doubt they'd be too active) > Freckleface (1 post of little substance) > Crybaby (1 post of little substance but they are generally more active on the forums) > MrJawapa (1 post but has substance).

Where's Kirby, Diff, the dude with numbers, norwegianboy, and zumza? They've all posted.

Freckleface

Schlog · 2019-04-20 22:05:32

im gonna have to agree with jawapa, lynching people on the first day usually does nothing other than keep someone from playing the game

as least wait until something happens

Minimania · 2019-04-21 04:16:09

!endday

2b55b5g · 2019-04-21 04:53:08

!endday

mrjawapa · 2019-04-21 05:08:47

With the hope that someone will release their info, instead of keeping it a secret until the end of the game...

!endgame

Freckleface · 2019-04-21 05:28:26

!endday

Schlog · 2019-04-21 05:56:49

!endday

Kirby · 2019-04-21 06:23:06

sure i suppose

!endday

Onjit · 2019-04-21 06:30:24

Day 1 has been ended by popular demand.

Night 1 has now started. Please PM me your night actions if you wish to use them.
Night 1 will end in around 24 hours.

Onjit · 2019-04-22 08:27:06

Night 1 ends, and there is one less player. It was NorwegianBoyEE that was eliminated. He was the Tongs

Day 2 begins now. It will end in 72 hours, or when there is a majority [6] of votes.

Please use either !lynch <player> or !endday on a separate line.

▼Tongs

Norwee · 2019-04-22 08:32:58

Oof, i am dead. And dead men don't talk, so i'm not saying anything. RIP

2b55b5g · 2019-04-22 09:30:54

Damn it, we lost one of the good people

Different55 · 2019-04-22 13:01:56

I'm not sure how you guys ended the day so quickly but I really don't think that was a good idea. We're only robbing ourselves of time that way.

2B55B5G TNG wrote:

Damn it, we lost one of the good people

What did you expect would happen N1?

2b55b5g, mutantdevle, Zumza, Onjit

2b55b5g · 2019-04-22 13:24:08

Maybe we still don’t want to lynch anyone today. If only one person is killed in N2, then we have an odd number of people.

mutantdevle · 2019-04-22 13:41:53

Everyone who decided it was a good idea to end the day early, hence robbing us of time to talk and get more content out of people, is scummy. And I suspect there is definitely multiple scum among those who voted for that as there is 0 town motivation behind wanting us to have less time to talk. If y'all want to stupidly make the case for a no lynch then, by all means, argue for that. But there is no reason to end the day early. Just let the time run out. Let us at least have to time to talk about our options. Because once all the time in the day is over, there is a no lynch anyway. There is no need to take away the time we have.

Zumza, 2b55b5g, Different55

Zumza · 2019-04-22 13:58:27

Regarding today's Tongs's death:

▼Overused meme

---

It was extremely foolish what happened yesterday.
What the heck were you thinking? If no one has any leads then we should call the day off? This is not a speed game. This might last weeks. If you're not committed to that, you should allow those replacements fill in the spot for you.

What about the old formats when town had just 2, 3 PR roles? What about when no one got no-leads? Call if the night and expect a rolling dice to find out the scums?

You must speak, share your opinions. The lesser contribution we have during the day, the lesser is our chance of surviving.

---

!prod TaskManager

mutantdevle, 2b55b5g

mutantdevle · 2019-04-22 14:05:26

!lynch mrjawapa

mrjawapa wrote:

Yes, lets lynch people based on **** posts.

I don't think you understand how this game works at all. How do you honestly expect to understand people's alignments if they don't give their opinions on other people's posts? Having people give their opinions on basically nothing can be very telling. If person A only has 1 post consisting of nothing, and person B says that person A is town. Then if person B later flips as mafia, then that gives us something to work on in regard to figuring out person A's alignment. Furthermore, **** can also give us information. If someone is only ****, then that tells us they don't really care about figuring out people's alignments.

mrjawapa wrote:

D1 lynch is stupid. It's completely random. Wait until D2, where someone should have information. Plus, the first person to toss a random vote gets tagged as scum.

A day 1 lynch is not completely random simply because the mafia know who the other mafia are. As a result, they are less likely to vote for someone who is mafia. Alternatively, they are far more likely to instantly jump on the wagon of someone who is town and get them lynched with relative ease. Day 1 lynches are not stupid. They give us information. They tells us the alignment of the player who is killed. There is a chance we lynch scum which we need to do to actually win the game. Alternatively, they could be town. If they are town, we can then look at who was and wasn't on the wagon and question them. What reason did they have to be on this wagon? We can also question the people who didn't vote for them. Did someone seem really against the wagon for no reason at all?

We're now on day 2 and, as a collective, we have nothing new to work with. Do you honestly expect people to claim their roles and tell us what they know? Do you really think that information is going to at all be helpful? I very much doubt it. No one gave their opinion on norwegianboy. So we can't criticise or praise anyone for their thoughts on his alignment. But when you have a wagon to lynch someone, you can. Because people are forced to give their opinions, at the very least through the form of a vote.

And as for being accused of being scum for throwing in the first random vote - well that would get the conversation started, wouldn't it? From there, you can ask: who agrees? why do you think they are scum for making the first vote? was the vote truly random? Etc. Besides, on sites dedicated to mafia, almost everyone's first post is a random vote. And you can sure as hell bet they lynch on day 1.

mrjawapa wrote:

Where's Kirby, Diff, the dude with numbers, norwegianboy, and zumza? They've all posted.

You really shouldn't criticise someone without properly reading their post... smh. They were my suggestions for who to lynch based on activity alone... I didn't include anyone else because I wasn't suggesting anyone else... Do you want me to give my opinion on everyone else? Because I can do if you want but that wasn't the point of my post. And wanting that from me is very hypocritical of you since you criticised me for asking others to do the same thing.

I'm voting for you jawapa because, despite being one of the few players to involve yourself in discussion, nothing you've said seems to have any interest in solving the game. You don't seem to care about working out people's alignments and your actions seem motivated in hindering discussion. You've said that you don't want people giving their opinions on each other (which is needed to work out people's alignments) and you partook in a vote that prevented discussion time.

Zumza, 2b55b5g

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Re: Mafia 22 [Loaf and Sangas Win]

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