🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

Onjit · 2024-03-21 06:54:45

🕐🕑 Welcome to🕒🕓
🕔🕕 Mafia 56🕖🕗
🕘🕙(Clock Mafia)🕚🕛

It's time to get started!

Basic Rules:

Don't be a ****, it's just a game
Try to post at least 10 times per day phase
Don't talk about the game outside of where you're allowed to (ie. this thread)
Days will be about 70 hours long, and nights will be 24 hours long (We'll have the same cutoff time of 3pm AEST so its suitable for strategic purposes)
Ask me if you have any questions
Have fun (mandatory)

The setup is explained here: 09:12, but I'll do a proper write-up in a bit and add it to the thread.

The players are:

Pqwerty
Zumza - Killed Night 1: Vanilla Townie
Bobithan
Processor
Different55 - Lynched Day 2: Vanilla Town
Edilights
Buzzerbee - Lynched Day 1: Town Follower
N1KF
Schlog

Processor · 2024-03-22 11:38:00

Hi I forgot how this game works what is a "Vanilla Townie"?

Processor · 2024-03-26 17:30:18

Good morning everyone!

Last week I was at the START Summit conference and thus very busy.
From now on you will see much more activity from me!

As far as my soft VT claim of yesterday is concerned, you’re correct in your read that I did not literally forget what a Vanilla Townie is!

Im heading back home right now, writing this on mobile. At home, I’ll do an indepth analysis of last day’s activity and post here.

Processor · 2024-03-26 18:52:20

N1KF wrote:

I guess I should get to work making a chart or something of the interactions between players.

Great idea!

Please find attached an overview of all interactions so far
Let me know if I missed anything

This a supposed to be a neutral summary. My reads on every player will follow.

Processor · 2024-03-26 19:07:29

Let's take a look at...

Bobithan

Townie moves:

- When a bandwagon formed after three players subsequently voted on me, Bobithan removed his vote, suspecting something odd going on when things were moving too fast

Scummy moves:

- Bobithan x Diff:
-- #60 - Bobithan accuses Diff of behaving just like I do, but gives me a "scum" and him a "neutral", which raised my eyebrow
-- #84 - He accuses Diff of being mafia but less than proc, then forgets about his suspicion and moves toward a pqwerty x proc hypothesis
- #60 - I found Bobithan's vote on Buzz to be somewhat opportunistic (third vote, easy to join).

Notable:

- Quite aggressive in his approach overall (see table below).
- #75 - He encouraged N1KF to hammer, which was a good move for town, but still aggressive.

Summary

The fact that Bobithan calls out Diff but sneakily diverts his attention to someone else in the same post is super sus to me. [#60, #84]

Processor · 2024-03-26 19:14:37

Town-lean

- Pqwerty

Scum-suspects

- Bobithan
- N1KF
- Schlog

Can't read

- Edilights
- Diff

Processor · 2024-03-26 19:27:15

Bobithan wrote:

I think pqwerty looks awfully red right now given a zumza death, given zumza very well could have been on pqwerty today if still alive

Why would Zumza be on pqwerty today if alive? Can you explain your pqwerty scum-read, please?

Processor · 2024-03-27 01:00:30

Theres most likely at least 1 scum on Buzz’s voter list (bob/n1kf/schlog)

Dont worry, you will get my reads but I would rather have us go through the cases one by one; hence why I invested the time only for the biggest suspicion I have, Bobithan

N1KF

Processor · 2024-03-27 01:07:40

N1KF “Pushed a Day 1 Babysitter claim, opposed by Zumza (confirmed town).”

I would caution against giving any weight toward how Zumza interacted toward others (since he also had no idea whos who)

—

I would love to have an analysis on which lynch gives us the most information, I didnt get to doing this myself but plan to do the analysis tomorrow, but feel free to give me your take, this was my initial motivation for creating my table

—

Good night for now, cya tomorrow

Processor · 2024-03-27 01:18:33

Zumzas suspicion on pqwerty is something I didnt register and I have to look into it

This makes me a bit less unsure on pqwerty until I understand Zumzas reasoning

—

The point bobithan makes regarding the probability of babysitter existing is somewhat true; I was personally also a bit hung up on trying to solve the puzzle of how to identify the current game setup, so I can sympathize with pqwerty and thats why I wrote their behavior off so far

I also had registered that they also didnt seem to bandwagon anywhere, which I liked
However I now realize that they jumped on Buzz after Zumzas suggestion, so perhaps it was somewhat opportunistic…

Hmmm

Processor · 2024-03-27 19:01:35

Good morning

Town has to inherently take risky moves to identify and eliminate scum to win. Mafia on the other hand simply has to play it safe until every member of the town is eliminated.
I am therefore considering risky moves to be rather town-leaning and lack of risky moves to be rather scum-suspicious.

Schlog

Bobithan wrote:

Schlog also hasn't really done much other than advocate for a nolynch and scumread three low hanging fruit slots (https://forums.everybodyedits.com/viewt … 40#p798740) which maybe is troublesome.

Schlog's behavior has been pretty "safe", no matter the outcome of his actions; it would be hard to criticize him for it.

Current status: Scum-suspect

Bobithan

Several risky moves:
- #40 - starting a vote on proc
- #45 - move away from proc bandwagon after two others joined quickly
- #85 - push to lynch pqwerty

His behavior towards diff is kinda sus but at the same time the explanations add up and to be honest, the only thing that makes me suspect him is how he treated Diff; it's a pretty weak case I admit and therefore...

Current status: Town lean [will change my mind if Diff ends up flipping scum]

N1KF

He does decent analysis and coverage of the game. At the same time, his votes have been low hanging fruits ?

Safe moves:

- #32 - 2nd vote on Schlog in a playful manner
- #44 - 3rd pressure vote on Proc - this spooked Bobithan because things were moving too fast
- #77 - 5th hammer vote on Buzz 10 min before game end - hard to criticize him for preventing a nolynch
- #103 - 2nd vote on Different55

Current status: Scum suspect

Processor · 2024-03-27 19:06:22

Town lean:

Bobithan
... Pqwerty (unsure)

Scum lean:

N1KF
Schlog

Idk:

Diff
Edilights

---

I personally feel more confident lynching someone from the set of people who voted on Buzz [Schlog, N1KF, Pqwerty, Bobithan] than to lynch the inactives

Processor · 2024-03-27 19:38:26

Pqwerty wrote:

Why are you so concerned about the babysitter stuff today when it wasn’t a reason for you to vote me yesterday? But now all of a sudden Zumza died and you think I’m some sort of deep wolf?

I kinda sympathize with Pqwerty here.

Can someone resummarize the case of why Pqwerty is scum to me again?

Happy to jump on board if the case makes sense; so far the argument seems to be relying on Pqwerty accidentally relying non-public information; but the argument for it is super weak... its super plausible to me that he was simply focusing on one game variant because only on that variant it even makes sense to consider a roleclaim

---

I am 85 % sure there is exactly 1 (not 0 or 2) scum among [N1KF, Bobithan]

---

Processor · 2024-03-27 19:41:27

!vote N1KF

this is my best bet right now; happy to be persuaded elsewhere

---

I dislike voting for Diff because of how N1KF, my top suspect, considers him scum
I am fine with going for Pqwerty or Schlog (the other two Buzz voters)

Processor · 2024-03-27 22:12:35

Im not happy with how easy a pqwerty lynch is, thats the only hesitation I have with the vote

I am happy to provide the hammer on pqwerty before we do a nolynch or a diff55 lynch which doesnt return much info(agreed w n1kf on that)

Schlog seems to agree with me on the n1kf suspicion, Bobithan is against it

Processor · 2024-03-27 22:17:32

just to clarify this:

I said "I am happy to provide the hammer on pqwerty"
which means that I would vote for pqwerty if y'all urge me to it, even if I am unconvinced by it, because this is currently essentially a 5 player game and the 4-vote-requirement is crippling town's decision making ability

Processor · 2024-03-27 22:32:01

Honestly a Pqwerty + N1KF duo seems likely (I see a resistance in N1KF voting for Pqwerty), so I'm happy to test it

!vote Pqwerty

Processor · 2024-03-27 22:35:10

Votes:
- Pqwerty (2): Bobithan, Processor
- Different55 (1): Edilights
- Bobithan (1): Pqwerty

Processor · 2024-03-27 22:40:45

I'm still up for 80 min; but happy to set an alarm and switch my vote on whatever is L-1 at 5:55 am my time

Processor · 2024-03-27 22:46:16

@Pqwerty: How do you feel about lynching N1KF?

Processor · 2024-03-27 23:00:01

I personally consider the probability of the number of scum among the Buzz voters [Schlog, Pqwerty, N1KF, Bobithan] to be

0 Scum: 0 %
1 Scum: 50 %
2 Scum: 50 %

=> 1.5 expected scum members among [Schlog, Pqwerty, N1KF, Bobithan]

I therefore estimate the number of scum among [Diff, Edi (, Proc)] to be 0.5

I therefore think it is much more fruitful to lynch one of the [Schlog, Pqwerty, N1KF, Bobithan]

Additionally, a lynch on an inactive member does not produce any reads for further investigation, where as a lynch on an active member gives us more to work with.

Processor · 2024-03-27 23:07:07

My heart says Pqwerty is town :<

Yeah, Bobithan seems townie because of how bold they play

Among [Bob, Schlog, Pqwerty, N1KF], if there are 2 scum, I expect it to be either:

Bob+Schlog or Pqwerty+N1KF

Processor · 2024-03-27 23:15:12

Processor wrote:

Among [Bob, Schlog, Pqwerty, N1KF], if there are 2 scum, I expect it to be either:
Bob+Schlog or Pqwerty+N1KF

But given that I am town reading Bob and Pqwerty; I think it's more likely that it's one scum there and one scum among [Diff, Edi] (which would be N1KF+Edi or Schlog+Edi)...

which makes me actually be OK with an Edi vote as well...

Processor · 2024-03-27 23:17:12

because both N1KF and Schlog are pushing for a Diff lynch, I consider a N1KF/Schlog + Diff combo to be less likely

of course I may be wrong on Pqwerty and Bob; which would nullify my Edi hypothesis

Processor · 2024-03-27 23:18:13

Schlog has been open to an N1KF lynch, which is why I think its less likely for them to be aligned

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#1 2024-03-21 06:54:45, last edited by Onjit (2024-03-29 06:24:29)