Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

ShadowsEdge · 2020-06-07 22:24:42

Im still online, Im just writing the reads list that you asked for.

ShadowsEdge · 2020-06-07 22:25:55

Oh also before I post it I guess I should say why I went inactive. I didn't give up, I spent 3 hours this morning and roughly 5-6 hours last night working on setting up for a game. I was supposed to do it a long time ago, but never got around to it until now. And so I was mostly focusing on that. So sorry if I went inactive because of it.

Norwee · 2020-06-07 22:26:35

Task just claimed vig btw. Your response to that? Is he scum?

ShadowsEdge · 2020-06-07 22:28:52

I was going to address that in the reads list. But yes. He is scum.

Believe me or don't but Task is counterclaiming my slot.

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 22:40:16

ShadowsEdge wrote:

I was going to address that in the reads list. But yes. He is scum.
Believe me or don't but Task is counterclaiming my slot.

yes i'm counterclaiming your fake vigi claim because im the real vigi
"you're scum! no you!"
is there any point addressing this at all?

mrjawapa

mrjawapa · 2020-06-07 22:42:54

I've told mini that if shadow is the vig, im jumping off a bridge

Norwee · 2020-06-07 22:43:36

Bro. I hope ur not literal.

mrjawapa · 2020-06-07 22:44:53

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

Bro. I hope ur not literal.

Good thing there are no bridges around here

mrjawapa · 2020-06-07 22:45:16

thats edgy, no I'm jk

Norwee · 2020-06-07 22:47:41

The only reason i’d believe Task was fake claiming is if there was real chance he or theoretically his partner was at threat of being lynched/killed if Shadow didn’t get lynched today.
Jawapa, let’s say Shadow was magically confirmed town. (Theoretically.) who would you lynch then?

mrjawapa · 2020-06-07 22:50:52

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

Jawapa, let’s say Shadow was magically confirmed town. (Theoretically.) who would you lynch then?

Buzzerbee

mrjawapa · 2020-06-07 22:51:18

I have a feeling buzz is the SK

Norwee · 2020-06-07 22:53:37

Buzz and Gabriel both pretty bare bones. Onjit too, but he has an excuse.

ShadowsEdge · 2020-06-07 23:33:23

Jawapa - Obvious townread. No counterclaim to Cop, and knew I was considered Dangerous. 10/10 my guy.

Luka - As I mentioned before, they were mostly suspected in regards to their reaction with the cop strategy. But I feel like they were being tunneled too much which inevitably made them look suspicious because of it, this sort of resembles what happened with me in Universe Mafia, where I was being tunneled by Norwegian which only ended up making me look more suspicious, despite being Town. Looking at their iso as a whole, I think that #121, #127, and especially #128 seem like genuine input, and trying to help the game progress. Their reaction to being killed off also seems like a more towny reaction than a mafia reaction. Evils tend to be pro-life and will tend to make reasons to push for themself to live, while most Townie's will be pro-Town and give reads and information to the town despite being a major target.
Pqwerty - Though I disagree with the cop strategy, it still feels like he had the intention of helping town with it. Similar to a reason that Luka stated before, it seems like he's putting more effort than is needed for it to be a mafia strategy. #158 and #343 are also posts that I like, which seem like genuine reads to keep the game afloat.
Norwegian - I believe I mentioned this before, but #74 is a post that I really like. I don't believe it needs explaining, but it was something that gave a nice townread for Norwegian. Norwegian also just seems genuinely concerned with the way the game goes, like their criticisms in #62 and #65. In general, I feel like they've been trying to keep the town active and try to keep the game afloat, rather than hide behind the madness, which is why I think they're town.
Onjit - Slight Townread. The only post which I see that can actually give off any valuable information into his role is really only #102. Even though it's small, it still felt genuine, and made sense with their previous actions. The only other somewhat significant post is #117, but that could theoretically go any way.

Gabriellfs - Putting this as Null, mostly because their approach to Day 1 left a really bad taste my mouth. Their most recent post, somewhat makes them look more towny, but most of what they said seems to be filler text, repeating things that have already been stated before.

Allencaspe - Pushed pretty heavily for a no lynch on Day 1, although this could just be considered a "nooby" thing to do. They were also pretty weird about the Andy lynch, I don't exactly know the correct term for this, but it's what I did in TFR, when I was pushing for Norwegian as Town, and when Norwegian inevitably flipped town, I was downplaying the wagon, and referenced me calling them out as Town. Allen did somthing similar in #292 where they say " I would be so surprised if he flipped town." (Which they later corrected to say that they meant they would be surprised if they flipped scum, somewhat proving the point I'm trying to make here)
Buzzerbee - Only has 4 posts, the first (aside from the confirming post) is just a filler message, and the other two are just pushing on Pqwerty for pushing for reads. Generally just seems like scumcoasting.
Taskmanager - Counterclaiming my slot. Assuming they're the Mafia Goon, assuming the Milk Man wouldn't out themselves like this, nor would an SK want to. Nothing more to that.

!vote Taskmanager

mrjawapa wrote:

NorwegianboyEE wrote:
Jawapa, let’s say Shadow was magically confirmed town. (Theoretically.) who would you lynch then?
Buzzerbee

If I was magically confirmed town why would you not go for the fake Vigi claim?

I fully expect I'll be lynched today, but once I'm confirmed, please go for Taskmanager.

ShadowsEdge · 2020-06-07 23:34:10

Oh by the way, I have to go to the store, minor inconvenience but I'll be offline for like half an hour, thanks

Norwee · 2020-06-07 23:40:54

ShadowsEdge wrote:

Nothing more to that.

Actually i was hoping you’d go into a bit more detail about what you believe was the motivation for mafia goon!Task to counterclaim you here. Since you pretty much have to convince us he isn’t town or we lynch you.

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 23:55:19

ShadowsEdge wrote:

If I was magically confirmed town why would you not go for the fake Vigi claim?

but we're literally going for the fake vigi claim right now lolo

mrjawapa · 2020-06-07 23:56:30

ShadowsEdge wrote:

If I was magically confirmed town why would you not go for the fake Vigi claim?

I answered the question with little thought or explanation, I guess.

I took it more as if not shadow, then who?

You flipping town debunks some of the reasons I find luka suspicious. So even though I think he's one of the mafia, its mostly based on you being mafia.

Lynching task is a must if you flip vig. I'm not willing to lynch task until then.

The only other person I find really suspicious is Buzzerbee.

Lynching you gives us more info to task and luka, since their roles are dependent on your role (for the most part).

ShadowsEdge · 2020-06-08 00:06:46

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

ShadowsEdge wrote:
Nothing more to that.
Actually i was hoping you’d go into a bit more detail about what you believe was the motivation for mafia goon!Task to counterclaim you here. Since you pretty much have to convince us he isn’t town or we lynch you.

Technically, the Mafia Goon is expendable. Most likely explanation I can muster is that the Mafia is willing to give away their mafia goon to get a mislynch on the Vigi, while still being able to get a kill tonight, and being able to convert another player, thus replacing the pretty much damned Goon.

mrjawapa wrote:

ShadowsEdge wrote:
If I was magically confirmed town why would you not go for the fake Vigi claim?
I answered the question with little thought or explanation, I guess.
I took it more as if not shadow, then who?
You flipping town debunks some of the reasons I find luka suspicious. So even though I think he's one of the mafia, its mostly based on you being mafia.
Lynching task is a must if you flip vig. I'm not willing to lynch task until then.
The only other person I find really suspicious is Buzzerbee.
Lynching you gives us more info to task and luka, since their roles are dependent on your role (for the most part).

Makes sense I suppose.

Pqwerty · 2020-06-08 00:24:32

So, I looked back at the ISO’s for Task and Shadow, and I think it could be argued that either Task or Shadow are tied to Luka.

TaskManager wrote:

I'm down for lynching Andy because of the things that happened earlier today
On the other hand inactive players like Gabrielf shouldn't be carried into late game where every single player matters, so it is better that we discard him and players like him as soon as possible if he doesn't make up his mind and start participating in the game

TaskManager wrote:

If we accidentally lynch a townie that's not the end of the world and we do gain information by analyzing connections the dead townie had with other members, this sometimes goes as far as confirming other player(s) to be townie(s) which reduces the pool of lynch candidates and brings us closer to winning

Why would Task want to lynch Gabriel, someone who had no connections to anyone, instead of Andy? And it’s not like they could say it was too late to switch votes. 6 hours before the lynch, they said “I voted andy” #289, and then they say “wait no I voted Gabriel” #290. Like I get it that they didn’t want a lurker in the game, but they contradict themselves on why they voted Gabe over Andy.

TaskManager wrote:

I agree with points Shadow made and am going to opt out of the whole cop thing because every incorrect guess of a mafia member appearing as not dangerous narrows the pool down
I also don't like Norboy forcing a townblock on D1. Besides the issues mentioned earlier, a townblock created earlier in the game is less likely to be questioned in late game because people barely look into early posts at that point and appeal to tradition kicks in (woah luka, a fallacy? :flush:)
That said, I don't scumread Norboy yet, even though I feel like day 1 townblocking easily could be scum motivated, I just have a gut feeling after all these games that whatever town!norboy does, it comes off as scummy
Pqwerty is a town lean for me
Don't know what to make of Onjit and Luka yet, though Luka raised valid points about townblocking

Looking back at Task’s ISO, this is their only attempt at scumreading and it’s an easy read to make. After that it’s just filler, sheeping, or, just agreeing/disagreeing with people without really pushing anything. Maybe they were laying low (so they don't get shot) because they claim vig, but mafia has the same reasons to lay low.

mrjawapa wrote:

To me, it looks like Shadow was trying to build a connection with Norboy, so the town would mislynch Norboy if Shadow flipped scum.

So in defense of Shadow, posts #59 and #60 happened almost 2 minutes apart from each other. It’s definitely possible that Shadow and Norboy independently came up with the same opinion at the same time. In #96 and #108, they agree with Norwegian because they have the same disagreement with my idea as Norwegian does. They could just be showing their combined disagreement by agreeing with Norboy.

ShadowsEdge wrote:

Allen agreed with it as well. I'm saying I don't think Luka is necessarily the most suspicious of all of them, These 3 are the ones that explicitly stated that they think the cop method is the way to go. 2B is more suspicious for doing a 180 in two posts, and in general for not really posting anything new to the conversation afaik, and Allen is in a similar wagon to Andy, where they're trying to avoid a lynch, and moreso just avoid discussion.

This is Shadow’s defense of Luka. It looks like they’re saying not only to doubt Luka for agreeing with me, because Allen and TNG followed me too.

In addition to all this, I feel like the mafia would be in a good spot to make a gambit like this. If the cop ends up accidentally outing the vig, the mafia can claim vig to cast even more suspicion on them, and then the town ends up mislynching the vig. Then, the SK is forced to make a difficult decision of “Do I kill the cop and potentially face 3 mafia tomorrow (where the majority is 4 to lynch someone)”, or “Do I shoot the confirmed mafia and face being outed by the confirmed cop with no vig slot to hide behind”. And if the gambit doesn’t work for the mafia, the milkman will just convert someone N2, and the town will be forced to find someone who wasn’t scummy until that day. Even if the vig shoots the milkman, their convert still goes off, so we’d basically be dealing with 2 sk’s.
I feel like there isn’t enough information to say who’s mafia and who isn’t. Task and Shadow both have bad reasons to lynch Luka. Task has behavior that could be vig or mafia, and Shadow has behavior that can be read the same.
So, maybe we should take the safe route and lynch someone else today and let the real vig just shoot their cc? It narrows the lynch pool today because there’s 2 less people to pick from. Or would you guys prefer to take the risk of accidentally lynching the vig (a path that I personally disagree with)?

TaskManager · 2020-06-08 01:02:54

Pqwerty wrote:

Why would Task want to lynch Gabriel, someone who had no connections to anyone, instead of Andy?

dispose the inactive players in early game because gabriel isnt doing anything
pretty sure i specified this earlier and i've also said that i have no problem lynching andy (#238)
i ended up not switching the vote to andy because the andy wagon was winning by quite a margin anyway

Pqwerty wrote:

they said “I voted andy” #289, and then they say “wait no I voted Gabriel” #290.

it was an error because i was thinking about andy while posting that i voted gabriel; the posts are literally 20 seconds apart and would be even closer if not for the 20 second posting cooldown

Pqwerty wrote:

Task and Shadow both have bad reasons to lynch Luka

where did i EVER voice any reasons or will to lynch luka other than because of jawapa's cop claim and reads that uncover his ties to shadow?

Pqwerty wrote:

but they contradict themselves on why they voted Gabe over Andy

i was ready to vote either and would've switched to andy if that wagon lacked traction
point out the contradiction

Pqwerty wrote:

So, maybe we should take the safe route and lynch someone else today and let the real vig just shoot their cc? It narrows the lynch pool today because there’s 2 less people to pick from. Or would you guys prefer to take the risk of accidentally lynching the vig (a path that I personally disagree with)?

someone else like who?
we have a considerable chance of striking the milkman right now, doing so will literally deny mafia the possibility to recruit another player
if we sidetrack onto someone else today we
a) run a much higher risk of mislynching a townie
b) give mafia larger chances of using the milkman role
c) in the event that shadow dies and flips mafia, and i die and flip vigi (which is most likely whats going to happen), we have to spend another day pushing a wagon for luka, besides it gives him another day to lie himself out of it
if we resolve this today we
a) have a chance of taking the milk man out before they use their role
b) in the event that shadow flips mafia i can resolve the luka problem overnight
c) tomorrow we can hunt for SK/converted mafia

Pqwerty · 2020-06-08 01:26:54

I meant to say that both of you had a bad reason to lynch Gabe.
You wanted to lynch Gabe for being inactive. But you say a townie mislynch would be good for the information. The contradiction is that you support a lynch that gives info, but chose to lynch someone that wouldn't give any info.

TaskManager wrote:

we have a considerable chance of striking the milkman right now

Wait just a second...how do you know that Shadow is a milkman over a goon or an SK?
I was going to suggest an Allen lynch because he comes across as the scummiest to me.

Pqwerty · 2020-06-08 01:54:41

Shoot I need to think this through some more.

There's no way both mafia would cc each other, right? There's no way Task is a goon outing the milkman. But then why are you so certain we're on the verge of killing the milkman, Task?

TaskManager · 2020-06-08 02:00:34

Pqwerty wrote:

Wait just a second...how do you know that Shadow is a milkman over a goon or an SK?

i don't
its a 33% or 50% probability, leaning to 50%, which is a considerable chance

Pqwerty wrote:

But you say a townie mislynch would be good for the information

[citation needed]

Pqwerty · 2020-06-08 02:26:54

TaskManager wrote:

If we accidentally lynch a townie that's not the end of the world and we do gain information by analyzing connections the dead townie had with other members, this sometimes goes as far as confirming other player(s) to be townie(s) which reduces the pool of lynch candidates and brings us closer to winning

There's your citation.

Also, if you assume someone's mafia, there's also a 50% chance they flip goon. So, if you think that Shadow is scum, why do you say that Shadow is the milkman over being a goon?

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#439 2020-06-07 23:33:23

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!vote Taskmanager

#440 2020-06-07 23:34:10

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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