Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

AllenCaspe9510 · 2019-12-31 08:06:26

I was expecting to die :/

2b55b5g · 2019-12-31 08:14:08

HugoTse wrote:

I'm pretty sure that I'm a townie until someone else dies.

So this was Hugo hinting us that he’s Mr.s Claus ._.

peace

Pqwerty · 2019-12-31 08:47:18

Lynch Gregbot

In #130, he says that he wants to lynch peace (because peace wanted to lynch raprap over Hugo). He continues in #143 to say that peace and Hugo are potentially scum partners. When the town said to lynch peace instead, he was okay with the lynch on peace (#258).

However, 2 hours before the end of the day, Gregbot unlynches peace (#293).

The only reason he would do that is because he was defending peace. He didn't want to lynch one of his partners.

He can't argue that he unlynched because he was trying to get more discussion going (or to get the carolers to pick their target) before the end of the day because there were only 2 hours left on the timer and the town has been extremely inactive. There's no way that the town would get any use out of 2 hours if they already used 70 of them yelling at Allen.

Also, the carolers D2 statistically favored the mafia if they "pre-selected" who they'd sing to during the day. This idea was initially proposed by Gregbot D1 (post #120) and promoted by peace (#297).

On D2, there were 4 town PRs (Santa, Mrs. Claus, 2 random town PRs), 3 carolers, 3 mafia, and a Jester, for a grand total of 11 people.

The only people that could benefit from a carol in this situation were the 2 town PRs and the 3 mafia, because Santa, Mrs. Claus, and the Jester can't receive upgrades and if any caroler was sung to, they would not be able to reach the 3 carolers required for the one-night boost (assuming you can't sing to yourself).

The only favorable outcomes are when a town PR gets buffed. The only unfavorable outcome is when a mafia gets buffed.

Assuming a mafia got lynched D2, there was a 20% chance of a favorable outcome, and 20% unfavorable.
Assuming a PR got lynched D2, there was a 10% chance of a favorable outcome, and a 30% unfavorable.
Assuming a caroler got lynched, there was a 0% chance of a favorable/unfavorable outcome because it would be impossible to get 3 carolers to sing to the same person.

Also, let's assume that if the carolers didn't cooperate then there was basically a 0% chance that town or mafia would be buffed. In the eyes of the mafia, they can either have a 20 or 30% chance of getting buffed (where the carolers cooperate) or a 0% chance. So, if they got the carolers to cooperate, they would be in a better position. Not to mention the fact that on the surface, coordinating the carolers seems like the right thing to do.

Also, if the carolers knew that they could only sing to a PR, the person they picked would probably be killed by the mafia because it is someone the carolers saw as a PR.

In conclusion, there are no reasonable excuses for Gregbot's unvote on peace, and the plan to coordinate the carolers can only be interpreted as having scummy intent (because it favors the mafia). Therefore, Greg must be scum.

Onjit · 2019-12-31 09:24:40

!votr greg

sure seems legit

Kira · 2019-12-31 10:35:17

!je vote greg

Sure seems legit

2b55b5g · 2019-12-31 11:27:23

Do you mean GregBot unvoted so other people would unvote too?
But that wouldn't work, there's 2 hours left, and you also mentioned that the town has been extremely inactive.

I wanna hear GregBot's defense on his unvote on Peace.

Onjit · 2019-12-31 14:12:19

!vote 2b

join the wagon

one of us

one of us

one of us

Kira · 2019-12-31 14:43:59

!vote 2b

CHU CHUUU

THE WAGON IS ABOUT TO DEPART. PLEASE FASTEN YOUR SEATBELTS!

2b55b5g · 2019-12-31 14:58:42

GregBot · 2019-12-31 15:19:19

Here's my point of view:
- HugoTse is put under some pressure to be lynched D1 #30 etc.
- Allencaspe (#34) and peace come to his defense (#126)
- peace defends allen and HugoTse saying they could be Santa / Mrs. Claus #35

At this point I am suspecting that peace and HugoTse are scum.
I chose to suspect HugoTse the most because the other two came to HugoTse's defense when he was pressured.
Peace was the most enthusiastic defender of HugoTse, so I suspected him to be scum as well.
Allen's defense of HugoTse seemed, compared to peace, more "natural" to me, which is why I said I did not think they were scum (#54).
However, I'm not so sure about Allen currently.

My unvote on peace was to give him some more time to explain themselves. Maybe some extra information would come out of it.
It was clear that peace was getting lynched that day and if I really wanted to influence the outcome, I would have to make some effort defending peace.
Or at least vote on another wagon.
I did not, because I wanted peace lynched (#258).

GregBot · 2019-12-31 15:42:04

Who made the second kill tonight?

I wonder if we have a Krampus among us, who happened to be roleblocked N1...
Or we have a Frosty the Snowman

ShadowsEdge · 2019-12-31 18:38:27

Current Vote Count

[2] 2B55B5G TNG | Onjit, Kira
[1] GregBot | Pqwerty

Majority is [5]. (Timer)

AllenCaspe9510 · 2019-12-31 18:45:06

GregBot wrote:

Who made the second kill tonight?

Modkill possibly

GregBot · 2019-12-31 18:51:35

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

GregBot wrote:
Who made the second kill tonight?
Modkill possibly

I hope we get a different kind of phrasing when someone is modkilled.
I don't see why someone would be modkilled last night...

ShadowsEdge · 2019-12-31 18:57:54

HugoTse was not modkilled. If they were modkilled I would make it explicitly clear, otherwise every kill type is poised in the same way.

GregBot, 2b55b5g, Minimania

Pqwerty · 2020-01-01 02:02:22

I’m pretty sure Allen is our neutral, so we probably have a Frosty.

I understand that you wanted more information out of Peace, but he didn’t really do anything helpful D2 and I don’t think he would’ve done anything 2 hours before plurality.

The only other thing that’s weird to me is Onjit and Kira’s /s posting, but I think they’re just memers in general.

Onjit

ZeldaXD · 2020-01-01 02:27:03

Thats just regular Onjit and Kira though

Onjit, Pqwerty, 2b55b5g

Onjit · 2020-01-01 02:56:55

someone needs to teach kira how to **** properly

mutantdevle, Pqwerty, 2b55b5g

mutantdevle · 2020-01-01 03:32:10

@Norweiganboy, do you still have that scum tell on me?

Norwee

Pqwerty · 2020-01-01 03:45:25

You’re talking to the dead, Mutant.

GregBot, 2b55b5g, mutantdevle

Onjit · 2020-01-01 04:38:17

he's just mocking norboy for dying so early again

what a **** noob lmao the guy can't even play mafia properly

mutantdevle, rat

AllenCaspe9510 · 2020-01-01 08:48:59

Lmao, but I'm noob too!

mutantdevle · 2020-01-01 12:19:05

Was he a doctor?

Onjit · 2020-01-01 12:53:12

@peace, who are your scum team mates??

Onjit · 2020-01-01 13:43:30

remember that not answering is a scum-indicative and we would be legally obligated to policy lynch you

peace

Official Everybody Edits Forums

#301 2019-12-31 08:06:26

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#302 2019-12-31 08:14:08

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#303 2019-12-31 08:47:18

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

Lynch Gregbot

#304 2019-12-31 09:24:40

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

!votr greg

#305 2019-12-31 10:35:17

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

!je vote greg

#306 2019-12-31 11:27:23

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#307 2019-12-31 14:12:19

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

!vote 2b

one of us

#308 2019-12-31 14:43:59

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

!vote 2b

#309 2019-12-31 14:58:42

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#310 2019-12-31 15:19:19

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#311 2019-12-31 15:42:04

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#312 2019-12-31 18:38:27

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#313 2019-12-31 18:45:06

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#314 2019-12-31 18:51:35

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#315 2019-12-31 18:57:54

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#316 2020-01-01 02:02:22

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#317 2020-01-01 02:27:03

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#318 2020-01-01 02:56:55

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#319 2020-01-01 03:32:10

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#320 2020-01-01 03:45:25

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#321 2020-01-01 04:38:17

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#322 2020-01-01 08:48:59

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#323 2020-01-01 12:19:05

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#324 2020-01-01 12:53:12

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

#325 2020-01-01 13:43:30

Re: Mafia 38 - The Twelve Days of Christmas [Game Thread | Town Win!]

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