Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

TaskManager · 2019-10-24 08:14:56

oh nice
onjit claiming shadow is maf doesn't town clear him if onjit flips SK, since it was a blind guess

Onjit wrote:

If you choose to not lynch me, I'll side with the town and try to kill a mafia

The game is winnable for us at this point even if we do lynch you
And the risk of you missing your shot or just tricking us is quite high anyway
so uh no I'd rather not take on additional risks and my vote stays

I think Jawapa is one of the maf partners judging by his D3 posts
I find it hard to believe that NoNK could be maf because he was legit trying to solve the game all day3 long and a large portion of day2

ZeldaXD · 2019-10-24 08:23:33

Why should we believe you when you say you are going to help town, Onjit?

Different55 · 2019-10-24 08:34:49

Yeah not saying shadow is cleared but if onjit flips maf then it seems likely that he was going got a mislynch in the moment, which is enough to lean town in their direction.

Speaking of shadow, valid point about Daneeko I keep forgetting that until you bring it back up.

Onjit · 2019-10-24 09:54:02

I guess I'll break it down for you guys then:

Here's the possible cases for this game:

I'm mafia and there's another town PR
(5v3) > Lynch me > (5v2) > Town dies > (4v2) > Still in MYLO

I'm mafia and there's a SK
(5v2v1) > Lynch me > (5v1v1) > Two town Die > (3v1v1) > LYLO

I'm SK and am lynched
(5v2v1) > Lynch me > (5v2) > Town dies > (4v2) > Still MYLO

I'm SK and I work with town (mafia lynched-mafia killed)
(5v2v1) > Mafia Lynch > (5v1v1) > 1 Town/1 Mafia Die > (4v1) > Town Win

I'm SK and I work with town (town lynched-mafia killed)
(5v2v1) > Town Lynch > (4v2v1) > 1 Town/1 Mafia Die > (3v1v1) > LYLO

I'm SK and I work with town (we lynch mafia and mafia tries to kill me)
(5v2v1) > Mafia Lynch > (5v1v1) > Mafia Dies > (4v1) > Town Win

I'm SK and I work with town (we lynch town and mafia tries to kill me)
(5v2v1) > Town Lynch > (4v2v1) > Mafia Dies > (4v1v1) > MYLO/Town Win

I'm SK and I work against town (we lynch mafia and mafia tries to kill me)
(5v2v1) > Mafia Lynch > (5v1v1) > Town Dies > (4v1v1) > MYLO/Town Win

I'm SK and I work against town (we lynch town and mafia tries to kill me)
(5v2v1) > Town Lynch > (4v2v1) > Town Dies > (3v1v1) > LYLO/Town Win

I'm SK and I work against town (mafia lynched-town killed)
(5v2v1) > Mafia Lynch > (5v1v1) > 2 Town Die > (3v1v1) > LYLO

I'm SK and I work against town (town lynched-town killed)
(5v2v1) > Town Lynch > (4v2v1) > 2 Town Die > (2v2v1) > Loss Probably (Messy)

I'm actually the cop and a victim of an unfortunate timezone and NoNK's Tagliatelle Tirades
(5v3) > I'm Lynched > (4v3) > Town Dies > (3v3) > Town Loses

I'm the cop and we lynch town
(5v3) > Town Lynch > (4v3) > Town Dies > (3v3) > Town Loses

I'm the cop and we lynch mafia
(5v3) > Mafia Lynch > (5v2) > Town Dies > (4v2) > Still MYLO

We don't lynch today and there's a SK (and they get mafia)
(5v2v1) > No Lynch > (5v2v1) > 1 Town/1 Mafia Die > (4v1v1) > MYLO/Town Win

We don't lynch today and there's a SK (and they get town)
(5v2v1) > No Lynch > (5v2v1) > 2 Town Die > (3v2v1) > Town Loss

We don't lynch today, I'm the SK and I kill Mafia
(5v2v1) > No Lynch > (5v2v1) > 1 Town/1 Mafia Die > (4v1v1) > MYLO/Town Win

We don't lynch today, I'm the SK and I kill Town
(5v2v1) > No Lynch > (5v2v1) > 2 Town Die > (3v2v1) > Town Loss

We don't lynch today, and I'm the cop
(5v3) > No Lynch > (5v3) > Town Dies > (4v3) > LYLO

Outcomes in order from best to worst:
Town Win > EZ-MYLO > MYLO > LYLO > Town Loss

Out of the cases where I am lynched:
Town Win: 0
MYLO: 0
MYLO: 2
LYLO: 1
Town Loss: 1

Out of the cases where I am not lynched:
Town Win: 2
MYLO/Town Win: 5
MYLO: 1
LYLO: 3
Town Loss: 4

If we ignore cases where I betray the town:
Town Win: 2
MYLO/Town Win: 3
MYLO: 0
LYLO: 1
Town Loss: 2

Conclusion: It's objectively better for town to not lynch me, because even if I betray town (which I won't), town has a much, much greater chance of winning

daneeko · 2019-10-24 10:18:02

Onjit wrote:

I guess I'll break it down for you guys then:
Here's the possible cases for this game:
I'm mafia and there's another town PR
(5v3) > Lynch me > (5v2) > Town dies > (4v2) > Still in MYLO

I'm mafia and there's a SK
(5v2v1) > Lynch me > (5v1v1) > Two town Die > (3v1v1) > LYLO

I'm SK and am lynched
(5v2v1) > Lynch me > (5v2) > Town dies > (4v2) > Still MYLO

I'm SK and I work with town (mafia lynched-mafia killed)
(5v2v1) > Mafia Lynch > (5v1v1) > 1 Town/1 Mafia Die > (4v1) > Town Win

I'm SK and I work with town (town lynched-mafia killed)
(5v2v1) > Town Lynch > (4v2v1) > 1 Town/1 Mafia Die > (3v1v1) > LYLO

I'm SK and I work with town (we lynch mafia and mafia tries to kill me)
(5v2v1) > Mafia Lynch > (5v1v1) > Mafia Dies > (4v1) > Town Win

I'm SK and I work with town (we lynch town and mafia tries to kill me)
(5v2v1) > Town Lynch > (4v2v1) > Mafia Dies > (4v1v1) > MYLO/Town Win

I'm SK and I work against town (we lynch mafia and mafia tries to kill me)
(5v2v1) > Mafia Lynch > (5v1v1) > Town Dies > (4v1v1) > MYLO/Town Win

I'm SK and I work against town (we lynch town and mafia tries to kill me)
(5v2v1) > Town Lynch > (4v2v1) > Town Dies > (3v1v1) > LYLO/Town Win

I'm SK and I work against town (mafia lynched-town killed)
(5v2v1) > Mafia Lynch > (5v1v1) > 2 Town Die > (3v1v1) > LYLO

I'm SK and I work against town (town lynched-town killed)
(5v2v1) > Town Lynch > (4v2v1) > 2 Town Die > (2v2v1) > Loss Probably (Messy)

I'm actually the cop and a victim of an unfortunate timezone and NoNK's Tagliatelle Tirades
(5v3) > I'm Lynched > (4v3) > Town Dies > (3v3) > Town Loses

I'm the cop and we lynch town
(5v3) > Town Lynch > (4v3) > Town Dies > (3v3) > Town Loses

I'm the cop and we lynch mafia
(5v3) > Mafia Lynch > (5v2) > Town Dies > (4v2) > Still MYLO

We don't lynch today and there's a SK (and they get mafia)
(5v2v1) > No Lynch > (5v2v1) > 1 Town/1 Mafia Die > (4v1v1) > MYLO/Town Win

We don't lynch today and there's a SK (and they get town)
(5v2v1) > No Lynch > (5v2v1) > 2 Town Die > (3v2v1) > Town Loss

We don't lynch today, I'm the SK and I kill Mafia
(5v2v1) > No Lynch > (5v2v1) > 1 Town/1 Mafia Die > (4v1v1) > MYLO/Town Win

We don't lynch today, I'm the SK and I kill Town
(5v2v1) > No Lynch > (5v2v1) > 2 Town Die > (3v2v1) > Town Loss

We don't lynch today, and I'm the cop
(5v3) > No Lynch > (5v3) > Town Dies > (4v3) > LYLO
Outcomes in order from best to worst:
Town Win > EZ-MYLO > MYLO > LYLO > Town Loss
Out of the cases where I am lynched:
Town Win: 0
MYLO: 0
MYLO: 2
LYLO: 1
Town Loss: 1
Out of the cases where I am not lynched:
Town Win: 2
MYLO/Town Win: 5
MYLO: 1
LYLO: 3
Town Loss: 4
If we ignore cases where I betray the town:
Town Win: 2
MYLO/Town Win: 3
MYLO: 0
LYLO: 1
Town Loss: 2
Conclusion: It's objectively better for town to not lynch me, because even if I betray town (which I won't), town has a much, much greater chance of winning

oh wow

Onjit · 2019-10-24 11:29:29

I reread my post and I want to clarify that by "MYLO/Town Win" I mean a situation where it's trchnically MYLO but one of the scum is known

NoNK · 2019-10-24 12:21:31

Onjit's post is BAD

Onjit has an easy way to betray town and if he's playing to his win condition (something we should always assume) he WILL TAKE IT

All he needs to do to become unlynchable for the rest of the game is to kill a townie tonight (other then diff) and he literally gets into 2-2-1, which is autoloss for town but winnable for serial killer. If we no-lynch today, we go into 3-2-1, which is ALSO autoloss for town but once again winnable for serial killer

The fact that he only counts cases instead of actually considering the probability of these cases is intentionally deceptive, because a lot of these cases rely on contradictory strategies (you can't lynch AND no-lynch) and don't actually tell you the probability of each option occuring!

Onjit's post is intentionally deceptive (obviously, he's playing to survive), there are 3 enemies of town, of which he is one of them, and eliminating him today gives us the greatest probability of winning.

According to your humble mechanical knowledge expert, we should still lynch Onjit for maximum town success

Onjit · 2019-10-24 12:29:08

I know you're not going to believe me, but I'm acting in the interest of the town. NoNK is caught up in his own logic and is refusing to see what actually happened

I hope you huys can see throught NoNK's nonsense and make the right decision, but at this point all I can do is shrug and say

There was nothing I could do, dude

daneeko · 2019-10-24 12:36:44

Onjit wrote:

I know you're not going to believe me, but I'm acting in the interest of the town. NoNK is caught up in his own logic and is refusing to see what actually happened
I hope you huys can see throught NoNK's nonsense and make the right decision, but at this point all I can do is shrug and say
There was nothing I could do, dude

care to actually explain why nonk saying you're wrong is wrong?

i will literally

!vote Onjit

Onjit · 2019-10-24 12:44:10

Because I'm the cop and NoNK was refusing to believe that I could make a mistake (which is quite the compliment tbh)

I thought that maybe by trying to give town an alternate reason to not self-immolate we could actually win this game, but clearly that's not possoble when there's mafia at the gates

So like I said, I've done all I can

mutantdevle · 2019-10-24 12:52:00

Mod post

Vote Count

Onjit (3) - TaskManager, NoNK, Daneeko
ZeldaXD (1) - mrjawapa.
ShadowsEdge (1) - Onjit

Please insult me if I got a vote wrong.

Time left: https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g … nt=cursive

TaskManager · 2019-10-24 12:55:57

NoNK wrote:

All he needs to do to become unlynchable for the rest of the game is to kill a townie tonight (other then diff) and he literally gets into 2-2-1,

The only way for that to happen is if we lynch a townie today and both Onjit and Mafia target different townies tonight

Onjit

Onjit · 2019-10-24 13:15:41

TaskManager wrote:

NoNK wrote:
All he needs to do to become unlynchable for the rest of the game is to kill a townie tonight (other then diff) and he literally gets into 2-2-1,
The only way for that to happen is if we lynch a townie today and both Onjit and Mafia target different townies tonight

For someone who accused me of deliberately skewing the data by not considering the likeliness of different scenarios, his ideals don't seem to apply to him lmao

Different55 · 2019-10-24 14:15:20

I personally don't think we should risk it. Odds say we have 3 enemies that need to die in order for town to win. Whether Onjit is SK or Maf, his win condition is to end us, and ours is to end him. We can win without him, and keeping him alive puts us at additional risk. Which way he flips will provide some amount of information about the game's setup.

TaskManager, NoNK, rat

NoNK · 2019-10-24 14:18:49

TaskManager wrote:

NoNK wrote:
All he needs to do to become unlynchable for the rest of the game is to kill a townie tonight (other then diff) and he literally gets into 2-2-1,
The only way for that to happen is if we lynch a townie today and both Onjit and Mafia target different townies tonight

No offense task but if you literally read the next sentence of my post I say that if we no-lynch today we end up in 3-2-1 which is also autoloss for town, please man

If you want to know how onjit and mafia can target different townies tonight, mafia kills diff and onjit kills me GG game over we lost if we don't lynch onjit today

@mrjawapa, ZeldaXD, Shadowsedge, Different55

Onjit needs 2 more votes to be lynched and we have 24 hours, if we don't get 5 votes on onjit in the next 24 hours I am going to have an aneurysm on live television

daneeko · 2019-10-24 14:19:27

haha 666 evil number

Onjit · 2019-10-24 14:32:15

vote zelda

TaskManager · 2019-10-24 14:39:54

NoNK wrote:

No offense task but if you literally read the next sentence of my post I say that if we no-lynch today we end up in 3-2-1 which is also autoloss for town, please man

I did read the next sentence, wtf do you want
Also you do know that there's just a 50% chance Onjit didn't pick the one shot vest, right

Different55 · 2019-10-24 14:53:02

Friendly reminder that the Maf's MO has been to confuse and disrupt the town the entire game. I'm not buying Onjit's SK claim and even if he is, he still puts us at risk. Lynch him today, see how he flips, go after Task tomorrow, work out the last scum between Zelda and whoever else is left.

Vote Onjit

TaskManager · 2019-10-24 14:53:46

whats MO

daneeko · 2019-10-24 14:54:28

TaskManager wrote:

whats MO

also what MYLO and LYLO

Different55 · 2019-10-24 14:56:21

Modus Operandi, they way they're working.

Mylo is Mislynch and Lose. Meaning if we lynch a townie, it's game over.

LyLo is Lynch or Lose, which means if we do NOT lynch scum, it's game over.

TaskManager · 2019-10-24 14:57:28

also why suddenly lynch me
also if you don't trust onjit's SK claim and you think he's mafia then where's the last PR

Onjit

ZeldaXD · 2019-10-24 15:00:38

!vote Onjit

I hope this is the correct choice.

Onjit · 2019-10-24 15:01:22

TaskManager wrote:

also why suddenly lynch me
also if you don't trust onjit's SK claim and you think he's mafia then where's the last PR

i am the last PR

Official Everybody Edits Forums

#651 2019-10-24 08:14:56

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#652 2019-10-24 08:23:33

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#653 2019-10-24 08:34:49

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#654 2019-10-24 09:54:02

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Conclusion: It's objectively better for town to not lynch me, because even if I betray town (which I won't), town has a much, much greater chance of winning

#655 2019-10-24 10:18:02

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Conclusion: It's objectively better for town to not lynch me, because even if I betray town (which I won't), town has a much, much greater chance of winning

#656 2019-10-24 11:29:29

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#657 2019-10-24 12:21:31

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

According to your humble mechanical knowledge expert, we should still lynch Onjit for maximum town success

#658 2019-10-24 12:29:08

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

There was nothing I could do, dude

#659 2019-10-24 12:36:44

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

There was nothing I could do, dude

!vote Onjit

#660 2019-10-24 12:44:10

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#661 2019-10-24 12:52:00

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Vote Count

#662 2019-10-24 12:55:57

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#663 2019-10-24 13:15:41

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#664 2019-10-24 14:15:20

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#665 2019-10-24 14:18:49

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

@mrjawapa, ZeldaXD, Shadowsedge, Different55

#666 2019-10-24 14:19:27

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#667 2019-10-24 14:32:15

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

vote zelda

#668 2019-10-24 14:39:54

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#669 2019-10-24 14:53:02

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Vote Onjit

#670 2019-10-24 14:53:46

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#671 2019-10-24 14:54:28

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#672 2019-10-24 14:56:21

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#673 2019-10-24 14:57:28

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#674 2019-10-24 15:00:38

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

!vote Onjit

#675 2019-10-24 15:01:22

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

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