Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Onjit · 2019-10-23 00:05:09

TaskManager wrote:

if i understood how the setup works, its either 2 maf and 1 SK or 3 maf
but its 3 scum either way

"TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather"
It's possible but quite unlikely that there is 2 scum

TaskManager · 2019-10-23 00:18:09

Onjit wrote:

TaskManager wrote:
if i understood how the setup works, its either 2 maf and 1 SK or 3 maf
but its 3 scum either way
"TTTTTT = Goon + Godfather"
It's possible but quite unlikely that there is 2 scum

oh

NoNK · 2019-10-23 00:34:51

I feel like determining zelda's alignment is the key to solving this game

NoNK · 2019-10-23 01:45:30

Yeah, there's just too much in this game for me to jump to conclusions off of the top of my head and have any degree of confidence in them. I've got a group project tomorrow and an midterm thursday, but I'll try to make time to re-read this game somewhere in there.

ZeldaXD · 2019-10-23 08:46:08

NoNK wrote:

I feel like determining zelda's alignment is the key to solving this game

What do you think would be the game solution considering I am town?

mutantdevle · 2019-10-23 13:13:50

Mod post

Vote Count

ZeldaXD (1) - mrjawapa.

Please insult me if I got a vote wrong.

Time left: https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g … nt=cursive

Different55 · 2019-10-23 15:31:09

ZeldaXD wrote:

TaskManager wrote:
oh wow what
i think the most likely scenario is that we have/had a vigilante that shot kira
i don't blame them, honestly, if i was vigi i'd shoot kira too lol
at first i assumed that is mafia's kill and had a hard time figuring out why would mafia ever target kira
also i'll admit that i too thought norboy could be actual scum at the end of the day when he just refused to cooperate anymore
norboy can you like not do that again
we could have lynched someone else if you didnt go full scummy mode in the end
unless we have a cop that found something and is willing to share, i propose we lynch daneeko
cause i frankly have no idea at the moment
http://puu.sh/EvBQT/d885945895.png
I think we should investigate Onjit-NoNK-Daneeko connections. I'd be up for lynching Daneeko, see post 534 (2 minutes before NoNK hammers Norboy).

Considering this I think I'd also be up for lynching Daneeko. I've been dismissing him as new but considering how closely he's followed NoNK and that NoNK's been on both wagons, I feel like that's a relatively safe choice.

I think we're missing a role, and I think it's the cop. Unless it's a roleblocker. There could be a pair of masons but the odds of that are very low, cop has the highest odds. I think now's a good time to speak up if you know a maf or know we're about to mislynch.

Wait no that's probably a One-Shot Cop. In which case they probably don't know anything or the person they burned their shot on is already dead. So yeah shouldn't rely on that.

mrjawapa · 2019-10-23 15:38:42

Different55 wrote:

Considering this I think I'd also be up for lynching Daneeko

I might have an aneurism.

ShadowsEdge · 2019-10-23 15:42:20

Ack, sorry I've been inactive. I had practice again yesterday, and I just went to sleep after I got home.

There's not a whole lot to comment on, but I'll try my best.

I still stand by my assumption that Daneeko is town. I've explained my reasonings, and I will stand by them until there is unrefutable proof that Daneeko is not town. If we really are in a position of MyLo (I don't fully understand it but I did look it up), then it's better not to jump straight into conclusions, especially now.

I don't understand what the "key feature" of determining Zelda's alignment is. The only stances I found considering Zelda is that Jawapa is suspicious (Although I'm not sure if they still hold this stance for the next point), suspicious of Onjit, NoNK and Daneeko being a scum team, and that they believe I'm town. They never outright said they believe that Onjit, NoNK, and Daneeko are a scum team, but they want to look into the connections, which is not uncommon.

And I'm gonna go back to the whole MyLo situation, we shouldn't be lynching people at this point in time to find out the alignments of others, unless the person we are lynching is also generally perceived as scum. I looked into the MyLo situation, it's possible we are in MyLo, but that is we have three mafia members as opposed to two. But, for the sake of caution, I'd just assume it's three and take today as if we're in a MyLo situation.

I personally believe Zelda is town, and it's not because they're siding with me. It's more of a gut feeling than anything else really. I wouldn't bet my life on it, but they don't give me any reason to believe they're scum, and their playstyle matches how they've played in previous games as well.

I also want to say something about Norwegian: he did the same thing in TFR, as the exact same role, too. He acted scummy, in a sense, and was prosecuted after claiming his role. It's not completely past his ability to fake his actions, but if he claimed Doctor the lynch against him should not have continued.

Shoutout to Norwegian again because I'm doing another tl;dr:

I believe Daneeko is town, and unless evidence that irrefutably proves they are scum comes up, I will continue to believe they are town. Zelda shouldn't be lynched, because I think there's not all too much to gain from lynching them, as well as me believing they're town. I believe we should treat today as MyLo, even though there's a possibility that it's not a MyLo situation, for safety sake.

Anyway, that's all I really have to say, I don't have any strong opinions on anyone just yet, but I'll look over the thread again afterschool to see if I get any suspicions of anyone and whatnot. I have to head out to school here soon. So I'll be mostly inactive again.

NoNK · 2019-10-23 16:06:09

ZeldaXD wrote:

NoNK wrote:
I feel like determining zelda's alignment is the key to solving this game
What do you think would be the game solution considering I am town?

I'm very "busy" "studying" right now and totally not procrastinating and reading online mafia games,

but the tl;dr is I think mrjawapa is confident town, and if we can also write off zelda as confident town, that also points to daneeko + shadow being town, and that pretty much solves the game - I'm gonna make a proper analysis of all this later tonight and see if that makes any sense

btw if anyone can link me any good resources on Determiner Phrase Rules in X-bar theory that would be awesome, I'm having trouble finding them

Different55 · 2019-10-23 16:10:35

I don't know if we have the luxury of waiting around for irrefutable proof. In all likeliness our cop, if they even exist, has nothing for us. We will have no solid proof for anybody. I'm not stuck on Daneeko and I'd happily go for anyone else but I'd love to hear your reasoning why you'd refuse to vote for Daneeko except for in currently-impossible circumstances.

Different55 · 2019-10-23 16:14:31

NoNK wrote:

ZeldaXD wrote:
NoNK wrote:
I feel like determining zelda's alignment is the key to solving this game
What do you think would be the game solution considering I am town?
I'm very "busy" "studying" right now and totally not procrastinating and reading online mafia games,
but the tl;dr is I think mrjawapa is confident town, and if we can also write off zelda as confident town, that also points to daneeko + shadow being town, and that pretty much solves the game - I'm gonna make a proper analysis of all this later tonight and see if that makes any sense
btw if anyone can link me any good resources on Determiner Phrase Rules in X-bar theory that would be awesome, I'm having trouble finding them

so according to you

2. mrjawapa - town
3. ZeldaXD - town
6. Onjit
7. TaskManager
8. Daneeko - town
9. ShadowsEdge - town
12. Different55
13. NoNK - town

And Task, Onjit, and I are supposed to be scum?

Some actual reasoning behind any of those seemingly random leaps would be nice.

TaskManager · 2019-10-23 16:53:30

ShadowsEdge wrote:

I still stand by my assumption that Daneeko is town. I've explained my reasonings, and I will stand by them until there is unrefutable proof that Daneeko is not town.

What are your reasonings again

NoNK wrote:

mrjawapa is confident town, and if we can also write off zelda as confident town, that also points to daneeko + shadow being town

?????
How did you deduce any of that

mrjawapa

Different55 · 2019-10-23 17:18:40

TaskManager wrote:

ShadowsEdge wrote:
I still stand by my assumption that Daneeko is town. I've explained my reasonings, and I will stand by them until there is unrefutable proof that Daneeko is not town.
What are your reasonings again
NoNK wrote:
mrjawapa is confident town, and if we can also write off zelda as confident town, that also points to daneeko + shadow being town
?????
How did you deduce any of that

Making seemingly insane leaps and then never explaining them has kinda been his MO the whole game if you haven't noticed.

mrjawapa, Onjit

NoNK · 2019-10-23 17:30:47

Lunch break. Dumping thought process in this post, feel free to ask questions if I miss anything

ZeldaXD is the biggest tossup slot for me and here's why:

Points in favor of Town Zelda:

1. He's had mostly consistent arguments throughout the game, and some logic/supporting points.
2. Gut read says he doesn't feel like mafia. His tone also does not feel like mafia.

Points in favor of Scum Zelda:

1. Mafia love to hedge their bets. While is is likely to find scum ON town wagons, Zelda's major contributions to the game have been on day 1, voicing support for the peace wagon without voting on it. On day 2, he voiced support for the norwegianboy wagon (saying that potentially I was mafia partners with norwegianboy because we trusted each other). Zelda has stayed off 2 wagons on town while voicing support for them.
2. Now on day 3, Zelda is using wagons as a motivation to search for suspects, citing that myself, daneeko, and Onjit have been on both wagons. This shows that Zelda is clearly cognisant about how he and other people appear on wagons, meaning it's not a far fetched theory to say that mafia!zelda intentionally stayed off wagons that he had an opportunity to vote on and said he supported.
3. This point is further supported by the fact that he goes off on jawapa/daneeko/myself for not unvoting norwegianboy after claiming doctor even though he he gave up in a scummy way.

So my problem with zelda's slot is that his tone and motivation seems town in the moment, but when I go back and look at the posts he's been making and the agendas he has supported, it looks basically just like a lurker scum fishing for townreads by posting some logic and agreeing with whatever's popular.

So back to my point about how solving zelda's alignment solves the game, if zelda is scum, obviously we just lynch zelda and survive another day. However, if my tone read on zelda is accurate, and he is town, that points to shadow also being town since they are mutually townreading each other and have been soft-aligning (like how myself and norwegian were both town). Daneeko town from that requires some more explanation, explaining below:

Onjit and Daneeko are comparable in terms of content. Their ISO's are mostly funposting and they voted on town. The difference is that Daneeko has an excuse (he's a new player), and there's a reason to townread him (he didn't crack under pressure), whereas with onjit, he's kind of just... furthering the scum agenda and having fun doing it. Based on this, Daneeko is likely town, and if onjit is scum, he's pretty much clear in my eyes. If onjit flips town, our vigilante/serial killer should probably aim for Daneeko tonight, since it's more than likely there is one between them.

tl;dr of post 1:

The reasons for scumreading Daneeko apply to Onjit, but the reasons for townreading Daneeko don't apply to Onijt. Onjit is more likely mafia than Daneeko. Anyone townies that are scumreading daneeko and ignoring onjit need to re-evaluate based on this.
Zelda and Shadowsedge are likely the same alignment because of the way they're soft-aligning.
There are good arguments in favour of zelda being town or mafia and I'm having trouble discerning that. More on why that's important in the next post.

NoNK · 2019-10-23 17:42:49

At the start of day 2, my initial scumread on diff was for the reasons that he was sitting back and letting town implode. On day 2, he came under a lot of fire from myself and Kira and myself, and so my initial reasons for scumreading him were invalidated, so I bumped him up to town. At the end of the day I called him a confident town assuming norwegianboy was going to flip mafia and that he lead a successful wagon on mafia despite me fighting against it.

Today however, now that the heat has come off him, diff is back to his old ways. There's a few posts that I find scummy, but to keep myself from wallposting I'll just showcase the most obvious one:

We will have no solid proof for anybody. I'm not stuck on Daneeko and I'd happily go for anyone else but I'd love to hear your reasoning why you'd refuse to vote for Daneeko except for in currently-impossible circumstances.

So we're in MYLO, and your take on the game is that you prefer the consensus lynch, okay fair its a consensus for a reason, but "I'd happily go for anyone else"? Literally how on earth does a town aligned player come up with that statement when we're on the verge of losing the game altogether?

tl;dr

I don't think daneeko is mafia, I don't think task is mafia, I don't think mrjawapa is mafia, and I know I'm town. That narrows half the game down.

If zelda is town, the scumteam is likely Onjit / Diff + 1 because Onjit and Diff independently have the highest mafia equity and make sense as hedging partners (Onjit pushes, diff sits back and chills). The +1 is unlikely to be Zelda/Shadow and is probably one of my townreads.

If zelda is mafia, the scumteam is likely Zelda / Shadow + 1, because Zelda and Shadow have been aligning and staying ~in the shadows~ townreading each other. The +1 is almost certainly not different55, but could be Onjit.

Of the possibilities I listed, I think Onjit / Diff is the most probable option since the simplest possible answer is that Zelda/Shadow is a paranoia team based on faulty logic (like how NoNK + Norwegian was based on faulty logic), and Onjit and Diff have been independently scummy. And by occam's razor, the simplest solution is the most likely one.

Lynching daneeko today potentially loses us the game if you're assuming he's my partner, because I'm town.

NoNK · 2019-10-23 17:45:19

Now that I've written all that out, I think that Onjit is the safest lynch today, since he could fit in both possible scumteams.

I think zelda/shadow are more likely town then mafia. If Onjit flips town, the vigilante/serial killer should avoid shooting different55 tonight.

Daneeko is probably the mislynch that loses us the game and if you guys wanted to rule him out we should have lynched him yesterday like Kira, Jawapa and I wanted instead of pushing norwegianboy over the edge of self destruction.

TaskManager · 2019-10-23 17:50:32

NoNK wrote:

Zelda and Shadowsedge are likely the same alignment because of the way they're soft-aligning.

Not necessarily.

mrjawapa · 2019-10-23 17:56:56

Lol town is gonna get **** this game

daneeko · 2019-10-23 18:00:11

we are utterly jammed

Different55 · 2019-10-23 18:02:26

NoNK wrote:

diff is back to his old ways

Not back to my old ways, had work til late last night and class in the morning. I'm in a break right now and tbh I'm a tiny bit demoralized from last (game) night's events.

Here are my thoughts on the current setup.

This game's setup is most likely DV?TTTT. Considering there was no extra kill N1, it's most likely that there's a single V (one-shot vig). A lazy SK is also a possibility. It's possible but very unlikely that the ? wildcard is another V (full vig). It's most likely that the wildcard is a cop. It's also possible that it's a B, but it is incredibly unlikely that there are any M's considering there's no Serial Killer (DVMMTTT) or Inno Child (no confirmations from Mutant). It's also possible that the wildcard is another D, I don't see Norboy's role mentioning anything about being one-shot.

In any case, that means we're most likely dealing with 3 maf: 2 goons and a roleblocker.

NoNK wrote:

So we're in MYLO, and your take on the game is that you prefer the consensus lynch, okay fair its a consensus for a reason, but "I'd happily go for anyone else"? Literally how on earth does a town aligned player come up with that statement when we're on the verge of losing the game altogether?

Because I'm not confident in Daneeko and will welcome any stronger reasoning, such as what you've provided.

I'm good with lynching Onjit. Zelda also has some points in his favor as you mentioned in your first post there. I'd be more confident in an Onjit lynch.

NoNK · 2019-10-23 18:02:48

Different55 wrote:

Making seemingly insane leaps and then never explaining them has kinda been his MO the whole game if you haven't noticed.

Yes thank you for throwing shade at me that really helps town solve the game

Feel free to die any time

NoNK · 2019-10-23 18:03:34

Sorry ninja'd, didn't expect you to reply logically

NoNK · 2019-10-23 18:04:09

TaskManager wrote:

NoNK wrote:
Zelda and Shadowsedge are likely the same alignment because of the way they're soft-aligning.
Not necessarily.

Congrats, you disagreed on the least substantial part of my mega post, what's your take on Onjit?

TaskManager · 2019-10-23 18:11:56

NoNK wrote:

TaskManager wrote:
NoNK wrote:
Zelda and Shadowsedge are likely the same alignment because of the way they're soft-aligning.
Not necessarily.
Congrats, you disagreed on the least substantial part of my mega post

Am I not allowed to? Also how is that least substantial? You're assuming the alignment of two players

NoNK wrote:

what's your take on Onjit?

I think he'd be a fair choice but I still have doubts about it

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#576 2019-10-23 00:05:09

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

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