Mafia 26 [GAME OVER - TOWN WINS]

mutantdevle · 2019-07-06 21:33:00

I believe the claim. Maxi isn't who I'd choose to kill though. If I was a killing role I'd be more likely to kill someone who hasn't posted much and isn't likely to post much. Though considering you have a chance to die from using your role I'd have waited until there's something more substantial before risking a shot.

That said, I'm not completely opposed to a maxi shooting. I too have sensed something off about him this game. But it's not anything substantial and my main reservation is that since he's one of the more active players he's useful to us as either alignment.

LORD MASTER KING wrote:

Pharmacist get on me tonight.

Tbh, you don't need protection. If you shoot a townie then you'll die anyway and if you shoot a mafia then you'll lose your role. The mafia has no reason to waste a kill on you.

Processor · 2019-07-06 21:35:15

mutantdevle wrote:

Tbh, you don't need protection. If you shoot a townie then you'll die anyway and if you shoot a mafia then you'll lose your role. The mafia has no reason to waste a kill on you.

If a mafia is targeting you or your target in the same night as your nightkill, the mafia’s nightkill will take priority.

Yes it does make sense to protect him...

Also, mutantdevle is probably town (judging by his behavior and no night actions)

mutantdevle

Processor · 2019-07-06 21:36:03

not*

TaskManager · 2019-07-06 21:36:22

Processor wrote:

Your argument regarding "you're confusing and thats bad for town" is weak:
a) Mafia is all about reading between the lines. If you cannot be bothered to do that and take people's word at face value, you're doing all this wrong.
b) During the time I "confused" you guys, there was no useful discussion going on (as admitted by Luka and others)
c) My actions have generated a large amount of data, which we can now analyze to figure out who is scum. Alternative: "well, we have no idea what to do, so lets lynch someone inactive"
d) My recent posts have not been that confusing, I hope. I have reached the level of suspiciousness I wanted and feel comfortable here.

valid points, albeit with b) aren't you basically admitting it was mostly ****

mutantdevle · 2019-07-06 21:38:01

LORD MASTER KING wrote:

If anyone counter claims innocent bystander then I will shoot Task. 2 bystanders died, therefore you are still suspicious.

I think you've miscalculated how many innocent bystanders there are. Remember, only 5 of the 7 town PRs are used.

That makes 3 mafia, 5 power roles, and 5 bystanders. 2 bystanders are dead, Railmat claimed bystander, Maxi claimed bystander, that's 4/5.

Kira

Luka504 · 2019-07-06 21:38:33

Procesor wrote:

Luka504 has been only focused on me. This tunnel visioned approach to lynching me is what makes him scummy in my eyes, that's why I am currently campaigning to lynch him.

Right back at ya.
You've been campaigning solely against me as hard as I have campaigned against you. If you deem me suspicious for that, then you're also equally suspicious. You absolute hypocrite.

Kira · 2019-07-06 21:38:40

Processor wrote:

That was wild.
Anyway, me saying I am mafia does not confirm I am mafia. It was not a mistake to act like mafia, it was a deliberate decision I made to act this way.
You can see that I have a risky play style... Why would mafia play this way? Why would town play this way?
Post #76 gives a hypothetical explanation of why I am doing this, but please feel free to talk about other theories.
TaskManager wrote:
that kind of cryptic talk doesnt benefit the town a whole lot, if you're actually town it's only saving your **** from mafia attacks by giving you that attention but doesn't benefit anyone else
if you actually have something important to say then do it in a clear manner, i dont think a lot of people can be bothered with deciphering your messages
Your argument regarding "you're confusing and thats bad for town" is weak:
a) Mafia is all about reading between the lines. If you cannot be bothered to do that and take people's word at face value, you're doing all this wrong.
b) During the time I "confused" you guys, there was no useful discussion going on (as admitted by Luka and others)
c) My actions have generated a large amount of data, which we can now analyze to figure out who is scum. Alternative: "well, we have no idea what to do, so lets lynch someone inactive"
d) My recent posts have not been that confusing, I hope. I have reached the level of suspiciousness I wanted and feel comfortable here.
Luka504 has been only focused on me. This tunnel visioned approach to lynching me is what makes him scummy in my eyes, that's why I am currently campaigning to lynch him.
I haven't decided on TaskManager yet. I would consider lynching him, if Luka turns out red.
@Kira: We lynch Luka504, if he is mafia, you kill TaskManager. How's that?

If we lynch Luka and he is innocent then I won't be shooting him and instead i'll be shooting you.

However if he turns out to be Mafia then Task is done for.

MODMERGE:

!lynch Luka

mutantdevle · 2019-07-06 21:39:15

Processor wrote:

If a mafia is targeting you or your target in the same night as your nightkill, the mafia’s nightkill will take priority.
Yes it does make sense to protect him...

Oops, oversight on my part.

Kira · 2019-07-06 21:40:35

!lynch Luka

mutantdevle · 2019-07-06 21:46:43

I'm on board with this plan to be honest. With maxi claiming bystander I'm perfectly fine with his death and this lynch will resolve the Proc Vs Luka situation <--- I do think that's likely to be TvS.

!lynch Luka

Luka504 · 2019-07-06 21:48:09

In regards to Kira's claim, I do believe that he's honest, but I really think that it was a stupid move for him to claim so early.
Now we're in a position where we could potentially lose four townies in succession. Me if I'm lynched, proc if he's actually a townie, kira for misfiring, and whomever the mafia decides to kill tonight.

mutantdevle · 2019-07-06 21:53:15

Luka504 wrote:

In regards to Kira's claim, I do believe that he's honest, but I really think that it was a stupid move for him to claim so early.
Now we're in a position where we could potentially lose four townies in succession. Me if I'm lynched, proc if he's actually a townie, kira for misfiring, and whomever the mafia decides to kill tonight.

Okay, and?

Processor · 2019-07-06 21:53:40

LORD MASTER KING wrote:

If we lynch Luka and he is innocent then I won't be shooting him and instead i'll be shooting you.

I'm also claiming innocent bystander.
Also someone explain your math regarding innocent bystanders... We are 13, 3 mafia, 5 power roles and 5 innocent bystanders, right?

One last try:
My play style is risky.
Why would I play like this if I had a power role?
Why would I play like this if I was mafia?
I love playing citizen / innocent bystander because it allows me to do random risky things to progress the game forward. I believe this goal has been reached.

Kira, you're probably surviving the night because you'll be protected with a 2/3rds chance. That will deter mafia from targeting you.

Luka504 · 2019-07-06 21:59:00

*Sigh*
I was really hoping that I could avoid doing this, because there's good odds that it'll backfire spectacularly, but I really have no choice.

I'm the Ace Detective. And the person I investigated... Kira.
And yeah, he is the unstable gunman.

Look I know that it sounds way too convenient but I really just got unlucky in my pick last night.

I heavily advise you to not go through with your current plan, because as I stated before, this could lead to the town losing 4 of it's most active members in the snap of a finger.

mutantdevle, TaskManager

mutantdevle · 2019-07-06 22:01:01

Okay.

!vote TaskManager

If he flips town then shoot proc. Following this, at most we lose 2 innocent bystanders.

Norwee · 2019-07-06 22:05:51

- Lynch tally -
[3]Processor: Schlog, Luka504, Railmat
[2]Luka504: Processor, LORD MASTER KING
[1]Schlog: Onjit
[1]Crybaby: ASDruska
[1]Taskmanager: Mutantdevle

Majority required for lynch is [7]

Approx 41 hours remaining.

Processor · 2019-07-06 22:06:08

!unvote

ugh. We were going to lynch Luka504 for sure, right?

Two scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Luka504 is scum:
He knew he was going down and is now taking the real Ace Detective with him.
There is a 33.3% chance that we have no ace detective and he is bluffing.

Scenario 2 - Luka504 is Ace Detective:
Welp, good on you for claiming.

Question is, if we have a real, different Ace Detective (66.6% chance under the assumption that we're in Scenario 1), should they claim?
IMO yes, but I want your input on it.

---

Calculation:
We have 1 unstable gunman and 4 other power roles. These four power roles can be one of the remaining 6 power roles.
4 / 6 = 2 / 3 chance of Ace Detective

mutantdevle · 2019-07-06 22:07:46

Processor wrote:

Question is, if we have a real, different Ace Detective (66.6% chance under the assumption that we're in Scenario 1), should they claim?
IMO yes, but I want your input on it.

If Luka is fake claiming then any real ace detective should 100% come forward.

Processor · 2019-07-06 22:10:50

I have a better idea, let me draw it...

mutantdevle · 2019-07-06 22:11:34

I trust Luka's claim though. The percentage chance of mafia getting lucky in this situation is worryingly high; however, I was town reading Luka more than any other player before the claims started happening so I'm cool with it.

As far as I'm concerned, you (Processor) and TaskManager should be 1v1ing right now over who dies first. One of you gets lynched now and the other gets shot if the lynched player is town.

TaskManager · 2019-07-06 22:23:49

Processor wrote:

Question is, if we have a real, different Ace Detective (66.6% chance under the assumption that we're in Scenario 1), should they claim?

definitely
we (hopefully) have a doc
if theres 2 potential mafia targets (kira & luka) and we have a doc then assuming both maf and doc pick at random, theres a 50% chance doc succeeds
though how likely is it that doc is not in the game
2/3 if luka's claim is legit?
its also going to win us maf lynch

mutantdevle wrote:

As far as I'm concerned, you (Processor) and TaskManager should be 1v1ing right now over who dies first

i claimed my role and didnt see any other questions so i dont know what is to 1v1 here

Processor · 2019-07-06 22:26:48

I'll defend myself after we've discussed the matter with Luka504's claim, because I believe it is more important than town losing an innocent bystander (me).

Anyway, this is the situation:

Assume for a second, that Luka504 is mafia.
There are two outcomes for the mafia Luka504.

33%) He convinces town that he is definitely Ace Detective and very likely wins the game.
67%) He reveals the identity of the ace detective.

Both situations are BETTER than just getting lynched, which is what was going to happen otherwise!
Smart move and a very safe move for Luka504. A scum Luka504 with this brilliant idea would have always done this. There was no downside to this claim for the scum Luka504.

So all you can say to defend him is:
a) Luka504 is too dumb to come up with this plan (I think he's smart and capable of coming up with this)
b) Luka504 was not suspicious before

How do we proceed? I personally was convinced that he is scum before the claim.
Do I want to lose the game with a 33% probability OR potentially lose an ace detective?

I'll go with the second option. I think the real Ace Detective, if another exists, should NOT reveal.

I propose a policy lynch, because Luka504 has failed to prove his role. He conveniently checked Kira last night? Oh come on!
We should lynch Luka504 as we were going to, because Luka504's claim is not verifiable 33% of the time.
33% is too high for me to let it pass.

!lynch Luka504

MODMERGE:

Put in simpler terms:

The role claim by Luka504 does not say anything about Luka504's role, because we cannot verify it. Luka504 did not risk anything when making his claim, because the town was almost certainly going to lynch him. His claim is therefore worthless and we should ignore it and lynch him anyway as we were going to before.

Zumza

Luka504 · 2019-07-06 22:46:59

Processor wrote:

The role claim by Luka504 does not say anything about Luka504's role, because we cannot verify it.

Yes we can though? My role is to quite literally find out other people's exact roles. Testing me requires only one night.

I also find it interesting how hard you're pushing for me to die asap. Is there any reason you want me gone?

ASDruska · 2019-07-06 22:48:02

well im keeping my lynch as crybaby until the majority gets closer

im not sure whats going on at this point

Kira · 2019-07-06 23:00:50

TaskManager wrote:

I don't find luka's posts to be suspicious, at least I didn't find anything odd or scum indicative in them

This post is really suspicious to me.

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