Mafia 13 game [TOWN WINS!]

Luka504 · 2017-08-16 21:58:19

Devlin wrote:

Processor wrote:
Sounds like a good idea. +1
!nolynch
Before voting no lynch you have to remember we need Luka, Evilbunny and AlphaJon to be in on it for it to work. If any one of those 3 decides this isn't a good idea then we can't go through with it.

Ill need a bit of time to think about it. This strategy is kinda weird especially since Devlin for most of the game you mostly just wanted to lynch someone who was most likely scum, and now you are tossing the nolynch strategy? Kinda... Suspicious...
But playing the prisoners dilemma on the mafia and the SK sounds intriguing and has potential.

Evilbunny · 2017-08-16 21:59:28

My plan was basically for if me or alpha died tonight we would have a guarantee who did what but yea it doesn't really matter. I guess we can no lynch, I just feel like that might be too passive. We have the numbers for it to work so if we can't agree on a lynch then I guess it's ok.

also I hope that whatever is happening with jawapa's body isn't going to screw us up

mutantdevle

Luka504 · 2017-08-16 22:00:59

Also I'll !unvote just for now.

TaskManager · 2017-08-16 22:06:25

Vote count:

[1] Slabdrill - Evilbunny
[1] No lynch - Processor

5 votes needed for majority.

The day ends in 25 hours.

Luka504 wrote:

Also I'll !unvote just for now.

I mean there's nothing to !unvote for you but sure I guess.

Gosha, Luka504

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 22:08:44

I've done some thinking and I don't think we actually have to no lynch since that only affects the probability of resulting in an even or odd number of players. Having 1 less day to do things isn't the end of the world but I think no lynching is the safest option but idk. Right now this whole plan possibility is just a confusing mess in my brain. Tomorrow I will write it all down and post it with the maths but for now it is getting late for me and I can only reply on phone.

Gosha · 2017-08-16 22:13:48

Sorry for being extra suspicious.

I find something wrong in proc. He is behaves too good with me. Please note that i've been attacking him for 2 days straight.
But now he is too nice.

Processor wrote:

I don't feel like Gosha is SK or scum tbh.

Processor wrote:

Gosha has been attacking me and just me a lot lately. I don't think he is a good candidate for SK or mafia. I wouldn't support a gosha lynch atm though.

Processor wrote:

I'm fine with either Slab or Gosha, but I'd prefer Slab.

I am just saying that if you find me dead next day, these actions would put proc last in the list of guilties
don't believe him c:

Gosha · 2017-08-16 22:14:46

"He is behaves too good with me"

why can't i edit my posts

Evilbunny · 2017-08-16 22:37:46

Devlin wrote:

Having 1 less day to do things isn't the end of the world but I think no lynching is the safest option but idk

Sure it is the safest, it always is. The question is do we want to play it safe or try to actually get something done and risk a mislynch.

!unvote
You guys seem pretty turned off on the idea of lynching slab, so let's consider Proc now.
It's ok that he was against my plan, but he went against it without defending himself personally. Almost like he didn't want to say anything concrete about himself.
I don't trust gosha but I think he does have a point, if gosha is killed, Proc is still a very likely suspect.

mutantdevle

hummerz5 · 2017-08-16 22:43:40

hey proc is all well and good but I mean I could go for that onjit character personally. could probably campaign for it but that's a lot of reading

I was concerned about your idea that not lynching was good but I guess you could make the argument that a mislynch is worse. However, to what extent does the logic cascade? I mean technically you could say d1 let's not lynch because we could find stuff out tomorrow! what if tonight we don't get anything useful? rip two more folk for nothing? or am I being too pessimistic?

out of curiosity, would not lynching be better than a sure lynch?

hummerz5 · 2017-08-16 22:50:54

this might have been said but also even if the sk chooses not to kill anyone and we end up lynching who we blocked it's essentially the same as if we blocked the wrong person and someone still died. the end result is that someone dies.

Evilbunny

Gosha · 2017-08-16 22:52:41

hummerz5 wrote:

out of curiosity, would not lynching be better than a sure lynch?

We know fo sure at least 3 town roles
we can: Go for luck and try to get a scum. If we fail - well, there are a lot of town left and we will decrease a long list of "maybe" scums, if we do not fail - great! Less chance for scum-kill next night
or we can nolynch and look how scum kills other towns at night

in any way lynching would be good. But i am not sure who we should lynch.
definitely not me

i was against the proc since begning for different reasons. Tbh i think i am not lynched right now only because of him but i still don't beleive him

i won't !vote for now but if people turn on proc - i'm in

hummerz5 · 2017-08-16 23:01:40

Evilbunny wrote:

Hummerz if you have something to say that confirms both you and proc then I think you might as well say it.

btw what makes you think I'm confirming proc in anything

Evilbunny · 2017-08-17 00:42:30

hummerz5 wrote:

Evilbunny wrote:
Hummerz if you have something to say that confirms both you and proc then I think you might as well say it.
btw what makes you think I'm confirming proc in anything

you sounded confident and I'm not used to that coming from you

Kira · 2017-08-17 00:53:18

I agree with you completely

AlphaJon

Onjit · 2017-08-17 00:55:32

Kira what are you doing here game 12 ended weeks ago

AlphaJon, TaskManager

AlphaJon · 2017-08-17 01:53:00

I guess JaWapa is haunting Kira now.

hummerz5 · 2017-08-17 03:01:51

Evilbunny wrote:

hummerz5 wrote:
Evilbunny wrote:
Hummerz if you have something to say that confirms both you and proc then I think you might as well say it.
btw what makes you think I'm confirming proc in anything
you sounded confident and I'm not used to that coming from you

no, like, I'm just saying what I've been saying that proc is quiet and a good candidate. not as good as onjit tho. like near-term sort

Processor · 2017-08-17 05:16:26

Evilbunny wrote:

It's ok that he was against my plan, but he went against it without defending himself personally.

What do you want me to say about myself?? What the hell?

This is such a stupid reason, it doesn't make any sense and it is worse than your flawed plan.

Processor · 2017-08-17 05:17:40

IMO vote slab, I still don't understand why you guys magically consider him town suddenly.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-17 10:29:18

Hypothosis:

Devlin wrote:

Since there is possibly going to be 2 night kills how about we don't lynch anyone today? That way the number of players remaining will remain an odd number which means the town can last for at least 1 more night. The SK and the last Mafia will also have the knowledge that if one of them doesn't kill it will ruin this plan and cause us to have an even number of players anyway. But who will be the one to not kill? Can the trust the other player to let them perform the kill? Ultimately it could end up that neither of them kill. Having no one die is actually good for the town, because it means a free day of investigation.
As for what that investigation will be; let's just assume we stick with Evilbunny's idea but change it a little. With the decision to have a no kill that still leaves us with 4 targets most of the town considers: Onjit, Gosha, Slabdrill and Proc. AlphaJon you could flip and coin to see if you should role block Slabdrill or Onjit and Evilbunny will flip a coin to see if they should watch Proc or Gosha.
This will create uncertainty in both the SK and the Mafia whilst allowing the town to receive the results they desire. If the quick maths I just did is correct, it means we will either end the night knowing who at least 1 scum is OR we will still have an even number of town members which would allow for an extra day of night investigation.

This plan is kinda possible even if we don't no lynch.

*All of this assumes that Onjit, Proc, Slabdrill and Gosha are the only suspects.

There are 3 results kill wise during the night.
2 deaths, 1 death or no death.

If there are 2 deaths:
- If both players Evilbunny is choosing between kills then we will know who one of them are.
- The person AlphaJon role blocked will become confirmed town.
- If the person Evilbunny chooses does not kill then they will also be confirmed town and the person AlphaJon does not roleblock and the person Evilbunny does not watch are confirmed scum.
Conclusion: We are guaranteed to eliminate a suspect without killing them. We have a chance to catch one of the scum. We have a chance to catch both scum.

If there is 1 death:
- If one of the scum is on Evilbunny's target list and he chooses correctly then we will know who they are.
- If Evilbunny gives no result then both his potential targets will still be suspects.
- Whoever AlpahJon role blocks we will assume to be scum. This will either result in a mislynch or we will get a scum. AlphaJon's other potential target will still be a suspect.
Conclusion: We will probably eliminate a suspect through a no lynch. We have no way of confirming any of the suspects as town. We have a chance to catch 1 scum.

If there are no deaths:
- No one can be confirmed as either town or scum from Evilbunny's night action.
- Whoever AlpahJon role blocks we will assume to be scum. This will either result in a mislynch or we will get a scum. AlphaJon's other potential target will still be a suspect.
Conclusion: We will probably eliminate a suspect through a no lynch. We have no way of confirming any of the suspects as town.

Now, from that it is clear to see that if both the scum kill we will make A LOT of progress. And if they don't kill then we are likely to just lynch whoever is role blocked.

So in theory all the scum have to do to survive is not kill right? Wrong. If one of the scum is one of the people that have the potential to be role blocked then they will know they have a 50% chance of being hung the next day anyway. As a result they would want there to be 2 kills in order to increase the chances that the other scum gets lynched instead of them.
Furthermore, the less they kill the less progress they make. The town will be the only ones to make progress as we will narrow down the suspects through a mislynch until eventually we catch the Mafia. We can literally just keep repeating this plan until we win.

Another reason they may want to kill is to stop the plan from working. If either AlphaJon or Evilbunny die then this plan loses a lot of ground. This is where Luka comes in. Luka will not tell us who he plans to protect, he will just pick or use a RNG to decide between the 2. This means that the scum wont know if their attack will succeed. As a result they will likely want to kill Luka to make sure we can only do this plan once. The problem is they may both end up attacking Luka but only 1 person can kill him, if both of them attack Luka then they have a higher chance of being caught. So one must decide no to attack him. But since they can't talk to each other they can't negotiate who will attack him and as a result they may both decide not to attack him resulting in a win situation for the town.

So basically we don't really have much to lose from this plan. The amount of uncertainty and anxiety this will give to the scum is greatly worth the risk of accidentally lynching 1 Townie. To reduce the effects of the mislynch I think that AlphaJon should choose between the 2 most suspicious people.

So here's what I suggest for if we don't lynch:
AlphaJon should choose or use a RNG to decide between either Gosha or Proc to role block. The reason I suggest it to be these 2 is that they are the most suspicious and whoever AlphaJon picks is probably going to be lynched.
Evilbunny should choose or use a RNG to decide between either Slabdrill or Onjit to watch. Evilbunny's results are more accurate than AlphaJon's.
Luka should choose or us a RNG to decide whether to protect AlphaJon or Evilbunny.

However, I have come to the conclusion that we don't have to go for a no lynch, in fact it is probably better if we do lynch someone.

If we only had 3 suspects then we can get both AlphaJon and Evilbunny to choose or use a RNG to decide between which one they watch or role block. This would work because if they choose the same target then it will confirm their role to us. Whoever AlphaJon role blocks will be the primary suspect if there is no kill. But if Evilbunny also watched them and found they did nothing then we know it was 1 or both of the other 2 suspects. Additionally if Evilbunny found they did visit someone (who wouldn't have died) it would be safe to assume they tried to kill them.
To be honest I think narrowing it down to 3 suspects and using this method will be better than having 4 suspects because it means we will have 2/3 chance of them picking scum rather than a 1/2 chance.

TLDR: we should lynch someone today and then at night AlphaJon and Evilbunny should randomly choose between the remaining 3 suspects to use their night action on whilst Luka randomly chooses which one of the 2 to save.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-17 10:31:31

Oh crap just realised we only have 13 hours left :O

Luka504 · 2017-08-17 10:34:15

Processor wrote:

IMO vote slab, I still don't understand why you guys magically consider him town suddenly.

Please, Slabdrill is still the best lynch target, but with Devlins nolynch strategy i kind of took a pause from attacking him at the moment.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-17 11:11:28

Luka504 wrote:

Processor wrote:
IMO vote slab, I still don't understand why you guys magically consider him town suddenly.
Please, Slabdrill is still the best lynch target, but with Devlins nolynch strategy i kind of took a pause from attacking him at the moment.

We no longer have to no lynch. It's probably better if we do lynch someone today as it leaves us with 3 suspects after that (so only 3 people to use night abilities on) which heightens our odds.

Whilst the magic that tells me not to vote Slabdrill is still present for me, I would be willing to vote for him since we have such little time left of this day.

Onjit · 2017-08-17 11:21:44

!vote Slabdrill

I've got a pretty good idea of what is actually going on here, based on tonight's outcome, and if i survive, I'll reveal all.

Something ****'s going on, and I just need one more thing to confirm it.

I'll try to post again later again tonight, but if I don't, I'll probably miss the end of D3 (it ends at like 8am for me)

hummerz5 · 2017-08-17 13:09:28

hi guys. I'm not the best at mafia and I'm getting a bit tired of checking in to see if I'm dead or not. maybe I'm not awake and thinking straight

I am cop. n1 onjit is "guilty" and n2 slabdrill is "town"

you'll get your proof if A) there is no witch and B) you lynch onjit now.

I'd love to have some protection to try and finish the game off. I figure if it's between proc and gosha we investigate one and lynch the other if nothing else. if not, I'm jumping prematurely.

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Re: Mafia 13 game [TOWN WINS!]

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