Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

TaskManager · 2016-04-09 14:48:08

Eh there's nothing more to talk about so far but im not giving away the discussion time by simply voting for a nolynch.

Anak · 2016-04-09 15:03:53

Anak wrote:

I'm on the fence about actually voting bc although if we don't start voting quickly things may get out of hand, there's too little people playing for us to get it wrong.

Standing by this, but like Maxi I don't want to hammer a nolynch just yet.

AlphaJon · 2016-04-09 15:28:08

Kaslai wrote:

The conversation has hit an awkward silence...
I'm willing to just call AlphaJon the Village Idiot, and I'm still standing by my nolynch.

I may be a village idiot, but in the meantime, if you pay attention, you will get reads on other people than myself from this (at least for the ones who posted enough)

Bobithan

Processor · 2016-04-09 15:47:50

Hi,

Oh my god.

AlphaJon and Onjit are suspecious.

I'll write my analysis in a second.

Onjit

TaskManager · 2016-04-09 17:11:15

wait
this just came to my mind
what if alphajon (assuming he's scum) had to retract the claim under teammate's influence? like, they had a misunderstanding in planning, his teammate went mad and was like "RETRACT THAT CLAIM NOW NUB THEY WONT SUSPECT U ANYWAY CUS DEY THINK DAT WOULD BE 2 SUICIDAL FOR MAFIA 2 DO"
idk, to me seems like the only possible explanation to retracting a claim in 7 hours (as opposed to few days)

Processor · 2016-04-09 18:31:48

Analysis on AlphaJon v1 by Processor

This analysis will be a bit different. In game 6 I focused a lot on the interactions between players, it is too early to do that here right now.

So, AlphaJon decides to claim bulletproof, and after a short time, unclaims.

AlphaJon wrote:

I actually believe this setup to have good enough players to understand that I wouldn't blindy claim a role just so I become "towny".

Your claim seemed to be exactly for getting towncred, until you were somewhat called out for it. SmittyW has also made vague references to being a PR which probably scared you to revert that claim.
Honestly, I find it hard to believe you actually wanted to unclaim at one point, it seems more like something you thought of as soon as you saw you made a mistake...
I believe you are actually a good enough player to know to wait longer before unclaiming, I think the cause of your unclaim is something else: a slip.

You then start explaining you unclaim by using falicious logic. Let me point out the most obvious ones:

Fallacy 1:

AlphaJon wrote:

So, I'm going to explain it using maths. There was a 1/3 chance of a bulletproof being there. On that bulletproof, mafia has a 1/7 chance of targeting him. That makes it a 1/21 chance, which is ~5%. And a 5% chance of a 1 night delay isn't that much powerful.

You make it sound like bulletproof is useless. No, it is NOT.
On the 2/3rds chance we don't have a BP, we will have another PR with the same value.
How valuable is a bulletproof? As valuable as a doctor, as row 3 and C show us:
3: Bulletproof / Tracker / Goon
C: Doctor / Tracker / Goon

The probability of mafia targetting a bulletproof is either 1/7th (he/she can increase this probability with their behavior, see SmittyW.) or 0%. Nothing in between.

This probability increases every night.

Fallacy 2:

AlphaJon wrote:

Unless the actual bulletproof didn't bother counterclaiming, which I doubt, there is no bulletproof

AlphaJon wrote:

Processor wrote:
I can see a sherrif revealing themselves. Or maybe even the doctor, a 1v1 PR for Scum trade isn't THAT bad.
Pls, no. Having them reveal would have been doom. And the players in here are quite good. I don't see anyone here claiming these 2.

Our doctor roleclaiming causes him to die that night, rendering his ability useless. Our bulletproof claiming causes him to never be targetted, making his ability useless.

Scum never attacking BP means that they will get the other PR sooner, but in the case of a doctor, his claim would cause scum to waste one night's kill on him.
Therefore, a bulletproof roleclaiming is WORSE than a doctor claiming.

Should a bulletproof/doctor still roleclaim? If it helps town lynch a scum (AlphaJon) then yes!
Even if AlphaJon isn't a consort but goon, it would prevent the other consort from using their PR ability, essentially turning them into a goon.

How much is consort's ability worth? As much as a heal. Compare B and 2:
2: Doctor/Sherrif/Consort
B: Citizen/Sherrif/Goon

A doctor vs consort trade is super favorable for town, because you can simplify it to a citizen vs goon trade, which is always favorable, because it gives us a free mislynch.
A bulletproof vs consort trade is less favorable, but still good for town.

Fallacy 3:

AlphaJon wrote:

There is a Bulletproof(33%), or there isn't(67%).

Anak wrote:

I'm curious as to what would have happened if there was a bulletproof. I don't envision that would have ended well for you, AlphaJon.

Anak puts it quite well.

Causing a mislynch brings us 33% closer to losing this game! (We can only afford two mislynches)
Assuming we would lynch AlphaJon if a counterclaim pops up: In which of the 6 variations of the game will a mislynch happen?
A: Other bulletproof counterclaims
B: Sherrif counterclaims
C: Doctor counterclaims
2: Sherrif/Doctor counterclaim
3: Other bulletproof counterclaims

Only in option 1 nobody would counterclaim. The chance of a claim is 84%. No townie would risk bringing their town 33% closer to defeat 84% of the time.

Fallacy 4:

AlphaJon wrote:

Now, in order to help identify the setup we're in, I'm going to make a claim.

I'm going to argue that the setup we are in is only important for scum, not town.

Here's why:
- Doctor and tracker should roleclaim as soon as they find a scum, they wont wait to find the next scum because they might die any time
- Scum on the other hand, can adjust their behavior if they know who they are dealing with.

Fallacy 5:

AlphaJon wrote:

But I went for bulletproof because it's fundamentally the only PR who doesn't risk death by claiming.

His utility dies as soon as he claims, he is no longer a true PR. Do you know who else doesn't risk death by claiming? Scum. Claiming BP is the safest option for scum in this game.

Fallacy 6:

AlphaJon wrote:

- He doesn't counterclaim, making the overall thing useless. (This one has a <5% chance to happen if you ask me, because why would the legit one not counterclaim?)

The standard level of significance is not even applicible here, wtf? Even if it was, here's an XKCD: https://xkcd.com/882/

Slip 1:

AlphaJon wrote:

Also, a doctor claiming bulletproof would have been epic, but sadly I believe (s)he didn't think of it

This make you sound oddly certain of a doc existing...
Setup 2? Seems like it...

Slip 2:

AlphaJon wrote:

Except hardclaiming my actual role, I keep that as a last resort.

Is this your way of saying "psst I am a PR but don't tell anyone"?

Seriously, this seems to imply you aren't a citizen, so what are you? Who would actually claim bulletproof as another PR? That's a super risky move... Unless, yknow, you are scum.

---

The explanations AlphaJon has been giving aren't really convincing.
Therefore I will !vote AlphaJon.

Kaslai · 2016-04-09 20:21:18

All of those fallacy explanations are spot on.

!unvote

I'm willing to take my vote off to ensure the day plays out a little longer, at least.

Processor wrote:

Is this your way of saying "psst I am a PR but don't tell anyone"?
Seriously, this seems to imply you aren't a citizen, so what are you? Who would actually claim bulletproof as another PR? That's a super risky move... Unless, yknow, you are scum.

Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that, though the phrasing is done in such a way that it might imply that his role might not be citizen.

maxi123 wrote:

what if alphajon (assuming he's scum) had to retract the claim under teammate's influence? like, they had a misunderstanding in planning, his teammate went mad and was like "RETRACT THAT CLAIM NOW NUB THEY WONT SUSPECT U ANYWAY CUS DEY THINK DAT WOULD BE 2 SUICIDAL FOR MAFIA 2 DO"

Also a good point.

Processor

RhazzleFrazzle · 2016-04-10 01:16:56

Vote count (I do these remember?):

Maxi123:AlphaJon, Maxi123

Kaslai:Calicara

AlphaJon:Processor

Nolynch:Onjit

5 votes needed for majority. Less than 48 hours remain.

Onjit · 2016-04-10 01:21:05

RhazzleFrazzle wrote:

Vote count (I do these remember?):
Maxi123:AlphaJon, Maxi123
Kaslai:Calicara
AlphaJon:Processor
Nolynch:Onjit
5 votes needed for majority. Less than 48 hours remain.

Calicara voted nolynch but messed up the formatting

Calicara · 2016-04-10 01:38:08

Processors analysis was interesting... But at this point it's still hard to say. For all we know Proc is Mafia trying to get a town lynched. I stand by my,

!vote noylynch

And I apologize for slight inactivity. I'm on a small recess from college till tuesday.

AlphaJon

SmittyW · 2016-04-10 01:45:50

Voting !nolynch is always terrible for the town. We might not actually lynch today but ending the day early puts us at a disadvantage. Since our night actions won't be reported, we have to speak as much as possible. I know it might be quiet but we have to come up with a strategy to find the mafia. I commend AlphaJon for his wacky attempt, whether he is townie or mafia.

Bobithan, AlphaJon

TaskManager · 2016-04-10 02:02:55

dang proc thats a lot of text
i agree that smitty's post hinting that he is a PR could be another cause for alphajon's claim pullback
then again, that is if he's scum. and if he's town i still dont understand what was this all drama for, other than making town quit the "fun mode"

RhazzleFrazzle wrote:

Maxi123:AlphaJon, Maxi123

did you actually count my vote on myself
lol
i didnt even know thats possible
!unvote

Processor · 2016-04-10 12:53:55

In many different sections of my analysis I explained why I believe that AlphaJon is scum. His claim is stupid no matter who he is, but if you at it closely, you see a lot off scum motivation, and no town motivation. There were exactly 0 benefits for town in either outcome, so it is ignorant if you just close your eyes and call him a VI.

Calicara wrote:

Processors analysis was interesting... But at this point it's still hard to say. For all we know Proc is Mafia trying to get a town lynched.

Um, what?

First of all, this is a logical fallacy! https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/ad-hominem
Please don't do that again D:

I never asked anyone to trust me, you should read what I say (I used logic by the way!), think for yourself and don't follow anyone blindly.

You completely dodge the content of my post, you describe it all with "interesting" (my post has 1000+ words in it, please). Overall it comes across as if you are trying to defend AlphaJon without delivering any valid arguments. You also go on to vote nolynch even though we already explained why that is a terrible terrible idea:

maxi123 wrote:

Eh there's nothing more to talk about so far but im not giving away the discussion time by simply voting for a nolynch.

Let me also point out that in the last game, a lot of scum (iirc: W24, Luka501, Anak) voted for nolynch.

It would be nice if you could explain in a not-so-vague way why you think that my reads are not valid.

AlphaJon · 2016-04-10 13:51:57

Onjit wrote:

Maxi123:AlphaJon, Maxi123

I completely forgot about that.
!unvote

Processor's wall of text:

(Not stricly required for everyone to read, it's mostly replying to Processor's wall of text, except maybe for the last few lines)

▼It's kinda long

Processor wrote:

SmittyW has also made vague references to being a PR which probably scared you to revert that claim.

Wat? No, he didn't, not to my knowledge at least.

Processor wrote:

I believe you are actually a good enough player to know to wait longer before unclaiming

I kinda have to admit this one.

Processor wrote:

Therefore, a bulletproof roleclaiming is WORSE than a doctor claiming.

No. I already explained why several times. This one's almost going against me just for the sake of it.

Processor wrote:

I'm going to argue that the setup we are in is only important for scum, not town.

Why is it so? For example, if we are in the middle row with the consort out, the sheriff can freely investigate while the doctor protects him (=> See Bobithan in game 6)

Processor wrote:

Slip 1:
AlphaJon wrote:
Also, a doctor claiming bulletproof would have been epic, but sadly I believe (s)he didn't think of it
This make you sound oddly certain of a doc existing...
Setup 2? Seems like it...

What makes this a slip, really? The sentence basically sums up to "If I was doctor, I would claim bulletproof"

Processor wrote:

Slip 2:
AlphaJon wrote:
Except hardclaiming my actual role, I keep that as a last resort.
Is this your way of saying "psst I am a PR but don't tell anyone"?
Seriously, this seems to imply you aren't a citizen, so what are you? Who would actually claim bulletproof as another PR? That's a super risky move... Unless, yknow, you are scum.

Whataver my role is, if I get lynched, you're going with me next day(not night, day)
And claiming is useless, it's not like you're looking to both sides of the things. You're only looking to the incriminating side.

Btw, I already claimed:
Ice Mage: Every night you may create ice cream to give to another player, selaying his night action by 10 minutes. You are immune to the Water Mage's rain, because you live in an Igloo. The Earth Mage is immune to your ice creams, because he only likes to eat dirt.

On the upside, I probably won't get nightkilled until late-game, if at all.

Now, I looked back at the posts, and I made this little thingy. This game basically can be divided into small groups.

Processor & Kaslai: These 2 are strongly against me. They share a similar mindset. But they don't refer to each other much. Don't know if this is intentional or not.
SmittyW & Maxi123: I don't really know how to describe it. They believe (or believed?) that my claim is (kinda) audacious, and that mafia maybe wouldn't want such a risk right in day one. (This is very approximative, they don't really have a strong opinion about it)
Anak & Bobithan: These 2 are kind of sceptic, but not nearly as close as Processor and Kaslai. If roles were switched, I'd probably be in this group.
Onjit & Calicara: Lol, if I expected these 2 to end up in the same group. They are relatively neutral. They also don't post very much.

One of these groups is mafia. Find one, and you get the other.
If someone from one of these groups dies to the mafia, it doesn't confirm the other in any way, though.
If you want to put me in a group, the one I'd fit most in would be the Anak and Bobithan one.

Bobithan · 2016-04-10 16:03:12

I really, really doubt that the mafia lies in one of those pairs. Just because they act similar doesn't mean they are paired, if anything I think they'd be more careful about that and try to avoid it.

Also I'd love for Calicara and Onjit to give some actual insight rather than continuing to nolynch on day 1. We actually have a good amount of content to work with here that's not just fluff. We can't really even expect to get much to work with however the night goes anyways so there's no point in waiting around for somebody to die.

Processor · 2016-04-10 16:51:44

I like how AlphaJon casually excluded himself...

Processor · 2016-04-10 17:06:49

AlphaJon wrote:

Processor wrote:
SmittyW has also made vague references to being a PR which probably scared you to revert that claim.
Wat? No, he didn't, not to my knowledge at least.

This is the probably most important post D1:

SmittyW. wrote:

I hope I am protected tonight...

So please.

AlphaJon wrote:

No. I already explained why several times. This one's almost going against me just for the sake of it.

I also explained why I disagree with it. Just because a doctor dies doesn't mean it is a worse outcome than a BP dying. Both roles are going to lose their utility.

AlphaJon wrote:

Why is it so? For example, if we are in the middle row with the consort out, the sheriff can freely investigate while the doctor protects him (=> See Bobithan in game 6)

Sure, but a BP claim is not going to help a sheriff know this. If anything, it only proves the absence of a sheriff AND doctor.

Both the doctor and sheriff, when given, know that there is no BP in town, your claim does not help them!

In general, yes it would help, but you did not have this in mind when you were claiming BP!

For scum on the other hand... its a different story. They will know the exact setup and are able to adjust their play. (They know the decisive information: presence of a consort or the lack thereof)

AlphaJon wrote:

What makes this a slip, really? The sentence basically sums up to "If I was doctor, I would claim bulletproof"

The wording was odd, that's all. I won't look into it that much, there are more important aspects.

AlphaJon wrote:

Btw, I already claimed:
Ice Mage: Every night you may create ice cream to give to another player, selaying his night action by 10 minutes. You are immune to the Water Mage's rain, because you live in an Igloo. The Earth Mage is immune to your ice creams, because he only likes to eat dirt.

I'm pretty sure my points against you were super serious, this has no place in this discussion.

AlphaJon wrote:

On the upside, I probably won't get nightkilled until late-game, if at all.

Huh?

RhazzleFrazzle · 2016-04-11 03:20:29

18 hours remain

AlphaJon · 2016-04-11 12:08:01

So, I'm posting this from work since there is not that much time left.

Reply to Processor's reply v1:

▼Not really long, just saving up space

I don't know about the rest of the town, but I believe you're seeing me as nothing more than the perfect lynchee candidate. You're being overconfident over what I may be, and it seems like nothing I say can convince you otherwise.
I will say it: I believe you are a mafia member who uses me as a scapegoat/way to reduce the number of townies.
!vote Processor

Processor · 2016-04-11 14:46:54

AlphaJon wrote:

I'm sure you would understand, if you place yourself from the mafia perspective. Like they are going to kill the one who could potentially get lynched

Ah that makes sense, but then... So you are admitting being scummy? Are you intentionally trying to be scummy?!

AlphaJon wrote:

You're being overconfident over what I may be, and it seems like nothing I say can convince you otherwise.

This confirms that the issues that I have pointed are logically sound. Otherwise you would be able to disagree with me using concrete examples.

I have been called out for my overconfidence multiple times in the past games, it's the way I play. (proof, I'm sure there are countless examples of this)
However, it turns out you never complained it in previous games, what makes you think I am scum this time? Is it because I am attacking you? That's biased.
You're trying to defend yourself by being aggressive, I really dislike that.

You are currently the scummiest person in town, you agree with that yourself. Then you think my behavior is not natural if I try to lynch you for it? What kind of logic is that?

You're one of the best players of this game, and were it not for all these obvious scum hints I see all over the place, I would be very reluctant to vote for you. Your responses aren't too convincing either...

AlphaJon wrote:

I believe you are a mafia member who uses me as a scapegoat/way to reduce the number of townies.

You can literally copy paste that for anyone who votes for you.

You just completely ignore my perfectly logical arguments and make a sudden accusation without really backing it up.
Don't tell me that's how you expect town to find scum, because if we just start making blank accusations we will get nowhere.

TaskManager · 2016-04-11 14:54:38

tbh it seems odd to me that alphajon puts so much emphasis on his actual role
proc has been also getting somewhat scummy in my eyes recently but he acted pushy in other games as well, i guess his pushing behavior alone is not yet enough to judge on his alignment..? we'll see

Bobithan wrote:

Also I'd love for Calicara and Onjit to give some actual insight rather than continuing to nolynch on day 1.

i agree. kaslai and anak weren't very active as well last 2 days

Kaslai · 2016-04-11 14:57:00

maxi123 wrote:

i agree. kaslai and anak weren't very active as well last 2 days

There have also only been 12 posts since my last post, most of which don't need to be replied to.

I'm going to side with Processor on this one. Either Alpha or Proc has to die before day two. Let it be...

!vote AlphaJon

Processor

AlphaJon · 2016-04-11 15:16:39

Proc, you probably don't realise it, but if I get lynched, you will probably get lynched D2.
And no, I'm not claiming anything, because claiming a PR is like saying "mafia please kill me", with the exception of the bulletproof, and claiming citizen is like saying "town please lynch me".

AlphaJon · 2016-04-11 15:19:00

Oh, and last game, I didn't say anything because you were actually right. I was with Onjit and Luka504, remember?
@Kaslai: you're putting yourself in a bad position by following him.

Processor · 2016-04-11 15:41:51

AlphaJon wrote:

Proc, you probably don't realise it, but if I get lynched, you will probably get lynched D2.

That's okay, we can afford a mislynch after a scum kill

Seriously tho, what is this going to mean? Ooooo I am so scared I should probably back off... no!
First you vote on me for no real reason then you threaten me like that?! Oh please...

I am confident in my reads, if anyone thinks I am being inaccurate, please call me out on it.

AlphaJon wrote:

Oh, and last game, I didn't say anything because you were actually right. I was with Onjit and Luka504, remember?

This means you agree with me that I am not behaving any differently this game.

I was town last game, so how can you claim I am scum this time?

AlphaJon wrote:

@Kaslai: you're putting yourself in a bad position by following him.

Really?

Yet another attempt to scare someone to unvote you.

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#151 2016-04-09 14:48:08

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

#152 2016-04-09 15:03:53

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

#153 2016-04-09 15:28:08

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

#163 2016-04-10 12:53:55

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

#164 2016-04-10 13:51:57

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

Processor's wall of text:

#165 2016-04-10 16:03:12

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

#169 2016-04-11 12:08:01

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

Reply to Processor's reply v1:

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

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