🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛

Onjit · 2024-03-21 06:54:45

🕐🕑 Welcome to🕒🕓
🕔🕕 Mafia 56🕖🕗
🕘🕙(Clock Mafia)🕚🕛

It's time to get started!

Basic Rules:

Don't be a ****, it's just a game
Try to post at least 10 times per day phase
Don't talk about the game outside of where you're allowed to (ie. this thread)
Days will be about 70 hours long, and nights will be 24 hours long (We'll have the same cutoff time of 3pm AEST so its suitable for strategic purposes)
Ask me if you have any questions
Have fun (mandatory)

The setup is explained here: 09:12, but I'll do a proper write-up in a bit and add it to the thread.

The players are:

Pqwerty
Zumza - Killed Night 1: Vanilla Townie
Bobithan
Processor
Different55 - Lynched Day 2: Vanilla Town
Edilights
Buzzerbee - Lynched Day 1: Town Follower
N1KF
Schlog

N1KF · 2024-03-21 07:19:11

1. Wait, wrong forum game.

The poster below is confirmed townie.

N1KF · 2024-03-21 07:20:07

Looks like Onjit is confirmed townie.

N1KF · 2024-03-22 05:57:45

!vote Schlog

You framed Onjit after I confirmed his innocence!

If Mafia has daychat, is it better or worse to end day 1 early?

N1KF · 2024-03-22 07:40:44

Processor still needs to post.

also this has nothing to do with the game but I stumbled upon Snagsanga Mafia on the MafiaWiki and it's unsurprisingly by Onjit.

N1KF · 2024-03-23 00:37:10

Processor wrote:

Hi I forgot how this game works what is a "Vanilla Townie"?

!vote Processor

please post something more substantial.

N1KF · 2024-03-23 01:50:11

27 hours remain.

Scale o' Scumminess

based on pretty much nothing but current usefulness

Processor: Started with nothing but a bad question.
Edilights: Voted Schlog without explanation.
Different55: Only one post, which asked for clarification on the setup. Need more input.
Schlog: Brief comments. Suggested the ending day 1 after town discussion is done.
Buzzerbee: Prompted role discussion.
Zumza: Voted twice, and seems to be reasonably following stuff.
Bobithan: Did basic analysis.
Pqwerty: Seems experienced. Brought up the Babysitter Strategy that went over my head.
Onjit: Confirmed innocent. Seems fairly important to the game, giving us the rules and such.

N1KF · 2024-03-23 01:54:42

Well Bobithan just ninja'd me. How did you decide Processor is "green" and what do you mean?

I know he's #1 on my list, but it's based on pretty much nothing right now, so I'm willing to hear it out.

N1KF · 2024-03-24 00:15:20

Under 5 hours remain. I might vote BuzzerBee if we need to kill somebody.

I think I'll look more into how people are interacting with each other. Remember that Mafia has daychat so they very well could try to manipulate the day 1 discussion.

Votes

2 - BuzzerBee: Zumza, Pqwerty
1 - N1KF: BuzzerBee
1 - Processor: Bobithan, Zumza, N1KF
1 - Schlog: Edilights, N1KF
0 - Edilights: Zumza
0 - Zumza: Bobithan

Correct me if I messed something up.

N1KF · 2024-03-24 03:01:59

2 hours remain. And Bobithan basically ninja'd me on explaining why a day 1 execution may be preferred, as I had to do some digging to remind myself how it works.

I hope BuzzerBee returns so they can respond.

I guess I should get to work making a chart or something of the interactions between players.

N1KF · 2024-03-24 03:39:08

BuzzerBee wrote:

i thought more about their reasoning for babysitter claiming and it’s actually a smart move imo

BuzzerBee wrote:

i don’t agree that babysitter should claim, i was just pointing out that i thought Pqwerty was town because i don’t think it’s something mafia would’ve brought up

Emphasis added. Is this backpedalling?

N1KF · 2024-03-24 03:41:15

oh goofy me, Zumza pointed that out in post #54. I should have at least checked a few posts ahead.

N1KF · 2024-03-24 04:09:12

Under an hour remaining.

If Different55 or Processor don't post again day 1, it should be a high priority to get their feedback day 2.

Pqwerty wrote:

Again im just worried about a potential babysitter but that’s only like a 1/12 chance or something similar so yeah let’s just vote and hope there isn’t a babysitter to potentially ruin things.

All but one power role have a 3/12 chance, so triple that. Mafia Rolecop is on the clock twice, so it has a 6/12 chance.

N1KF · 2024-03-24 04:38:35

22 minutes remaining. My summary is done.

Search for Scum

#25 Bobithan says Schlog is probably town. Still holds this position on #60.

#30 Edilights votes Schlog without explanation. #34 Zumza votes Edilights for not explaining. #60 Bobithan has no idea on Edilights. #66 Schlog puts Edilights as #2 voting pick, describing them as volatile for not explaining votes.

#46 N1KF posts Scale o' Scumminess, with Proc on top and Pqwerty on bottom (based on "pretty much nothing").

#60 Bobithan posts town reads. Suggests Zumza, pqwerty, and Schlog are town. The rest are covered in other paragraphs.

#60 Bobithan points out Diff did nothing but ask the game setup. #66 Schlog describes him as "not necessarily suspicious, but more like a safe bet" to be voted on (vote pick #3).

#70 Pqwerty thinks Bobithan, Zumza, and N1KF are town.

Setup and Strategy

#11 Zumza backs off on setup discussion (see the babysitter section), want more opinions. #13 Bobithan says something similar and #17 BuzzerBee agrees. #51 Bobithan discourages it again.

#32 N1KF asks if day 1 should be ended early. #38 Schlog suggests ending early after discussion. #39 Bobithan analyzes and suggests longer days are better.

#48 Schlog discourages day 1 vote. #50 Bobithan counters. #52 Schlog counters. #62 Schlog talks about it more. #63 Pqwerty considers it. #64 Bobithan explains this, finds Pqwerty suspicious. #65 N1KF appears to be also be in defense of day 1 vote. #66 Schlog accepts Bobithan's math, and #69 Pqwerty does too.

#59 N1KF reminds people that Mafia has daychat.

BuzzerBee and the Babysitter (and pqwerty)

#10 Pqwerty proposes Babysitter Claim. #13 Bobithan discourages BC and role talk. #20 Pqwerty pushes for BC and role talk. #23 Zumza discouarages BC. #43 BuzzerBee leaning town for pqwerty, saying BC is a "smart move". #49 Zumza asks for clarity. #53 Refers to pwerty's post, but backpedals saying he "doesn't agree" with BC. #54 Zumza confused by that. #55 Pqwerty defends BuzzerBee. #69 Pqwerty still worried about babysitter, but admits chances are low.

#53 BuzzerBee votes N1KF for being "pretty neutral". #56 Pqwerty likes N1KF's reads; states they don't understand BuzzerBee's votes on N1KF. Suspects Processor/BuzzerBee team. #66 Schlog understands the sentiment on BuzzerBee, calling him sus and "technically neutral too".

#56 Pqwerty says Zumza "feels active enough to call town".

#57 Zumza ROASTS THE BC WITH FACTS AND LOGIC, stating a BC would benefit the Mafia a whole lot. Votes BuzzerBee. #58 Pqwerty STILL likes the BC, but in a twist, votes for BuzzerBee over the N1KF comment. #59 N1KF "might vote BuzzerBee" if needed. #60 Bobithan has BuzzerBee has top suspect, and votes him. #63 Pqwerty describes BuzzerBee as suspicious. Pqwerty and #65 N1KF still want to hear from Buzz.

Processing Processor's Post

#33 N1KF calls out Processor for lurking.

#36 Processor asks what a Vanilla Townie is. #40 Bobithan votes him for "softclaiming vt", and #41 Zumza votes as well trusting Bobithan.

#42 Schlog defends Processor, suggesting he's "just trolling". However, in #66 Schlog changes Proc to #1 vote pick. Schlog suggests from his "history of mindgaming" that Proc's VT claim may be a bluff; calls him out for not significantly posting.

#44 N1KF votes for Processor, wanting him to "post something more substantial". #45 Bobithan votes Zumza; states if Proc is green then at least one of Zumza or N1KF is Mafia. #47 N1KF asks to clarify. #50 Bobithan still leans to Proc as Mafia, but decides the bandwagon is sus like everything else. In #60 Bobithan still holds his position.

#72 Pqwerty now worried about Mafia Rolecop, says it "makes Processor look worse that they claimed VT"

Schlog

N1KF · 2024-03-24 04:50:18

Yeah I was planning on that. I don't know how much we can get out of the next ten minutes.

N1KF · 2024-03-24 04:59:50

It's time to swat a Bee.

!vote BuzzerBee

N1KF · 2024-03-25 08:57:49

With 7 players, 4 votes are needed for a majority, I'm guessing. Mafia can have 2/4 those votes. If you want to be extra safe, don't cast a second vote on a player yet.

Since BuzzerBee was a Town Follower, we have 7/12 of the clock deconfirmed. Here's an new clock, with the fractions showing how likely they're present.

The possible remaining power roles:

2-3-4: Town Tracker, Mafia Rolecop
3-4-5: Mafia Rolecop, Town Jailkeeper
4-5-6: Town Jailkeeper, Mafia 1-Shot Juggernaut

If we have 2-3-4, Town's last power role would be Tracker. So, if a Tracker tracks another player doing something at night, that player is guaranteed scum.

I don't have much more time now, but I hope to do the Scale o' Scumminess after reviewing the Day 1 posts again.

N1KF · 2024-03-26 21:00:09

Processor listed me and Schlog as scum suspects and wrote a whole post about Bobithan before saying a peep about either of us. He also asked Bobithan for a pqwerty scum read before explaining those other scum reads himself.

I am curious about Processor's and Bobithan's sudden Day 2 pushes on Bobithan and Pqwerty respectively. Might be the sign of Town Tracker (1/3) or Mafia Rolecop (2/3) results at night. Or maybe I'm just being paranoid here.

Processor wrote:

N1KF wrote:
I guess I should get to work making a chart or something of the interactions between players.
Great idea!
Please find attached an overview of all interactions so far
Let me know if I missed anything

The keyword is "should"...instead I made a rather wordy summary in #74. I think my chart would be a bit redundant with yours.

I need to go right now so I'll probably focus on scum review later. There are probably better leads to look into, then I'll make my Scale o' Scumminess.

N1KF · 2024-03-27 00:25:58

On further thought, I'm siding more with Bobithan. Processor looks more suspicious to me, framing him negatively while also not elaborating on the N1KF or Schlog suspicions.

Bobithan wrote:

I don't like that he's so hung up about a babysitter when there's only a 25% chance a babysitter is in the game given starting information. Now that we know there's a tracker in this setup, maybe our mafia team has a juggernaut which makes a babysitter a lot more likely from a red POV.

This is the strongest piece of evidence I've seen so far IMO. Pqwerty knowing there's a Mafia 1-Shot Juggernaut more than doubles the Babysitter chances to 2/3.

Pqwerty's post is also 8 hours after the game started, enough for the Mafia to strategize. Here's Pqwerty's first post:

Pqwerty wrote:

Hi everyone. I think just for general strategy here we should only have the babysitter claim and then have babysitter protect their scumreads because (1) if the babysitter is right about their scumread and the mafia shoots them, then both the babysitter and the mafia die OR (2) the mafia don’t kill the babysitter and we have an uncc’d hard-to-kill PR and we can just vote among everyone else. But also it’s the most anti-town role in the sense that it could kill a town (and potentially a town PR that can RB) in a double-kill.
Historically you guys haven’t been on board with hypo’ing cop investigations but I think that would also be a safe way to get investigations out if there is a cop.
Any other setup should just not claim. Also this gives us more info because we can either eliminate or include setups with the babysitter depending on if there’s a claim, and I think knowing the exact setup we’re in is going to be helpful. Of course, we should also be doing the normal scum hunting but I think this strat is informative

If a Babysitter followed this strategy (targeting a scum suspect), Night 1 is the most likely they would mess up and target an innocent person based on the limited info. It also has the highest chance that a Town Jailkeeper (2/3 from Juggernaut) or Town Roleblocker (1/3 from Juggernaut) will not who to target as the killer. So this strategy does have an "anti-town" effect as Pqwerty puts it.

Zumza, a confirmed townie, was the most vocal opponent of the Babysitter Claim.

I want to hear from Different55.

N1KF · 2024-03-27 00:55:56

Bobithan wrote:

if proc is green theres at least one maf between zumza and n1kf i think

This is a bit late, but I'd like to know Bobithan's reasoning behind this. How did you conclude we are Mafia?

I don't consider these really serious accusations considering it was Day 1 and you changed your mind, but it would be nice to have this explained.

Scale o' Scumminess

Different55: Still only one post. Lurker goes on top by default.
Pqwerty: Pushed a Day 1 Babysitter claim, opposed by Zumza (confirmed town). Possibly endangers Town, and focus on Babysitter hints towards Mafia 1-Shot Juggernaut.
Processor: Starts off opposing Bobithan, describing him as "sneaky" as well as me and Schlog without elaboration.
Edilights: A chaotic soul who votes without explaining. Not much to go on.
Bobithan: Has the most pro-Town leads of all players. Strangest move was opposing me and Zumza for one post and not elaborating.
Schlog: Seems fairly neutral. Gave two suggestions, but retracted them after Bobithan pointed out the flaws. Ironically comes across as slightly more Town than Bobithan to me.
Onjit: Still innocent.

N1KF · 2024-03-27 01:10:20

Thanks for giving a faintest idea; that's a better lead than absolutely nothing. Analyzing the votes could be effective, but it rules out anybody who lurked too much on Day 1 to vote (you and Different55).

Your list also excludes Pqwerty whom you've described as town-leading. I'm interested in seeing the reasoning for that.

N1KF · 2024-03-27 07:50:38

23 hours remain.

!vote Different55

I feel I ought to respond to Pqwerty since I was rather critical.

Pqwerty wrote:

I don't get this either. If Zumza says that I'm mafia then isn't this kill too obvious? Like of course all the heat is going to go on the guy who was scumread by the guy who died. For example, if N1KF died last night all the heat would be on processor since processor was their top sr D1. Why would I draw so much attention to myself when I could kill off N1KF and go for Processor the next day?

Zumza hinted at a possible PR, which is a good reason for Mafia to target them.

Zumza wrote:

In the very unlikely scenario where Buzz gets lynched and flips Town, I think the best course of action would be to PR on Pqwerty (maybe I, maybe you who is reading this ).

Pqwerty wrote:

I have been focused on a babysitter because it's an anti-town role that could potentially make the game end in two days

I decided to do the maths... For Mafia to reach half the player count (2/4 players) you would need to not only kill five Townies, but also not have a single Mafioso die.

There are three outcomes:

Babysitter voted out (no extra kill)
Mafioso dies (makes the game much, much harder for Mafia)
Babysitter killed at night (what you were worried about)

Game Start

3/12 chance there is a Babysitter.
Chance of continuing: 25% or (3/12) * 100

Day 1

6/9 chance non-Babysitter Townie is voted out. 3/9 chance of Mafia or Babysitter, ending this hypothetical.

Chance of continuing: 16.667% or (3/12) * (6/9) * 100
6 Town remain out of 8.

Night 1

Ignoring possible role blocks, 1/6 chance of Babysitter kill. 6/8 chance Babysitter targets Townie (IF they target anybody)
Add an additional 2/3 chance of Juggernaut coming with Babysitter.

First chance of killing Babysitter + Protectee: 3.472% or ((3/12) * (6/9) * ((1+(2/3))/6) * (6/8)) * 100
Chance of continuing: 16.667% or (3/12) * (6/9) * 100
4 Town remain out of 6.

See, we're already at the Mafia's first chance to kill, and there's already no more than 4% chance of a Babysitter and their victim being killed before the Mafia dies first.

Day 2

3/6 chance non-Babysitter Townie is voted out. 3/6 chance of Mafia or Babysitter, ending this hypothetical.
Chance of continuing: 8.333% or (3/12) * (6/9) * (3/6) * 100
4 Town remain.

Night 2

Ignoring possible role blocks, 1/4 chance of Babysitter kill. 4/6 chance Babysitter targets Townie (IF they target anybody)
Second chance of killing Babysitter + Protectee: 1.388% or ((3/12) * (6/9) * ((1+(2/3))/6) * (6/8)) * 100 (not including Night 1 chance or Juggernaut)

N1KF · 2024-03-27 08:08:17

Wait no, 21 hours remain. I spent like 2 hours with that post...

N1KF · 2024-03-27 21:49:41

Thinking about it some more, a Different55 kill would not give us much info. I put him at the top, mainly reasoning that he's not providing anything for the Town.

I underestimated how much activity there would be, so I thought voting on somebody would be more urgent than it was. I'm open to switching votes on somebody who would give us more clues.

Bobithan wrote:

Our path to a pqwerty elim today might be tough. I think the way that happens is with me+N1KF+proc+schlog since diff is AWOL and edilights is a being of pure chaos. Diff seems like a much easier elim right now as he's only 2 votes away from going, which might point to somebody red between edilights and N1KF and since I feel good about N1KF that probably means red edilights?? Certainly not impossible.

If I changed my vote to Pqwerty, they'd have as many votes as Diff has right now. I can back up a Pqwerty vote if needed.

N1KF · 2024-03-27 22:40:53

6 hours and 19 minutes remaining.

Votes:

Pqwerty (2): Bobithan (#85), Processor (#131)
Different55 (1): Edilights (#86), N1KF (#103)
Bobithan (1): Pqwerty (#107)
N1KF: Processor (#112)

pedit: lol ninja'd

Processor

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#1 2024-03-21 06:54:45, last edited by Onjit (2024-03-29 06:24:29)