Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Minimania · 2022-09-05 10:37:11

The intention I had with condorcet was to give us the fairest possible guideline to follow in case we were unsure of who to vote. Given how it works, it would ideally put the person we all agree to be the scummiest to the top. But I'm not pushing it to be the definitive lynch order. Especially knowing that reads can change upon new information being given. It only makes sense as a guideline.

Something that's been bothering me about your slot is your claim that I am 99% town. Earlier in Day 1 you told me that you were a bit of a nerd with statistics (lol) so when I saw you say that Im 99% town, it came across as a fabricated number. If you're now claiming that it's just a godread, then I'll loosen up a little on that front, but you're still giving me bad vibes. You've said definitively that I'm 99% town, but also that MM is absolutely Mafia, and that Buzzerbee is too. Though you've said Buzz isn't as sus to you anymore as MM is. I'm... not really sure where this development is coming from. Buzz hasn't provided anything new lately.

Norwee · 2022-09-05 10:39:52

[4] ElijahBaley: Marshmallow Marshall, Pqwerty, ShadowsEdge, Minimania
[1] Marshmallow Marshall: ElijahBaley
[1] BuzzerBee: Big Bon Jovi
[1] Big Bon Jovi: Nuclear Gandhi

[4] Not voting: Onjit, BuzzerBee, Grilyon2, 2b55b5g

6 majority votes to lock in the choice of elimination.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 10:41:01

1) I have things to say about Condorcet, but I think I could fill pages with why I think it doesn't work, so maybe I'll leave it for post-game

2) It is indeed a fabricated number, as in fact all numbers are. I'm almost supremely confident you are town, but I'm also simultaneously going 'what if I'm misreading?', which to be totally fair I would probably be asking myself over pretty much any read, so...
3) as for BB, I went back to one of the posts where he said that he "doesn't have much time" so he'll "try to give as much information as possible", and it is nowhere near as bad as I remembered it. it doesn't in fact even have the same or similar content as I imagined it did, so I probably just skimmed through it when I originally made the read on him... or I'm misremembering and someone else made the post in question, that is also possible.

Minimania · 2022-09-05 10:51:23

ElijahBaley wrote:

1) I have things to say about Condorcet, but I think I could fill pages with why I think it doesn't work, so maybe I'll leave it for post-game

Is there a tl;dr perchance?

ElijahBaley wrote:

3) as for BB, I went back to one of the posts where he said that he "doesn't have much time" so he'll "try to give as much information as possible", and it is nowhere near as bad as I remembered it. it doesn't in fact even have the same or similar content as I imagined it did, so I probably just skimmed through it when I originally made the read on him... or I'm misremembering and someone else made the post in question, that is also possible.

I'll have to go back and look at posts relevant to this. Maybe someone said what youve mentioned about Buzz and it stuck with you?

Pqwerty · 2022-09-05 14:25:10

So Elijah you wanted us to give reasons for voting you and I'm going to give my strongest reasons first and other reasons next.

1. I understand that it's hard to get reads, and I understand that you're struggling. The fact that you're so convinced that MM is mafia and Mini is town after saying you're struggling to make reads is unusual. This might be another case like Buzzerbee where you saw limited evidence and then got fully convinced, only to reevaluate later. Like maybe you just haven't reevaluated them yet. So either you're confident in your reads because you have inside information, or you're unjustifiably confident in potentially flimsy reads.
2. I don't want to take you to LYLO. If you're town, the condorcet indicates that you'll probably be the target of the chop on LYLO. If you're mafia and made it to LYLO, that means the town probably spent the last 2 days tunneling you and not reading anyone else. You're a hard slot to solve and I'd rather it be now than on LYLO.
3. You said so yourself at the end of #56 in your ISO that you pushed Mini and have him as 99% town. Why push a townread?

tldr; Upon further inspection, my vote on you is more of a policy lynch. If you can explain why MM is mafia I think I'd be more inclined to go that way, but you're my vote today until then. Actually I'm on you in spirit. I'm gonna unvote so that no one swoops in and hammers.

!unvote

Minimania, 2b55b5g

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 15:29:55

Pqwerty wrote:

So Elijah you wanted us to give reasons for voting you and I'm going to give my strongest reasons first and other reasons next.
1. I understand that it's hard to get reads, and I understand that you're struggling. The fact that you're so convinced that MM is mafia and Mini is town after saying you're struggling to make reads is unusual. This might be another case like Buzzerbee where you saw limited evidence and then got fully convinced, only to reevaluate later. Like maybe you just haven't reevaluated them yet. So either you're confident in your reads because you have inside information, or you're unjustifiably confident in potentially flimsy reads.
2. I don't want to take you to LYLO. If you're town, the condorcet indicates that you'll probably be the target of the chop on LYLO. If you're mafia and made it to LYLO, that means the town probably spent the last 2 days tunneling you and not reading anyone else. You're a hard slot to solve and I'd rather it be now than on LYLO.
3. You said so yourself at the end of #56 in your ISO that you pushed Mini and have him as 99% town. Why push a townread?
tldr; Upon further inspection, my vote on you is more of a policy lynch. If you can explain why MM is mafia I think I'd be more inclined to go that way, but you're my vote today until then. Actually I'm on you in spirit. I'm gonna unvote so that no one swoops in and hammers.
!unvote

1. I've known MM personally for years. I probably am the player who knows him the best. I am confident because of my meta with him. Specifically, MM almost always defends me from pushes coming from "everyone else" when he is town, but right now not only is he 1) pushing me, he is doing it on totally flimsy grounds 2). It is almost as if he wants me to be Mafia. That, or he wants to lynch me because I'm an easy target. In any event, he is probably Mafia. Am I 100% down to lynch him right now? Yes, as of right now, I am.

2. I'm not that hard to solve. If you look into my posts, I am legit BLEEDING my emotions/feelings/state of mind/whatever through. Like, most people explain their train of thought in words or what not, but I am giving you my thoughts more or less exactly as they come to me. Read them carefully and you'll see I am town.

3. I had him as scum initially because he was townreading the anti-town claim solely for making an anti-town claim, saying 'it's pro-town', but in fact if he is scum the claim is not pro-town at all. Anyway after I pushed him I realised he likely wasn't Mafia because I couldn't put myself into his place as a Mafia player. Like I thought he wanted to kill anti-town for being a serial killer, which sounds like something a Mafia would do, because Mafia

would

be hunting for the Serial Killer, but then he clarified Serial Killer generally (in his experience) cannot kill Mafia, rendering the point moot, and his reaction to being pushed by me - anger - was towny.

Minimania

Pqwerty · 2022-09-05 15:38:17

Ok so say MM is mafia. Any idea who their partners are?

Also, just to entertain the idea, if MM flipped town then who do you think the mafia would be?

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 15:49:17

Pqwerty wrote:

Ok so say MM is mafia. Any idea who their partners are?
Also, just to entertain the idea, if MM flipped town then who do you think the mafia would be?

1) Someone he has not interacted much with. ShadowsEdge is good on that front, I don't recall any interactions between them. MM is a paranoid scum so he wouldn't be talking to his partners in the thread. Possibly also Grilyon, I don't recall him ever drawing attention to that inactive in comparison to say me or Bon Jovi.

2) I have no idea

Pqwerty · 2022-09-05 15:53:57

Tbh I think we need to look more into 2B/ShadowsEdge/Gandhi/BB since they got townread pretty quickly D1 and haven't done a lot today.

2b55b5g

ShadowsEdge · 2022-09-05 15:54:14

To answer your question Elijah, the reason I don't entirely scumread you, I just think you're the scummiest player in the game right now.

Your posts seem more defensive (a quality I associate more with mafia players) rather than inquisitive. Thats why I said it could be a playstyle thing, but even then, the way you interact with people who begin scumreading you makes me think its more likely that you're a mafia upset that they're getting caught.

Also, your reads on Mini and MM specifically strike me the wrong way, since the line of reasoning you take for scumreading MM is faulty at best, for one, people can change their playstyle (I tend to do so between games even as town) so basing an entire read on the fact that they aren't defending you rather than the actual content of their posts looks like you just want a reason to push MM out of the game, especially since you've explicitly stated that you've known MM for years, giving the impression that MM could read you fairly well.

The content from Mini's posts isn't that great, yet you seem so set that they're town just because they had a reaction, mafia can have reactions too, but Mini's posts have had very little in terms of pushing the game forward, except for the town plan, but even then I don't consider those for town points.

Marshmallow Marshall · 2022-09-05 15:56:38

ElijahBaley wrote:

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
Also, I am not big into worldbuilding right now because there's little to work with, but if I had to give scummates to Elijah, it'd be among the inactives: it somewhat feels like he's distracting from their inactivity by calling Buzzerbee out for "being busy" (despite it being completely legitimate and despite Buzzer being honestly contributive). As for Pqwerty, I am debating whether or not he'd sheep Elijah THAT openly if he were scum with him. I think it's not impossible (especially knowing Elijah). And if you're going to say "b-but Pqwerty claimed anti-town town role!", that legit means nothing at all. Scum can do that, and may even have interest in doing so to 1) get towncred and 2) excuse their survival on the long run. Of course, it's not scummy in itself, but it's also not towny, and I feel like people are giving him a free pass for it.
when have you ever done that as Mafia. I have literally never done anything like you suggest, and I have never witnessed anyone else doing it (except in the mod)
I actually think Marshmallow Marshall is scum. Literally none of their reads make sense. Normally he's the one defending me from a lynch, now he's pushing for mine. I think Marshmallow is 100% Mafia.

You know what? PLOT TWIST

I do not think Elijah is scum anymore: he actually believes in his defense and thinks he's being pushed for bad reasons. This reasoning holds quite a lot of meta water, considering that is indeed what usually has happened; he believes I would not genuinely push him for being the way he is with his reads or lack thereof because... see next part

ElijahBaley wrote:

I think I know why I am being voted, and will briefly explain myself:
1. I believe people are voting me for not having "any reads". To some degree this is true, but this unfortunate situation is not due to lack of trying, believe me. It's just that nearly every post this game looks wholly NAI, they're "logical" posts which could come from any alignment. I am used to people being more emotional in games, getting angry over getting scum read, insanely toxic TvT fights wherein both of the two townies are trying to kill each other, etc. None of this happened this game except for when I pushed Minimania. I've legit skimmed (I haven't read in depth, I may do that at some later point), pretty much through every post in the game and nearly all of them have a scummish-null vibe to them.
2. I am very defensive. Yes, I am very defensive especially towards MM and Gandhi, because as stated above, they are calling my play **** and saying I don't have intent to scum hunt, which is patently false. I absolutely do have intent and even attempted to scum hunt, you just don't see me flooding the thread with nonsense over my MANY attempts.
Please reply to this post, it is imperative that if you vote me 1) and you are town 2) (but even if you are Mafia, then you can get outed and lynched) that you reply so I can convince you of my towniness.

He reads emotions and "intent" under a very specific meaning, because that is how he learnt the game, basically (we started playing more or less at the same time, and were around very flamboyant players, such as Distorted for those who may know him). On the contrary, he seems to think (in general, not just in this game) that behavior in itself is 99 % NAI because "both sides can do X". I did not really pay attention to this early on, considering there was nothing to make me think of it (everyone was pretty tame) and considering I thought he could RVS and you know, play more or less normally and hop on people for slight behavioral tells, considering he did in the past iirc? But with Minimania being the only one giving a reaction that really had emotion "pierce through the posts", so to speak, he immediatly got a solid read on him (right or wrong, it's still a read with reasons that somewhat make sense, and it's definetly the kind of reasons Elijah would believe in as town).

No no, just that you didn't intend to scum hunt we never called your play ****; besides, understand that without the new perspective given by your read on Minimania (see above paragraph), it's hard to see the intent to scumhunt when you 1) don't give scumreads that don't just look like pure OMGUS (which, for people such as @shadowsedge, is this) and 2) don't really question people, i.e. don't even appear to be trying to get reads. It took me the specific intent to reevaulate the case on you by including your recent replies in the equation to come to this conclusion; thus, I really don't think either myself or Gandhi are to blame lol.

!Vote Onjit

It is time to get some juice out of here. Funposting on D1 is fine, especially in the relaxed meta this site has, but we're far beyond that stage now. @onjit, we require your reads.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-09-05 15:56:54

I didn't even check that for errors

ShadowsEdge · 2022-09-05 15:58:10

Onjit should post, but I don't think they're mafia

Marshmallow Marshall · 2022-09-05 16:04:35

ShadowsEdge wrote:

To answer your question Elijah, the reason I don't entirely scumread you, I just think you're the scummiest player in the game right now.
Your posts seem more defensive (a quality I associate more with mafia players) rather than inquisitive. Thats why I said it could be a playstyle thing, but even then, the way you interact with people who begin scumreading you makes me think its more likely that you're a mafia upset that they're getting caught.
Also, your reads on Mini and MM specifically strike me the wrong way, since the line of reasoning you take for scumreading MM is faulty at best, for one, people can change their playstyle (I tend to do so between games even as town) so basing an entire read on the fact that they aren't defending you rather than the actual content of their posts looks like you just want a reason to push MM out of the game, especially since you've explicitly stated that you've known MM for years, giving the impression that MM could read you fairly well.
The content from Mini's posts isn't that great, yet you seem so set that they're town just because they had a reaction, mafia can have reactions too, but Mini's posts have had very little in terms of pushing the game forward, except for the town plan, but even then I don't consider those for town points.

I agree with you about the quality of such reads, but that is how he plays, and this kind of play can be surprisingly effective on the long run, especially in small, closely knit communities. That being said, it's immensely crippling when culture clash comes in imo, since "soul reads" often require meta to be really effective.

See my post above for more details. Also, don't lynch him. And perhaps vote Onjit, too? That would be neat

Marshmallow Marshall · 2022-09-05 16:07:01

ShadowsEdge wrote:

I didn't even check that for errors

Okay, tldr: Elijah is probably in fact town

ShadowsEdge wrote:

Onjit should post, but I don't think they're mafia

ooo, interesting take. What makes you townnread them (which I what I believe your post implies)? I know they have a trolly meta, but they also had some actual takes, iirc. Here, they're doing absolutely nothing that's remotely serious.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-09-05 16:07:20

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

ShadowsEdge wrote:
To answer your question Elijah, the reason I don't entirely scumread you, I just think you're the scummiest player in the game right now.
Your posts seem more defensive (a quality I associate more with mafia players) rather than inquisitive. Thats why I said it could be a playstyle thing, but even then, the way you interact with people who begin scumreading you makes me think its more likely that you're a mafia upset that they're getting caught.
Also, your reads on Mini and MM specifically strike me the wrong way, since the line of reasoning you take for scumreading MM is faulty at best, for one, people can change their playstyle (I tend to do so between games even as town) so basing an entire read on the fact that they aren't defending you rather than the actual content of their posts looks like you just want a reason to push MM out of the game, especially since you've explicitly stated that you've known MM for years, giving the impression that MM could read you fairly well.
The content from Mini's posts isn't that great, yet you seem so set that they're town just because they had a reaction, mafia can have reactions too, but Mini's posts have had very little in terms of pushing the game forward, except for the town plan, but even then I don't consider those for town points.
I agree with you about the quality of such reads, but that is how he plays, and this kind of play can be surprisingly effective on the long run, especially in small, closely knit communities. That being said, it's immensely crippling when culture clash comes in imo, since "soul reads" often require meta to be really effective.
See my post above for more details. Also, don't lynch him. And perhaps vote Onjit, too? That would be neat

Voting Onjit seems kind of pointless though, at best MAYBE Onjit is Mafia, but due to the reasons I mentioned in my reads post, I highly doubt that possibility. So more likely than not, it's just a policy lynch on a town, which lowers our numbers and gives us no information.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-09-05 16:08:58

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

ShadowsEdge wrote:
Onjit should post, but I don't think they're mafia
ooo, interesting take. What makes you townnread them (which I what I believe your post implies)? I know they have a trolly meta, but they also had some actual takes, iirc. Here, they're doing absolutely nothing that's remotely serious.

I mentioned before that it's mostly metagame-y, but Onjit tends to go inactive as Town, and active as Mafia, just because his activity is mostly based on his interest in the game. And if not solely for that, Onjit isn't a complete a-hole and wouldn't let his partner handle the game on their own. It could be a double-bluff but I don't think thats the case here.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-09-05 16:10:06

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

ShadowsEdge wrote:
I didn't even check that for errors
Okay, tldr: Elijah is probably in fact town

Also I meant to respond to this in the other post too, but when I made that post I was talking about my former post, not yours, your post was fine lmao

Marshmallow Marshall · 2022-09-05 16:14:19

Pqwerty wrote:

Tbh I think we need to look more into 2B/ShadowsEdge/Gandhi/BB since they got townread pretty quickly D1 and haven't done a lot today.

Agreed. I believe Gandhi is town, though: he put himself under a very bright spotlight at the beginning, and I trust him for it; plus, I have not seen any red flags, or even anything that could potentially look like malicious intent from him.

2B is not particularly towny and is flying under the radar. I would absolutely like to see more from her.

ShadowsEdge... hmm. He seems logical, but that's all; perhaps in the next few posts I will have a better grasp on him.

BuzzerBee is busy (what a fitting name). I do think his townread should eventually decay if he does nothing to maintain it, though.

Overall, I like this post. Besides, I went to check for the context of it after writing the above, and I like the reevaluation of Elijah and the fact you call it "basically a policy lynch", implying that wasn't conscious but that you just realized it; this makes sense and seems genuine in the circumstances, although I'm not sure what's going on in the heads of those who don't have meta to work with Elijah.

Pqwerty · 2022-09-05 16:15:07

Wait MM so are you thinking Shadow and Onjit are the big bads who have been plaguing this town?

Pqwerty · 2022-09-05 16:16:26

Onjit and 2b*

2b55b5g · 2022-09-05 16:16:58

2b55b5g wrote:

i'll unvote for now since i think Mini's idea of providing a hierarchy is a good idea, and i'll probably vote based on the results of that
i'll send mine later

i think i should explain why i havent sent mine yet cuz i've just been wooting posts. this game is hard as hell to solve (at least to me) and im honestly burnt out lol. i tried reading ISOs and i couldnt put energy into doing that.
im still reading the game tho and im trying to think harder

Marshmallow Marshall · 2022-09-05 16:21:38

ShadowsEdge wrote:

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
ShadowsEdge wrote:
To answer your question Elijah, the reason I don't entirely scumread you, I just think you're the scummiest player in the game right now.
Your posts seem more defensive (a quality I associate more with mafia players) rather than inquisitive. Thats why I said it could be a playstyle thing, but even then, the way you interact with people who begin scumreading you makes me think its more likely that you're a mafia upset that they're getting caught.
Also, your reads on Mini and MM specifically strike me the wrong way, since the line of reasoning you take for scumreading MM is faulty at best, for one, people can change their playstyle (I tend to do so between games even as town) so basing an entire read on the fact that they aren't defending you rather than the actual content of their posts looks like you just want a reason to push MM out of the game, especially since you've explicitly stated that you've known MM for years, giving the impression that MM could read you fairly well.
The content from Mini's posts isn't that great, yet you seem so set that they're town just because they had a reaction, mafia can have reactions too, but Mini's posts have had very little in terms of pushing the game forward, except for the town plan, but even then I don't consider those for town points.
I agree with you about the quality of such reads, but that is how he plays, and this kind of play can be surprisingly effective on the long run, especially in small, closely knit communities. That being said, it's immensely crippling when culture clash comes in imo, since "soul reads" often require meta to be really effective.
See my post above for more details. Also, don't lynch him. And perhaps vote Onjit, too? That would be neat
Voting Onjit seems kind of pointless though, at best MAYBE Onjit is Mafia, but due to the reasons I mentioned in my reads post, I highly doubt that possibility. So more likely than not, it's just a policy lynch on a town, which lowers our numbers and gives us no information.

ShadowsEdge wrote:

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
ShadowsEdge wrote:
Onjit should post, but I don't think they're mafia
ooo, interesting take. What makes you townnread them (which I what I believe your post implies)? I know they have a trolly meta, but they also had some actual takes, iirc. Here, they're doing absolutely nothing that's remotely serious.
I mentioned before that it's mostly metagame-y, but Onjit tends to go inactive as Town, and active as Mafia, just because his activity is mostly based on his interest in the game. And if not solely for that, Onjit isn't a complete a-hole and wouldn't let his partner handle the game on their own. It could be a double-bluff but I don't think thats the case here.

Oh. So he only disrespects the game as Town? Makes sense... not the first time I see that, and it makes me think "but why even sign up, in this case?" lol. It checks out, though. That being said, I would still take this over a no-lynch because it's really a question mark that we ABSOLUTELY do not want to LYLO; and besides, I am not one to encourage that kind of non-play that goes against the spirit of the game. In this case, though, it's definetly better to look at someone else for the time being. The question is more like "who?".

ShadowsEdge wrote:

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
ShadowsEdge wrote:
I didn't even check that for errors
Okay, tldr: Elijah is probably in fact town
Also I meant to respond to this in the other post too, but when I made that post I was talking about my former post, not yours, your post was fine lmao

Oh ok XD
Do you think it's accurate, though?

Marshmallow Marshall · 2022-09-05 16:25:21

Pqwerty wrote:

Wait MM so are you thinking Shadow and Onjit are the big bads who have been plaguing this town?

Pqwerty wrote:

Onjit and 2b*

Woaaaah, what is this leap XD

Shadow: He's logical, he's nice. That's all I have to say for now. Not particularly suspicious.

Onjit: Apparently, that's how he normally plays as town? Speaking of that metaread, if Onjit is town, Shadows probably is as well, because there is no reason for scum!Shadow to refuse a lynch on town!Onjit.

2b: ? ? ? ? ? ? I do not know. I also am not sure why people townread her. I wouldn't go as far as saying she is the evil plaguing this town just yet, though; that seems a little far =P

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 16:25:31

!vote 2b255gb

by the way, can everyone agree to these:

a) we should all follow some kind of majority vote. for example, follow my vote
b) we must always be prepared to hammer, else we cannot get proper information out of someone.
c) get 2b255gb to L-1. if someone hammers, well, we'll have the info that they hammered.

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#426 2022-09-05 10:37:11

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#430 2022-09-05 14:25:10

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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would

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

!Vote Onjit

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

!vote 2b255gb

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