Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Minimania · 2022-09-05 03:46:37

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

- Townhunting does not prevent one from scumhunting. Those are complementary, not mutually exclusive approaches.

I'd already explained my thoughts on this in the post you quoted. I stated that I will still push someone if I'm reasonably confident that they are Mafia, but that my main gameplan was to townhunt so that I can nail down suspects by process of elimination. Nowehere in that post did I say it was a mutually exclusive thing.

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

- It is not opportunistic to ask you to provide the scumreads you were asked for by someone who got nightkilled. It is in fact the testimony of a sane mind lol.

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

Well, tomorrow is now, old man
I shall carry Lumi's flame forward to victory and ask you to indeed give your reads - especially your scum ones. I read your ISO, and it's basically just you defending against Elijah without even really reaching a conclusion on him, afaik, apart from just calling him OMGUSsy.

I think I misinterpreted this post the first time I read it. When I first read it, I read it as opportunistic because I was under the impression you were saying that these were reads that I promised I would make. Now that I've read the post again, I rescind my comments made that this post was opportunistic.

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

- What is that "pondering" you speak of about Pqwerty's posts? You claim to have a thought process, but we don't see it. Perhaps it is very valid, genuine and obviously towny, perhaps it is fake. Hence, I would like to learn more about this (and I haven't seen the answer in your ISO, so unless I'm blind, it has remained rather unexplained).

I don't necessarily feel comfortable explaining my thoughts on Pqwerty's role. I will provide my thoughts if he deems it okay to do so

Minimania · 2022-09-05 04:08:17

Pqwerty wrote:

Well if it leads to proving you are town, it should be worth it. If you don’t think it’s towncred then it’s not worth it imo

I don't really know that it'll be worth it. I'm reasonably confident in my guess but I feel it's such a good idea that it would hurt if the Mafia thought of it themselves.

Minimania · 2022-09-05 04:10:11

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

I know you said this. That's a statement of fact, though, not an explanation. Saying that Elijah "is hard pressing me", and that this "could be scum theater" does not explain why you think we are a scum team, it just states that you think we're a scum team in different words lol. You're acting like I'm ignoring deep words of wisdom that make all of your thoughts as clear as water, but there's really not much to work with. What specifically makes you think he's doing theater with me?

I will need to reformulate my thoughts on you. I suppose if I were remaking my list, I would place you above ShadowsEdge, which isn't that much of a drop on my list but my thoughts have changed. I think our discussion today was fruitful, so thank you

Minimania · 2022-09-05 04:11:56

Minimania wrote:

I really wish I could explain more about why I townread you, but here are some of the reasons. I'm under the impression that you're a negative utility role. Claiming it immediately is a very town thing to do provided it isn't a lie. But I thought about the scope of what this game is trying to achieve. It's supposed to be a simple game with very few power roles. I can only think of a small number of negative utility roles that would fit in such a simple game. But I think I understand what your role most likely is. I've been holding off on explaining this, and I don't want to just say my guess publicly, because I know you've got a reason for not saying it, and yeah, you're 100% right; the Mafia are better off clueless if you absolutely are that role.

Here is my read/thought process on Pqwerty.

Minimania · 2022-09-05 04:14:56

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

Also, I'm tired, so I'll go off now lol

Sweet dreams ^^

Minimania · 2022-09-05 04:58:51

I'm gonna vote on Elijah for now, and await further developments while I make my own.

Minimania · 2022-09-05 05:00:20

I forgot to actually vote

!vote ElijahBailey

Minimania · 2022-09-05 05:45:23

If I've got this right, then there should be 4 votes on Elijah at this moment

Minimania · 2022-09-05 10:37:11

The intention I had with condorcet was to give us the fairest possible guideline to follow in case we were unsure of who to vote. Given how it works, it would ideally put the person we all agree to be the scummiest to the top. But I'm not pushing it to be the definitive lynch order. Especially knowing that reads can change upon new information being given. It only makes sense as a guideline.

Something that's been bothering me about your slot is your claim that I am 99% town. Earlier in Day 1 you told me that you were a bit of a nerd with statistics (lol) so when I saw you say that Im 99% town, it came across as a fabricated number. If you're now claiming that it's just a godread, then I'll loosen up a little on that front, but you're still giving me bad vibes. You've said definitively that I'm 99% town, but also that MM is absolutely Mafia, and that Buzzerbee is too. Though you've said Buzz isn't as sus to you anymore as MM is. I'm... not really sure where this development is coming from. Buzz hasn't provided anything new lately.

Minimania · 2022-09-05 10:51:23

ElijahBaley wrote:

1) I have things to say about Condorcet, but I think I could fill pages with why I think it doesn't work, so maybe I'll leave it for post-game

Is there a tl;dr perchance?

ElijahBaley wrote:

3) as for BB, I went back to one of the posts where he said that he "doesn't have much time" so he'll "try to give as much information as possible", and it is nowhere near as bad as I remembered it. it doesn't in fact even have the same or similar content as I imagined it did, so I probably just skimmed through it when I originally made the read on him... or I'm misremembering and someone else made the post in question, that is also possible.

I'll have to go back and look at posts relevant to this. Maybe someone said what youve mentioned about Buzz and it stuck with you?

Minimania · 2022-09-06 01:05:15

Aight it's 5 pm but my sleep schedule is **** up, I just woke up

These are some cool developments, welcome to the forums Gikkle!

Immediate thoughts on Gikkle: made a claim to be masons with Big Bon Jovi. That's risky as **** to do early on if you're scum so I don't see that coming from there. Either they really are masons or perhaps Onjit was a cop and investigated Jovi, found he was innocent, and Gikkle took up the mantle. Either way, pretty townie so I'll trust him and Jovi

Minimania · 2022-09-06 01:05:56

ElijahBaley wrote:

On the Normal page I only found one anti-town role that was explicitly Normal, and that's Miller, and that's not a role one would generally hide - more pressingly, it's not a role that one would want to hide from Mafia

Why would you not hide being a Miller from the Mafia?

Minimania · 2022-09-06 01:13:40

ElijahBaley wrote:

Minimania wrote:
ElijahBaley wrote:
On the Normal page I only found one anti-town role that was explicitly Normal, and that's Miller, and that's not a role one would generally hide - more pressingly, it's not a role that one would want to hide from Mafia
Why would you not hide being a Miller from the Mafia?
If I was a Miller, I would claim that immediately so the cop knows if he checks me I will come up as Mafia. much better than claiming it after the fact

Yes but that's basic, why not hang back and claim negative utility instead in case there's a Mafia Cop? The Mafia Cop will believe a Miller to be the Traitor if found and thus they'll be kept pretty safe

Minimania · 2022-09-06 01:39:34

Gikkle wrote:

Minimania wrote:
Aight it's 5 pm but my sleep schedule is **** up, I just woke up
These are some cool developments, welcome to the forums Gikkle!
Immediate thoughts on Gikkle: made a claim to be masons with Big Bon Jovi. That's risky as **** to do early on if you're scum so I don't see that coming from there. Either they really are masons or perhaps Onjit was a cop and investigated Jovi, found he was innocent, and Gikkle took up the mantle. Either way, pretty townie so I'll trust him and Jovi
Not enthused about this justification for town reading me. You don't know my meta - what if I do risky scum gambits all the time?

It's a kneejerk reaction and my first thoughts. My mind can be changed but I think my reaction largely stems from the fact I was 100% not expecting Mason to be a role in this game

Minimania · 2022-09-06 01:48:08

Gikkle wrote:

Why? Well, let's just say I have my own means of protection

That being said, I'm not sure how I feel about this

Minimania · 2022-09-06 06:16:14

2b55b5g wrote:

there’s only 2 mafia? meaning 1 mafia and 1 traitor? or 2 mafia who know each other, meaning 2 mafia and 1 traitor?

this comes off as a townslip to me

BuzzerBee

Minimania · 2022-09-06 06:25:09

ShadowsEdge wrote:

I didn't want to claim because while most often the role could be pretty useless, it can help to clear some people of at least not being a part of the mafia team (such as MM). Though this doesn't clear them of being the Traitor as the Mafia can still visit the Traitor. My information is also why i've been more trusting of MM in D2 because I knew that they weren't part of a team despite everyone being convinced that they were.

That wouldn't necessarily clear MM, as there could potentially be some Mafia roles that are supportive in nature, like a Janitor or something. But I don't know how likely that would be in a supposedly simple game.

Minimania · 2022-09-06 06:34:28

Wait wtf nevermind I just realized how shifty this is, Shadow literally what

Minimania · 2022-09-06 06:48:00

Did you forget what you said my guy?

Minimania · 2022-09-06 10:54:11

I want to hear from Shadow his thought process on why he had an intuition on Day 1. I want to hear what he has to say about last night's results

Minimania · 2022-09-06 10:58:29

Elijah have you ever played with Gikkle before?

Minimania · 2022-09-07 17:28:57

This flip changes things, give me a few minutes because I've got a very confident case now

Minimania · 2022-09-07 18:00:59

ElijahBaley wrote:

it does not have to be present in more than that - I don't try to force reads like you guys do. if something feels scummy to me I call it out as scummy. I don't try to make up some weird complicated story as to why someone is scum, I only call someone scum (or town) if I'm sure they are. numbers don't mean anything.

So, this is one of Elijah's earlier posts. Elijah says here that he only calls someone scum if he is sure that they are. This is pretty important because of some of his later statements during Day 2.

ElijahBaley wrote:

by the way, I knew Lumi would flip town.
!vote BuzzerBee

ElijahBaley wrote:

anyway BuzzerBee is mafia I do not buy the "he is busy" story one bit just get him

Here, it looks like he is putting all of his eggs into the Buzzerbee basket. Did he investigate Buzzerbee and get a scum result? Well, let's take a look at a post of his that gives us more insight into his read here.

ElijahBaley wrote:

because he is sus
and who cares he is an inactive?

ElijahBaley wrote:

we NEED to random someone. frankly outside of you guys focusing on me and what I regard as basically no-u's are that mostly attacking my play for being different, there have not been any major pushes this game. might as well start with BuzzerBee because he keeps dropping reads, promising to come back and then leaving
are you gonna put your vote on him to get some info or are you just gonna continue and **** about how I'm not "acting townie" or how everyone else isn't doing ****?

These two posts paint what sort of looks like a pretty clear picture. Buzzerbee must have gotten a scum result. But I'll get back to this later.

ElijahBaley wrote:

MM IS MAFIA, HE IS NOT BEING USEFUL THIS GAME. THAT IS HIS SCUM META 100%. GET BUZZER BEE AND THEN MARSHMALLOW MARSHALL.
MM and BuzzerBee = team

In this post, a few posts later in his ISO, Elijah then claims that MM is Mafia. Pretty hard on it, too. There's no leadup to this claim, he just says it in all caps. So, perhaps he got a scum result on Buzzerbee and is presuming MM to be his teammate.

I'll get into why this doesn't make a lot of sense in a little bit.

ElijahBaley wrote:

he's not inactive, every time he leaves he says "I will be back", which is scummy. why is that scummy? I do not know, but I know that as scum I've done that before + I've seen scum doing that before. being inactive or not has no bearing tbh

This is the last vote Elijah makes before making his first vote on Day 2. This is pretty clearly about Buzzerbee.

ElijahBaley wrote:

!vote Marshmallow Marshall
If more people vote for Marshmallow Marshall, I'll unvote so I can keep hammer power.

His vote is placed on Marshmallow Marshall instead of Buzzerbee. This is kind of a weird move to make, considering up to this point he had been implying that Buzzerbee is someone he got a scum result for. It would've been better if he had kept pushing for Buzzerbee, because he would have absolutely no reason to trust him. This is all assuming Buzz showed up negative, and that Elijah checked him. Why settle for MM if you can't be as sure of his innocence?

ElijahBaley wrote:

I am also down to vote 2b. but please vote someone for God's sake. we can't just keep making up reads, we need to make real pushes.

This post makes it look like he's not confident in either of his pushes, which makes me question the validity of either push. But I'll get into that in a bit.

ElijahBaley wrote:

I am not frustrated for being pushed, I am frustrated because MM and Gandhi are effectively calling my play **** and saying I'm scum because of it. This game is actually hard... btw, none of your reads strike me as you being particularly confident in. Why not sheep me and vote BuzzerBee and MM, since I have a much stronger scum lean on these two than anyone else does on me?

After condorcet starts picking up steam, Elijah's wagon starts to pick up some amount of steam. Here, he is talking to ShadowsEdge, saying that none of his reads strike Elijah as being confident reads. Considering Shadow ended up being the Traitor, seems like he was onto something.

ElijahBaley wrote:

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:
Also, I am not big into worldbuilding right now because there's little to work with, but if I had to give scummates to Elijah, it'd be among the inactives: it somewhat feels like he's distracting from their inactivity by calling Buzzerbee out for "being busy" (despite it being completely legitimate and despite Buzzer being honestly contributive). As for Pqwerty, I am debating whether or not he'd sheep Elijah THAT openly if he were scum with him. I think it's not impossible (especially knowing Elijah). And if you're going to say "b-but Pqwerty claimed anti-town town role!", that legit means nothing at all. Scum can do that, and may even have interest in doing so to 1) get towncred and 2) excuse their survival on the long run. Of course, it's not scummy in itself, but it's also not towny, and I feel like people are giving him a free pass for it.
when have you ever done that as Mafia. I have literally never done anything like you suggest, and I have never witnessed anyone else doing it (except in the mod)
I actually think Marshmallow Marshall is scum. Literally none of their reads make sense. Normally he's the one defending me from a lynch, now he's pushing for mine. I think Marshmallow is 100% Mafia.

Every post afterwards lays off of Buzzerbee, and he starts digging hard into MM and eventually ShadowsEdge.

ElijahBaley wrote:

also, I won't even belabour how anti-town it is to focus on one guy pretty much all game. I am town, what are you guys doing to do when I get lynched? as it stands, town is royally f u c k e d when I'm dead, because nobody here is genuinely scummy, with the possible exception of Marshmallow Marshall (I am no longer as certain of BuzzerBee being scum as I once was, I reread one of the posts that pinged me and it doesn't look as bad as I thought). I actually wonder if one of the people driving my train isn't specifically trying to get me lynched because 1) they are Mafia and 2) they don't want people to get CFD'd.

He says he's no longer certain of BuzzerBee. I'll get back to this later.

ElijahBaley wrote:

1. I've known MM personally for years. I probably am the player who knows him the best. I am confident because of my meta with him. Specifically, MM almost always defends me from pushes coming from "everyone else" when he is town, but right now not only is he 1) pushing me, he is doing it on totally flimsy grounds 2). It is almost as if he wants me to be Mafia. That, or he wants to lynch me because I'm an easy target. In any event, he is probably Mafia. Am I 100% down to lynch him right now? Yes, as of right now, I am.

Very confident about MM here.

ElijahBaley wrote:

Ok so say MM is mafia. Any idea who their partners are?
Also, just to entertain the idea, if MM flipped town then who do you think the mafia would be?
1) Someone he has not interacted much with. ShadowsEdge is good on that front, I don't recall any interactions between them. MM is a paranoid scum so he wouldn't be talking to his partners in the thread. Possibly also Grilyon, I don't recall him ever drawing attention to that inactive in comparison to say me or Bon Jovi.
2) I have no idea

When asked who he things MM's partners are, he mentions Shadow, Grilyon, and Jovi. He doesn't seem particularly confident, but it's clear from his progression that at this point he's considering Shadow. Also he didn't mention Buzzerbee in this post at all.

ElijahBaley wrote:

I don't buy Shadow's role now. It would appear Shadows made a legit scum slip.

From one of his posts, he's starting to scumread Shadow for what we now know to be an actual scum slip.

ElijahBaley wrote:

Minimania wrote:
ElijahBaley wrote:
Minimania wrote:
ElijahBaley wrote:
On the Normal page I only found one anti-town role that was explicitly Normal, and that's Miller, and that's not a role one would generally hide - more pressingly, it's not a role that one would want to hide from Mafia
Why would you not hide being a Miller from the Mafia?
If I was a Miller, I would claim that immediately so the cop knows if he checks me I will come up as Mafia. much better than claiming it after the fact
Yes but that's basic, why not hang back and claim negative utility instead in case there's a Mafia Cop? The Mafia Cop will believe a Miller to be the Traitor if found and thus they'll be kept pretty safe
Fair enough

As an aside, Miller was my actual guess so let's goooooo

So anyway, yeah. Right now it sort of looks like I've got a green check for being town, and that looks the most likely to me, but I've got a theory about something, and it's all because of Shadow's claim and his flip.

ShadowsEdge wrote:

I didn't learn that there was 2 mafia at the start of the game, so I couldn't have said D1 that there were 2 mafia.
I'll just openly state my role. My role is Informer, I can check one person to see if they were visited by the mafia for that night, I went on MM, who was visited by Mafia, given that Lumi was also definitely visited (due to it being the only kill and the fact that Mafia would not want to miss a kill in a game like this), that means that there are 2 mafia. As mentioned previously, Norwee did say there were up to a maximum of 3 mafia (including the traitor), hence, the issue was trying to find if there were 1 or 2 mafia (discluding the traitor).
Also important to note that I dont see these for the Traitor (explicitly stated in my rolecard).
I didn't want to claim because while most often the role could be pretty useless, it can help to clear some people of at least not being a part of the mafia team (such as MM). Though this doesn't clear them of being the Traitor as the Mafia can still visit the Traitor. My information is also why i've been more trusting of MM in D2 because I knew that they weren't part of a team despite everyone being convinced that they were.

Knowing that ShadowsEdge flipped as a Traitor Watcher, I think it's kind of important that we pay attention to what information Shadow is comfortable with pushing here. Obviously he wasn't a Town Informer, but it's likely he felt comfortable claiming it because he had a role that could pretty much do the same thing, and he could lie about the details as he wants. He says that he checked MM and found that someone had visited him. It could've been any player in the game, and yet I get the feeling that it might've been Elijah.

The biggest problem with my theory is that, when pushing Buzzer and MM, Elijah decided to push Buzzerbee's slot first. Why go on and tell people to vote Buzz first, and then MM if it was a more certain thing for MM to be Mafia? It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

However, Elijah never relented on his scumread of MM, not even once. So I admit, I'm really suspicious of MM right now. I realize that it's probably pretty risky trying to read too far into Shadow's post, but it sounds plausible that someone visited MM Night 1, and I think it might help disambiguate who Elijah checked if someone that visited MM Night 1 could step forward.

Minimania · 2022-09-07 18:02:06

Gikkle wrote:

Why not claim Miller? Investigative is already something mafia would probably reason exists, and not claiming Miller means the cop could have checked you and wasted an action.

I mentioned this before when talking with Elijah, but basically my running theory is that Mafia also has some sort of cop, and thus is they checked Pqwerty, they'd get the red check and would mistakenly believe him to be the traitor, which is hugely beneficial for town, thus a good reason for hiding it.

Minimania · 2022-09-07 18:12:39

so tl;dr on my huge **** post

Elijah probably checked me but I hypothesize that he checked MM instead. Shadow flipped Traitor Watcher. His posts yesterday implicate Marshall, but more importantly, he claims that he watched Marshall and saw someone visit him. My theory is that Elijah is the visitor, found red, and this led to him never relenting on his scumread of MM yesterday.

Problem with this theory: he pushed Buzzerbee harder than MM at the start of the day, so he doesn't look that confident on it.

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#51 2022-09-05 03:46:37

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#52 2022-09-05 04:08:17

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#53 2022-09-05 04:10:11

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#54 2022-09-05 04:11:56

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#56 2022-09-05 04:58:51

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#57 2022-09-05 05:00:20

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

!vote ElijahBailey

#58 2022-09-05 05:45:23

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#59 2022-09-05 10:37:11

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#60 2022-09-05 10:51:23

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#61 2022-09-06 01:05:15

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#62 2022-09-06 01:05:56

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#63 2022-09-06 01:13:40

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#64 2022-09-06 01:39:34

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#65 2022-09-06 01:48:08

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#66 2022-09-06 06:16:14

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#67 2022-09-06 06:25:09

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#68 2022-09-06 06:34:28

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#69 2022-09-06 06:48:00

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#70 2022-09-06 10:54:11

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#71 2022-09-06 10:58:29

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#72 2022-09-07 17:28:57

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#73 2022-09-07 18:00:59

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

!vote Marshmallow Marshall

#74 2022-09-07 18:02:06

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#75 2022-09-07 18:12:39

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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