Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

Minimania · 2022-09-02 12:51:56

ElijahBaley wrote:

I have no opinion on the switch you made from scumreading him for being a Serial Killer to townreading him,

and I dont townread him

Minimania · 2022-09-02 12:55:32

ElijahBaley wrote:

Minimania wrote:
But even if there was a potential SK this game, let me explain my line if thinking.
With a traitor, there's at least two Mafia in this game. Add in a hypothetical Serial Killer for this scenario.
The faction and the 3p represent two kills made every night.
Eliminating a Mafia member on day 1 does not reduce that number of kills made tonight.
Eliminating a lone serial killer on day 1 reduces that number of kills made each night down to 1 kill.
Therefore, aiming for a Serial Killer and hitting correctly produces a more desirable result for town.
I don't imagine I have to explain why that is

But there's no 3p role, so none of this matters
is that literally the reason you had, at the time, for pushing the serial killer, or is this just an explanation after the fact? (note that explanations after the fact can come from any alignment and I am not necessarily accusing you in this post, I simply want to know what was going through your head when you pushed the serial killer thing)

It's not something I was actively thinking about, no. I didn't sit there and ponder "hey! We need to kill SK first! I must hunt for SK above all else!"

I made a post that my gameplan was to search for people I think are innocent first and foremost. So why would I contradict that and say I am actively scumhunting a 3p?

But I saw Pqwerty's post, and I thought it was 3p suspicious. Like, of course I'm not going to not say something. I know 3p is generally a better target than Mafia, playing Town of Salem on a discord server has taught me that. It's been a while but Beep Boop should know what I'm on about here

Minimania · 2022-09-02 12:56:44

Actually that's kinda bad timing lmao I literally just left the server but Im p sure Boop is still there

Minimania · 2022-09-02 12:58:11

As much as I appreciate not being voted, I don't think Allen is it fam

also to get the big text just use the h tags

Minimania · 2022-09-02 14:03:37

2b55b5g wrote:

i was confused because i thought you meant that an anti town role cant be anything but mafia

The 2nd post you quoted was made after the 3p not existing thing was pointed out to me. I learned that there is no 3p, and so my next instinct was that he was Mafia baiting us. His explanation to me afterwards gave me the impression that he's claiming to be negative utility

2b55b5g

Minimania · 2022-09-02 15:35:07

I dont want to vote Allen here man, bruh

Minimania · 2022-09-02 15:35:42

If I have to in order for there to be a day 1 elim then sure but this is not who I wanted to go

Minimania · 2022-09-02 15:38:32

Oh what the **** there are nine minutes left. Why not round it to the nearest hour?

Listen man, Im gonna give it five minutes before I hammer. Anyone else have any last comments?

Minimania · 2022-09-02 15:39:53

Lumi wrote:

Minimania wrote:
If I have to in order for there to be a day 1 elim then sure but this is not who I wanted to go
Post your scumreads right now
Before voting Allen
Because you had 72 hours to push people and instead your iso is empty of any sort of pushes
So I call bs and this comment could be a wolfy attempt to not catch scumreads for hammering a town

If you read my iso, you will know my day 1 gameplan was to search for people I thought were innocent, not guilty

Minimania · 2022-09-02 15:43:20

We can talk about this tomorrow Lumi

!vote AllenCaspe9510

Minimania · 2022-09-04 00:47:11

Nobody understands what I'm going for here.

My gameplan isn't to look and search for people who are Mafia. It's to look and search for people who are innocent. I said this multiple times yesterday, and I seriously don't appreciate being misrepresented.

I never once said I was going to post a readslist at eod yesterday. Where did I ever say that?

However, I did post some reads. Those reads being on Allen, Grilyon, and Pqwerty.

Why am I looking for innocent people?

1. I find it personally easier, mostly, for me to derive a list of suspects through process of elimination. If I compile a huge list of people I think are safe, then eventually it will be whittled down to just a couple of people. Ideally, those people are Mafia.

2. I'm far more statistically likely to be correct in an assumption that someone is town that an assumption that someone is Mafia. So I'm a lot more confident in making those reads. I will still push someone I think is Mafia if I'm reasonably confident, though.

I have new reads.

a. Pqwerty is lock-town to me. After their new post today and pondering on their words yesterday, I have come around and I think I trust them completely.

b. I do not entirely trust that Marshall is town. I told Lumi that we would talk today about everything I said yesterday at EoD (which I did above in this post).

Here, MM takes up Lumi's mantle, so to speak, on his own authority and demands that I provide my list of reads, particularly my scumreads. It's clear to me that he either does not understand my gameplan or hasn't even read any of the multiple posts I made outlining it at best, or is misrepresenting what I've said at worst and is looking to push me entirely because of it. Opportunistic.

c. I don't entirely trust that Elijah is town either. Something about the way they interacted with me yesterday pings me as off. They have me as 99% lock town, which seems like a bs made up figure. He is also hard-pressing MM at this current moment. This could be scum theater.

Minimania · 2022-09-04 00:48:50

Ftr, the above does not necessarily mean I scumread either of you. But I am suspicious as **** right now.

Minimania · 2022-09-04 00:51:22

Pqwerty wrote:

But anyway, why is there a wagon on BB?

Also, this

Minimania · 2022-09-04 00:59:14

Pqwerty wrote:

So Mini, because you’re mostly looking for town, who do you think is town? More than just me, right?

My original townreads were Allen, Grilyon, a slight townread of Gandhi, and a null at best read on you.

Today, my townreads are Grilyon, you, and null at best reads on Marshall and Elijah. However, I'm not done looking into people. I'm still trying to figure out boop; I'm less familiar with boop's playstyle than I am Allen's. Gandhi still seems mostly okay, but my unfamiliarity with them is preventing me from giving them the townread.

All of these reads are malleable, though. If something changes, these might change.

Minimania · 2022-09-04 01:01:30

And if it matters, I had mixed feelings about Lumi before this morning. Their push on me felt motivated by scumhunting but that's all a moot point because they're confirmed town now

Minimania · 2022-09-04 03:35:16

I townread Allen because I'm familiar with how they play on Discord. We've spoken about their games a bit; I've noticed a trend when they're evil; they're a lot more shifty and a lot less willing to post their thoughts. In this game, Allen posted a huge list of reads that, while some didn't make sense, it didn't surprise me considering how busy with school he is and how little his investment into the game was. He was posting a stream of thought.

I townread Grilyon because I knew Grilyon had never done this before; I got the impression that he had no clue what was going on, and while the responses he got were funny, I still legitimately think he's just new to this. If he wanted help, he'd have probably got it from a partner if he was Mafia. Thus, I think he's town.

I really wish I could explain more about why I townread you, but here are some of the reasons. I'm under the impression that you're a negative utility role. Claiming it immediately is a very town thing to do provided it isn't a lie. But I thought about the scope of what this game is trying to achieve. It's supposed to be a simple game with very few power roles. I can only think of a small number of negative utility roles that would fit in such a simple game. But I think I understand what your role most likely is. I've been holding off on explaining this, and I don't want to just say my guess publicly, because I know you've got a reason for not saying it, and yeah, you're 100% right; the Mafia are better off clueless if you absolutely are that role.

Lumi was very aggressive with me yesterday at the end of day. It likely looked like I was going to try to pull some town cred for not wanting to vote Allen. I know it's a culture shock for the new people to come here and see that we've mostly skipped day 1 without a vote. It was a culture shock for me when I entered champs and saw that day 1 voting was important. I'm not sure the mathematics and probability behind it, but I've come to accept that a day 1 elim is better than no elim. That being said, me coming out and saying "I don't want to vote Allen, I TR Allen" and then turning around and saying I'll hammer makes it look really bad for me. Lumi saw this and rightfully called me out on that; that is a town motivated move and that's where I figured Lumi was good.

Minimania · 2022-09-05 01:32:22

I just had an idea. I don't remember exactly which Vsauce video it is but in one of them, he described an interesting phenomenon that could apply here, maybe. A study was conducted where a jar of jelly beans was shown to a large group of people, and that group of people was asked to levy a guess as to how many jelly beans was in the jar. So many guesses were made and nobody individually got the correct answer, but averaging people's guesses provided the correct answer. This study concluded that putting everyone's answers together made everyone "smarter" (I think that's how Vsauce put it)

I think, maybe if everyone provided a hierarchy of players from most suspicious to least suspicious, we could come up with a potentially reliable gamesolve. There's a... uh, I forgot what kind of voting system this is, but it's fairly democratic in that if the person you want elected isn't voted, your next highest vote could still have a chance. I forgot what it's called, LukeM showed it to us a few years ago in 3rd Party. I'll go digging for it brb

Minimania · 2022-09-05 01:37:45

ElijahBaley wrote:

Minimania wrote:
I just had an idea. I don't remember exactly which Vsauce video it is but in one of them, he described an interesting phenomenon that could apply here, maybe. A study was conducted where a jar of jelly beans was shown to a large group of people, and that group of people was asked to levy a guess as to how many jelly beans was in the jar. So many guesses were made and nobody individually got the correct answer, but averaging people's guesses provided the correct answer. This study concluded that putting everyone's answers together made everyone "smarter" (I think that's how Vsauce put it)
I think, maybe if everyone provided a hierarchy of players from most suspicious to least suspicious, we could come up with a potentially reliable gamesolve. There's a... uh, I forgot what kind of voting system this is, but it's fairly democratic in that if the person you want elected isn't voted, your next highest vote could still have a chance. I forgot what it's called, LukeM showed it to us a few years ago in 3rd Party. I'll go digging for it brb
Condorcet

I had to look him up but yeah I think that's the one. I don't think it'll necessarily produce 100% reliable results since we have a relatively small sample size, but maybe it could provide something useful for us; that being an order of people we could vote if we're unsure

Minimania · 2022-09-05 01:43:27

It was referred to as STV

Minimania · 2022-09-05 02:24:46

1. Marshmallow Marshall
2. ElijahBailey
3. Onjit
4. Big Bon Jovi
5. Buzzerbee
6. ShadowsEdge
7. Nuclear Gandhi
8. 2B55B5G TNG
9. Pqwerty
10. Grilyon2

Here is my contribution to the list. I cannot necessarily justify each placement over every other. For example, I don't necessarily think that Onjit is literally more suspicious than Big Bon Jovi when I have them in their spots for the same reason. However, these are just my honest first instinct placements.

Minimania · 2022-09-05 02:31:40

I've already explained most of my placements, but I'll explain the rest here:

Onjit strikes me as the kind of person who would pretend to not care about the game and to pretend to be an inactive so that the Mafia will leave him, only for him to go and hammer and save the town last m- actually maybe he and Jovi should be lower on my list. I guess place the both of them lower than Gandhi.

Buzz doesn't necessarily strike me as super suspicious. I don't like the way Elijah is treating this slot. However, I get the feeling that maybe there could be some meta knowledge there. There's some equity there if they do scum theater a lot, but I don't know them that well at all.

Edge is just... really meh? He's a null read for me and I am struggling to read him because he hasn't given us a lot at all. I wonder if there's scum motivation behind that or if he's just busy.

2B gives me the same vibes Gandhi does but with the added bonus of familiarity. Her posts to me have seemed like they come from a place of trying to solve the game. My only criticism is this; I'd like to see more progression. So, same with Gandhi, just a slight town lean.

Minimania · 2022-09-05 02:32:05

Oh well that answers my thoughts on Shadow lmao, dude sorrry about your phone man

Minimania · 2022-09-05 03:31:33

Pqwerty wrote:

Why is MM on the top of your list?

I prefer MM here for a couple of reasons.

a. In the off chance Elijah is bussing a teammate, it would be more likely he set up MM to go after Buzzerbee because if Buzz flipped town, it would make it look like maybe eliminating MM wouldnt be such a good idea after all.
b. Im a bit suspicious of MM already as it is, with how they misrepresented everything I said yesterday at EoD, and took it upon himself to speak on Lumi's behalf. Just does not seem town motivated, or it's just ignorance.

Minimania · 2022-09-05 03:34:12

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

I fail to comprehend how one could think I am teamed with Elijah - and that seems to be what you are implying here. Can you explain that bit?

My theory on it is here. Basically, I would not be surprised if it was scum theater and he was just spewing you right now.

Minimania · 2022-09-05 03:36:05

Hopefully I got that terminology right

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#26 2022-09-02 12:51:56

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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#35 2022-09-02 15:43:20

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

!vote AllenCaspe9510

#36 2022-09-04 00:47:11

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#37 2022-09-04 00:48:50

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