Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-16 23:57:43

N1KF wrote:

ShadowsEdge wrote:
Fair, but it seems unlikely that there's a Forecaster unless either: Mafia has no Goon, or there are 4 mafia. Which means that the public one is most likely a Gambler, and since their modifiers are different to yours, you would be claiming another Gambler.
Well, people did toss around the idea of Mafia having no Goons. We might have an Arsonist, explaining why we had a kill Night 2 but not Night 1. (Night 1 to Douse, and Night 2 to Ignite.)

I suppose it is possible, but I think the only case where Era could have gotten the wrong information on you is with a Voodoo, but I'm not entirely sure if that works since I believe in most settings the person getting 'controlled' gets told they were controlled. But it is the only possible situation where Era got the wrong results for you.

N1KF

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-18 05:31:19

As much as pestilence is a threat, pestilence cant rise until ALL players are infected, included deceased ones. That means we might not be in danger of pestilence rising right now. Furthermore, we have a decent lead of confirmed players: Me, Norwee, Onjit, Era (as stated before).

As of right now, leaving alive an immediate killing role (aka serial killer) is more of a threat than pestilence rising, as pestilence likely wont rise tonight, and if they do, we still have another night to figure things out. I think you know this, and that's why you keep grasping at any possible reason for another person to get lynched than you.

I don't disregard the sentiment that Allen isn't town-aligned, I agree wholeheartedly that Allen isn't town. The issue is that you took a statement to showcase allen's alignment as Mafia (which is a similar sentiment that I got, hence why I said earlier that Allen could be Mafia), and turned it into a campaign to suggest Allen is Pestilence without any evidence.

And I don't mean to downplay the threat that pestilence proposes, but also, Pestilence is easily bypassed by not visiting. By the time Pestilence rises, we should have enough information to determine who Pestilence is, and if we don't, we don't visit, and it prevents Pestilence from getting anymore than one kill.

2b55b5g

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-18 05:31:40

N1KF wrote:

AllenCaspe, what role are you? Are you disposable?

Though, I do agree with this, Allen what are you?

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-18 05:34:40

The last part is a pretty common strategy with dealing with Pestilence on ToS, but it only really works if town has the numbers for it. That's why its better to get out killing roles earlier.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-18 05:57:20

N1KF wrote:

ShadowsEdge wrote:
As of right now, leaving alive an immediate killing role (aka serial killer) is more of a threat than pestilence rising, as pestilence likely wont rise tonight, and if they do, we still have another night to figure things out. I think you know this, and that's why you keep grasping at any possible reason for another person to get lynched than you.
Or maybe the Serial Killer could just, you know, not attack anybody. If somebody gets nightkilled people will just assume it was me, so why bother taking the risk?

To be fair, I don't fully know why Era was convinced that you killed Zelda, that's why I was confused by their accusation at the beginning of the day, but if you aren't Serial Killer, then that implies there has to be at least 4 neutrals on top of the 3 supposed mafia (talking early game stuff). Since for you to be Town, one neutral would have to be Voodoo, but in order for Era to even get the SK results, an SK would have to already exist, and then there's pestilence and gladiator on top of that. While it is possible, it seems unlikely, and we can't confirm if there's a Voodoo unless we A. lynch you, or B. wait until N4 to see if there's more weird results indicating a voodoo.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-19 08:13:17

Oh good, you investigated Marten, my suspects for Plaguebearer were between Marten and Abiqi. I excluded Fabien just because from the way they played I didn't feel like they were neutral, but my read could be wrong on that. Allen can't be plaguebearer unless someone cc's reporting gambler, do note that Allen could be Forecaster, but even so, it seems that Mafia can't kill so leaving a Forecaster alive isn't that bad.

Assuming Marten didn't appear as Plaguebaeer, Abiqi and Fabien should both claim, I think I'll be more prone to lynching Abiqi today, but should things go another way, I'm fine with lynching Fabien as well.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-19 08:13:54

Also I dont know why i just realized that its Fabian and not Fabien, sorry.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-19 08:26:07

Alright, thanks. It'll be an easily confirmable role if we're wrong about Abiqi today.

Irrelevant should post results on Zelda when they can btw, I don't think Irrelevant is Plaguebearer right now, but it is a possibility if Abiqi isn't Plaguebearer.

If Abiqi isn't plaguebearer (which should be obvious by whether or not the game ends, due to the lack of kills, I'm fairly certain the only evil role left is Plaguebearer), then my suggested order of lynches will go as: twob, irrelevant.

If no one is revived by tomorrow morning, then we lynch Fabian. However, for the time being I'm fairly confident that it's Abiqi so i'll just be placing my vote on them for now.

!vote Abiqi

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-19 09:29:57

Norwee wrote:

Honestly, the plaguebearer role seems pretty weak. Apparently they have to somehow target all living and dead players in the game before they turn into an SK role. So this feels like an autowin for town. If there are no kills at night anymore can't we just eliminate and have Era check all of these remaining unconfirmed players for an autowin?

Infected players will also infect people they visit, and anyone who visits the Plaguebearer will automatically be infected. I think having dead players need to be infected is a huge nerf to Plaguebearer, as there are little roles that can target dead players (the only afaik being Retributionist and Criminologist), meaning for the most part the Plaguebearer has to consciously infect all the deceased players (if they weren't already).

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-19 09:31:27

Norwee wrote:

Inb4 he's mafia and is reviving Mutant and making scum a threat again.

Hey now, don't give him ideas.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-19 09:54:30

Norwee wrote:

List updated:
AllenCaspe9510
2B55B5G TNG
Abiqi
IrrelevantGaymer
ExFabian (Maybe confirmed town tommorow)

Some things to note:

> Allen claimed Gambler in #634. There is a Gambler/Forecaster confirmed as the results have been posted publicly, as Allen hasn't been cc'd, we can only assume Allen is either Gambler or Forecaster. I'm now inclined to believe Era's assumption that the three mafia didn't include a Goon due to a lack of a kill after lynching the Serial Killer, but if there is no goon, there's no harm in keeping a Forecaster who can't win alive.

> Twob asked to be investigated by Era in #510. It's possible this was a double bluff to get Era to not investigate her, which can be supported by her asking Marten to be investigated in #601. But Marten was inactive and hardly participated in conversation, so her asking for Marten to be investigated still feels somewhat towny to me.

> Irrelevant claimed #542. They claimed impulsive which means they had to have either checked Althea or Zelda last night, meaning they'll be able to give more information today on what they found.

Abiqi is the only one who hasn't claimed, and has been rather passive in their reads, the strongest stance they've taken is saying that lynching a possible Flagbearer is too ballsy of a move to do on D2 in #370. To me, most of their messages feel like they're trying to interact with the conversation without adding much to the conversation (I wont be giving URL links to this part since it's most of his ISO).

Given the information, and that Fabian's role will be easy to confirm the next day, I believe Abiqi is the best lynch today.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-19 09:55:49

Actually, should add, Twob and Marten both haven't claimed, but I explained why I believe Abiqi is a better lynch candidate than Twob, and Marten got investigated presumably as not Plaguebearer, meaning they aren't a good lynch candidate for finding Plaguebearer.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-19 10:23:34

Norwee wrote:

So i don't think you should waste an invest on Allen, Era. Do it for one of the other unconfirmed roles.
And when we think we've killed plaguebearer we just do Allen last. Because i think town has to kill all scum roles, even if they don't have an wincon anymore.

Do we even need to lynch the mafia to win? I assumed Flagbearer worked similarly to how VIP on Town of Salem works, where killing the VIP just neutralizes the entire faction (which allows Coven to win without needing to kill town even if they dont have a majority).

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-20 08:06:26

@Abiqi do you want to make a claim there's like, 24 hours left of the day, and if you don't claim you're definitely going to die.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-21 01:54:42

2B55B5G TNG wrote:

where is abiqi smh

Maybe it's a jester play? Even if it's jester, I'm fine with lynching it, because there's a possibility that its not jester and just abiqi trying to make it look like he's jester. If I'm haunted, go for twob or irrelevant next, era should investigate one of them to make the choice easier.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-21 08:15:02

we were the villains all along

also for a minute i was expecting twob to turn out to be jester due to her unwillingness to provide information about her role. fun game.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-21 08:32:42

Why did Abiqi infect Era twice?

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-21 08:34:59

Minimania wrote:

ShadowsEdge wrote:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/ … nknown.png
Why did Abiqi infect Era twice?
Abiqi was jailed, therefore roleblocked

Oh that makes much more sense, I thought Abiqi just really hated era.

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-21 08:53:46

N1KF wrote:

The serial killer is alive in all your hearts

How did she get there???

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-22 00:57:13

I have a game idea I could host if people want, I talked about it with Mini last night (it would make it more gimmick based, but the setup would probably be a mix of PRs and non-PRs).

If I host though, i won't start the game for at least a week, depending on how my schedule goes.

2b55b5g

ShadowsEdge · 2022-07-22 00:58:45

Norwee can host first if he wants though, one of the reasons i want to host later is just because I got something going on rn, and also there's something I have to attend in like, 3-4 weeks where I'll be gone for an entire week (i.e. not good for hosting)

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#51 2022-07-16 23:57:43

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#52 2022-07-18 05:31:19

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#53 2022-07-18 05:31:40

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#54 2022-07-18 05:34:40

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#55 2022-07-18 05:57:20

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#56 2022-07-19 08:13:17

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#57 2022-07-19 08:13:54

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#58 2022-07-19 08:26:07

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

!vote Abiqi

#59 2022-07-19 09:29:57

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#60 2022-07-19 09:31:27

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#61 2022-07-19 09:54:30

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#62 2022-07-19 09:55:49

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#63 2022-07-19 10:23:34

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#64 2022-07-20 08:06:26

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#65 2022-07-21 01:54:42

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#66 2022-07-21 08:15:02

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#67 2022-07-21 08:32:42

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#68 2022-07-21 08:34:59

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#69 2022-07-21 08:53:46

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#70 2022-07-22 00:57:13

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

#71 2022-07-22 00:58:45

Re: Mafia 51 - Secret Weapon [TOWN + GLADIATOR + SURVIVOR WIN!!!]

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