Official Everybody Edits Forums

Minimania

Moderation Team

From: PbzvatFbba 13

Joined: 2015-02-22

Posts: 6,388

Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

Welcome to Mafia 48 - Birthday Party! For those of you who don't know, today is my birthday (June 2), which is why I invited all of you here! We're having a party and a sleepover! I hope you all enjoy yourselves!

Here are the rules:

▼Game Rules

- One in-game day will last 72 hours. One in-game night will last 24 hours. Both may be ended early.
- Votes that are not made using the Bold or Header tags will not be counted. Self-votes are allowed.
- Do not game-throw, and no pushing and shoving in the bouncy castle!
- Follow the rules of the forums and please be nice. I didn't invite you all here to fight; I invited you all here to have fun!
- Red will be the color I will be using to make posts as the game moderator. Do not use this color or otherwise attempt to impersonate me. It's my birthday!
- Players may be prodded after 48 consecutive hours of inactivity by using the !prod <username> command. Players that are prodded for inactivity and don't become active within the next 48 hours will either be replaced or killed (if there are no replacements). Please don't fall asleep during the festivities!
- Do not discuss this game outside of this thread. What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas! Okay, it's my house but you get the point.
- A lynch will not occur when a majority has been reached. A lynch can only occur when the day ends. Players can vote to end the day early by using the !endday command. When a day ends, all lynch votes will be counted, and whatever was voted for the most will be executed. If you do not vote, your vote will not be counted as a NoLynch. Players can vote to not lynch anyone during the day by using the !nolynch command. I love democracy.
- These rules totally weren't plagiarized from Norwegianboy's Werewolf game and anyone who says they are will promptly be licked.
- Talking is allowed during twilight. Players nominated for lynch may talk until the moderator has announced their death. Once you are dead, you are not allowed to talk in the thread until the moderator has ended the game. However you are allowed a single short post if it is unrelated to the game.
- Users not participating are not allowed to post in the game topic. If I didn't invite you, then you're not invited.
- Do not take screenshots or quote anything from your role pm. Do not post your Role Card ID. I made them as party favors for you all!

Here are the roles:

▼Roles

Vanilla Townie - Vanilla Townies have no special abilities. By default, they are aligned with the Town.
Nurse - Once per night, Nurses may choose one player; that player will not be killed tonight if they are targetted for a night kill. Nurses can select themselves, but they cannot choose the same player two nights in a row. By default, they are aligned with the Town.
Cop - Once per night, Cops may choose one player; the cop will learn whether or not the selected player is considered Dangerous. By default, they are aligned with the Town.
Vigilante - Once per game, during the night, Vigilantes may choose one player; that player will die. By default, they are aligned with the Town, but are considered Dangerous until they use their ability.
Mafia Goon - Mafia Goons have no special abilities. Once per night, they can choose to perform a kill on behalf of the Mafia faction by choosing one player; that player will die. By default, they are aligned with the Mafia and are considered Dangerous.
Milk Man - Once per game, during the night, Milk Men may choose one player; that player's faction changes to the Mafia Faction, and they keep their abilities. It must be Night 2 or later for the Milk Man to use this effect. Once per night, they can choose to perform a kill on behalf of the Mafia faction by choosing one player; that player will die. Milk Men can only use one of these effects per night. By default, they are aligned with the Mafia and are considered Dangerous.
Serial Killer - Once per night, Serial Killers may choose one player; that player will die. Serial Killers cannot be killed during the night by any member of the Mafia, and cannot be converted into a Mafia member by the Milk Man, but they can be killed by the Vigilante. By default, they are aligned with themselves, and are considered Dangerous.
There will only be one of each role, except Vanilla Townie. Therefore, there is only one Nurse, one Cop, one Vigilante, one Mafia Goon, one Milk Man, one Serial Killer, and 7 Vanilla Townies. The town wins when all the Mafia die. The Mafia wins if it holds a majority.

Here are some rulings regarding the game if anyone is confused:

▼Rulings

• If a Vanilla Town is converted into a Mafia member, they are converted into a Mafia Goon.
• If a Cop is converted into a Mafia member, they are converted into a Mafia Cop. They may still use their nightly ability to detect whether a player is dangerous or not, but they cannot use any other effect during the night.
• If a Nurse is converted into a Mafia member, they are converted into a Mafia Nurse. They may still use their nightly ability to defend a player during the night, but they cannot use any other effect during the night.
• If a Vigilante is converted into a Mafia member, they are converted into a Mafia Vigilante. They may still use their once per game ability to kill a player, but they cannot use any other effect during the night. This use of the Vigilante's ability does not count as the Mafia Faction's nightly kill, but the Mafia Vigilante will still be considered dangerous after it has used this ability.
• If a Milk Man targets the Serial Killer with their ability to convert a player to a Mafia Member, the effect will fail, and the Milk Man will not be able to use this ability again.
• Any player who has been converted to a Mafia member will not flip their new faction after dying; they will still flip the role card given to them at the beginning of the game.
• Ending the day with !endday requires a majority vote by the players. Ending the day this way will result in the person with the highest number of votes being lynched.
• Tying votes will result in me flipping a coin to decide which action occurs, so I highly recommend you do not attempt to do this.

And finally, here are a list of commands that you can perform during the game:

▼Commands

!vote <username> - This command can be used to vote for someone you want to lynch.
!nolynch - This command can be used to vote to skip lynching any players for the day.
!prod <username> - This command can be used to prod a player who has not been active in the thread in the past 48 successive hours.
!endday - This command can be used to vote to end the day early.
!votecount - This command can be used to request a full count of votes from the game moderator.
!confirm - This command can be used to confirm that you are active within the game in response to the role PM or a prod.
You can only use these commands in this thread! I will not accept any of these commands if they are made in a PM!

Here's the player list!

1. TaskManager
2. Onjit
3. Buzzerbee - Vanilla Town
4. andymakeer - Nurse
5. Luka504 - Vanilla Town
6. ShadowsEdge - Mafia Goon
7. Pqwerty
8. gabriellfs
9. 2B55B5G TNG - Vanilla Town
10. Peace - Vanilla Town
11. AllenCaspe9510
12. Norwegianboy - Serial Killer
13. MrJawapa - Cop

Now have fun, or else I'll open your present last!

---

Click the image to see my graphics suggestions, or here to play EE: Project M!

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!confirm

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

Ok, so let's start off with some strategy and work our way from there.

Because the cop isn’t safe (due to milkman potentially converting it to mafia N2), we should all claim cop to confuse the mafia / potentially make them waste their convert on a VT. Then, we post our inspects so in the odd case that the cop dies, we will still have their inspects because they posted them along with everyone’s fake inspects. It wouldn’t be a good idea for everyone to not claim at all because if the cop dies later on and didn’t post their inspects, we won’t have any information to go off of.
Additionally, if the real cop gets someone as dangerous N1, we should all retract our fake claims so that the real cop gets confirmed. Then, if the scum claims vig (because vig shows up as dangerous if they haven’t shot), the real vig should cc. If the real vig was found, there will probably be no cc, and if there is, the outed real vig should just shoot the cc during the night. This will confirm the cop and vig, and lead to a guaranteed scum kill, as long as we don’t lynch between the vig claims.
Also, this works beyond D2, we just need to make sure the cop/vig isn’t found by the milkman.

So, without further ado, I claim cop.

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

people already said this but ill reiterate, this is quite pointless because how is everyone claiming cop any more beneficial to town than nobody claiming cop?

Ok so let me answer some questions because it does sound weird. This is a strategy that I've seen used in other games where the cop isn't fully protected (meaning that the optimal strategy of follow the cop isn't viable). It's usually done when the mafia has a roleblocker, but I think it works the same here.

Generally, when there's a mafia RB and only the real cop claims, they just get blocked by the mafia RB until they are eventually killed off. The RB basically makes the cop useless because it can't get an inspect. And if the cop doesn't claim, then there is the possibility that they get killed before releasing any of their inspects. Also, if they do go out and claim their inspects, then they just get blocked by the mafia RB for the rest of the game because mafia knows who they are now.

To combat this, players decided to use a strategy called Hypo.

Hypo: Hypo is a strategy that occurs in themes with a known inspector and a known scum roleblocker, for example 8 player Classic. What happens is that EVERYONE claims cop, so "hypo"thetically anyone can be cop, so the Mafia Pretty Lady doesn't know who to block, allowing the actual cop to (hopefully) safely get inspections.

Basically, everyone claims cop so that the mafia RB doesn't know who to block. Amidst the chaos of inspects, the real cop can post their inspects so that even if they die, the inspects will be known post-mortem.

In our situation, I feel like the milkman/nurse scenario is similar to the one with a mafia RB. This is because if the cop claims, they risk being converted/ killed because nurse can't double-protect. So, it's risky to claim. Also, if they don't claim, they could potentially die with their inspects. It's very possible that the cop dies before releasing their reads in this setup. There's 3 killing roles and a lynch during the day. There's a high chance that the cop is one of the people to die N1 or N2 because of all this firepower, and if the cop survives N1 with a town inspect and doesn't claim, and then dies N2, that's one town confirm we don't get.

This is a setup where the cop's reads are vital. With so much carnage during the nights, if someone gets townconfirmed amongst the already narrow player list (due to all the killing), that increases our odds of hitting a scum by a lot.

So, I say everyone claims cop and gives reads so that we can give our actual cop some cover.

tldr; this strategy allows the cop to more safely release their reads with less risk of being converted / night killed, and it does not have those benefits when everyone claims VT.

Does this address your concerns?

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

ok but i still dont see the point doing this day 1 because cop didnt have the time to visit anyone yet???

We don't need to post reads d1 because that's impossible, but I just wanted to get the strat going today so we can move on to the next thing.

Some things I want to explore more:

!vote luka

I have a feeling I know the answer, but why?

Is the feeling that he's RV'ing? If not, how do you know why he's voting? Why is he voting for Luka and then you, if it's not an RV?

i don’t really know what to say but i’m going to post so people can at least have an early post from me to get reads on ig

How are we supposed to get reads from a filler post?

hello i would like to confirm that my role is vanilla townie

hi mafia goon i will note vote u

Why do you think that Onjit is a goon, peace? And why did you say that you won't vote him if he's a goon?

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

We don't need to post reads d1 because that's impossible

Lel.

I meant cop inspects lol

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

ok but i still dont see the point doing this day 1 because cop didnt have the time to visit anyone yet???

I was responding to this

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

hey what if cop ends up not dying and we're in LyLo
wouldnt that be funny
"ok guys pqwerty's plan aside im the real cop"
"no its me im the cop!!"

I mean, if it gets to Lylo there should be enough information to go on by then to see who's lying and who's not. The cop claims would have inspects, scumreads, and pages of information to analyze. Also, there's so many killing roles that I don't think that the cop would be alive long enough for LyLo.

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

Im gonna agree with Norwegian here, I dont think the cop strategy is a very smart strategy.Obviously it would confirm their results after they die, but it also brings up a variety of problems: if the Cop finds a dangerous person, it'll automatically out them as cop, since they'll know who a dangerous person is. And the alternative to combat that would just create more chaos, and wouldn't a good plan for that, which the alternative is to have people put dangerous in their "reads" as you put it, which would only create more chaos in terms of 1, who the real cop is, and 2, what people should believe.

Shouldn't the real cop claim anyway if they find a dangerous person? Is the cop supposed to stay hidden and hope they find a second danger AND survive 2 nights in a row against 3 killing roles?

Furthermore, I think everyone claiming the exact same role will just cause a lot of confusion in terms of claims and counterclaims, in which the Mafia and Serial Killer can hide behind (As Norwegian pointed out previously) to push for mislynches, and even push for Cop kills or lynches.

Yeah but mafia and SK can hide behind VT claims just the same. Cop is just the new VT in this scenario, and there's more ways to scumhunt than just who claims what.

Now let me explain why I personally think that everyone claiming VT is a good idea:You want everyone to appear as cop to hide the cop's cover, but if the "cops" investigate a mafia, and they appear as not dangerous, it'll lower the pool for who the cop is. With the alternative that everyone claims VT, there's no way for the mafia to narrow down who the Cops are, other than simple actions hinting at being a PR.

I mean, that's why it's so important that everyone claims Cop. The more cops, the harder it is to narrow it down. Also, if you're worried about bad inspects, just say one of your tr's is town or something. Again, with so many killing roles, scum doesn't have much time to find the cop before it either dies and confirms some people or it survives long enough to where it's just better for everyone to unclaim and just accept the confirms (I really think the former is going to happen).

The only downside to everyone claiming PR is that the Cop cant reveal their investigations without putting themselves at risk. There's a risk to both of them, but I think that everyone claiming VT is a better solution, because it provides less drawbacks for us than would be with everyone claiming cop--For everyone claiming cop, I see two major downsides, being that it gives evils an easy cover and counterclaim if needed, and allows them to narrow down who the cop is by the "investigations" everyone puts out; In the VT situation, there's still a chance for Mafia to find out who the cops are, but it's not exact, and it doesnt allow the cop to claim as easily.

So, if we're looking at this from a pros and cons standpoint, you get guaranteed cop inspects from my strat, which I've said before is vital with all this carnage because the town pool will be small so every townconfirm is super helpful. The cons are: potentially outing the cop (which is okay because we still get the confirms even if the cop is dead, and the cop probably doesn't live long in this setup anyway), scum hiding behind cop claims (but that's the same as them hiding behind a VT claim).

I think the pros outweigh the cons here. Say there's 10 people alive tomorrow (3 die from D1 lynch and nk from sk and mafia), and then cop townconfirms someone D2, and then is one of the NK's night 2. There's 7 people left, one of them is townconfirmed and 4 of them are scum. That gives town a 4/6 chance of hitting scum D3. And that's if only towns die D1 and D2. And mafia wouldn't have the majority D3 because it would be 3 mafia out of 7 townies total. They can lynch a mafia and get a vig kill. Like even worst case scenario in my plan, the town has room for comebacks. That's how vital townconfirms are and you can't do that if cop's inspects are supressed.

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

What if a town confirm get’s recruited?

So, about 3 people get killed each day/night cycle, so we probably have about 4 days to solve the game.

If the mafia decides to convert the townconfirm, they have N2 and N3 to convert them. Townconfirms are universally bad for scum, so even if the mafia decide to keep the townconfirm, the SK would want it dead. Because the nurse can't double protect, the SK would probably end up killing it. And even if it did survive, wouldn't it be really weird for a townconfirm to survive 2 nights in a row when both scum teams benefit from it being dead? People would probably get suspicious and lynch it D4. I know I'd lynch it.

Basically, the townconfirm would get wrecked by the SK or the town in the late game, so it's not a great convert.

Are there any other questions?

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

Listen guys, we have like 4 days to do this and we can't afford to let the cop lay low and die.

Why is 9 fake inspects with 1 real one so chaotic? It's 10 posts.

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

Also, I get that fake reads give the mafia information, but the thing is I don't think it gives the mafia enough information in time, and also, as I've said before, as long as the cop doesn't die n1, then people are going to get confirmed regardless of the cop living or dying.

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

Actually, isn’t it better if we all claim VT and post our reads lol. It’s very easy for the cop to out themselves if we all claim it. The real cop can claim VT and try to push for dangerous people they investigated in their reads. If the cop ended up dying, we can rely on their reads.

I mean, let's look at how hard it is for the cop to out itself and let's say it survived N1.
There's 10 people left, 2 of them are mafia.
Someone gets lynched D2, now they have a 1/7 chance of hitting cop.
If someone screws up their read, they reduce the odds to 1/6 or 1/5.
But my question is:
Does going from a ~14% chance of randomly hitting cop to a 20% chance of hitting cop N2 really mean that cop outed itself? And if the mafia and SK are still alive, isn't the cop just lucky to be alive D3? Cuz like, there's only going to be like 6 or 7 people left alive D3.
I feel like it'd be better to get explicit inspect results than trying to dig them out of reads. But maybe that's just me.

I thought this plan was pretty standard because I found it on some mafia website and I didn't expect so much backlash. I honestly thought we'd be done with this by now.

Also, can Jawapa, Peace, and BuzzerBee please respond to my questions?

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

Reads so far (subject to change when new info comes out) :

Task (town lean)
Reasons: #71 seems like a genuine criticism to my plan. Like I agree, maybe we should’ve claimed cop D2 or something. Everything in #150-151 comes off as town to me, even though I disagree with Shadow. It also helps that Task gave their reads even without being prompted to do so. So they’re being proactive.  #42 also calls out Peace’s OMGUS. I’m just getting some good vibes from Task.

NorwegianBoy (slight town lean)
Reasons: Even though they disagree with me, the concerns in posts like #59, #74, #76, and #104 seem to be genuine concerns with my plan, and not just some bs that scum would come up with to stall or something. They’re also pretty active and their posts have substance to them (they aren’t a bunch of filler). My only concern is their tunneling on Luka. Norboy started with a rand lynch on Luka in #32 as part of a wagon, and then accused Luka of being LAMIST in #79 (which is justified but he’s not the only person who decided to follow my plan), and the most recent accusation feels like a big misunderstanding. I think that Luka is trying to say that we don’t have enough information yet for a permanent townblock, and Norboy is trying to create a temporary townblock that is subject to change if their reads change.  It’s also a bit weird that they say in #138 that they’d be willing to lynch someone else, and then continue the attack in #146 after Luka votes for them in #139. I’m going to keep an eye out on Norboy, but currently I still lean more that they’re an aggressive townie rather than scum.

MrJawapa (slight scum read)
Reasons: They’ve been really quiet, and as Onjit said, all of Jawapa’s posts so far have “seemed like he was posting from a place of having more information”. There still doesn’t seem to be enough information to have a harder read on them.

Buzzerbee (slight scum read)
Reasons: I don’t care that they voted for me (maybe they didn’t like my question for them), and I understand he doesn’t like the plan for hypo (#122). But his post #48 really rubs me the wrong way. Like, why would you put a filler post and ask to get read on it? And then in #122, he avoids the question by saying that the posts leading to the questions “weren’t even that deep”. If the posts that I asked the questions to weren’t that deep, why is Onjit justifying his lynch based on one of them? And if it isn’t that deep, why doesn’t he answer the question / why would he post something so not “deep” in the first place? And yes, I get it that I’m being pushy about this, but these come across as suspicious to me and I’d like to see where they go ASAP.

!lynch BuzzerBee

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

so do you guys think the Vigilante will use his ability N1?
also, if it does, who would it target?

btw, all of this discussion has reached no point at all

Even though they disagree with me

lol, you say that you townreads him based on "genuine concerns", then you post a bunch of motives to not trust him

Those are just examples of Norboy tunneling Luka. I would tr Norboy more if they didn't tunnel Luka, because otherwise they seem pretty town for now.
Also, I doubt that the Vig will use their shot N1. We don't have enough info yet to justify a kill and there's too many players to have good odds with a randshot.

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

Sorry, I can't keep an eye on this game 24/7. I have a life outside of here, so you'll have to be patient.

I assumed Onjit was joking about me having more information, mostly because it's Onjit, and his vote looked like a joke too: "1vote jawp"

So, I don't know what you're going on about.

I posted that before you gave an explanation. After your explanation, I'd say you're a null read rn.

I rather !endday then reading the threats here, theres not really much you can do in day 1. Day 2 is where things get more interesting

One of the reasons that I don't post before is because d1 seems pretty boring and dull with just people fighting each other , I would rather !endday like Allen said than seeing some dudes fighting because of mafia strategies

It's usually never a good idea to end the day early. NL can be fine in some cases, but ending the day early seems like a bad idea and here's why:
- we'll be doing the exact same thing tomorrow except with most likely 3 less people.
- the town's best source of information is what happens during the day, so it should be day as long as possible. It makes the days a marathon for the scum.
- If we aren't doing hypo, we probably aren't going to get any info from the cop because even if it gets a dangerous read, they don't want to accidentally out the vig.
- @ Allen the reason why you can't do much D1 is because there's a lot of players and not very many posts. However, if the day is long, then we'll get a lot more posts to go off of and from that, more accurate lynches.
- @ Gabriel we'll probably end up arguing over something else tomorrow, so it's better to just deal with it now instead of later.

There's no time like the present.

So, why would you guys suggest ending the day early? Why do you think it's going to be more interesting D2 / Does going from 13 to 10 people really change your interest in the game that much? This isn't just an excuse to not do anything D1, right?

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!lynch Andymakeer

I HAVE reads, I just don't want to say them.

As I said, I have no reads D1.

I HAVE reads, I just don't want to say them.

NorwegianboyEE wrote:
- Oh and when some really interesting **** happened earlier between me/Luka all you could muster was "This is smokescreen". And then didn't even explain in detail the reason you had behind making that post. Just some vague statements about "they could be scum or SK or something".

Because that would out my reads lol
Dont trap me, please.

I HAVE reads, I just don't want to say them.

I don’t get it. You hop from having reads to not having reads and then having reads but not wanting to say them. Why the heck would you not want to out your reads? That doesn’t seem town at all, and it’s not like there’s a magical cop that can investigate during the day.

I mean, have we reached a conclusion?

We basically have made a decision in terms of strategy. Hypo requires everyone on board for it to work, and not everyone’s on board. So we can’t do it. So cop’s probably just going to lay low or something.

I think you are nervous Norboy, this is not like you.
Avoiding questions, creatings conclusions from things that no one said, trying to be a good boy for someone that voted on you...

?
Have I said if I think you are town or scum?
Again, getting conclusions from things that players did not say.

I feel like you’re implicitly calling Norboy scum here. You’re saying he’s doing scummy behavior (i.e. “avoiding questions, creating conclusions from things that no one said, trying to be a good boy…”) and you’re not saying he’s doing anything townie. So, this means you’re implying he’s scum because you say he’s only acting scummy. I feel like you’re trying to antagonize someone and then make them look bad for defending themselves, and that doesn’t come across as town to me.
And as far as your argument that “nothing has happened today” goes, I think Task said it best.

We've made more progress than what is usually made on D1
We've discussed a cop massclaim and Norboy's townblock and based on that some people have made some basic reads on some people that were involved
Of course we won't solve the game in one day and if never works like that, but we're still making quite some progress

Also, in regards to this:

We are wagoning an inactive player for 'refusing to talk'

I don’t think people are really pushing that wagon. They’re doing it mainly to get them to talk more afaik.

2 dead town is better than 3 dead towns.

Yeah but you’re acting really scummy, up to the point where I think it’d be worth the risk of hitting scum D1 vs the odds of getting 3 dead town. Like your behavior seems pretty scummy, and NL would only be a good idea if we actually had nothing to go on.

While i agree with voting for pressure on principle, we really don’t have enough time for that anymore and that is why i think we should rather be voting Andymakeer right now.

I also agree with this. We can pressure Gabriel and Allen tomorrow, as we don’t have enough time left today.

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

EDIT: Sorry I quoted wrong at the beginning
Post #11 in his ISO says this

as for my substance, i'll not say my reads D1

His ISO post #13 says this

As I said, I have no reads D1.

His ISO post #24 says this

I HAVE reads, I just don't want to say them.

And his ISO post #25 says this

- Oh and when some really interesting **** happened earlier between me/Luka all you could muster was "This is smokescreen". And then didn't even explain in detail the reason you had behind making that post. Just some vague statements about "they could be scum or SK or something".

Because that would out my reads lol
Dont trap me, please.

I just wanted to say he’s flipping between having reads that he doesn’t want to share and not having reads, and I don’t get why he doesn’t want to share his reads.

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

Reads as of now (again, they are subject to change over time) :

NorwegianBoy (town lean)
Reasons:
-    What I’ve said already in #158
-    Their lynch on Andy was justified and doesn’t feel like an opportunistic push
-    They’re the most active poster in this game
-    They have a town attitude (#239 says it’s better to lynch scum than to lynch lurkers, and if one says “oh, post #269 makes it look like Norboy wants to lynch the lurker”, he’s not because #277 shows that he was just saying a Gabe lynch is better than a NL), they’re asking people good questions (#104, #297, #199, #323, etc.) and they’re making good points (#154, #203, #216, #331, etc.)
-    Overall seems pro-town

ShadowsEdge (town lean)
Reasons:
-    #64. I don’t feel like the mafia would try to bait the mafia, but it comes off as townish for me. I didn’t read too much into it
-    #96 and #108 feel like genuine criticisms, and it makes me feel like Shadow isn’t just making stuff up
-    #278 gives good reasons for an Andy lynch and clarifies their lynch on Gabe
-    #285 defends Luka by giving reasons why Allen and 2B are scummier

Task (slight town lean)
Reasons:
-    What I’ve said in #158
-    #242 seems townie
-    Basically, I’ve seen a lot of good arguments out of Task

Luka504 (Neutral)
Reasons:
-    I would’ve said slight town lean, but after looking back at his posts, there’s not a lot there
-    The bulk of his posts so far have come from him going against Norwegian
-    He agrees with an Andy lynch but says we should pressure Gabe or Allen into talking (post #228)
-    He’s been pushing Allen to explain the sr on him #330
-    Luka looks like he might prove to be more towny after seeing #298, but right now there’s not enough from him to lean either way.
Basically, there’s still not enough info. If I was forced to pick, I’d say he’s town, but I need more info.

Onjit (Neutral)
Reason:
-    He hasn’t posted enough yet

Gabriel (very slight scum lean)
Reasons:
-    Literally has only 2 posts
-    But not wanting to participate in D1 is scummy

Buzzerbee (slight scum lean)
Reasons:
-    What I’ve said in #158
-    He’s lurking really hard, and it doesn’t help that he asked to be read (#48) and then lurked all day.
-    The most recent vote on me don’t make any sense. Like, they come out of the blue and vote me, give 0 explanation, and go back to lurking. At least tell me why you’re voting for me before vanishing again.

AllenCaspe9510 (scum read)
Reasons:
-    Baseless accusations that people are scum, and when questioned, he gives a BS response. For example, he accuses Norboy of being scum in #178, and then he accuses Luka of being scum in #314, and when Luka asks why, he just says that it’s “personal” in #318, which is just avoiding the question.
-    He didn’t want to participate in D1 (#181)
-    He tried to strawman what I was saying (shown in post #187)
-    He seems to purposely be trying to distract the town with nonsense (#125 he says the cop has 2 shots, #313 asks if we even have a vig)
-    He implies that he thinks Andy is scum in #292 because he “would be so surprised if he [Andy] flipped town”, but then he backpedals when Andy flips town by saying that he knew Andy was town and disagreed with the lynch (#303)
-    He townleans everyone (#292), which shows he’s not even trying to scumhunt
-    Literally every post he’s done has been scummy.

!vote AllenCapse9510

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

Oh I forgot to add Jawapa. He's neutral too because he hasn't posted enough (because he is busy with work) and the vote on Onjit turned out to be a meme.

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

What are you talking about, just because you didn't know the threats about lynching a person in day 1, and your saying that I didn't want to participate?

I rather !endday then reading the threats here, theres not really much you can do in day 1.

Yes, wanting to end the day early is the same as not wanting to participate in the day.

You might be very hasty in finishing the day off, isn't that what a mafia does? Finding an extraction point and going off?

That’s where the strawman is. I didn’t want to end the day early D2. I wanted to say that if we end the day early D1, the next day we’d just be at the same spot we’d left off at from D1, except with 3 less people.

You're the one whose distracting town with non sense. Not even your cop strategy wasn't really on point

I had good intentions with my strategy. I thought it would protect the cop. I thought it was a common enough strategy.

That point where I said "Everyone town lean". I was about to point out that andy might be town but I was too obvious

Then why would you precede a statement that townreads Andy with:

I would be so surprised if he flipped town. And yes, A cop would do well on andy.

Also,

What's the problem about a player who can't show-off enough information?

Basically, all my reads are all town lean. I don't have anything to show yet. Just all town lean, that's it.
I don't come up with alot of intel, so consider this done.

To me, it doesn’t even look like you’re trying to scumhunt, though. And the fact that you finish with “consider this done”, it implies that you don’t have any intentions to continue scumhunting.

I think you’re one of the scum, Allen. Be it SK or mafia, I don’t know. But I am almost certain that you’re scum.
As far as Shadow goes, I’m gonna have to look back at Shadow’s ISO to see what I think on that, but I’ll say something in my next post. I’m going to bed.

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

So, I looked back at the ISO’s for Task and Shadow, and I think it could be argued that either Task or Shadow are tied to Luka.

I'm down for lynching Andy because of the things that happened earlier today
On the other hand inactive players like Gabrielf shouldn't be carried into late game where every single player matters, so it is better that we discard him and players like him as soon as possible if he doesn't make up his mind and start participating in the game

If we accidentally lynch a townie that's not the end of the world and we do gain information by analyzing connections the dead townie had with other members, this sometimes goes as far as confirming other player(s) to be townie(s) which reduces the pool of lynch candidates and brings us closer to winning

Why would Task want to lynch Gabriel, someone who had no connections to anyone, instead of Andy? And it’s not like they could say it was too late to switch votes. 6 hours before the lynch, they said “I voted andy” #289, and then they say “wait no I voted Gabriel” #290. Like I get it that they didn’t want a lurker in the game, but they contradict themselves on why they voted Gabe over Andy.

I agree with points Shadow made and am going to opt out of the whole cop thing because every incorrect guess of a mafia member appearing as not dangerous narrows the pool down
I also don't like Norboy forcing a townblock on D1. Besides the issues mentioned earlier, a townblock created earlier in the game is less likely to be questioned in late game because people barely look into early posts at that point and appeal to tradition kicks in (woah luka, a fallacy? :flush:)
That said, I don't scumread Norboy yet, even though I feel like day 1 townblocking easily could be scum motivated, I just have a gut feeling after all these games that whatever town!norboy does, it comes off as scummy
Pqwerty is a town lean for me
Don't know what to make of Onjit and Luka yet, though Luka raised valid points about townblocking

Looking back at Task’s ISO, this is their only attempt at scumreading and it’s an easy read to make. After that it’s just filler, sheeping, or, just agreeing/disagreeing with people without really pushing anything. Maybe they were laying low (so they don't get shot) because they claim vig, but mafia has the same reasons to lay low.

To me, it looks like Shadow was trying to build a connection with Norboy, so the town would mislynch Norboy if Shadow flipped scum.

So in defense of Shadow, posts #59 and #60 happened almost 2 minutes apart from each other. It’s definitely possible that Shadow and Norboy independently came up with the same opinion at the same time. In #96 and #108, they agree with Norwegian because they have the same disagreement with my idea as Norwegian does. They could just be showing their combined disagreement by agreeing with Norboy.

Allen agreed with it as well. I'm saying I don't think Luka is necessarily the most suspicious of all of them, These 3 are the ones that explicitly stated that they think the cop method is the way to go. 2B is more suspicious for doing a 180 in two posts, and in general for not really posting anything new to the conversation afaik, and Allen is in a similar wagon to Andy, where they're trying to avoid a lynch, and moreso just avoid discussion.

This is Shadow’s defense of Luka. It looks like they’re saying not only to doubt Luka for agreeing with me, because Allen and TNG followed me too.

In addition to all this, I feel like the mafia would be in a good spot to make a gambit like this. If the cop ends up accidentally outing the vig, the mafia can claim vig to cast even more suspicion on them, and then the town ends up mislynching the vig. Then, the SK is forced to make a difficult decision of “Do I kill the cop and potentially face 3 mafia tomorrow (where the majority is 4 to lynch someone)”, or “Do I shoot the confirmed mafia and face being outed by the confirmed cop with no vig slot to hide behind”. And if the gambit doesn’t work for the mafia, the milkman will just convert someone N2, and the town will be forced to find someone who wasn’t scummy until that day. Even if the vig shoots the milkman, their convert still goes off, so we’d basically be dealing with 2 sk’s.
I feel like there isn’t enough information to say who’s mafia and who isn’t. Task and Shadow both have bad reasons to lynch Luka. Task has behavior that could be vig or mafia, and Shadow has behavior that can be read the same.
So, maybe we should take the safe route and lynch someone else today and let the real vig just shoot their cc? It narrows the lynch pool today because there’s 2 less people to pick from. Or would you guys prefer to take the risk of accidentally lynching the vig (a path that I personally disagree with)?

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

I meant to say that both of you had a bad reason to lynch Gabe.
You wanted to lynch Gabe for being inactive. But you say a townie mislynch would be good for the information. The contradiction is that you support a lynch that gives info, but chose to lynch someone that wouldn't give any info.

we have a considerable chance of striking the milkman right now

Wait just a second...how do you know that Shadow is a milkman over a goon or an SK?
I was going to suggest an Allen lynch because he comes across as the scummiest to me.

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

Shoot I need to think this through some more.

There's no way both mafia would cc each other, right? There's no way Task is a goon outing the milkman. But then why are you so certain we're on the verge of killing the milkman, Task?

Pqwerty

Member

From: 'Murica

Joined: 2015-10-09

Posts: 2,078

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

If we accidentally lynch a townie that's not the end of the world and we do gain information by analyzing connections the dead townie had with other members, this sometimes goes as far as confirming other player(s) to be townie(s) which reduces the pool of lynch candidates and brings us closer to winning

There's your citation.

Also, if you assume someone's mafia, there's also a 50% chance they flip goon. So, if you think that Shadow is scum, why do you say that Shadow is the milkman over being a goon?