Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

TaskManager · 2020-06-04 22:02:21

Wow Luka stop flexxing on all of us by saying you have friends irl or I'll fallacy you

ShadowsEdge, 2b55b5g

TaskManager · 2020-06-05 01:35:41

i voted andy

TaskManager · 2020-06-05 01:36:03

wait no i voted gabriel

TaskManager · 2020-06-06 13:24:20

THANK YOU whoever decided to kill peace ?
I believe Luka's hypothesis about SK killing peace and mafia killing 2B makes sense

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

Bruh, Andy was only suggesting no-lynch-policy. I would be so surprised if he flipped town.

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

Because of this, I find this discussion pointless. The Andy claiming scum. Norboy scum, and luka scum

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

all my reads are all town lean. I don't have anything to show yet. Just all town lean, that's it.

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

I knew that andy was a towner

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

I may not wrote it based on my readings

What the hell does all of this mean

TaskManager · 2020-06-06 14:13:41

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

TaskManager wrote:
I believe Luka's hypothesis about SK killing peace and mafia killing 2B makes sense
Ok. What does that tell us?

I think there could be more reason behind mafia kills, thus the town could read into mafia's victims more, on the other hand SK targets are more likely to be random imo
Just cause an SK player is one person while the mafia faction is a conspiracy

TaskManager · 2020-06-06 16:15:33

i've did it yesterday i'll do it again

!vote gabrielffs

Minimania

TaskManager · 2020-06-06 22:57:41

!vote ShadowsEdge

I trust Jawapa's claim
The reads do make sense as well

mrjawapa wrote:

Lynching Luka over Andy would have been a better choice. Luka actually looked scummy, and would have given us clues into other players. Andy was lynched for being quiet.

Andy was lynched for being completely uncooperative and acting very scummy

Norwee, Minimania

TaskManager · 2020-06-06 23:10:15

mrjawapa wrote:

NorwegianboyEE wrote:
I kinda want to see if Shadow responds to this before i do anything tho.
But my vote is on them in spirit.
Oh yeah I should have mentioned, its not a great idea to immediately rack up votes on shadow
But I 100% expect him to claim vig or counter claim cop

Votes don't end the day so I see no reason not to do it
I can revote later if I change my mind

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 00:11:49

Given the reads that Jawapa posted on Shadow beside the investigation result itself, I don't really trust Shadow's vigi claim
It'd be an obvious thing to claim from his perspective, assuming that Jawapa's cop claim is truthful

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 00:13:10

!votecount

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 21:07:37

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

Maybe absolutely nothing is happening because scum isn't worried about this wagon and Shadow is vig.
I'm getting paranoid now.
!Unvote

Imo it's more likely that if shadow and luka are scum they've given up on the game, and the SK doesn't do anything because the shadow wagon is okay for them
Though Shadow might've also been just too busy irl to post (that doesn't clear him of the suspicions but it would explain why he's not trying to fight back)

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 21:16:49

Bruh I had hoped that this wagon would succeed without the need for that just so I can lay low a lil bit longer for **** and giggles

anyway I'm the Vigilante

are you going to vote shadow now?

if shadow flips mafia im shooting luka tonight

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 21:18:30

I've been thinking whether to go ahead and claim or not but in the most likely scenario (shadow flipping mafia) I don't lose anything by claiming today

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 21:18:56

Also why do you think I was so eager to hop on the wagon that jawapa pushed, lol

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 21:20:23

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

and scum partner is Luka and he gave up too like you said?

It's not something I wouldn't expect from him
For Shadow it's out of place, yes, but that might be irl stuff

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 21:22:41

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

TaskManager wrote:
Also why do you think I was so eager to hop on the wagon that jawapa pushed, lol
I never stated that?

I never said you did, but I thought some people would notice it

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 21:27:16

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

TaskManager wrote:
NorwegianboyEE wrote:
TaskManager wrote:
Also why do you think I was so eager to hop on the wagon that jawapa pushed, lol
I never stated that?
I never said you did, but I thought some people would notice it
...What?

sigh

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 21:42:47

mrjawapa wrote:

I think it goes without saying, but if Shadow flips town, task is likely scum; and I'm **** terrible at mafia.

idk what to do if shadow flips SK
I'd like to spend my bullet tonight either way

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 22:40:16

ShadowsEdge wrote:

I was going to address that in the reads list. But yes. He is scum.
Believe me or don't but Task is counterclaiming my slot.

yes i'm counterclaiming your fake vigi claim because im the real vigi
"you're scum! no you!"
is there any point addressing this at all?

mrjawapa

TaskManager · 2020-06-07 23:55:19

ShadowsEdge wrote:

If I was magically confirmed town why would you not go for the fake Vigi claim?

but we're literally going for the fake vigi claim right now lolo

TaskManager · 2020-06-08 01:02:54

Pqwerty wrote:

Why would Task want to lynch Gabriel, someone who had no connections to anyone, instead of Andy?

dispose the inactive players in early game because gabriel isnt doing anything
pretty sure i specified this earlier and i've also said that i have no problem lynching andy (#238)
i ended up not switching the vote to andy because the andy wagon was winning by quite a margin anyway

Pqwerty wrote:

they said “I voted andy” #289, and then they say “wait no I voted Gabriel” #290.

it was an error because i was thinking about andy while posting that i voted gabriel; the posts are literally 20 seconds apart and would be even closer if not for the 20 second posting cooldown

Pqwerty wrote:

Task and Shadow both have bad reasons to lynch Luka

where did i EVER voice any reasons or will to lynch luka other than because of jawapa's cop claim and reads that uncover his ties to shadow?

Pqwerty wrote:

but they contradict themselves on why they voted Gabe over Andy

i was ready to vote either and would've switched to andy if that wagon lacked traction
point out the contradiction

Pqwerty wrote:

So, maybe we should take the safe route and lynch someone else today and let the real vig just shoot their cc? It narrows the lynch pool today because there’s 2 less people to pick from. Or would you guys prefer to take the risk of accidentally lynching the vig (a path that I personally disagree with)?

someone else like who?
we have a considerable chance of striking the milkman right now, doing so will literally deny mafia the possibility to recruit another player
if we sidetrack onto someone else today we
a) run a much higher risk of mislynching a townie
b) give mafia larger chances of using the milkman role
c) in the event that shadow dies and flips mafia, and i die and flip vigi (which is most likely whats going to happen), we have to spend another day pushing a wagon for luka, besides it gives him another day to lie himself out of it
if we resolve this today we
a) have a chance of taking the milk man out before they use their role
b) in the event that shadow flips mafia i can resolve the luka problem overnight
c) tomorrow we can hunt for SK/converted mafia

TaskManager · 2020-06-08 02:00:34

Pqwerty wrote:

Wait just a second...how do you know that Shadow is a milkman over a goon or an SK?

i don't
its a 33% or 50% probability, leaning to 50%, which is a considerable chance

Pqwerty wrote:

But you say a townie mislynch would be good for the information

[citation needed]

TaskManager · 2020-06-08 02:37:42

Pqwerty wrote:

TaskManager wrote:
If we accidentally lynch a townie that's not the end of the world and we do gain information by analyzing connections the dead townie had with other members, this sometimes goes as far as confirming other player(s) to be townie(s) which reduces the pool of lynch candidates and brings us closer to winning
There's your citation.

Yeah I'm saying "accidentally" because I can't know whether they're town or not ahead of time, and it was in response to Andy's "we shouldn't lynch anyone because they might be townie"

Pqwerty wrote:

But you say a townie mislynch would be good for the information.

Your wording here implies that I'm saying lynching a proven townie would be good even if I know they're town prior to the lynch

Pqwerty wrote:

Also, if you assume someone's mafia, there's also a 50% chance they flip goon. So, if you think that Shadow is scum, why do you say that Shadow is the milkman over being a goon?

Bro I literally said there's a 33% (if we count in the SK) or 50% (if we don't) chance to it and that's considerable enough to give it a shot
Quit putting words in my mouth because I never said Shadow is more likely to be milkman than goon

Pqwerty wrote:

The contradiction is that you support a lynch that gives info, but chose to lynch someone that wouldn't give any info.

Also in response to this, I've already said that I supported either of the lynches and I also said why I voted for one and not for the other
Maybe you should read the posts before replying idk

TaskManager · 2020-06-08 14:55:59

Pqwerty wrote:

If I understand this correctly, you were okay with lynching Andy and you also thought Gabriel shouldn’t be carried into the late game because he’s lurking. You also say it would not be the worst thing to happen if we mislynched someone, so even if Andy ended up flipping town, we’d still be okay.

yep

Pqwerty wrote:

So, correct me if I’m wrong, you didn’t lynch Andy because he was going to be lynched anyway? So, in some parallel universe where the Andy wagon didn’t get much traction, you would have switched your vote to Andy?

yep because he was acting clearly scummy

Pqwerty wrote:

Is it possible that you actually did this because you weren’t trying to draw any attention to yourself by changing your vote at the last minute, because you are either the vig or scum and neither of them wants attention? Or is that too big of an assumption?

partly because i didnt care, partly because i checked the thread for a very brief period of time in the middle of doing something else, and partly because hopping on the wagons late is frowned upon

Pqwerty wrote:

So, if we look back at this post, right, you say “we have a considerable chance of striking the milkman right now”. And this struck me as odd because my gut reaction was “why does this guy think Shadow is milkman? Is that some kind of insider information?” But as I said, both mafia wouldn’t claim and cc the vig slot. So, I asked you why you thought Shadow was the milkman, and you said

Pqwerty wrote:

I still don’t understand what you mean, but let’s see if I can piece this together. If we look at point b) for lynching Shadow today, you say that you can resolve the Luka problem. Is it safe to say you think Shadow and Luka are the mafia? And if you’re saying Shadow is the milkman, then are you saying that Luka is the goon? I feel like you’re trying to say that because you think Shadow is mafia, they have a 50% shot of being milkman. But I think my misunderstanding stems from the fact that you lean towards the 50%. How do you lean between two probabilities? Does that mean you think it’s more likely Shadow is mafia, and because of that, there’s probably a 50% chance of flipping mafia? Is that what you’re saying? Again, correct me if I’m wrong. I’m trying to understand so we can stop our chain of misunderstanding.

if we lynch a random irrelevant person instead of shadow today, the chance we hit milk man is abysmal, its still not 0% but its like 1/10 maybe?
if we lynch shadow, the chance is 33%, or 50% if we dismiss the possibility of him being SK
thats it, thats all the math here

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

Here’s an plan.
We let Shadow/Task both live. And ask them both to find the most likely candidate for their CC’s mafia teammate. And lynch whoever’s got the most convincing arguments.

this plan is DUMB because we are way less likely to hit the milk man this way, increasing their chances to use the recruit ability
if we lynch shadow today he MIGHT be the milk man and thats a huge win for us
im NOT saying he DEFINITELY IS the milk man, but odds are considerable

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

@Shadow
@Task
Who do you believe are the likely teammates to the confirmed mafia FYPOV?

if it's not luka then i dont know

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

Let's be honest here, if Task/Luka504 was a team they would 100% murder Peace.

or you're the SK and you killed peace to use this against either luka or myself :flush:

mrjawapa wrote:

Why would task counter claim shadow? Shadows wagon was already moving along

it wasn't really
norboy started doubting himself and unvoted (#401)
and the general gray mass of the people either didn't care or didn't seem convinced by your findings because nobody was voting
so i claimed to give more people confidence on voting shadow
are you seriously going to let a cornered scum that got CC'd on top of that to convince you they're town?

TaskManager · 2020-06-08 15:03:57

TaskManager wrote:

if it's not luka then i dont know

maybe its allen, he's been acting odd entire game and blindly followed a wagon just now

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

I don't trust shadow, I think he has connections with luka, as for task, as much as I've seen. Pretty much neutral.

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

!lynch Taskmanager
I don't trust him

what made you change your mind?

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

I'll have a claim prepared by next day.

well?

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#26 2020-06-04 22:02:21

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#27 2020-06-05 01:35:41

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#28 2020-06-05 01:36:03

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#29 2020-06-06 13:24:20

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#30 2020-06-06 14:13:41

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#31 2020-06-06 16:15:33

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!vote gabrielffs

#32 2020-06-06 22:57:41

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!vote ShadowsEdge

#33 2020-06-06 23:10:15

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#34 2020-06-07 00:11:49

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#35 2020-06-07 00:13:10

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!votecount

#36 2020-06-07 21:07:37

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!Unvote

#37 2020-06-07 21:16:49

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#38 2020-06-07 21:18:30

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#39 2020-06-07 21:18:56

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#40 2020-06-07 21:20:23

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#41 2020-06-07 21:22:41

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#42 2020-06-07 21:27:16

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#43 2020-06-07 21:42:47

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#44 2020-06-07 22:40:16

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#45 2020-06-07 23:55:19

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#46 2020-06-08 01:02:54

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#47 2020-06-08 02:00:34

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#48 2020-06-08 02:37:42

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#49 2020-06-08 14:55:59

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#50 2020-06-08 15:03:57

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!lynch Taskmanager

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