Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

Different55 · 2019-12-03 18:51:00

hey wouldn't it be fun if he were patient zero

Norwee · 2019-12-03 20:30:03

Peace why have you gone so inactive?

Different55 · 2019-12-03 20:51:41

Holy heck did peace lie?

Has he gone silent because he knows he can't contain it???

Nah more likely he's fallen behind on the events of the game and doesn't have any new results or anything to offer up yet. Maybe he's asleep/at school/work.

mutantdevle

peace · 2019-12-03 21:54:02

im here god i need to read so many posts i hop ei have enough tim eto read them before i need to go to bed but ill try to adress some things if i can because im not really sure IF the hitman exist or if he was just in kirby's rolecard for IF he woudl exist (onjit made all the roles and wincons then used a rnadomizer to give each player a role) but its alos weird that pqwerty hansr roleclaimed yet despite almost everyone (or did everyone) rolecalimed yet im gonna check that out

peace · 2019-12-03 21:58:59

okay ill just wirte the cliams we got:

Onjit wrote:

Crybaby claimed vig
ShadowsEdge claimed town RB
Slabdrill claimed victory cop (checks winconditions)
mutantdevle claimed fac. cop
peace role cop
NorwegianboyEE (Innocent Child)
Pqwerty -
Different55 bassicaly outed as patient 0 doesnt directly claim it
ZeldaXD claimed brothers in arm

soo only pqwerty hanst cliamed yet maby he coudl get in danger if he claims? if what mutant is saying he has a few target sthat neeeds to be lynched/killed and he wants to stay quited of that (asuming that is whathitman is what mutant keep sthinking) then if he cliams we can maby help him win? (asumign he isnt a thread for us ofc) if he shares his role we can help him if he isnt a thread for us or we can give him advice

peace · 2019-12-03 22:11:55

alos as for who is scum many have claimed im gonan trusst mutant cs cliam i do not know why mutant would busss kira like that ccrybaby who cliamed vig an dmissed hsis shot on diff seems weird maby diff coudl portect him self from shots so his faction woudltn die so easily shadows roleblock on diff is alos weird diff clearly infected me (i voted him and he infected me becuase i had a misfortune on voting them) so thats somethign werid but i cant say for sur ehwo these mechanics are slab claiming an unknow cop (atleats for me) and outing mutant (safe bet as mutant cliame dbefore slab) is somehting that im not sure of i can understand his reason tbh aka he wanted to out an strong player but why woudl we have such an cop is its almost liek the fac. cop? for norweg auto trusting onjit on this is what we should do however if norweg DID vote for diff and dif choosed norweg to infect (asumign diff can only inect 1 person like me) then auto trusting closed setups with an IC can b eliek... zelda's cliam is an town block if zelda was mafia then the other brother in arm coudl easily out zelda wiht an CC losing the botrhter in arm was no loss and sure an CC would at most cost us the brother in arm but gives an EZ scum aswell none CCéd so zelda is town block Pqwerty is eithe rhitman or some werid role he doesnt wanna share yet or maby he has actiosn on specific days (dont trust closed setups) so based on claims i think victory cop doesnt exist and lsab might be lying crybaby's vig claim is also a bit meh but im gonna trust that a bit as idk diffs card and diff didnt die N2 despite not infectign someone shadows role block clliam is the same as crybabys vig im nto sure baout diffs rolecard or wheter infectio IS an Night action soo maby one of these 3 or pqwerty if hitman is a thread and he is hitman

Pqwerty · 2019-12-04 00:25:49

Listen guys. I did the math and to save you guys time, I'm just gonna say up here that there's an 100% chance that town will win if we lynch a mafia today, and only a 40% chance of town winning if we lynch the hitman today. So, we should aim for the mafia today, and the hitman later. If you want the math, it’s down here.

First, let’s see why town has a 100% chance of winning if they lynch a mafia member today. If they vote out a mafia member today, there will be only one mafia left, and the roleblocker and faction cop can get on them. No one will die because of the block, and faction cop will know the final scum. Then they just vote off mafia, followed by the hitman. There is no possible way to break this.

Second, let’s see why town has a 40% chance of winning if they lynch hitman first. There are seven possible scenarios, and I’ll walk you through each of them.
1) If the Mafia try to kill Mutant and the Roleblocker fails to block them, then Mutant, Peace, and Zelda will all die (Peace and Zelda will die from not infecting). The next day, the town will lynch one of the mafia (because it will literally just be the IC, Roleblocker, Patient 0, and 2 mafia, so finding a mafia will be easy). The roleblocker will block the remaining mafia member, so no one will die that night. Then, with a town majority, the other mafia member will be lynched, and the town will win.
2) If the Mafia try to kill Mutant and the Roleblocker does block them, then Mutant will have a read on the last mafia member, making their lynch quick and easy. Then, the roleblocker will block the last mafia member, no one will die, and the last mafia will be lynched, and the town will win.
Note: the mafia will not choose these above options (because they both guarantee a town win), so we can disregard them. They will not choose to kill Mutant unless they want to lose.
Scenarios 3-6 start like this: If Mafia try to kill Roleblocker and the Roleblocker fails to block them, then the roleblocker will die. Mutant will get a read on the mafia, and town will have enough people to lynch a mafia member. The remaining mafia member will kill Mutant, leaving 1 town, 1 maf, and 1 patient 0.
This leads us to scenarios 3-6:
3) Mafia is lynched and town wins
4) Patient 0 is lynched and mafia wins by getting majority.
5) Town is lynched and mafia wins by getting majority.
6) No one is lynched, mafia kills town or patient, and mafia wins by majority.
Scenario 7 is literally if Mafia tries to kill Roleblocker, but gets blocked. It gets the same result as scenario 2.

In total, there are 3 scenarios where mafia wins, 2 scenarios where the town would win, and 2 impossible scenarios (because mafia would never pick them). So, the town has a 2/5 (40%) chance of winning and mafia has a 3/5 (60%) chance of winning.

Alternatively, we can all ruin this setup by voting and unvoting peace, Zelda, and Diff, so that we all become infected and everyone wins as the fever faction. This is an appealing idea for all scum roles because Patient 0 has a 0% chance of winning (because there are no cases where patient 0 wins), Hitman has a 0% chance of winning (because there are no scenarios where hitman wins), and Mafia has a 60% chance of winning if and only if the town decides to lynch hitman before mafia.

ShadowsEdge · 2019-12-04 01:11:45

Thank you Pqwerty for breaking down the best way for the Mafia to win where the Mafia can see.

Even so, I do agree that our best bet is to go for a mafia, regardless of Pqwerty's assessment, and that's simply because if there's only one mafia left, then there's a higher chance for me to roleblock the remaining mafia.

I don't trust Crybaby or Different, Crybaby knows how scummy he looks, but what bothers me is how open to debate he's keeping his reads. Sure, that can be a sign that he's trying not to make the wrong move, but he's kept Mutant and Peace, who are both generally considered town now, as well as myself and Slabdrill, as a "possible madia." That in itself is odd, because he's only posting his reads while not actually engaging with anyone he considers possible suspects. The only one he's actually engaged with was myself, and knowing my own alignment makes that all the more suspicious.

I feel that Crybaby is leaving his reads open-ended because he wants to remove the town read of Peace and Mutant. Because with the current block Mutant suggested, which I believe more to be true, only myself, Crybaby, and Slabdrill are suspects of being mafia.

Although, I agree with everything mentioned before, in that Pqwerty, likely being the Hitman, wants Crybaby to be lynched so that he can fulfill his wincon. His last post only further supports that he's most likely the Hitman, because he's against lynching the Hitman at this point in time. I also believe Slabdrill is mafia, more just by PoE. So I'll be following the lynch.

!vote Slabdrill

Norwee · 2019-12-04 01:21:57

I’m still a bit unsure whether Slabdrill is the best choice, because Mutant DID get a clear. So it makes more sense to not gamble today and rather lynch the fake claiming "vig"

!Vote Crybaby

Onjit · 2019-12-04 01:23:18

Current Votes:

[2] Slabdrill: ZeldaXD, ShadowsEdge
[2] Crybaby: Pqwerty, Norboy

Pqwerty · 2019-12-04 01:26:41

ShadowsEdge wrote:

Thank you Pqwerty for breaking down the best way for the Mafia to win where the Mafia can see.

I broke down how the town can win, not how the mafia win. There's literally a 100% chance of town winning if it lynches a mafia today, as explained above.

Norwee · 2019-12-04 01:29:36

Like i said. By PoE Crybaby is the best choice, because while Slabdrill has been looking a bit shifty. Crybaby has been literally open-wolfing this game.

ShadowsEdge · 2019-12-04 01:38:39

I suppose. I was just following the whole ideal that possibly Pqwerty's wincon could be fulfilled by doing so. But Crybaby is more scummy. So I'll follow you on that unless information comes up proving otherwise.

!vote Crybaby

Norwee · 2019-12-04 01:38:54

Reminder to myself to check for a mafia connection between Crybaby and ShadowsEdge tommorow.

Norwee · 2019-12-04 01:40:45

Reaspn is you two are both mafia suspects, and were both both on board with voting mafia suspect Slabdrill. So by vote count analyzis that concludes Slab might be town after all.

ShadowsEdge · 2019-12-04 01:44:21

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

Reaspn is you two are both mafia suspects, and were both both on board with voting mafia suspect Slabdrill. So by vote count analyzis that concludes Slab might be town after all.

And here I was thinking we were just becoming friends.

In all seriousness, my reasoning voting Slabdrill has nothing to do with Crybaby. Crybaby, and Kira (now confirmed scum), are both against me. Crybaby refuses to acknowledge any level of townnishness that Kira's actions against me brings, and instead kept me at the same level as the rest of their mafia suspects. My vote on Slabdrill is because I find both Crybaby and Slabdrill equally suspicious of being Mafia, because of PoE and generally their demeanor throughout the game. I just chose Slabdrill because of Mutant's assessment that Crybaby could be one of Pqwerty's "Targets."

Norwee · 2019-12-04 01:48:07

If a mafia is Pqwerty’s target then there is no way town can even win. It would be a fundamentally broken setup.
And Crybaby is mafia so...

ShadowsEdge · 2019-12-04 01:51:16

I suppose so then.

Norwee · 2019-12-04 02:06:52

Slabdrill. Assuming you’re town. You should find out what Pqwerty’s win condition is tonight.
Peace and Mutant should both target Shadow.
That’s the best night actions if we lynch Crybaby today imo.

Onjit · 2019-12-04 02:22:54

Current Votes:

[3::L-2] Crybaby: Pqwerty, Norboy, ShadowsEdge
[1] Slabdrill: ZeldaXD

Different55 · 2019-12-04 02:46:14

I'm cool with Crybaby.

!vote Crybaby

There, Onjit, I used your H.

Different55 · 2019-12-04 02:47:06

Calling it now, Crybaby flips P0

Onjit · 2019-12-04 02:55:56

Current Votes:

[4::L-1] Crybaby: Pqwerty, Norboy, ShadowsEdge, Diff
[1] Slabdrill: ZeldaXD

Ty diff ily bb <3

Minimania · 2019-12-04 03:06:39

Im not a Mafia member, but even if I was Mafia, you're about to lose to the Hitman anyway.

Minimania · 2019-12-04 03:11:51

Different55 wrote:

Calling it now, Crybaby flips P0

Question for tomorrow, since they're about to mislynch me anyway and you're the P0 for sure

If you infect Pqwerty tonight, would his role no longer apply? If yes, then this could give people an opening to lynch people without worrying about the Hitman winning.

If this is the case, then Shadow, don't roleblock Diff, let him infect Pqwerty

Official Everybody Edits Forums

#801 2019-12-03 18:51:00

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#802 2019-12-03 20:30:03

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#803 2019-12-03 20:51:41

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#804 2019-12-03 21:54:02

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#805 2019-12-03 21:58:59

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#806 2019-12-03 22:11:55

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#807 2019-12-04 00:25:49

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#808 2019-12-04 01:11:45

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

!vote Slabdrill

#809 2019-12-04 01:21:57

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

!Vote Crybaby

#810 2019-12-04 01:23:18

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#811 2019-12-04 01:26:41

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#812 2019-12-04 01:29:36

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#813 2019-12-04 01:38:39

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

!vote Crybaby

#814 2019-12-04 01:38:54

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#815 2019-12-04 01:40:45

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#816 2019-12-04 01:44:21

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#817 2019-12-04 01:48:07

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#818 2019-12-04 01:51:16

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#819 2019-12-04 02:06:52

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#820 2019-12-04 02:22:54, last edited by Onjit (2019-12-04 02:23:04)

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#821 2019-12-04 02:46:14

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

!vote Crybaby

#822 2019-12-04 02:47:06

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#823 2019-12-04 02:55:56

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

#824 2019-12-04 03:06:39

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#825 2019-12-04 03:11:51

Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]

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