mutantdevle wrote:Crybaby, if you are town here, then I feel that perhaps you have not understood as to how I've got to the conclusions that I have.
Unless it isn't more than your intuition that the Mafia aren't taking the nominations seriously, logic I consider flawed, then by all means, tell me more.
mutantdevle wrote:- I considered it a possibility during the night that peace and I would be in the pool together, or at the very least, one of us would be (favouring peace). I believed this based on my own intuition.
This is, from my point of view, a very odd conclusion to make, and a very specific one at that. Please understand this.
mutantdevle wrote:- Upon learning I was correct, I figured that the 3rd person would also likely be town as I found it unlikely that the mafia would put one of their own in a pool with peace and I. (again, intuition).
How do you know that you are correct, or how did you learn that you are? This is a legitimate question, not an attack. Because if there is some sort of pool of evidence that you're drawing from, then I would love to study it. Unless that was just a figure of speech, in which case, I will ignore the first sentence.
You say that intuition led you to believe the Mafia would not put one of their own as a nominee with you and Peace. This is another conclusion I find oddly specific. Given that it's based off of intuition, I don't think that conclusion is foolproof- you don't either.
mutantdevle wrote:- I believed that peace should be the one to keep alive because him becoming obvious town from his posting was more valuable to me than shadow's contributions as I did not believe that my conclusion of the 3rd person being town was completely foolproof.
I agree in that Peace is the one I want to keep alive the most out of the current nominees, but only in that sense. I just simply town-lean him more than either you or Shadow.
Why? Because, as you describe, Peace is easier to read than you or Shadow.
mutantdevle wrote:- The only thing that I thought would make me reconsider my stance was if it became obvious that peace was mafia and that my intuition was actually ultimately wrong. I believe peace should be read on an "assume he's town until it's clear he's not" basis especially in light of him being in the pool.
Okay
mutantdevle wrote:- I then noticed TaskManager's post where he mentions Onjit's claim. This, combined with my opinion on the pool being all town, gave me enough confidence in my town read on shadow to consider it just as unlikely to be wrong as my read on peace.
Okay
mutantdevle wrote:- Hence, with Shadow and peace both looking as equally townie as each other, the obvious action to take is to instead lynch peace as he no longer has that advantage over shadow that I considered him to have originally.
I'm going to ignore that I don't agree with the evidence that otherwise townclears Shadow for a bit. There still isn't any super solid evidence that confirms you as town, aside from the likeliest scenario in my opinion that the nominees today are all town. Again, my disagreement on Onjit's intentions aside, you're the greatest unknown in this scenario. Besides intuitions, there has been nothing to grasp to gain a solid read on you until our discussion picked up.
mutantdevle wrote:- You have stated that you also think that the pool is likely to be all town.
- This means that you agree with my conclusion but not with my reasoning.
Yes.
mutantdevle wrote:- You then attack and try to disprove my reasoning.
- As town, you'd have no reason to do this. So what if my logic is flawed? It results in the same reads as you.
You ever come across a weird instance in a math test where you use the incorrect formula to solve a problem, but by chance, you get the right answer anyway? This is why I attacked and tried to disprove your reasoning. I think that it is flawed, and even though we come to the same conclusions today, that does not mean we will come to the same conclusions in the future.
Mutant, you're a strong player, wouldn't you say? You have a lot of outstanding experience in this game. Your words are a lot more easier to trust, because they come from someone who has experience in the game. Perhaps, even, people might try to emulate your playstyle to better themselves at the game. I don't want people to mindlessly just take your logic and reasoning at face value and believe it as if they are rules or something like that. I provided my own alternative viewpoint. It is not up to me to decide if people believe it or not. Some already seem to, some seem to disbelieve it. It's more like I'm checking you.
mutantdevle wrote:- Why would you try to debate me on my reads if you agree with my reads?
I am trying to debate you on your logic.
mutantdevle wrote:- All of your comments towards my theories seem to be made with the intention of either trying to get me to reconsider my reads / have anyone reading the argument think I'm scum for the way I've formed my reads.
I am trying to get you to reconsider the process you used to acquire your reads. Your leans today just so happen to be the same as mine, so why would I tell others to scum read you for them when they're the same? I'm trying to debate with your logic.
mutantdevle wrote:- Why would you want me to reconsider my reads if you agree with them?
I am trying to get you to reconsider the process you used to acquire your reads. I'm trying to debate with your logic.
mutantdevle wrote:- If you didn't agree with my reads, and instead thought that Shadow or peace were mafia, then I'd understand you trying to deconstruct my opinion to this level. But at the moment, based on what you've said of your own opinions, you are just arguing for the sake of arguing.
I'm trying to debate with your logic.
mutantdevle wrote:- You've seemingly picked up a mantra that you want people to think for themselves so you provide them with theories that you don't believe in (things they can easily think about themselves without you needing to point them out).
Having more than one point of view and multiple theories to kick-off ideas can help people do that. I have much less ideas for today than I would for tomorrow. I don't even agree with all of the theories that I gave.
mutantdevle wrote:- It's like you don't want people to come to the same conclusion that you did.
I do not want to decide for people what choices they make, or what they believe. I want to challenge them to make their own choice with what I think is logical. And if you disagree with the logic, that's fine. Bring it up, talk about it. I'm trying to debate with your logic.
mutantdevle wrote:- This LAMIST approach of "I'm not influencing people's opinions!" just looks like attempts to look busy and contribute to the game without really adding anything.
I don't claim to not have an influence on people's opinions. If I wanted to have zero influence, I would say nothing.
mutantdevle wrote:- Everything you've done just feels like a setup to put enough doubt into Shadow and I that after today's lynch it would be reasonable to still consider us for lynches later on.
That does sound reasonable. Living today does not clear you of all charges. We have had instances in past Mafia games where someone who was high-profile before a deciding lynch lived to see the next day, and then something happened that took the town's attention away from that person, and then the high-profile that person had attained was suddenly forgotten. It's happened with TaskManager and (ironically) Shadow within memory. I said on day 1 that just being nominated does not town clear you. If it wasn't fairly obvious, living an even-numbered night doesn't town clear you either. So, I have no problem with this point you made at all.
mutantdevle wrote:Note that although you have not explicitly stated you town read me, peace or Shadow, your belief that the pool being all town is the optimal way to play for scum and hence what the mafia have most likely done would suggest that you do. And you have not explicitly said that any of us are scum either.
There are a few things keeping me from outright making a decision on all three of you, or at least, that have done so. The first thing I wanted to know is the reactions I got. Shadow seems to agree with what I have to say. Peace read some of what I said and was turned away from what he had originally believed in, enough to make me one of his only town reads. You are on the complete opposite side of the spectrum, in that you disagree.
Well, I've actually come to a conclusion now, and believe it or not, I scum-read Shadow more than I do either you or Peace, but I'm still convinced that all three of you are more than likely town.
Why do I scum-lean Shadow the most?
- He has only agreed with me and nothing more. With this, he has left me not much room to dissect his posts.
- I think Onjit's story is a burning pile of ash.
- He has historically been hard to read for us simply because of his relatively new arrival to our forum Mafia games and I'm not fully confident in his playstyle, and I might not be alone in this.
However, I do suspect that scum!Shadow would try to agree with me and try to be on my radar least. I had suspected that you (MutantDevle) regardless of your alignment would heavily disagree with me, beyond just me attacking your logic, and would question what I had to say. Lastly, I think we all by now would have guessed what Peace would have done.
Unless I missed some important tell on Shadow in previous games, then I have no belief that his agreeing with me is town-motivated, and I believe he is trying to fly under the radar. (I've already dissected a few posts. Most of them were from you, Mutant, but one or a few were from Peace. I don't have much reads on Shadow. He is a stronger player than Peace, and yet has less to say than him.