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#58 2019-10-21 14:17:45
- NoNK
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- Joined: 2019-07-13
- Posts: 922
Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]
tfw the mafia team is probably all the people sitting back, watching.
Imagine my frustration when I called that out yesterday and everyone laughed me off. Town has been imploding all day and no one wants to do anything about it.
@Norwegianboy You wanna give us a readslist before you die?
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#61 2019-10-21 14:25:04
- NoNK
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- Joined: 2019-07-13
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Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]
@Diff Sorry, I've been avoiding engaging with you because I know arguing back and forth with you won't convince either of us. At this point norwegian being flipped either this day or this night is a done deal so there's /really/ no point now.
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#63 2019-10-21 14:39:44
- NoNK
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- Joined: 2019-07-13
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Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]
NoNK wrote:@Diff Sorry, I've been avoiding engaging with you because I know arguing back and forth with you won't convince either of us. At this point norwegian being flipped either this day or this night is a done deal so there's /really/ no point now.
That's another question that's been asked multiple times by multiple people. To the point that you asked for multiple people to give their suspicions on Norboy so you could respond. If this many people think he's a credible threat you should be leaping on it if you're town.
Instead, we got "Sorry I don't want to hear it unless you're suddenly and inexplicably abandoning all suspicion on Norboy"
A lot of people thought peace was a credible threat too. You of all people should know that consensus doesn't mean that we caught a spicy mafia, it just means that mafia is okay with it happening. And yeah, at this point mafia are probably bussing norwegian if he's scum. The fact that he won't give a reads list is bad news.
Context though: in the french revolution, norwegian played overly agressive. He was doctor, he got lynched. He flipped doctor. I had reasonable expectation of him being a PR from his claim up until now where he thinks he isn't going to die for some reason despite literally claiming doctor.
Norwegian why the heck are you not giving reads if you're town?
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#64 2019-10-21 15:00:53
- NoNK
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- Joined: 2019-07-13
- Posts: 922
Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]
What’s there to say? If Kira actually is town then he deserves to lose. I’m not helping him dig himself out of the hole he’s creating for himself by claiming i’m aggressive, yet being an hyped up overly aggressive douche himself.
Do you realize that I am the one who asked you for a readslist? You know, me, NoNK your old town buddy? Because I want to solve this game?
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#69 2019-10-22 22:28:46
- NoNK
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Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]
This is mylo though, so we should really be trying to find potential scumteams.
I think zelda and task are onto something with the onjit -- daneeko connection. I called out onjit as town with the assumption that norwegianboy was going to flip mafia (since his vote on norwegian didn't feel like a bussing vote), turns out that assumption was wrong.
Keep in mind also: Kira died last night, and he was the one who originally suggested daneeko as a compromise lynch. That wagon didn't gain a lot of traction and went nowhere. Voters were myself, kira, and mrjawapa, 3 town imo.
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#70 2019-10-22 22:44:48
- NoNK
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- Joined: 2019-07-13
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Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]
Yo onjit, your iso is 90% funposting and 10% voting for town
At first I was like "hey he's having fun he's probably town" and now im like "hey he's having fun while town burns to the ground" so whats your take on the game dawg?
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#72 2019-10-23 01:45:30
- NoNK
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- Joined: 2019-07-13
- Posts: 922
Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]
Yeah, there's just too much in this game for me to jump to conclusions off of the top of my head and have any degree of confidence in them. I've got a group project tomorrow and an midterm thursday, but I'll try to make time to re-read this game somewhere in there.
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#73 2019-10-23 16:06:09
- NoNK
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- Posts: 922
Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]
NoNK wrote:I feel like determining zelda's alignment is the key to solving this game
What do you think would be the game solution considering I am town?
I'm very "busy" "studying" right now and totally not procrastinating and reading online mafia games,
but the tl;dr is I think mrjawapa is confident town, and if we can also write off zelda as confident town, that also points to daneeko + shadow being town, and that pretty much solves the game - I'm gonna make a proper analysis of all this later tonight and see if that makes any sense
btw if anyone can link me any good resources on Determiner Phrase Rules in X-bar theory that would be awesome, I'm having trouble finding them
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#74 2019-10-23 17:30:47
- NoNK
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- Posts: 922
Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]
Lunch break. Dumping thought process in this post, feel free to ask questions if I miss anything
ZeldaXD is the biggest tossup slot for me and here's why:
Points in favor of Town Zelda:
1. He's had mostly consistent arguments throughout the game, and some logic/supporting points.
2. Gut read says he doesn't feel like mafia. His tone also does not feel like mafia.
Points in favor of Scum Zelda:
1. Mafia love to hedge their bets. While is is likely to find scum ON town wagons, Zelda's major contributions to the game have been on day 1, voicing support for the peace wagon without voting on it. On day 2, he voiced support for the norwegianboy wagon (saying that potentially I was mafia partners with norwegianboy because we trusted each other). Zelda has stayed off 2 wagons on town while voicing support for them.
2. Now on day 3, Zelda is using wagons as a motivation to search for suspects, citing that myself, daneeko, and Onjit have been on both wagons. This shows that Zelda is clearly cognisant about how he and other people appear on wagons, meaning it's not a far fetched theory to say that mafia!zelda intentionally stayed off wagons that he had an opportunity to vote on and said he supported.
3. This point is further supported by the fact that he goes off on jawapa/daneeko/myself for not unvoting norwegianboy after claiming doctor even though he he gave up in a scummy way.
So my problem with zelda's slot is that his tone and motivation seems town in the moment, but when I go back and look at the posts he's been making and the agendas he has supported, it looks basically just like a lurker scum fishing for townreads by posting some logic and agreeing with whatever's popular.
So back to my point about how solving zelda's alignment solves the game, if zelda is scum, obviously we just lynch zelda and survive another day. However, if my tone read on zelda is accurate, and he is town, that points to shadow also being town since they are mutually townreading each other and have been soft-aligning (like how myself and norwegian were both town). Daneeko town from that requires some more explanation, explaining below:
Onjit and Daneeko are comparable in terms of content. Their ISO's are mostly funposting and they voted on town. The difference is that Daneeko has an excuse (he's a new player), and there's a reason to townread him (he didn't crack under pressure), whereas with onjit, he's kind of just... furthering the scum agenda and having fun doing it. Based on this, Daneeko is likely town, and if onjit is scum, he's pretty much clear in my eyes. If onjit flips town, our vigilante/serial killer should probably aim for Daneeko tonight, since it's more than likely there is one between them.
tl;dr of post 1:
The reasons for scumreading Daneeko apply to Onjit, but the reasons for townreading Daneeko don't apply to Onijt. Onjit is more likely mafia than Daneeko. Anyone townies that are scumreading daneeko and ignoring onjit need to re-evaluate based on this.
Zelda and Shadowsedge are likely the same alignment because of the way they're soft-aligning.
There are good arguments in favour of zelda being town or mafia and I'm having trouble discerning that. More on why that's important in the next post.
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#75 2019-10-23 17:42:49
- NoNK
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- Joined: 2019-07-13
- Posts: 922
Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]
At the start of day 2, my initial scumread on diff was for the reasons that he was sitting back and letting town implode. On day 2, he came under a lot of fire from myself and Kira and myself, and so my initial reasons for scumreading him were invalidated, so I bumped him up to town. At the end of the day I called him a confident town assuming norwegianboy was going to flip mafia and that he lead a successful wagon on mafia despite me fighting against it.
Today however, now that the heat has come off him, diff is back to his old ways. There's a few posts that I find scummy, but to keep myself from wallposting I'll just showcase the most obvious one:
We will have no solid proof for anybody. I'm not stuck on Daneeko and I'd happily go for anyone else but I'd love to hear your reasoning why you'd refuse to vote for Daneeko except for in currently-impossible circumstances.
So we're in MYLO, and your take on the game is that you prefer the consensus lynch, okay fair its a consensus for a reason, but "I'd happily go for anyone else"? Literally how on earth does a town aligned player come up with that statement when we're on the verge of losing the game altogether?
tl;dr
I don't think daneeko is mafia, I don't think task is mafia, I don't think mrjawapa is mafia, and I know I'm town. That narrows half the game down.
If zelda is town, the scumteam is likely Onjit / Diff + 1 because Onjit and Diff independently have the highest mafia equity and make sense as hedging partners (Onjit pushes, diff sits back and chills). The +1 is unlikely to be Zelda/Shadow and is probably one of my townreads.
If zelda is mafia, the scumteam is likely Zelda / Shadow + 1, because Zelda and Shadow have been aligning and staying ~in the shadows~ townreading each other. The +1 is almost certainly not different55, but could be Onjit.
Of the possibilities I listed, I think Onjit / Diff is the most probable option since the simplest possible answer is that Zelda/Shadow is a paranoia team based on faulty logic (like how NoNK + Norwegian was based on faulty logic), and Onjit and Diff have been independently scummy. And by occam's razor, the simplest solution is the most likely one.
Lynching daneeko today potentially loses us the game if you're assuming he's my partner, because I'm town.
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