Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

NoNK · 2019-10-19 00:05:40

2B is a mafia player who (as far as I know) has a tendency of being really cautious and self depreciating as town, and more blunt and to the point as mafia.

TaskManager, ShadowsEdge, 2b55b5g, Onjit, Slabdrill

NoNK · 2019-10-19 01:22:37

ShadowsEdge wrote:

Another thing I don't like are the two "Wagons," I suppose I'll call them. It's not even 6 hours into the first day, and there's already a vote on Norwegian, and two on Kira. I understand the sentiments against the both of them, but it's never a good idea to start wagons so early into the day.

Yo let me just cut on real quick and say that this is MEGA false and wagons give town information peace out ok

NoNK · 2019-10-19 15:19:57

Haha, this game is really starting to heat up. Sure would be nice if I wasn't hilariously swamped with work. I'm going to give this game a proper read sometime today, but right now I'm getting bad vibes from shadow and diff due to the whole non-agression thing they're playing, not sure what to think of jawapa being super defensive and replying to every single thing point by point which feels choppy. I don't like the norwegianboy wagon, I think that's scum backed (diff) for sure. Lynching norwegian d2 is pretty awful imo because due to the nature of his agression he's going to make his alignment super obvious once we get into midgame.

Probably going to do a manual vote count when I reread because I have no idea where the wagons are.

yeah I think there's enough content to get a read on almost anyone now except maybe slab/zelda, I'll have to give it a read today. Also if Kira could go ahead and start reading like he

Norwee

NoNK · 2019-10-19 17:16:58

I skimmed a few iso's, here's my take on the game.

{ Onjit, Taskmanager } -- Might be a bit unpopular putting taskmanager so high on my readslist, but he's actually super different this game then he is as mafia. If you read his latest posts against norwegianboy, while I do disagree with him, he's clearly using some logic that I don't expect scum task to pull out, I would expect him to sheep in a more hands off way if he was maf. Onjit is chilltown 4 life.

{ Norwegianboy, Daneeko } -- Town lynchbait tier. These are the people who I think are town that have likely been pushed on by scum. Kira and diff are suspects for trying to mislynch the day 1 leader. It makes sense in context with how the mafia seems to be playing, since mafia made a zero information nightkill last night, they most likely see him as mislynchable.

{ ZeldaXD, Slabdrill } null tier

{ Jawapa } Jawapa is being defensive, for some reason he keeps going down lists of quotes and replying and defending himself. I don't think that makes him mafia in and of itself, and I feel like there are better suspects to look into today. Scumlean, but like, not lynchworthy.

{ Kira, Shadowsedge } - There's good reason to suspect both of these people. Kira for the sus votes, shadowsedge for playing game narrator. However, we are waiting on both of them to reply to posts, so these are both volatile positions, liable to shoot up or down depending on future events

{ Different55 } - Textbook EE forums scum. He let the mislynch on peace happen by not really doing much about it except for lightly voicing how he didn't like it. Now that the wagon passed, he's attacking the guy who lead the wagon. This is scummy for a few reasons:

1. wagon leaders are less likely to be mafia, mafia tend to jump on wagons, (obviously this isn't a 100%, obviously mafia can and do lead wagons but less so on day 1 where they're going to draw a lot of attention to themself)
2. While there likely was mafia on the wagon, attacking the townie who lead the wagon does not help to find the mafia(s) who hopped on the wagon, it actually distracts from that
3. Once the wagon leader flips town, everyone just forgets about the fact that there was probably mafia on that wagon because the leader just flipped green, allowing mafia to push their agenda without getting any blood on their hands

Also another reason for scumreading diff

4. There are a lot of wagons right now, and of all the people being talked about, diff is getting talked about only casually, and getting basically 0 votes or actual pressure on him. The slow speed of the suspicion on diff is scum indicative.

I think there's a considerable chance his motivation right now is to be pushing town!norwgian to distract from his partners who were on the wagon and are currently under suspicion (Kira?), though it's unlikely all of that falls perfectly into place just due to how theories don't usually work out perfect in mafia.

I;m still keeping my vote on Kira since this game has majority lynches, and I don't think the momentum is there for a diff lynch today (plus lynching kira gives information about diff, potentially a 2 for 1 combo meal deal), but if a wagon starts building there I 100% intend to hop on.

Norwee, Slabdrill

NoNK · 2019-10-19 17:44:36

hm, i thought there were 3 votes on kira. lack of votecounts is messing with my head.

!vote DIFFERENT55

NoNK · 2019-10-19 17:45:41

I realize I'm probably just doing this for "I told you so" points and we are probably going to have to mislynch today in order to hit mafia but still like come on man, I call out what I see

NoNK · 2019-10-19 19:32:30

Diff55: Norboy, NoNK, Daneeko
Norwegian: Diff55, Kira

6 is majority

It felt like more people were voting but guess not. That's a sign that more people should probably be voting.

NoNK · 2019-10-19 20:17:35

The fact that diff thinks he was townleaning is a grade B+ yikes

Norwee

NoNK · 2019-10-19 20:25:23

Coming up tonight on the Yikes report:

- Diff has more votes than norwegianboy despite the popular opinion seemingly tending towards norwegianboy
- The wagon leader is getting all the blame for the wagon and any potential mafia on the wagon are getting off scot free
- Somehow only one other person is seeing a problem with this

NoNK · 2019-10-20 14:59:16

Onjit wrote:

Onjit wrote:
My question is this: What are we set to gain from a Diff lynch, over say a Jawp or Kira lynch? Both are also quite suspicious imo.
Repeating this question because it seems to have been ignored/missed

As much as I would love to lynch diff just because I've already put so much stock into that, I'm actually starting to think Kira might be a better lynch

Sure, diff isn't using perfect logic in all his posts (everybody does that all the time) but if you read him by tone, it feels like there's at least a degree of righteous indignation there that doesn't jump out as fake?

Sure I will admit I can't really put my finger on it but my main point is that when you look at Diff's ISO, and you look at Kira's ISO, the case on diff is that he's a fly on the wall spookily staying off wagons and not pushing any agenda except to get himself townread and uh... that doesn't really apply any more, does it. Because if norwegianboy flips town, an angry mob probably just kills him tomorrow, and if he's town then we end up in a stupid cycle where town just keeps killing yesterday's leader until we lose.

On the other hand the Kira case is that he's mafia who hops on the popular wagon for mediocre reasons and... he's still doing it. Read kira's iso D2, read diff's iso D2. Read norwegianboy for good measure. Which one of these people is most likely mafia?

Still kira, lol. Norwegian pointed out that my kira scumcase got a ton of woots, and my diff scumcase got like 2 woots, and in terms of votes, they had a comparable level of support (3 votes at peak). I don't think it's because diff is a stealthy mafia boi and his partners don't support it, I think it's because people townread him and are sus about norwegian bashing heads with him. On the other hand, there sure was a lot of support (and no actual action) in kira's direction, so I mean there's really a nonzero chance this entire conflict is TvT and kira is STILL being the fly on the wall I accused him of being earlier today.

!vote KIRA

Onjit

NoNK · 2019-10-20 15:00:16

Norboy if I could get your take on my post that would be great - yeah diff is going around saying things with questionable truth, maybe you are too, but that's what happens when you argue over semantics all day.

Do you think Kira is just in a position where he's sitting back and letting town implode on itself and we're all getting played Y/N

NoNK · 2019-10-20 15:18:36

I get that you're 1v1ing diff right now but I just feel like kira has higher mafia equity then diff when you take a step back

NoNK · 2019-10-20 15:21:54

NoNK wrote:

I realize I'm probably just doing this for "I told you so" points and we are probably going to have to mislynch today in order to hit mafia but still like come on man, I call out what I see

!vote Different55

If kira gets momentum I'll go there but currently just trying to not lynch norwegian sigh

NoNK · 2019-10-20 16:18:36

!vote KIRA

I don't think diff is mafia, and I don't think norboy is mafia. Kira is scum, jawapa is potentially a partner. Kira knows better then to accuse 3 people voting on someone of being the full scumteam. Burden of proficiency, his reads are hilariously surface level.

Different55 wrote:

@Norboy I'm not confident y'all aren't backing down having bitten off more than you could chew. You have no answers for any of the questions sent your way.

No offense, but have you noticed I've been mostly avoiding back and forth discussions this game, and just posting my thoughts when I find it useful? Arguing back and forth with someone you scumread doesn't actually help you catch mafia. It just solidifies in your mind that the other person is mafia, and vice versa.

Take a step back and look at the gamestate as a whole. The goal of mafia isn't to win the most internet fights, the goal is to lynch the scum.

NoNK · 2019-10-20 16:24:10

@Different55

I guarantee you that mafia is banking on a town imploding as their strategy to win this game, and I say that is for a few reasons:

1. Crybaby got nightkilled. Crybaby had zero game content in his ISO.
2. The people who I scumread (Kira, Jawapa, Shadowsedge) are sitting back and remaining largely background characters or totally uninvolved (shadowsedge) in the main conflict of the day, or casually sitting back and adding fuel to the fire (Kira).
3. Kira is going absolutely BONKERS at the fact that Norwegianboy and I are working together to try to solve this game. Town working together wins games. The fact that he calls out Norwegain / NoNK / Daneeko as scum because we are all on the same wagon should be very indicative of where his motivations lie: fuel the fire of the town conflict, prevent anyone from working together. Scum thrive in chaos.

Norwee, Slabdrill, TaskManager, Onjit

NoNK · 2019-10-20 17:10:57

Different55 wrote:

To expand on what I said earlier, I'm okay lynching Kira because I don't think you guys can talk your way out of it if he flips green. If we lynch you and you flip green then there's a large base of suspicious actions that anyone can dig into to to justify their actions. It's more dangerous for you to be wrong about Kira than anything else, which is why even though I find you painfully suspicious with no justification for being so, I will accept a Kira lynch since flipping green basically guarantees you're scum imo.

No, I don't accept those terms. To say that I, as town, need to have perfect knowledge of people's alignments in order to be proven town is completely backwards. What are you smoking?

NoNK · 2019-10-20 17:12:56

I would rather just lynch norwegianboy and have him flip green so then I can get my actual scumreads lynched tomorrow, if this is the moonlogic we're playing with now.

Because if and when norwegianboy flips green, there's no way Kira/Jawapa can talk himself out of supporting that lynch, and now he's the bad guy.

NoNK · 2019-10-20 17:14:23

You see why this logic doesn't work, or do you just want all the active people to kill themselves one after another while the inactives get nightkilled?

NoNK · 2019-10-20 17:20:01

Yes, diff, I will openly admit that I have largely been disregarding the argument for norwegian and I've been holding onto a townread on him.

I might be getting pocketed and I guess it's worth considering. I'll give it a read for good faith. If you have a summary of the hole that norwegian is in I'm down to hear it, but I'll also be rereading this day myself.

NoNK · 2019-10-20 17:37:03

@mrjawapa, kira, different55

Trying to re-read this day and pick out exactly what is being argued is legit making my eyes bleed and I feel like I'm just going to hilariously misinterpret everything.

For the sake of absolute clarity, could I get a tl;dr of the points against norwegianboy, explained like I just joined this game?

mrjawapa

NoNK · 2019-10-20 17:42:12

It doesn't need to be just one person who does that btw, if all 3 of you post your thoughts that would be fantastico so we can compare notes and try to get this spaghetti game on the same page to some degree

NoNK · 2019-10-20 19:11:48

Day 1: 13p
Day 2: 11p
Day 3: 9p
Day 4: 7p

Slabdrill

NoNK · 2019-10-20 19:24:09

@Kira

I think you have a point somewhere, I'm trying to get to the bottom of it.

Yes there are assosciations between NoNK-Norboy-Daneeko

Do you actually think that's the full scumteam? Because that feels like a really shallow read and I think I'm misinterpreting you

NoNK · 2019-10-20 19:34:02

!vote Daneeko

Not interested in voting kira atm

NoNK · 2019-10-20 19:38:29

Ever since I stopped arguing and throwing insults, I'm leaning towards most of the people who have been arguing today being town, that includes kira.

Kira suggesting a compromise lynch on daneeko that actually makes sense, might flip red, and gives town information is basically the opposite of sitting back and fueling the fire like I would expect scum to be doing here

Could you imagine how stacked this game would be if the entire block of [Diff, NoNK, Norwegian, Kira, Jawapa] was all town? Yeah statistically that's not the case, but like *imagine*

Kira

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#26 2019-10-19 00:05:40

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#27 2019-10-19 01:22:37

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#28 2019-10-19 15:19:57

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#29 2019-10-19 17:16:58

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#30 2019-10-19 17:44:36

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

!vote DIFFERENT55

#31 2019-10-19 17:45:41

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#32 2019-10-19 19:32:30

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#33 2019-10-19 20:17:35

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#34 2019-10-19 20:25:23

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#35 2019-10-20 14:59:16

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

!vote KIRA

#36 2019-10-20 15:00:16

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#37 2019-10-20 15:18:36

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#38 2019-10-20 15:21:54

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

!vote Different55

#39 2019-10-20 16:18:36

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

!vote KIRA

#40 2019-10-20 16:24:10

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#41 2019-10-20 17:10:57

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#42 2019-10-20 17:12:56

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#43 2019-10-20 17:14:23

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#44 2019-10-20 17:20:01

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#45 2019-10-20 17:37:03

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#46 2019-10-20 17:42:12

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#47 2019-10-20 19:11:48

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#48 2019-10-20 19:24:09

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

#49 2019-10-20 19:34:02

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

!vote Daneeko

#50 2019-10-20 19:38:29

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

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