Mafia 13 game [TOWN WINS!]

mutantdevle · 2017-08-11 23:04:17

jkdrip wrote:

I'd like to direct everyone's attention to the last sentence on Anatoly's role card, especially if you're unsure about voting JaWa:
You will win once Mafia gains majority in the Town population or eliminates the Town.
And, a quote from page 7 jawa:
MrJaWapa wrote:
Are we going to do something? We need to find the mafia. They must be eliminated.
I'll let the lot of you do the math.
I know I'm still talking about role cards, but it's how Jawa supposedly got cleared earlier. I feel this unavoidable.

Agreed. It's now confirmed that the word eliminate is on both types of role card so any defence formed from knowing the word is invalid.

Gosha wrote:

don't tell me that we won't be lynching anybody today too
meh

And no, hopefully we will lynch jawapa today as we can learn the most information from his death.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-11 23:27:08

Oh wow Luka you're putting effort in now? That's good I guess.

And I look forward to your points on jkdrip because I used to have that mentality. I just don't see him as scum anymore though since he brought up how we could lynch jawapa to gain the optimum amount of information.

Luka504

mutantdevle · 2017-08-11 23:48:32

Jawapa is now on L-1. One more vote and they will be lynched.

Previously I would have unvoted by now but based on what Hummerz said earlier about people potentially cooling down I am now reluctant to do so.

We have only used about a 3rd of our time though so is it really worth lynching yet?

Also Jawapa if you have anything to say that you think will help the town after you die then you'd better say it now.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-11 23:57:43

Yes. I pushed your lynched just like you pushed a lynch against me. If you are genuinely town then I am sorry about this but there is so much we can learn by having your death confirmed.

The main thing is that if you are town then it means the role block was not what prevented the kill. Instead the next most likely case would be Luka protecting me. So ironically, if you are town then your death creates a sort of paradox in that Luka becomes likely to be a doctor and thus my name is cleared because of my aggressive defence of him. But at the same time I would have just pushed for a Townie to be lynched which would raise suspicion on me. The simple soloution to that sort of paradox would simply be that I was wrong about you being Mafia.

But whether I am wrong or right and you are scum or town, the amount of information we will learn from this is valuable. You being scum would simply be a bonus to the information we learn. I'm sure you can see that.

So yeah, I do apologise if I have got this wrong and you do have the town's interests at heart but to be honest you became an information valuable lynch from the moment AlphaJon role blocked you and the night ended without a death.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 00:10:40

MrJaWapa wrote:

I'm not even pushing for alphajon to be lynched

No one really said you were... it's just that AlphaJon gave us a valid reason to lynch you based on the evidence we had and things just escalated from there.

MrJaWapa wrote:

Or we could lynch you or luka who have ties to Anatoly.

If we lynch me what do we learn? What you will actually learn is nothing, but what you think we will learn is that I am connected to Anatoly.
If we lynch Luka we'd learn that we just lost our doctor and that I was right to defend him, but you think we'd learn he lied and I am potentially connected.

If we lynch you what I think we'd learn is that AlphaJon is a role blocker and his role block of you prevented the night kill meaning, you're attacks on me and Luka were scum motivated which would clear our names. But what you are saying we will learn is that Luka's heal of me is what prevented the night kill which would potentially also clear both our names.

Do you not see how the information we WILL learn from lynching you, no matter what your role is, is far greater than the information we would learn from lynching anyone else.

Also I can't tell if your short replies are symbolic of your loss of fight and hope or your fear that you could be lynched any moment now.

Also jkdrip I do agree that more people should probably have a say in the matter but the people we are waiting for aren't exactly the most active anyway. I don't want to unvote because I don't want to defuse the tension and the seriousness of this push. The key here is knowledge and we'd gain the most from a lynch on jawapa as opposed to anyone else.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 00:11:53

It's midnight for me so I'm going to go to sleep. It will be interesting to see what I wake up to.

(I may still comment from my phone during the night if I am still awake).

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 00:55:06

Oh btw I'd just like to add a little note / advice for the cop like role:

If jawapa flips scum, investigate diff.
If jawapa flips town and you haven't investigated me or Luka, investigate me.
If jawapa flips town and you have already investigated me or Luka (and are confident we are the same alignment) then investigate whoever you think is most scum.

Of course it's your role and your choice; I'm just stating what I think would be good to increase our chances of getting a mafioso tomorrow.

Oh and Luka don't protect me again, protect AlphaJon. <3

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 09:38:51

MrJaWapa wrote:

I found a member of mafia, and have two leads for the others, why am I being looked at as scum?

You don't exactly have leads, they are hypothosies. And personally I started considering you scum from the moment you started trying to push against me, which for the record was D1 not D2. My guess that you were scum was backed up by AlphaJon stating he role blocked you. From that moment on you become not only a scum target (just to me and a few others) but a source of information. I don't think everyone on your wagon thinks you are scum but I still don't get how you don't see that your own death would be the most valuble one.

MrJaWapa wrote:

Devlin wrote:
we will learn is that Luka's heal of me is what prevented the night kill
There's no way to confirm that.

The chances of this being what happened will dramatically increase. Personally I like to believe the most likely story as it is the one with the most evidence and plausabilty. All the other scenerios you mentioned are dramtically more unlikely than this one.

MrJaWapa wrote:

Devlin wrote:
f we lynch me what do we learn?
It's not a matter of learning anything. It's that you're connected to Anatoly.

I'm not really that connected to anatoly though am I? Anatoly defended Luka slightly, I defended Luka a lot. That is literally the only connection. Furthermore, if you lynch me and find I am town, you will have no information to go on the next day. At least with lynching you, even if you flip town, we will at least get a little knowledge as compensation.

MrJaWapa wrote:

Processor, where is your insight. It's been several hours.

^^ @Processor I get that your probably staying quite for a good reason but it would be nice if you could at least give a scum read of everyone and not just chip in randomly with reads that you don't even support with a reason why.

MrJaWapa wrote:

Plz devlin I can see through your lies.

I have not lied once during this game. At the very most I have reached the wrong conclusion but not once have I lied. I'm not so sure I could say the same for you though :/

MrJaWapa wrote:

At this point, I'm really annoyed. Any other time, this quote would have been a huge red flag, and would have led to a lynch:
"Sorry Devlin but I cant be bothered. I consider you and Anatoly town and everyone else is a scum." - Luka

Can you not see this is just hime being salty that he was chosen by a RNG. He is clearly being hyperbolic when states that everyone else is scum because that would be impossible. Myself and anatolyee were the only ones who were really defending him from the BS of a RNG. I don't really see why anatoly would defend someone from the RNG as Mafia though, he clearly wasn't up to the role.

MrJaWapa wrote:

It's like everyone is overlooking that. Several people are just assuming Luka isn't lying, about being the doctor, like this game isn't all about deceiving others.

How do we know AlphaJon isn't lying? How do we know you're not lying? How do we know anyone isn't lying? Personally I choose to believe what is most plausible and since there have been no counter claims I consider it almost certain that those 2 are the roles they say they are. You can't just deny the possiblity that someone is a role because you were previously against them. Otherwise I'd still be suspicious of AlphaJon.

MrJaWapa wrote:

Anatoly being confirmed as mafia backed my claim. It's insane that so many people are following Devlin's crap, "we'll learn the most by lynching JaWapa." No, you won't. The only thing you could possibly learn is that AlphaJon is actually the RB, and that's ONLY if I was mafia. Since I'm town, they're not going to learn if AlphaJon is lying, if Luka is lying, or if mafia just didn't do anything.

You being scum will not prove AlphaJon being role blocker any more than you being town will prove Luka is the doctor. If you do flip scum how do we know AlphaJon didn't lie about role blocking you and you were just sacraficed as a teammate to make him look like town? Escpeically if he was the godfather because that way he'd be 100% believed and there'd be no way to detect that he was mafia. And if you do flip town then it would mean that Luka's alleged protection of me would be the MOST LIKELY cause of there being no night kill. That is something to go on if you ask me.

MrJaWapa wrote:

Devlin said mafia not doing anything is very unlikely. That's not at all unlikely. That's something that has happened MANY times.

How the hell is it not unlikely? You are basically suggesting that the Mafia is inactive. With anatoly gone that leaves 2 other people who would have had to of been absent for there to be no kill. In case you havn't noticed I am very active so I would not have missed the kill option. Gosha would fit the description of inactivity perfectly since he was forced to be inactive. But out of everyone else do you really think anyone here is inactive enough to not perform a kill?

Unless you are suggesting that no kill was performed on purpose to make it look like whoever was role blocked is Mafia like you mentioned earlier? That is a ridiculous claim. Basically you are saying the Mafia gave up the chance to get a guaranteed kill on a person of their choice to have just a chance at getting a kill on a random person, which also could have been a member of the Mafia. Do you not see how tactically stupid that would be?

MrJaWapa wrote:

Since I've made such a fuss with Devlin, and I'm pushing so hard to get them lynched, I'll probably be killed tonight. That should be a red flag to the town.

Red is my favourite colour so go ahead and wave that flag and die.

Different55 wrote:

Devlin wrote:
If jawapa flips scum, investigate diff.
For the love of all that is holy do not. I am townie. Totally unconfirmed but I am townie anyway. We need to find maf and looking at me will just waste a day. Unless you think confirming me being town would do some good.

Confirming you and town would be good for me because it would mean that you are not connected with Jawapa. If jawapa does flip scum then you will be the next most suspicious person to me due to your similarities and consistent agreement with him. However, unlike MrWapa, I'm not going to assume that I am correct about my theory on you just because part of it is right. I'm still willing to give you a chance and the easiest way to do that is to have your role checked by a reliable source. Of course, the cop may not release this information which means the likely scenario tommorow (if jawapa flips scum) is that I'm probably going to be heavily accusing you. So I apologise for that in advance.

Different55 wrote:

I guess it's a little odd that Devlin was so against RNG D1 but looking at everyone else I have no idea at all.

If you look at previous games you will see I have always been against the idea of a RNG vote. This is not something new to me. It's just that this time people were taking the RNG prospect seriously and as a result I responded more seriously than simply saying 'I think that's a bad idea' like I did previously.

Evilbunny wrote:

Jawapa was right about Anatoly, why is he a suspect?

Just because he got one thing right doesn't mean everything he says is true. I'm right about you being town am I not? That doesn't make you believe eveything I say though. Also you forget that if jawapa is mafia then he would know that anatoly was scum also. Anatoly doesn't sound like he was the most cooprative tema mate and as a reuslt he would have been a tactical sacrafice to expose.

Slabdrill wrote:

@alphajon: the reason im not saying much is because i just dont have much to say.

Find something to say then. Analyse people. At the very least give your scum reads.

Finally I'd just like to say I think we can all agree that Maxi is town right? I mean if a confirmed Mafia is trying to lynch someone so agressivly then surely that lynch target is town?

Luka504

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 18:01:34

Okay I'd just like to start by saying @Luka, why are you being an idiot and attacking jkdrip here? Jkdrip was actually steering the lynch wagon away from you and directing it more towards jawapa and you decide to call him out for being suspicious? eh, what?

First of all your points about him not having any opinions of his own is just wrong. He pretty much started the idea of the lynch against me. Even if he was not the one who first voted for me, he was the one that put forth the idea of voting for me and essentially started that wagon. If that isn't his own idea then I don't know what is. Next he jogged our brains to realise that lynching jawapa would be good for information gain. I may have heavily expanded that idea but he was the one that first thought of it and prompted it. Finally, you criticised him for not saying a "hmm, maybe we shouldn't do this" type message and then criticised him when he said we should wait before lynching jawapa... You can't make an exception to something you criticise him for just because it's directed towards someone you don't like.

MrJaWapa wrote:

Devlin wrote:
All the other scenerios you mentioned are dramtically more unlikely than this one.
Not killing isn't unlikely, why do you keep saying that?

Because it is unlikely. The chances of all 3 Mafia being inactive or dumb enough to decide not to kill is just incredibly low probability wise. There is no tactical gain to not killing.

MrJaWapa wrote:

Devlin wrote:
I'm not really that connected to anatoly though am I?
Luka saying you and anatoly are town, everyone else is scum. That's suspicious as ****.

You keep taking that out of context. He clearly said that during his little tantrum that he was picked to be killed by a RNG. As a result he was being hyperbolic.

MrJaWapa wrote:

Devlin wrote:
You being scum will not prove AlphaJon being role blocker any more than you being town will prove Luka is the doctor. If you do flip scum how do we know AlphaJon didn't lie about role blocking you and you were just sacraficed as a teammate to make him look like town?
Right, so we're not going to learn ****!

You seem to consider that we only 'learn' things when there is 100% proof of it with no other options. If that's what you consider as us learning then the only thing we can every learn is someone's role when they die and have it read out by the game moderator. Well what I consider us able to learn is much more lenient than 100% probability as the clues given based on the information we have been told can allow us to discover and learn other things.

MrJaWapa wrote:

Devlin wrote:
With anatoly gone that leaves 2 other people who would have had to of been absent for there to be no kill. In case you havn't noticed I am very active so I would not have missed the kill option.
Inactivity is not the only reason a kill would not have been made.

There are only 5 reasons there could have been no kill:

The role block was succesfull - which you disagree with because it would mean you are Mafia.
Mafia targeted me and Luka saved me - which you disagree with because it would confirm both me and Luka to be the roles we say we are making you wrong.
A protective role saved someone - no one has claimed any other protective role so we will not know if this is a possiblity until they do.
All 3 Mafia were inactive - which you have just said isn't what happened.
All 3 Mafia decided not to kill - there is no advantage to the Mafia not performing a kill. No Mafia of basic inteligence would agree to do this.

So which is it? Your death will narrow down the options. Out of which tbh there is only 2.

AlphaJon wrote:

Lynching you will allow us to move on, along will the information that will come with your lynching.

MrJaWapa wrote:

What information?

How many times do I have to tell you? You can't just ignore what's there. If you really don't know then pay special attention to my point below.

MrJaWapa wrote:

What progress is going to be made by me being lynched?

1. We will have a better understanding of what caused the no kill on N1.
2. We will be able to better confirm what roles some people are.
3. We will not longer have to debate whether you are or are not Mafia since we would know. This is an issue that the town is fairly divided on.

Evilbunny wrote:

Evilbunny wrote:
Jawapa came up with a theory about anatoly and friends when there was no pressure on him. Anatoly turns out to be mafia. Now if you are voting to kill jawapa, ask yourself why he would do that, throw his team under the bus out of nowhere. He wouldn't.
@devlin respond to this

I already did. But I will say it again to save you the trouble of having to re-read:

It is possible that jawapa (or rather the Mafia) knew whatever drama was going on with anatoly. As a result they may have known that he was likely to be mod killed. Anatoly doesn't sound like he was someone who'd be willing to co-operate with the rest of the Mafia and as a result may have caused argument and problems in the Mafia chat. Anatoly is basically scum towards the Mafia. This means it would be a tactical move to be against anatoly so that they looked innocent when he was mod killed.

If you would like me to explain that better then feel free to ask (I feel like I poorly worded that).

Onjit wrote:

Honestly, I think that Luka is innocent, and that Jawapa is playing us for fools.
Either way, I'm not going to lynch our doctor.

Exactly. This basically sums up my thoughts.

jkdrip wrote:

I feel that JaWa's conspiracy theory is getting more and more viable.

Is your reason for that Luka's attack on you? If not then please explain. Personally I don't see that as further evidence to jawapas claim but okay.

MrJaWapa wrote:

If it adds weight to my claim, lynch me and see I'm town

Actually lynching you will, for the most part, disprove your claim either way. But yeah I do agree, we should lynch you. Even if you do flip town, your death will benifit the town.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 18:23:12

MrJaWapa wrote:

Devlin wrote:
disprove your claim either
How so

I'll explain after you've been lynched if I need to. It's too much effort to write it out now because I don't need to defend myself right now.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 19:00:27

The information I am withholding I am doing so because it isn't relevant. The information is basically why you shouldn't lynch me if jawapa is town. We don't know what jawapa's role is yet, and no one is currently trying to lynch me (the votes are between jawapa and luka). Hence the information is not relevant. And diff your inability to even see where we are coming from in our push against jawapa is what makes you so suspicious to me.

Here's why I personally am wanting a lynch on jawapa, I have ordered it from least important to most important:

1. We share the "It's them or me attitude" towards each other. Jawapa has it in for me and luka so naturally I have it in for him. The easiest way to get him off my back is to have him dead.
2. His unwillingness to accept Luka as a doctor is also suspicious to me. Sure a few people have doubts about Luka but he seems to think that if we don't have 100% confirmation then he automatically isn't.
3. AlphaJon role blocked him last night and there was no kill. Many people agree that this makes jawapa a suspect.
4. Jawapa thinks the reason there was no night kill was because the Mafia chose not to. He obviously doesn't believe Luka's doctor story, he denies AlphaJon's role block was the reason and he's stated he doesn't think it was inactivity. The Mafia gain no advantage from not killing which makes it look like he only wants us to believe this so he doesn't look suspicious, which ironically makes him look suspicious.
5. Out of everyone we could possibly lynch right now, lynching jawapa will give us the most information. The information that we will gain from his death, regardless of his role, has been stated so many times... There are at least 3 players, myself included, that accept that to be a valid reason to lynch him even if he is town. If you are seriously saying that this information means nothing or that it simply doesn't exist, in my opinion, that makes you either delusional or scum.

So regardless of what jawapa flips, he is our best option for making progress in the game. That's why people want to lynch him.

Slabdrill

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 19:28:59

jkdrip wrote:

When Anatoly was confirmed Maf, that supported Jawa's theory. Every time Luka gets more suspicious, it ties into the theory. Nothing more or less, it's just convenient that the events that have transpired have tied into this so well.

But do you think I am town? If you do then that completely eliminates the theory. The only way his theory would have any ground is if I am scum also, which I assure you I am not. Lynching Luka would be a mistake right now, if we lynch Luka then we also lose AlphaJon. The Mafia are sure to go after AlphaJon now that they know he is the role blocker. As far as we know, Luka is the only one that can stop that happening. If Luka get's lynched then the Mafia will be comfortable in eliminated AlphaJon. However, if Luka survives the lynch then he will be able to protect AlphaJon, not only because oh his night ability but because the Mafia are likely to kill Luka so he cannot protect anyone in the future.

Whatever happens, Luka is not going to survive the night. If Luka does survive the night then I do agree it would be suspicious and I would start looking into him myself for a possible lynch on D3. But we need to keep Luka alive because he is the only way the town will have any power in protecting our role blocker that we know of.

AlphaJon, as an exposed role blocker, is arguably the most valuable player we have right now. We need to protect him and keep him alive. Jawapa is our safest option for the lynch to keep AlphaJon alive. If we lynched Luka and he turns out to be the doctor then we will also lose our role blocker in the same night. Do you really want to lose 2 power roles with 1 bad mistake?

But if we lynch Luka and find he is indeed Mafia, then that would mean we still probably have a hidden protective role who is sure to protect AlphaJon. So basically, if Luka is Mafia and we do not lynch him, AlphaJon will probably survive anyway.

If you agree with me that AlphaJon should be kept alive and as a result we should lynch with his fate in consideration, think of it like this:

If both Jawapa and Luka are town and doctor and we lynch Luka: Then AlphaJon is almost guaranteed to die.
If Jawapa is scum and Luka is the doctor and we lynch Luka: Then AlphaJon is almost guaranteed to die.
If Jawapa is town and Luka is scum and we lynch Luka: There is still a chance AlphaJon could be saved by a real protective role.

If both Jawapa and Luka are town and doctor and we lynch Jawapa: Then AlphaJon is almost guaranteed to live.
If Jawapa is town and Luka is scum and we lynch Jawapa: There is still a chance AlphaJon could be saved by a real protective role.
If Jawapa is scum and Luka is the doctor and we lynch Jawapa: Then AlphaJon is almost guaranteed to live.

As you can see, in all 6 situations we have a better chance of AlphaJon, aka the role blocker aka our current known most valuable player, seeing the light of the next day and potentially prevent night kills. This isn't just about if we should lynch Jawapa or Luka anymore, we have to consider how badly the town as a whole would be damaged from their lynches. And I consider there more to be lost from voting Luka than there is from voting Jawapa.

MrJaWapa wrote:

Devlin wrote:
We don't know what jawapa's role is yet,
Vanilla town... said it many times
Devlin wrote:
Jawapa thinks the reason there was no night kill was because the Mafia chose not to.
Never said that's what I thought. I said that was a possibility.
Devlin wrote:
he denies AlphaJon's role block was the reason
Because I'm vanilla town
Devlin wrote:
The information that we will gain from his death,
Literally the only thing you will learn is that I'm town. Everything else is still speculation.

I've stated I am town many times, but you don't believe me do you? You going to have to think of a better defence than that.

jkdrip wrote:

but don't be surprised if I continue to switch between the 2.

Not to add any pressure but Jawapa is at L-1 again is he not? (or L-2 I lost track). So if you do change your mind back to jawapa you're going to have to strongly consider it; though feel free to change your mind but not your vote

The TLDR of this post is basically AlphaJon has more chance of surviving if we lynch jawapa. And I'd argue that AlphaJon is currently worth more than Jawapa based on his (alleged) role.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 19:30:06

^^ especially since, from my understanding, Proc is in more support of me than him.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 19:37:01

Oh okay. Just out of interest did you change your vote because you genuinely think he is Mafia or because you think his lynch is the most tactical option?

Personally I am not 100% convinced that Jawapa is indeed Mafia (based on what he's said and also how I have a tendency to doubt myself easily), but it is the most tactical for the town.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 19:58:44

MrJaWapa wrote:

I think you're full of ****

I'm full of **** for pointing out that AlphaJon is more likely to live if you are lynch instead of Luka? Surely having the role blocker survive instead of a normal townie is a good thing? Jawapa, if you are town, you will not die in vein; why can't you see that?

And also I want proc's input too, but probably not for the same reasons you do.

jkdrip wrote:

Tell ya what, though. If you turn out town, it'll be all the more reason to believe your conspiracy theory.

I already have a defence prepared for that as I mentioned earlier. I'm hoping I won't have to say it though.

Different55 wrote:

Devlin wrote:
And diff your inability to even see where we are coming from in our push against jawapa is what makes you so suspicious to me.
Had a busy day yesterday, apparently wasn't keeping up as well as I thought. I'm seeing a lot of push against JaWapa with no actual clear reasoning which worries me. Even when asked nobody's really got anything. JaWapa quoting his rolecard is scummy but he's basically confirmed town because of it. Maf card does not match and him just guessing and getting lucky is hardly believable.

Fair enough about not being able to keep up. If you want to see why people are voting against him then just isolate my posts. But to sum up here are the main 3 reasons:

1. Jawapa has been acting kinda scummy (you even agree with that on the role card situation).
2. There is more information to be gained from lynching Jawapa than there is lynching Luka.
3. Lynching Jawapa instead of Luka increases the chances AlphaJon will survive the night and continue to be able to role block.

If you don't consider, at the very least, the 3rd point being a good reason to lynch Jawapa and not Luka then you should probably stopped asking why people are lynching Jawapa because you will probably never understand why. No one is forcing you to hammer him even if you agree with any of those points though.

Btw these are the people who haven't voted yet:

Proc, diff and AlphaJon.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 20:00:12

I really need to spend more time proof reading my messages :/

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 20:03:10

Devlin wrote:

AlphaJon, as an exposed role blocker, is arguably the most valuable player we have right now. We need to protect him and keep him alive. Jawapa is our safest option for the lynch to keep AlphaJon alive. If we lynched Luka and he turns out to be the doctor then we will also lose our role blocker in the same night. Do you really want to lose 2 power roles with 1 bad mistake?
But if we lynch Luka and find he is indeed Mafia, then that would mean we still probably have a hidden protective role who is sure to protect AlphaJon. So basically, if Luka is Mafia and we do not lynch him, AlphaJon will probably survive anyway.

If you agree with me that AlphaJon should be kept alive and as a result we should lynch with his fate in consideration, think of it like this:
If both Jawapa and Luka are town and doctor and we lynch Luka: Then AlphaJon is almost guaranteed to die.
If Jawapa is scum and Luka is the doctor and we lynch Luka: Then AlphaJon is almost guaranteed to die.
If Jawapa is town and Luka is scum and we lynch Luka: There is still a chance AlphaJon could be saved by a real protective role.
If both Jawapa and Luka are town and doctor and we lynch Jawapa: Then AlphaJon is almost guaranteed to live.
If Jawapa is town and Luka is scum and we lynch Jawapa: There is still a chance AlphaJon could be saved by a real protective role.
If Jawapa is scum and Luka is the doctor and we lynch Jawapa: Then AlphaJon is almost guaranteed to live.
As you can see, in all 6 situations we have a better chance of AlphaJon, aka the role blocker aka our current known most valuable player, seeing the light of the next day and potentially prevent night kills. This isn't just about if we should lynch Jawapa or Luka anymore, we have to consider how badly the town as a whole would be damaged from their lynches. And I consider there more to be lost from voting Luka than there is from voting Jawapa.

I posted that earlier ^^

If you don't have time to scroll back and read everything then that is basically the main part of the argument for point 3.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 20:17:28

MrJaWapa wrote:

My lynch has nothing to do with alpha living or not. Mafia doesn't give a **** who's lynched in the day.

But they do care who they shoot. They are almost guaranteed to shoot AlphaJon for claiming role blocker.

I have proven why, no matter what your's or Luka's roles are, even considering everyone is wrong and you are both who you say you are, AlphaJon has a statistically higher chance of surviving if you are lynched instead of Luka.

Technically it doesn't actually have to be you that's lynched. Anyone can be lynched as long as it isn't Luka (or AlphaJon obviously) to maximise the chance AlphaJon lives until the next day.

Also @Evilbunny what do you think of the whole lynch Jawapa instead of Luka to save AlphaJon fiasco?

As a sidenote to Evilbunny, you are the single person that makes me doubt my scum reads on Jawapa. You speak with logical sense which is why I have taken into consideration that Jawapa may indeed by town. But ultimately, I think Jawapa is a better option than Luka.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 20:19:14

MrJaWapa wrote:

They're not going to see me lynch in the day and then go "oh I guess we can't kill the roleblocker..."
No! They're gonna snipe his ****.

Only if there are no protective roles which you have clearly assumed.

You forget that there is at least a CHANCE that Luka is a doctor.

And if he isn't then there is still at least a CHANCE that someone is a protective role.

So there are still 2 chances that AlphaJon will live if you flip town.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 20:30:56

They may target someone else but that way they are less likely to kill a power role that way. If the Mafia are smart enough they will kill Luka to eliminate the doctor, but Luka should protect AlphaJon anyway in case they think it's a bluff that Luka will protect AlphaJon.

These are the options I think the Mafia have to night if jawapa is lynched:

Do what I predict and shoot Luka to eliminate the doctor for a guaranteed kill on them.
Assume Luka chooses not to protect AlphaJon and shoot AlphaJon (and risk have a 2nd no kill).
Choose someone else to shoot at random to make Luka's look more suspicious for tomorrow and risk not killing a power role.

Of course if it turns out Luka is actually scum then there is still that chance there is a protective role to save AlphaJon anyway.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 20:33:07

MrJaWapa wrote:

Devlin wrote:
Only if there are no protective roles which you have clearly assumed.
Nope. Just don't believe there's a doctor.
And no. Alpha is getting **** up one of these nights.

Well of course. Even if Luka is the doctor, once he is dead he can't do any more protecting can? But surely just because he is bound to die some when it doesn't mean we just let him die? We may as well delay his death because that way he can still help us by role blocking more people. And with you dead he doesn't have to waste another role block on you to try and confirm if there is no night kill again because of it.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 20:38:34

MrJaWapa wrote:

Devlin wrote:
Only if there are no protective roles which you have clearly assumed.
Nope. Just don't believe there's a doctor.

The fact that there could be another protective role is what makes AlphaJon's chances of survival greater by lynching you.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 20:44:11

MrJaWapa wrote:

Devlin wrote:
They may target someone else but that way they are less likely to kill a power role that way. If the Mafia are smart enough they will kill Luka to eliminate the doctor, but Luka should protect AlphaJon anyway in case they think it's a bluff that Luka will protect AlphaJon.
These are the options I think the Mafia have to night if jawapa is lynched:
Do what I predict and shoot Luka to eliminate the doctor for a guaranteed kill on them.
Assume Luka chooses not to protect AlphaJon and shoot AlphaJon (and risk have a 2nd no kill).
Choose someone else to shoot at random to make Luka's look more suspicious for tomorrow and risk not killing a power role.
Of course if it turns out Luka is actually scum then there is still that chance there is a protective role to save AlphaJon anyway.
Why are none of those possible if I'm not lynched

They would be possible on the same level if it was someone else other than Luka.

But if it was Luka that was lynched, AlphaJon would almost definitely die if Luka was doctor and if Luka was Mafia he may still die unless there is an actual protective role to protect him.

But since this vote is mostly out of you and Luka, you are the better option.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 20:47:26

@Evilbunny. Slabdrill will be an idea I'd be open to if Jawapa flips town. But you forgot that me and jawapa are literally at each other's throat with a rope, that situation won't magically go away. People are still going to be accusing Luka and people are still going to be accusing Jawapa unless something is resolved today.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-12 20:50:32

Evilbunny wrote:

Devlin wrote:
@Evilbunny. Slabdrill will be an idea I'd be open to if Jawapa flips town. But you forgot that me and jawapa are literally at each other's throat with a rope, that situation won't magically go away. People are still going to be accusing Luka and people are still going to be accusing Jawapa unless something is resolved today.
I think it is possible to still not like each other and let the rest of the town discuss lynching Slabdrill.
Jawapa would you be willing to not push on Luka today so we can talk about slabdrill (or someone else).

Good luck convincing Luka to back down on jawapa though.

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