Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 01:26:57

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

Nuclear Gandhi wrote:
MM what you got against ShadowEdge?
Nothing. I was only mentioning that BuzzerBee is far from being particularly inactive, since Elijah said he did not buy that he was busy (which naturally leads to the conclusion that he scumreads him for inactivity).
2b55b5g wrote:
nothing is happening, so i went back and backread some pages, and honestly i haven't got a single clue on how to scumread anyone due to my confusion on this day (and partly also because im overwhelmed, like im not new to mafia but i rarely play serious mafia games or setups where a majority of people are VTs)
so what im do instead is vote someone and see what happens
i dont feel comfortable voting BB cuz that vote from Gandhi is still really weird to me, and i do believe that BB is busy. i can vote Gandhi but i'd rather wait for an explanation for now since he seemed pretty towny to me on day 1.
however i'll vote Marshmallow for now, mainly because im a sheep (and also due to impulse because i want something to happen lol). several people have suspicion on him recently (Lumi, Elijah, Minimania), and while im still not entirely convinced since i really doubt a mafia would vote an anti-town role early in the game, i think the reasons for suspecting MM are fair. i also want to see his reaction to being voted, if theres any
!vote Marshmallow Marshall
ElijahBaley wrote:
GET BUZZER BEE AND THEN MARSHMALLOW MARSHALL.
is there a reason for getting them in this order btw?
The reasons to suspect me are fair? Okay then, answer this:
What are the reasons to suspect me? Because even I have a hard time seeing them xD. What makes you not just a massive sheep hopping on a mislynch here?

I did not scum read him for inactivity. I scum read him for saying he's busy. That is not the same thing. what I am saying here falls short of what I mean, if I was to be more precise, one of his posts gave me a feeling of fear and kinda just... laying low without being inactive? gives some quick reads, apologises saying he doesn't have time, leaves, promises to come back. tell me that doesn't sound scummy

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 01:35:10

Minimania wrote:

I just had an idea. I don't remember exactly which Vsauce video it is but in one of them, he described an interesting phenomenon that could apply here, maybe. A study was conducted where a jar of jelly beans was shown to a large group of people, and that group of people was asked to levy a guess as to how many jelly beans was in the jar. So many guesses were made and nobody individually got the correct answer, but averaging people's guesses provided the correct answer. This study concluded that putting everyone's answers together made everyone "smarter" (I think that's how Vsauce put it)
I think, maybe if everyone provided a hierarchy of players from most suspicious to least suspicious, we could come up with a potentially reliable gamesolve. There's a... uh, I forgot what kind of voting system this is, but it's fairly democratic in that if the person you want elected isn't voted, your next highest vote could still have a chance. I forgot what it's called, LukeM showed it to us a few years ago in 3rd Party. I'll go digging for it brb

Condorcet

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 09:21:46

Why am I being voted?

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 09:28:35

Can the people voting me tell me why they're voting me, and I'll try to dispel their notions.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 09:36:46

ShadowsEdge wrote:

Alright I'm cool with this plan, if not just for getting a collective idea of the elim, it also forces people to think more about their reads in a more coherent manner (since I'm still very confused about some of the reads right now)
Also just for ease of use, I'm spoilering reasons, just so that my order can be seen clearly.
▼ Onjit
Pretty Meta-gamey, but iirc, Onjit has a tendency to be inactive as town, afaik he's usually more active as an evil one because of interest and two because I think he doesn't like to make his teammate do all the work.
▼ Pqwerty
Looking through Pqwerty's iso, a lot of his actions clearly have the intent of trying to solve the game, my *only* hesitancy with his slot is from past experience, knowing that he can drum up a plan to make himself appear town-like.
▼ Marshmallow Marshall
Gonna preface this off and say I literally do not understand Mafia terminology so when MM starts talking about OMGUS'ing my brain does not comprehend any of that, so my read on this could be inaccurate.
They seem interested in pushing for information, such as pushing Elijah to explain their reads on Mini, or pushing people to explain their reads on me.
▼ Nuclear Gandhi
My town-read on them was stronger before, and that was mostly because I was just skimming the thread and their response to things gave me a good vibe, though now looking at their iso I can't point a finger at any one thing that made me think of them as town. Its not to say I think they're not town, but I'm not as certain of it now as I was before.
▼ Grilyon02
Pretty clear just because of new-player-syndrome, but I'm still being alert of them as the possibility of them swindling us could still bite us in the future.
▼ 2B55B5G_TNG
Townlean only because she does seem somewhat interested in scumhunting but its very minimal (probably due to being busy or something)
▼ Big Bon Jovi
null because they have yet to say anything of value
▼ Buzzerbee
Mostly null, I don't know BB's playstyle well, but their posts have seemed to try to help, but a lot seems like filler.
▼ Minimania
Their iso really doesn't have a lot, most of it seems to be defending, one thing I'll give credit for is still trying to figure things out even while being under accusation, because as town I think they'd be more interested in solving the game rather than staying alive, though the heavy focus on his defense is what's making me scumlean
▼ ElijahBaley
Most of his iso just seems off to me, a lot of it gives off frustration, which normally I would associate as a town-trait, but most of the frustration comes from being suspected or asked about their stances, both of which he wasn't very forthcoming of iirc. I don't know their playstyle, but it just doesn't seem right to me
Sorry for the wait, I decided to go into everyone's iso to get a better grasp of my reads

I am not frustrated for being pushed, I am frustrated because MM and Gandhi are effectively calling my play **** and saying I'm scum because of it. This game is actually hard... btw, none of your reads strike me as you being particularly confident in. Why not sheep me and vote BuzzerBee and MM, since I have a much stronger scum lean on these two than anyone else does on me?

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 09:42:21

Marshmallow Marshall wrote:

Also, I am not big into worldbuilding right now because there's little to work with, but if I had to give scummates to Elijah, it'd be among the inactives: it somewhat feels like he's distracting from their inactivity by calling Buzzerbee out for "being busy" (despite it being completely legitimate and despite Buzzer being honestly contributive). As for Pqwerty, I am debating whether or not he'd sheep Elijah THAT openly if he were scum with him. I think it's not impossible (especially knowing Elijah). And if you're going to say "b-but Pqwerty claimed anti-town town role!", that legit means nothing at all. Scum can do that, and may even have interest in doing so to 1) get towncred and 2) excuse their survival on the long run. Of course, it's not scummy in itself, but it's also not towny, and I feel like people are giving him a free pass for it.

when have you ever done that as Mafia. I have literally never done anything like you suggest, and I have never witnessed anyone else doing it (except in the mod)

I actually think Marshmallow Marshall is scum. Literally none of their reads make sense. Normally he's the one defending me from a lynch, now he's pushing for mine. I think Marshmallow is 100% Mafia.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 09:54:36

I think I know why I am being voted, and will briefly explain myself:

1. I believe people are voting me for not having "any reads". To some degree this is true, but this unfortunate situation is not due to lack of trying, believe me. It's just that nearly every post this game looks wholly NAI, they're "logical" posts which could come from any alignment. I am used to people being more emotional in games, getting angry over getting scum read, insanely toxic TvT fights wherein both of the two townies are trying to kill each other, etc. None of this happened this game except for when I pushed Minimania. I've legit skimmed (I haven't read in depth, I may do that at some later point), pretty much through every post in the game and nearly all of them have a scummish-null vibe to them.

2. I am very defensive. Yes, I am very defensive especially towards MM and Gandhi, because as stated above, they are calling my play **** and saying I don't have intent to scum hunt, which is patently false. I absolutely do have intent and even attempted to scum hunt, you just don't see me flooding the thread with nonsense over my MANY attempts.

Please reply to this post, it is imperative that if you vote me 1) and you are town 2) (but even if you are Mafia, then you can get outed and lynched) that you reply so I can convince you of my towniness.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 09:56:54

also, I am against this Condorcet idea. I was not going to state it when Minimania suggested it even though I was already against it at the time, but averaging people's scum reads does not really do anything, it's simply 'fairer', whatever that means. if you have 4 wildly different people making different reads, and you 'average' that out, you don't really get anything back. and in this case, you really don't get anything back at all, because I'm town xD

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 10:02:29

Minimania wrote:

Oh, yeah you know what, that's entirely fair.
But still then, what anti town role can you be if not Mafia?

this is a good question, because I've looked at the Normal Game page on Mafia Scum and the only anti-town role I could find that was "explicitly normal" is Miller, and Miller is not a role that you should hide as a claim.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 10:18:41

also, I won't even belabour how anti-town it is to focus on one guy pretty much all game. I am town, what are you guys doing to do when I get lynched? as it stands, town is royally f u c k e d when I'm dead, because nobody here is genuinely scummy, with the possible exception of Marshmallow Marshall (I am no longer as certain of BuzzerBee being scum as I once was, I reread one of the posts that pinged me and it doesn't look as bad as I thought). I actually wonder if one of the people driving my train isn't specifically trying to get me lynched because 1) they are Mafia and 2) they don't want people to get CFD'd.

alternatively, people are reading my play as "aggressive" for wanting to "lynch and hammer" without info.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 10:26:13

and if you are going to lynch me, for the love of God, trust my read on Minimania and leave them alone. he is THE ONLY person all game who did anything that alignment indicative, please don't usher them out the door.

and push and even lynch, if possible, Marshmallow Marshall.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 10:41:01

1) I have things to say about Condorcet, but I think I could fill pages with why I think it doesn't work, so maybe I'll leave it for post-game

2) It is indeed a fabricated number, as in fact all numbers are. I'm almost supremely confident you are town, but I'm also simultaneously going 'what if I'm misreading?', which to be totally fair I would probably be asking myself over pretty much any read, so...
3) as for BB, I went back to one of the posts where he said that he "doesn't have much time" so he'll "try to give as much information as possible", and it is nowhere near as bad as I remembered it. it doesn't in fact even have the same or similar content as I imagined it did, so I probably just skimmed through it when I originally made the read on him... or I'm misremembering and someone else made the post in question, that is also possible.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 15:29:55

Pqwerty wrote:

So Elijah you wanted us to give reasons for voting you and I'm going to give my strongest reasons first and other reasons next.
1. I understand that it's hard to get reads, and I understand that you're struggling. The fact that you're so convinced that MM is mafia and Mini is town after saying you're struggling to make reads is unusual. This might be another case like Buzzerbee where you saw limited evidence and then got fully convinced, only to reevaluate later. Like maybe you just haven't reevaluated them yet. So either you're confident in your reads because you have inside information, or you're unjustifiably confident in potentially flimsy reads.
2. I don't want to take you to LYLO. If you're town, the condorcet indicates that you'll probably be the target of the chop on LYLO. If you're mafia and made it to LYLO, that means the town probably spent the last 2 days tunneling you and not reading anyone else. You're a hard slot to solve and I'd rather it be now than on LYLO.
3. You said so yourself at the end of #56 in your ISO that you pushed Mini and have him as 99% town. Why push a townread?
tldr; Upon further inspection, my vote on you is more of a policy lynch. If you can explain why MM is mafia I think I'd be more inclined to go that way, but you're my vote today until then. Actually I'm on you in spirit. I'm gonna unvote so that no one swoops in and hammers.
!unvote

1. I've known MM personally for years. I probably am the player who knows him the best. I am confident because of my meta with him. Specifically, MM almost always defends me from pushes coming from "everyone else" when he is town, but right now not only is he 1) pushing me, he is doing it on totally flimsy grounds 2). It is almost as if he wants me to be Mafia. That, or he wants to lynch me because I'm an easy target. In any event, he is probably Mafia. Am I 100% down to lynch him right now? Yes, as of right now, I am.

2. I'm not that hard to solve. If you look into my posts, I am legit BLEEDING my emotions/feelings/state of mind/whatever through. Like, most people explain their train of thought in words or what not, but I am giving you my thoughts more or less exactly as they come to me. Read them carefully and you'll see I am town.

3. I had him as scum initially because he was townreading the anti-town claim solely for making an anti-town claim, saying 'it's pro-town', but in fact if he is scum the claim is not pro-town at all. Anyway after I pushed him I realised he likely wasn't Mafia because I couldn't put myself into his place as a Mafia player. Like I thought he wanted to kill anti-town for being a serial killer, which sounds like something a Mafia would do, because Mafia

would

be hunting for the Serial Killer, but then he clarified Serial Killer generally (in his experience) cannot kill Mafia, rendering the point moot, and his reaction to being pushed by me - anger - was towny.

Minimania

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 15:49:17

Pqwerty wrote:

Ok so say MM is mafia. Any idea who their partners are?
Also, just to entertain the idea, if MM flipped town then who do you think the mafia would be?

1) Someone he has not interacted much with. ShadowsEdge is good on that front, I don't recall any interactions between them. MM is a paranoid scum so he wouldn't be talking to his partners in the thread. Possibly also Grilyon, I don't recall him ever drawing attention to that inactive in comparison to say me or Bon Jovi.

2) I have no idea

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 16:25:31

!vote 2b255gb

by the way, can everyone agree to these:

a) we should all follow some kind of majority vote. for example, follow my vote
b) we must always be prepared to hammer, else we cannot get proper information out of someone.
c) get 2b255gb to L-1. if someone hammers, well, we'll have the info that they hammered.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 18:39:37

I actually think it's ShadowsEdge. Like, we can start with any of these null-marks and push them. ShadowsEdge, 2b, they're all good pushes.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 18:41:20

...by the way - just to make sure - I hope I am not coming across as some kind of **** or something right now. You see me attacking MM for "calling my play ****", but literally at more or less the same time we're playing SC2 together and having fun with no ill will/tension between us (mafia is such a strange game), so if I'm being too personal or something - it is NOT personal, it's just the game lmao, outside of the game I can be quite a chill dude

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 18:43:21

Gikkle wrote:

ShadowsEdge wrote:
With only 2 mafia who know each other
How do we know this? I don't see this anywhere in the OP.

Lmao I'd laugh if that was a scum slip, but... I recall reading that in normal games with 13 players, there are 3 scum. Since we know one of the scum is a traitor, I am guessing that leaves 2 scum that know each other 100%.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 18:45:26

The game should have at least one Mafia or Werewolf group (of at least two members). In mini games (at most 13 players), there must be exactly one such group, with no third parties.

This is from the Mafia scum page on Normal Games. @ShadowsEdge how do you know there's only 2 scum?

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 19:29:08

!vote ShadowsEdge

I am okay with this lynch. Also totally in favour of someone hammering. Just give the man some time to explain before you hammer though

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 23:57:22

He did say there's no more than 3 Mafia in the signup thread, it's not in his first post. I just checked.
That's all he said.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-05 23:58:52

I don't buy Shadow's role now. It would appear Shadows made a legit scum slip.
By the way @Pqwerty care to share your role? On the Normal page I only found one anti-town role that was explicitly Normal, and that's Miller, and that's not a role one would generally hide - more pressingly, it's not a role that one would want to hide from Mafia.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-06 01:06:54

Minimania wrote:

ElijahBaley wrote:
On the Normal page I only found one anti-town role that was explicitly Normal, and that's Miller, and that's not a role one would generally hide - more pressingly, it's not a role that one would want to hide from Mafia
Why would you not hide being a Miller from the Mafia?

If I was a Miller, I would claim that immediately so the cop knows if he checks me I will come up as Mafia. much better than claiming it after the fact

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-06 01:10:56

Minimania wrote:

Aight it's 5 pm but my sleep schedule is **** up, I just woke up
These are some cool developments, welcome to the forums Gikkle!
Immediate thoughts on Gikkle: made a claim to be masons with Big Bon Jovi. That's risky as **** to do early on if you're scum so I don't see that coming from there. Either they really are masons or perhaps Onjit was a cop and investigated Jovi, found he was innocent, and Gikkle took up the mantle. Either way, pretty townie so I'll trust him and Jovi

I did not notice that.

ElijahBaley · 2022-09-06 01:17:49

Minimania wrote:

ElijahBaley wrote:
Minimania wrote:
ElijahBaley wrote:
On the Normal page I only found one anti-town role that was explicitly Normal, and that's Miller, and that's not a role one would generally hide - more pressingly, it's not a role that one would want to hide from Mafia
Why would you not hide being a Miller from the Mafia?
If I was a Miller, I would claim that immediately so the cop knows if he checks me I will come up as Mafia. much better than claiming it after the fact
Yes but that's basic, why not hang back and claim negative utility instead in case there's a Mafia Cop? The Mafia Cop will believe a Miller to be the Traitor if found and thus they'll be kept pretty safe

Fair enough

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#76 2022-09-05 01:26:57

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#85 2022-09-05 10:18:41

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#87 2022-09-05 10:41:01

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#88 2022-09-05 15:29:55

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

!unvote

would

#89 2022-09-05 15:49:17

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#90 2022-09-05 16:25:31

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

!vote 2b255gb

#91 2022-09-05 18:39:37

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#92 2022-09-05 18:41:20

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#93 2022-09-05 18:43:21

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#94 2022-09-05 18:45:26

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#95 2022-09-05 19:29:08

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

!vote ShadowsEdge

#96 2022-09-05 23:57:22

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#97 2022-09-05 23:58:52

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#98 2022-09-06 01:06:54

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

#99 2022-09-06 01:10:56

Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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Re: Mafia 52 Game Thread (GAME OVER)

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