Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

Pqwerty · 2020-06-08 04:22:33

Listen, I’m just trying to get to the bottom of this, okay? So let’s zoom out and you tell me if I understand this right. So, let’s start with the Gabe lynch.

TaskManager wrote:

NorwegianboyEE wrote:
I’d rather vote a scummy player than an inactive player. Lynches on inactives are bad and if it flips town basically gives us nothing to work with the next day. While i agree with voting for pressure on principle, we really don’t have enough time for that anymore and that is why i think we should rather be voting Andymakeer right now.
I'm down for lynching Andy because of the things that happened earlier today
On the other hand inactive players like Gabrielf shouldn't be carried into late game where every single player matters, so it is better that we discard him and players like him as soon as possible if he doesn't make up his mind and start participating in the game

TaskManager wrote:

Andymakeer wrote:
Too many potential deaths N1, if we accidentally lynch any town D1, PR or not, we'll be getting absolutely no information but also decreasing the pool as hell.
If we accidentally lynch a townie that's not the end of the world and we do gain information by analyzing connections the dead townie had with other members, this sometimes goes as far as confirming other player(s) to be townie(s) which reduces the pool of lynch candidates and brings us closer to winning

If I understand this correctly, you were okay with lynching Andy and you also thought Gabriel shouldn’t be carried into the late game because he’s lurking. You also say it would not be the worst thing to happen if we mislynched someone, so even if Andy ended up flipping town, we’d still be okay. So, my question was, “why didn’t you lynch Andy if you were down for lynching him?” You replied

TaskManager wrote:

i ended up not switching the vote to andy because the andy wagon was winning by quite a margin anyway

TaskManager wrote:

i was ready to vote either and would've switched to andy if that wagon lacked traction

So, correct me if I’m wrong, you didn’t lynch Andy because he was going to be lynched anyway? So, in some parallel universe where the Andy wagon didn’t get much traction, you would have switched your vote to Andy? Is it possible that you actually did this because you weren’t trying to draw any attention to yourself by changing your vote at the last minute, because you are either the vig or scum and neither of them wants attention? Or is that too big of an assumption?

Now, here’s my bigger question for you.

TaskManager wrote:

someone else like who?
we have a considerable chance of striking the milkman right now, doing so will literally deny mafia the possibility to recruit another player
if we sidetrack onto someone else today we
a) run a much higher risk of mislynching a townie
b) give mafia larger chances of using the milkman role
c) in the event that shadow dies and flips mafia, and i die and flip vigi (which is most likely whats going to happen), we have to spend another day pushing a wagon for luka, besides it gives him another day to lie himself out of it
if we resolve this today we
a) have a chance of taking the milk man out before they use their role
b) in the event that shadow flips mafia i can resolve the luka problem overnight
c) tomorrow we can hunt for SK/converted mafia

So, if we look back at this post, right, you say “we have a considerable chance of striking the milkman right now”. And this struck me as odd because my gut reaction was “why does this guy think Shadow is milkman? Is that some kind of insider information?” But as I said, both mafia wouldn’t claim and cc the vig slot. So, I asked you why you thought Shadow was the milkman, and you said

TaskManager wrote:

i don't
its a 33% or 50% probability, leaning to 50%, which is a considerable chance

I still don’t understand what you mean, but let’s see if I can piece this together. If we look at point b) for lynching Shadow today, you say that you can resolve the Luka problem. Is it safe to say you think Shadow and Luka are the mafia? And if you’re saying Shadow is the milkman, then are you saying that Luka is the goon? I feel like you’re trying to say that because you think Shadow is mafia, they have a 50% shot of being milkman. But I think my misunderstanding stems from the fact that you lean towards the 50%. How do you lean between two probabilities? Does that mean you think it’s more likely Shadow is mafia, and because of that, there’s probably a 50% chance of flipping mafia? Is that what you’re saying? Again, correct me if I’m wrong. I’m trying to understand so we can stop our chain of misunderstanding.

Pqwerty · 2020-06-09 00:34:49

To be honest, I still really think we’re not in a good spot to be lynching Task/Shadow. I just don’t think there’s enough information to make a good lynch on either Task or Shadow. Norwegian made cases for both (shadow looks suspicious from a vote analysis, Task is connected to Luka by lynches), but even they said they don’t know who to lynch and are just following the cop. And the cop is confused on who to lynch, too. Jawapa seems really torn on this.
I still think it’s the safest and best option to just let it resolve over the night (vig kills the fakeclaim).
If we lynch between Shadow and Task today, the worst case is we mislynch the vig.
If we lynch someone else, the worst case is we mislynch a VT because there’s no PR’s, and we guarantee that a scum dies.
Lynching someone else seems to leave us better off even if everything goes wrong.
But so we can get more info, Task can you post your reads? Maybe we’ll get enough info in the end. I have a migraine so I’ll be off for a bit. I’ll try to be on later before the end of the day. How much time do we have left?

Pqwerty · 2020-06-09 23:50:19

Ok, so I don’t know if the milkman converted someone or not, but I think I found our SK: NorwegianBoy.
Here’s why:
- They tunneled Luka like all of D1 (#9, #18, #22, #41, #42, etc.) for no apparent reason before deciding to tunnel Andy instead.
- Followed the cop instead of making their own decision (#174) after throwing shade on both Shadow (#154, #155, #156) and Task (#159, #160,#162,#166)
- #164 he says “Why would I be Tasks’s teammate lmao. I’m just fine voting him too”. Because they say “I’m just fine voting him too” means that they’re fine with voting for Task AND they’re fine with voting for Shadow. Now, this seems weird because for town, there’s one really good lynch (in this case it was to lynch Shadow) and there’s one really bad lynch (mislynching the vig, Taskmanager), and for a town to be fine with both the really good lynch and the really bad lynch comes off as strange to me. The mafia have the same reason to pick a side, because they want a vig mislynch and they don’t want to lose their partner. Now, the only party that would be indifferent on the result of the lynch is the SK. The SK doesn’t care who dies, they just want people to die, so who they lynch doesn’t matter to them.
- I just feel like all of NorwegianBoy’s towny behavior (the large volume of posts, the scumhunting, the questions, etc.) could also be interpreted as SK behavior. The SK doesn’t know who the mafia are, so their reads will all be genuine. They can prioritize townie behavior, even being as aggressive as NorwegianBoy, because they know that they won’t be nightkilled. They just need to focus on being the towniest town during the day so they don’t get lynched. And with how many people Norwegian went after (Luka, Andy, Shadow, Task, briefly Gabe and briefly Buzzer), it seems like they’re just setting up targets and knocking them down.

!vote NorwegianBoy

Mainly because of the first 3 points. The last one is more speculation, but I feel like Norboy’s view on the lynch yesterday can only be held by an SK.

Minimania

Pqwerty · 2020-06-10 00:48:52

The last point I said is just speculation, so it's not my strongest reason for lynching you.
My biggest reason for lynching you is you had an outlook that only the SK could have on yesterday's lynch.

Pqwerty wrote:

#164 he says “Why would I be Tasks’s teammate lmao. I’m just fine voting him too”. Because they say “I’m just fine voting him too” means that they’re fine with voting for Task AND they’re fine with voting for Shadow. Now, this seems weird because for town, there’s one really good lynch (in this case it was to lynch Shadow) and there’s one really bad lynch (mislynching the vig, Taskmanager), and for a town to be fine with both the really good lynch and the really bad lynch comes off as strange to me. The mafia have the same reason to pick a side, because they want a vig mislynch and they don’t want to lose their partner. Now, the only party that would be indifferent on the result of the lynch is the SK. The SK doesn’t care who dies, they just want people to die, so who they lynch doesn’t matter to them.

As I said, the town cares about the lynch because they want to lynch the mafia, and the mafia cares about the lynch because they want to mislynch the vig. But you were okay with mislynching the vig or lynching the mafia. That's an opinion that can only be held by the SK because they are the only party that would be indifferent to this lynch. And that's why I think you're the SK.

What's your defense against this?

Pqwerty · 2020-06-10 01:15:40

Wait, when you said "I'm just as fine lynching him too", was this when you thought Luka and Task were a team? Because you were on Luka at the time. And that just means you were saying "I would lynch either Luka or Task", and not "I would lynch either Shadow or Task".
Is that what you meant by this statement? Because then yeah I'm misunderstanding what you wrote.

Pqwerty · 2020-06-10 01:45:56

!unvote

My bad. My main reason for voting you is a misunderstanding and the other things aren't too indicative. So, if you're town, Task is vig, I'm town, and Onjit is town (because he's playing in the tournament and kills have still gone through), by process of elimination that leaves Allen, Buzzer, and Gabe as our last 2-3 scum.

Among the three, Allen seems the scummiest so

!vote Allen

Minimania

Pqwerty · 2020-06-10 07:03:31

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

The milkman might actually be Pqwerty, Trying to be the master mind of this game.
His scum theories are likely scum alike trying to get a good bet on trying to convert. And himself trying to pull a knuckle on me is totally repetitive.
-His posts doesn't come up with the best intel.
-Doesn't fully backtrack, just goes with the flow
-In his post, #343. He listed alot of towners as neutral and below
-I asked him if he wanted me to scum hunt. But he was too lazy to answer
-He misunderstood my roleclaim that isn't even convincing enough to me

1) I don't have the best intel because I don't have all the information. I'm trying my best with what I have.
2) What does this even mean? If I don't fully backtrack, that means we're farther ahead than we started. Also, I don't think I've been going with the flow. I've been trying to ask good questions and make good reads this entire game.
3) How am I supposed to know that they're town? I put them as Neutral because they either hadn't posted or they did stuff that was both pro-town and pro-scum.
4) Of course I want you to scumhunt. You should always be scumhunting. Why does my response to that determine whether you scumhunt or not?
5) My misunderstanding was directed at Norboy, not you. I thought he scumslipped but I misunderstood the post.

I'm not the only person who thinks you're scum, Allen. I really don't want to sound mean or rude or anything, but shouldn't you be wondering why you're being scumread by so many people instead of adding to the reasons why they scumread you?
Again, I'm trying to say this as nicely as possible.

Pqwerty · 2020-06-10 17:30:24

Pqwerty wrote:

NorwegianboyEE wrote:
What if a town confirm get’s recruited?
So, about 3 people get killed each day/night cycle, so we probably have about 4 days to solve the game.
If the mafia decides to convert the townconfirm, they have N2 and N3 to convert them. Townconfirms are universally bad for scum, so even if the mafia decide to keep the townconfirm, the SK would want it dead. Because the nurse can't double protect, the SK would probably end up killing it. And even if it did survive, wouldn't it be really weird for a townconfirm to survive 2 nights in a row when both scum teams benefit from it being dead? People would probably get suspicious and lynch it D4. I know I'd lynch it.
Basically, the townconfirm would get wrecked by the SK or the town in the late game, so it's not a great convert.

I said this D1 that it wouldn't be a good idea to convert a townconfirm. Assuming the Milkman read this, I strongly doubt that a townconfirm would get converted. They probably converted a townread or a lurker (NorwegianBoy, Buzzerbee, Onjit).
But even if someone got converted, I agree with NorwegianBoy on this. It's better to lynch the SK today (most likely Allen) and suffer 2 nights of having a single nightkill over lynching a mafia and potentially suffering 2 nights with double nightkills.

Norwee

Pqwerty · 2020-06-10 17:43:50

But yeah, I'm not planning on budging on my vote either. I do want to hear more from BuzzerBee before ending the day early because he barely talked the past two game days (because he was on vacation).

Pqwerty · 2020-06-12 19:46:23

!vote NorwegianBoy

Minimania

Pqwerty · 2020-06-14 03:18:32

I've said it many times and I'll say it again. I think Allen is scum.

!vote Allen

Minimania

Pqwerty · 2020-06-14 12:33:14

!endday

I'm pretty much convinced that Allen is mafia. I don't think I'll be changing my vote.

Minimania

Pqwerty · 2020-06-14 14:26:22

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

Pqwerty - My main suspect, my huge guess is that he converted task into goon.

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

Task Manager - He was converted into goon.

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

Onjit - I doubt that he's town, somewhere far away until went up to send me to my endpoint.

So you think me, Task, and Onjit are mafia?

Pqwerty · 2020-06-14 14:31:35

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

I'm too neutral about onjit

But you just said "I doubt that he's town". The SK died so the only non-town role is mafia. How are you both neutral and scumreading Onjit?

Pqwerty · 2020-06-17 01:41:12

gg all

The only real apology I have is for NorwegianBoy. Although it was an absolute thrill to successfully lynch you that close to the deadline and get away with murder, in hindsight it was a real mean maneuver. Like we were pretty sure you'd kill us and win the game, and we stole it from you. So I'm sorry about that. No hard feelings?

Also I didn't prod anyone because that doesn't help mafia, but it's a shame that Norboy didn't win because town was inactive.

Minimania, rat

Pqwerty · 2020-06-17 01:43:16

But let it be known that I tried really hard this game and I legitimately thought that the cop mass claim was best for town. Like literally everyone but town deserved to win.

ShadowsEdge

Pqwerty · 2020-06-17 04:48:46

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

My think my card is the cutest

Yeah. Every time I lynch you I get flashbacks of celeste turning into sparkles when she dies.

Pqwerty · 2020-06-17 17:51:12

Just some fun things to take note of:
- I converted Task because he was the most active player left who wasn't Norboy or Luka (because Luka was going to get vigged). At the time, pretty much everyone else was either missing or being pushed for a mislynch. So I went against my post saying townconfirms would not get converted.
- I thought Norwegian was an SK because he softed Doc D1 (maybe to bait a shot, maybe just for the lols), tunnelled (or at the very least spent a lot of time throwing shade on) Luka based on misunderstandings (i.e. when Luka said "I agree, it could be LAMIST" he means that my post could be LAMIST (post #91), but Norboy pushes it as if Luka is saying that his own posts are LAMIST), and tried to form a townblock with people he wasn't mindmelding with at all (Onjit was unsure about a Luka lynch, and me and Norboy were on opposite sides of the cop claim strategy). It just seemed like he was trying whatever to lynch Luka. We knew that we were the mafia so this scummy behavior had to be SK. I'm pretty sure Shadow said they thought you were SK first, though. But again, we wanted to be on Norboy's good side so we didn't want to call him out until we absolutely had to (also the game would be harder if we lynched him D1 because less night kills).
- I celebrated when we lynched Andy and Norboy, and I freaked out when BuzzerBee lynched me and when Jawapa found Shadow.
- Andy probably could've won town the game if his tone / view towards the game were better.
- Shadow did a great job of distancing from me and an even better job of associating themselves with the wrong people. I did not.
- Task was sad to be converted because he was an obvious kill and he probably thought I stole his chance to win with town.
- We had plans to leave Jawapa alive and lynch him the next day for being the obvious convert who should've died during the night.
- Because we knew Norwegian would shoot one of us N3, our plan was initially to mislynch Allen, kill Buzzer, and then leave the game to a coinflip between mafia and SK (because Onjit and Gabe would be MIA)
- It scared the heck out of us when NorwegianBoy was online before his hammer. I'm glad his final words were "Why?" instead of "!vote Pqwerty", because then there'd be a coin flip.

TaskManager, ShadowsEdge

Pqwerty · 2020-06-17 17:56:08

Oh also we killed peace because he was playing better than normal and he was a bit more quiet than usual. We thought he might have been a PR.

Pqwerty · 2020-06-17 19:38:02

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

(Did you guys contact him and tell him to close the thread on time or something?)

Crybaby wrote:

I'm sitting here watching the counter go down and I have been for hours.

Didn't you read Crybaby's post? He sits in front of the timer for hours and waits to close the topic lol. That's dedication.

Also, at one point I was going to say that you're the SK because I couldn't convert you, and then I was hoping you'd shoot me and then Task would lynch you as the confirmed unconverted vig.
But that was going to be a last minute thing too so that we still mislynched Allen.

I was gonna say something like "I know you're going to shoot me tonight Norboy, and if I'm going down, I'm taking you with me. I claim Milkman and my convert failed on Norwegian! So he must be the SK! GG Town!"

Pqwerty · 2020-06-17 19:41:06

Either way we were going to do some real buzzer beater BS

Pqwerty · 2020-06-17 20:19:08

I mean I didn't hate you. You were just the only player left standing between us and victory.
Like even the potential plan to act petty was for a mafia win.

Pqwerty · 2020-06-19 00:35:58

Don’t mafia kink shame me!
I’m into some pretty weird stuff

like making notes on every post by every player
or lynching all the active is players so I have less work to do
or sucking the toes of the people I mislynch

Pqwerty · 2020-07-13 22:32:49

Hey Norwee, were you ever suspicious of any of the mafia before it was too late? I know that my lynch on you made you very suspicious of me, but were you on to any of us before that?

Like could you tell that Task got converted or that Shadow was scum before getting outted?

It's been on my mind because I didn't know how well we flew under the radar.

Official Everybody Edits Forums

#26 2020-06-08 04:22:33

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#27 2020-06-09 00:34:49

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#28 2020-06-09 23:50:19

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!vote NorwegianBoy

#29 2020-06-10 00:48:52

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#30 2020-06-10 01:15:40

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#31 2020-06-10 01:45:56

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!unvote

!vote Allen

#32 2020-06-10 07:03:31

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#33 2020-06-10 17:30:24

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#34 2020-06-10 17:43:50

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#35 2020-06-12 19:46:23

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!vote NorwegianBoy

#36 2020-06-14 03:18:32

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!vote Allen

#37 2020-06-14 12:33:14

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

!endday

#38 2020-06-14 14:26:22

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#39 2020-06-14 14:31:35

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#40 2020-06-17 01:41:12

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#41 2020-06-17 01:43:16

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#42 2020-06-17 04:48:46

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#43 2020-06-17 17:51:12

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#44 2020-06-17 17:56:08

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#45 2020-06-17 19:38:02

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#46 2020-06-17 19:41:06

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#47 2020-06-17 20:19:08

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#48 2020-06-19 00:35:58

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

#49 2020-07-13 22:32:49

Re: Mafia 48 - Birthday Party Game Thread [MAFIA VICTORY]

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