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#26 2019-12-03 16:02:58
- Pqwerty
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- From: 'Murica
- Joined: 2015-10-09
- Posts: 2,084
Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]
Also if Slabdrill is the Godfather why don't we have 2 kills each night?
Hey, when you say "we", are you referring to yourself and Slab as the mafia? Also, wouldn't a townie say "the mafia" instead of "we"? I might be looking too deep into this, but it could be a scumslip.
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#27 2019-12-03 16:42:35
- Pqwerty
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- From: 'Murica
- Joined: 2015-10-09
- Posts: 2,084
Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]
Also, Crybaby. Great scumhunting in post #738. I wonder where you found it? (It wasn't the extremely nice post #69 0, was it?)
All jokes aside, the reasons you gave for Slab are the same reasons I gave (except for the stuff about Peace, but you said that it wasn't really damning).
Obviously you saw my post, as you definitely responded to it, so it can be a coincidence that we came to the same conclusion or that I ninja'd you 3 hours before your post.
I don't think your ship for Mutant and Slab as mafia is that great of a choice.
In post #726, you said that you said that it's possible that Mutant was bussing Kira, and that the only reason you townread him is because he got Kira as mafia and was right.
But Mutant is like the towniest townie here (besides Norboy, who is literally modconfirmed). He's literally been scumreading and clearing suspicion this whole game.
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#28 2019-12-04 00:25:49
- Pqwerty
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- From: 'Murica
- Joined: 2015-10-09
- Posts: 2,084
Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]
Listen guys. I did the math and to save you guys time, I'm just gonna say up here that there's an 100% chance that town will win if we lynch a mafia today, and only a 40% chance of town winning if we lynch the hitman today. So, we should aim for the mafia today, and the hitman later. If you want the math, it’s down here.
First, let’s see why town has a 100% chance of winning if they lynch a mafia member today. If they vote out a mafia member today, there will be only one mafia left, and the roleblocker and faction cop can get on them. No one will die because of the block, and faction cop will know the final scum. Then they just vote off mafia, followed by the hitman. There is no possible way to break this.
Second, let’s see why town has a 40% chance of winning if they lynch hitman first. There are seven possible scenarios, and I’ll walk you through each of them.
1) If the Mafia try to kill Mutant and the Roleblocker fails to block them, then Mutant, Peace, and Zelda will all die (Peace and Zelda will die from not infecting). The next day, the town will lynch one of the mafia (because it will literally just be the IC, Roleblocker, Patient 0, and 2 mafia, so finding a mafia will be easy). The roleblocker will block the remaining mafia member, so no one will die that night. Then, with a town majority, the other mafia member will be lynched, and the town will win.
2) If the Mafia try to kill Mutant and the Roleblocker does block them, then Mutant will have a read on the last mafia member, making their lynch quick and easy. Then, the roleblocker will block the last mafia member, no one will die, and the last mafia will be lynched, and the town will win.
Note: the mafia will not choose these above options (because they both guarantee a town win), so we can disregard them. They will not choose to kill Mutant unless they want to lose.
Scenarios 3-6 start like this: If Mafia try to kill Roleblocker and the Roleblocker fails to block them, then the roleblocker will die. Mutant will get a read on the mafia, and town will have enough people to lynch a mafia member. The remaining mafia member will kill Mutant, leaving 1 town, 1 maf, and 1 patient 0.
This leads us to scenarios 3-6:
3) Mafia is lynched and town wins
4) Patient 0 is lynched and mafia wins by getting majority.
5) Town is lynched and mafia wins by getting majority.
6) No one is lynched, mafia kills town or patient, and mafia wins by majority.
Scenario 7 is literally if Mafia tries to kill Roleblocker, but gets blocked. It gets the same result as scenario 2.
In total, there are 3 scenarios where mafia wins, 2 scenarios where the town would win, and 2 impossible scenarios (because mafia would never pick them). So, the town has a 2/5 (40%) chance of winning and mafia has a 3/5 (60%) chance of winning.
Alternatively, we can all ruin this setup by voting and unvoting peace, Zelda, and Diff, so that we all become infected and everyone wins as the fever faction. This is an appealing idea for all scum roles because Patient 0 has a 0% chance of winning (because there are no cases where patient 0 wins), Hitman has a 0% chance of winning (because there are no scenarios where hitman wins), and Mafia has a 60% chance of winning if and only if the town decides to lynch hitman before mafia.
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#29 2019-12-04 01:26:41
- Pqwerty
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- From: 'Murica
- Joined: 2015-10-09
- Posts: 2,084
Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]
Thank you Pqwerty for breaking down the best way for the Mafia to win where the Mafia can see.
I broke down how the town can win, not how the mafia win. There's literally a 100% chance of town winning if it lynches a mafia today, as explained above.
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#30 2019-12-04 06:51:39
- Pqwerty
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- From: 'Murica
- Joined: 2015-10-09
- Posts: 2,084
Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]
Hey instead of watching you two spend 2 pages arguing in circles when neither of you want to budge and none of us want to budge, can someone just hammer?
If not, can we all just vote for diff, get infected, and win as a unified fever faction? /s
We can pull a Hunger Games and threaten Onjit that we'll just infect ourselves and die if he doesn't let us win together. /s
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#32 2019-12-05 05:51:06
- Pqwerty
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- From: 'Murica
- Joined: 2015-10-09
- Posts: 2,084
Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]
Oh crap, sorry. What I was thinking was that Defender = Roleblocker, and that mafia had 3 RB's with different names. Well anyway, it's back to the drawing board because I really think Slab is scummy.
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#36 2019-12-06 02:02:44
- Pqwerty
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- From: 'Murica
- Joined: 2015-10-09
- Posts: 2,084
Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]
Not to mention the lurking yesterday after returning to being mafia, the misdirection of the town today (by talking about shades of green instead of scumhunting), how he was absolutely certain about Jawapa's faction even though he also said that his role doesn't get faction, or how D1 he was basically saying that he was town so often that it wouldn't make sense for it.
But for real...There's four of us who can't fulfill their wincon (Diff won't get shot, I won't get my targets, Zelda's buddy is dead, and Peace is the last mafia). There's three town. I say we join Diff and we lynch everyone who disagrees.
I really just don't want town to win if it means that we get screwed over for doing all their work.
!Vote Diff
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#40 2019-12-06 02:23:59
- Pqwerty
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- From: 'Murica
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- Posts: 2,084
Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]
So, I'm thinking the town will catch on to this. So, what we should do is have the town get on you like they're going to lynch you or something, but then the four of us vote out one of the townies, so the remaining 2 get infected. Then, we vote amongst the two townies, and have everyone get infected. How does that sound?
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#44 2019-12-06 03:11:39
- Pqwerty
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- From: 'Murica
- Joined: 2015-10-09
- Posts: 2,084
Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]
Ok. So, the only way that guarantees a win is if today we lynch a town, Peace kills the other town. Then, Peace votes for you the next day while me and Zelda lynch the remaining town. Then me and Zelda lynch you the next day. This will guarantee that everyone is infected and all four of us win no matter what.
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#46 2019-12-06 03:13:45
- Pqwerty
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- From: 'Murica
- Joined: 2015-10-09
- Posts: 2,084
Re: Mafia 36 [KIRBY WINS!]
Ok. So, the only way that guarantees a win is if today we lynch a town, Peace kills the other town. Then, Peace votes for you the next day while me and Zelda lynch the remaining town. Then me and Zelda lynch you the next day. This will guarantee that everyone is infected and all four of us win no matter what.
you=diff, by the way. It's not a secret message to anyone.
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