Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Different55 · 2019-10-21 00:05:26

mrjawapa wrote:

NoNK wrote:
Not sure why we're all speculating on who is a PR pretty sure that's the job of the mafia?
Because we shouldnt be lynching PRs...

Then in a discussion about who we *should* lynch it seems like PR speculation is the opposite of what we want.

Different55 · 2019-10-21 12:48:05

Tfr?

Different55 · 2019-10-21 14:13:52

mrjawapa wrote:

tfw the mafia team is probably all the people sitting back, watching.

I mean between me, Norboy, NoNK, Kira, Task, Daneeko, whoever else is involved, there's almost definitely at least a scum in there.

I'm still curious how you being doc and healing up NoNK makes him so certain that you're town. It's like he didn't even consider the possibility of anything else, which is bizarre for a mafia game.

Different55 · 2019-10-21 14:20:13

NoNK wrote:

mrjawapa wrote:
tfw the mafia team is probably all the people sitting back, watching.
Imagine my frustration when I called that out yesterday and everyone laughed me off. Town has been imploding all day and no one wants to do anything about it.
@Norwegianboy You wanna give us a readslist before you die?

There's too many people involved. They're not sitting back anymore, they've got their hands in the conversation now.

Different55 · 2019-10-21 14:20:40

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

Why am i going to die?

NoNK said so just go with it

Different55 · 2019-10-21 14:22:32

NoNK wrote:

Different55 wrote:
It's like he didn't even consider the possibility of anything else, which is bizarre for a mafia game.
This applies to you and your hilarious bias towards norwegian being mafia.

I've listed reasons. At this point all you have despite everything is that I suspect Norboy for reasons. Shoo.

Different55 · 2019-10-21 14:24:07

Different55 wrote:

NoNK wrote:
Different55 wrote:
It's like he didn't even consider the possibility of anything else, which is bizarre for a mafia game.
This applies to you and your hilarious bias towards norwegian being mafia.
I've listed reasons. At this point all you have despite everything is that I suspect Norboy for reasons. Shoo.

Worth pointing out that to date you've refused to acknowledge any of them

Different55 · 2019-10-21 14:29:19

NoNK wrote:

@Diff Sorry, I've been avoiding engaging with you because I know arguing back and forth with you won't convince either of us. At this point norwegian being flipped either this day or this night is a done deal so there's /really/ no point now.

That's another question that's been asked multiple times by multiple people. To the point that you asked for multiple people to give their suspicions on Norboy so you could respond. If this many people think he's a credible threat you should be leaping on it if you're town.

Instead, we got "Sorry I don't want to hear it unless you're suddenly and inexplicably abandoning all suspicion on Norboy"

Different55 · 2019-10-22 21:11:54

Safe to say maf is laughing at us rn

@Task LyLo or is that some other fancy mafia term?

Different55 · 2019-10-23 15:31:09

ZeldaXD wrote:

TaskManager wrote:
oh wow what
i think the most likely scenario is that we have/had a vigilante that shot kira
i don't blame them, honestly, if i was vigi i'd shoot kira too lol
at first i assumed that is mafia's kill and had a hard time figuring out why would mafia ever target kira
also i'll admit that i too thought norboy could be actual scum at the end of the day when he just refused to cooperate anymore
norboy can you like not do that again
we could have lynched someone else if you didnt go full scummy mode in the end
unless we have a cop that found something and is willing to share, i propose we lynch daneeko
cause i frankly have no idea at the moment
http://puu.sh/EvBQT/d885945895.png
I think we should investigate Onjit-NoNK-Daneeko connections. I'd be up for lynching Daneeko, see post 534 (2 minutes before NoNK hammers Norboy).

Considering this I think I'd also be up for lynching Daneeko. I've been dismissing him as new but considering how closely he's followed NoNK and that NoNK's been on both wagons, I feel like that's a relatively safe choice.

I think we're missing a role, and I think it's the cop. Unless it's a roleblocker. There could be a pair of masons but the odds of that are very low, cop has the highest odds. I think now's a good time to speak up if you know a maf or know we're about to mislynch.

Wait no that's probably a One-Shot Cop. In which case they probably don't know anything or the person they burned their shot on is already dead. So yeah shouldn't rely on that.

Different55 · 2019-10-23 16:10:35

I don't know if we have the luxury of waiting around for irrefutable proof. In all likeliness our cop, if they even exist, has nothing for us. We will have no solid proof for anybody. I'm not stuck on Daneeko and I'd happily go for anyone else but I'd love to hear your reasoning why you'd refuse to vote for Daneeko except for in currently-impossible circumstances.

Different55 · 2019-10-23 16:14:31

NoNK wrote:

ZeldaXD wrote:
NoNK wrote:
I feel like determining zelda's alignment is the key to solving this game
What do you think would be the game solution considering I am town?
I'm very "busy" "studying" right now and totally not procrastinating and reading online mafia games,
but the tl;dr is I think mrjawapa is confident town, and if we can also write off zelda as confident town, that also points to daneeko + shadow being town, and that pretty much solves the game - I'm gonna make a proper analysis of all this later tonight and see if that makes any sense
btw if anyone can link me any good resources on Determiner Phrase Rules in X-bar theory that would be awesome, I'm having trouble finding them

so according to you

2. mrjawapa - town
3. ZeldaXD - town
6. Onjit
7. TaskManager
8. Daneeko - town
9. ShadowsEdge - town
12. Different55
13. NoNK - town

And Task, Onjit, and I are supposed to be scum?

Some actual reasoning behind any of those seemingly random leaps would be nice.

Different55 · 2019-10-23 17:18:40

TaskManager wrote:

ShadowsEdge wrote:
I still stand by my assumption that Daneeko is town. I've explained my reasonings, and I will stand by them until there is unrefutable proof that Daneeko is not town.
What are your reasonings again
NoNK wrote:
mrjawapa is confident town, and if we can also write off zelda as confident town, that also points to daneeko + shadow being town
?????
How did you deduce any of that

Making seemingly insane leaps and then never explaining them has kinda been his MO the whole game if you haven't noticed.

mrjawapa, Onjit

Different55 · 2019-10-23 18:02:26

NoNK wrote:

diff is back to his old ways

Not back to my old ways, had work til late last night and class in the morning. I'm in a break right now and tbh I'm a tiny bit demoralized from last (game) night's events.

Here are my thoughts on the current setup.

This game's setup is most likely DV?TTTT. Considering there was no extra kill N1, it's most likely that there's a single V (one-shot vig). A lazy SK is also a possibility. It's possible but very unlikely that the ? wildcard is another V (full vig). It's most likely that the wildcard is a cop. It's also possible that it's a B, but it is incredibly unlikely that there are any M's considering there's no Serial Killer (DVMMTTT) or Inno Child (no confirmations from Mutant). It's also possible that the wildcard is another D, I don't see Norboy's role mentioning anything about being one-shot.

In any case, that means we're most likely dealing with 3 maf: 2 goons and a roleblocker.

NoNK wrote:

So we're in MYLO, and your take on the game is that you prefer the consensus lynch, okay fair its a consensus for a reason, but "I'd happily go for anyone else"? Literally how on earth does a town aligned player come up with that statement when we're on the verge of losing the game altogether?

Because I'm not confident in Daneeko and will welcome any stronger reasoning, such as what you've provided.

I'm good with lynching Onjit. Zelda also has some points in his favor as you mentioned in your first post there. I'd be more confident in an Onjit lynch.

Different55 · 2019-10-23 18:39:19

NoNK wrote:

Lynch onjit, if he flips _, vig shoots _

Again, the vig is very likely only one shot. There is only a tiny chance of a SK or a full vig. We can *not* plan around that.

Also correction on my last post, there is only a single D. I forgot that one D = fully doctor. So we are missing another PR, most likely a cop but a small chance of a blocker. Very small chance that the vig is actually full vig. I guess an additional one-shot doctor is a possibility but that's even more unlikely.

Different55 · 2019-10-23 18:52:54

TaskManager wrote:

If we have a Cop that could town clear two players, I think they should claim right now, their input would help on deciding this

Nope, any cop is almost definitely one-shot. Good chance the the subject of their investigation is already dead, too. A roleclaim would still help piece things together, though. Currently in this group:

2. mrjawapa
3. ZeldaXD
6. Onjit
7. TaskManager
8. Daneeko
9. ShadowsEdge
12. Different55
13. NoNK

There are 5 roles hiding:

One-Shot Vig or a lazy SK
Cop or maybe a Roleblocker
Goon
Goon
Maf Roleblocker

Different55 · 2019-10-23 19:56:03

Uggghhh dancing around it is just confusing things, I'm not even sure what I have to lose at this point.

The setup is DV(C/D/B)TTTT.

I'm a One-Shot Vig. If you believe me, there are no other vigs unless there are 2 more Vs, which, on top of being p much vanishingly unlikely, means there's a missing SK that has been inactive the entire game.

Anyway if we want to make hypothetical PR plans we shouldn't waste our time planning around any vig help, I burned my shot on Kira last night.

mrjawapa

Different55 · 2019-10-24 05:26:04

man I step away for a few hours because games gone dead and what do I come back to

alright uhhh

Given the apparent lack of SK, DV?TTTT is still most likely.

If Onjit flips SK, there's most likely no more power roles, giving us DVTTTTT. There would only be 2 mafia in that case, so they'd be aware of a SK.

There's also the possibility of DV??TTT, giving us 3 mafia and a SK. There are most likely no more Vs in there. Considering I'm one-shot, there could only be 2 Vs and the possibility of 3 Vs in total is very low. Other PRs are possible in just about any combination. Mafia might not be aware of a SK. We should have an extra 1-2 PRs (if there's a one-shot doc or even another full doc in there, pls save me) in that case.

Maf can be sure an SK exists in some situations, but they can't be sure that one doesn't.

My bet is still DV?TTTT and Onjit's screwing with us as much as he can on his way out. But I would (and did) say the same about Kira yesterday. Either way the odds seem to be in favor of 3 enemies to take out, and Onjit's definitely one of them.

As far as reads, heck if I know.

2. mrjawapa - No idea
3. ZeldaXD - nonk brought up some good points about them. avoiding sticking to both wagons. then pointing out the people who didn't. I'd lean towards scum.
6. Onjit - scum
7. TaskManager - also scum, no real reason but he needs to die.
8. Daneeko - definitely scum but maybe just a newbie.
9. ShadowsEdge - Onjit claimed and tried to push them as maf. Considering he still seemed like he was trying to win at this point, that makes we want to say they're probably town and he was trying to go for that mislynch.
12. Different55 - cool dude
13. NoNK - sure acts town-y. at least today seems like he's putting in a *lot* of effort to try and solve this for town.

so basically beyond Onjit I have no idea.

Different55 · 2019-10-24 08:34:49

Yeah not saying shadow is cleared but if onjit flips maf then it seems likely that he was going got a mislynch in the moment, which is enough to lean town in their direction.

Speaking of shadow, valid point about Daneeko I keep forgetting that until you bring it back up.

Different55 · 2019-10-24 14:15:20

I personally don't think we should risk it. Odds say we have 3 enemies that need to die in order for town to win. Whether Onjit is SK or Maf, his win condition is to end us, and ours is to end him. We can win without him, and keeping him alive puts us at additional risk. Which way he flips will provide some amount of information about the game's setup.

TaskManager, NoNK, rat

Different55 · 2019-10-24 14:53:02

Friendly reminder that the Maf's MO has been to confuse and disrupt the town the entire game. I'm not buying Onjit's SK claim and even if he is, he still puts us at risk. Lynch him today, see how he flips, go after Task tomorrow, work out the last scum between Zelda and whoever else is left.

Vote Onjit

Different55 · 2019-10-24 14:56:21

Modus Operandi, they way they're working.

Mylo is Mislynch and Lose. Meaning if we lynch a townie, it's game over.

LyLo is Lynch or Lose, which means if we do NOT lynch scum, it's game over.

Different55 · 2019-10-24 15:19:53

TaskManager wrote:

also why suddenly lynch me
also if you don't trust onjit's SK claim and you think he's mafia then where's the last PR

They will appear on the 4th day to roleclaim and save us all.

TaskManager wrote:

it was just diff but i still dont know why

you know I really don't know. Just A Feeling™

Different55 · 2019-10-24 15:21:11

But if Onjit flips SK yeah I think I said already odds are that we're alone in the universe and there's no extra PR.

Different55 · 2019-10-24 15:37:06

TaskManager wrote:

imagine if you claimed cop and outed shadow immediately and not two real life days later
jesus **** christ

Why would he out a maf when the town is in MyLo. All scum has to do is get us to lynch a townie and that's game over.

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