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NoNK

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Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Now that I've written all that out, I think that Onjit is the safest lynch today, since he could fit in both possible scumteams.

I think zelda/shadow are more likely town then mafia. If Onjit flips town, the vigilante/serial killer should avoid shooting different55 tonight.

Daneeko is probably the mislynch that loses us the game and if you guys wanted to rule him out we should have lynched him yesterday like Kira, Jawapa and I wanted instead of pushing norwegianboy over the edge of self destruction.

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Making seemingly insane leaps and then never explaining them has kinda been his MO the whole game if you haven't noticed.

Yes thank you for throwing shade at me that really helps town solve the game

Feel free to die any time

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Sorry ninja'd, didn't expect you to reply logically

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Zelda and Shadowsedge are likely the same alignment because of the way they're soft-aligning.

Not necessarily.

Congrats, you disagreed on the least substantial part of my mega post, what's your take on Onjit?

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

This game is actually only like 75% screwed imo and there's a chance we can make it work if we actually put in effort. I'm just going to assume we have a vigilante because if there's a serial killer they need to work together with us anyways to prevent getting endgamed by the mafia team so they might as well be a town vigilante for all intents and purposes.

Lynch onjit, if he flips mafia, vig shoots Diff
Lynch onjit, if he flips town,  vig shoots Daneeko

Pretty sure that's a minimum of 1 mafia dead 100% of the time and we survive to day 4, but obviously the vigi gets the final say on who he shoots

Am I not allowed to? Also how is that least substantial? You're assuming the alignment of two players

what's your take on Onjit?

I think he'd be a fair choice but I still have doubts about it

Sorry if that came off rude. I do think you're town, but I just think you get caught up a bit in the small things sometimes and miss the bigger picture.

You are free to disagree, espescially on that side point since I'm not as confident on it. The main point is that I think diff/onjit have the highest scum equity, but if I'm wrong there's weaker evidence for the other two.

I think it would be a good move for you (and anyone else for that matter) to post your doubts on Onjit, or if you think there's a better lynch I'm still all ears.

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Do you think zelda is more likely mafia than onjit? Like diff said we might only get one shot at this, so everyone who has ideas should be contributing them.

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

That actually makes a ton of sense and that explains why you were playing sort of laid back.

I think the other power role should stay hidden unless they have a useful result or they're being lynched.

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Why didn't you out this as soon as the day started, knowing this was MYLO?

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Considering you are the most likely person in this game to be mafia and you suddenly claim a cop with a guilty result in MYLO, and not even at the beginning of the day, I find this claim incredibly suspect

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

I didn't realise it was MYLO

YO THATS A LIE

I CAN PROVE IT

This is mylo though, so we should really be trying to find potential scumteams.

I think zelda and task are onto something with the onjit -- daneeko connection. I called out onjit as town with the assumption that norwegianboy was going to flip mafia (since his vote on norwegian didn't feel like a bussing vote), turns out that assumption was wrong.

Keep in mind also: Kira died last night, and he was the one who originally suggested daneeko as a compromise lynch. That wagon didn't gain a lot of traction and went nowhere. Voters were myself, kira, and mrjawapa, 3 town imo.

YOU LITERALLY RESPONDED TO A POST I MADE WHERE I SAID IT WAS MYLO

YOU LITERALLY WOOTED A POST DIRECTLY UNDER ONE WHERE TASKMANAGER SAID IT WAS MYLO

I CAN PROBABLY FIND MORE EVIDENCE IF I LOOKED HARDER BUT YOU HAVE BEEN READING THE GAME AND YOU KNOW THAT, YOU ADMITTED YOU WOOT POSTS YOU AGREE WITH

!vote Onjit

!vote Onjit

!vote Onjit

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Ok thanks for that failed attempt at getting the mislynch through on shadow

Diff / Shadow are basically confirmed town by mechanics at this point once onjit flips red, I think we are going to win this game

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

If the other power role wants to counterclaim to seal the deal, that's cool

If you wanna stay hidden (like you're a 1-shot cop with an unused shot) thats cool too no pressure

I'm not losing to a fakeclaim though

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Claiming ignorance of mechanics is worthless here. Your partners could have told you to claim a result to save yourself, there was a lot of time elapsed between you becoming consensus suspect and you claiming.

Plus, you know yourself that's not true. As town you come up with gimmicky strategies - I watched you in purgatorEE make a gambit where according to yourself you intentionally played scummy to attract suspicion with the intention of catching people who scumread you disingenuously. (I'm ad-libbing a bit because you kind of gave up at the end and the scheme fell through so I don't know what it would have looked like to be successful but the point stands)

But yeah if you had a guilty you would have claimed it a lot earlier, even without esoteric mechanical knowledge, not when it started looking like you were going to get lynched. Your story is way to convenient, nothing you're saying is true, yeah ok bye

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Real talk though if you are a serial killer fake claiming to save yourself, just claim right now, we literally lose if we lynch you today and there are 3 mafia alive.

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Okay so what's the probability that you're still mafia and you somehow mechanically know that there's no serial killer but you claimed that to throw us off further and just endgame us right here

Diff could you run the math on that? Do mafia have some way of knowing there's no serial killer based on the claims so far?

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

*** it I'm doing the math right now

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

So if onjit is serial killer then the setup is

DVTTTTT  = Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof)

That means that there are only 2 mafia, meaning if we lynch onjit today we don't lose the game because

8 alive (5 vs. 2 vs. 1) -- lynch --> 7 alive (5 vs. 2) -- nightkill --> (4 vs. 2)

But if onjit is lying about being the serial killer and there are 3 mafia then onjit is mafia so we can lynch him anyways

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

CONCLUSION: WE CAN LYNCH ONJIT TODAY REGARDLESS OF IF HE'S THE SERIAL KILLER OR NOT AND I'M A LITERAL MAFIA GOD

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

gg though you actually had me fooled for most of the game

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Assuming onjit flips SK and not Ultra Meme Mafia Man, that would make different55 confirmed town and almost certainly going to die tonight

If we could hold off hammering onjit until Diff checks in and maybe posts reads that would be cool

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Well, no diff is confirmed town even if we're living in bizarro land. Okay that's fine point still stands

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

vt

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

good reaction test I rate 10/10

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

good reaction test I rate 10/10

Stop bullshitting us fdoou.

I know you're the godfather.

Yo if you can't see that I'm town by now literally just ISO me and watch as your opinion changes instantly as you are overwhelmed by my overpowering town aura.

I'm not going to be around much tomorrow because I've got a midterm. My vote remains on Onjit. Let different55 hammer him when he's ready.

NoNK

Member

Joined: 2019-07-13

Posts: 922

Re: Mafia 33 [Friday Wins!]

Onjit's post is BAD

Onjit has an easy way to betray town and if he's playing to his win condition (something we should always assume) he WILL TAKE IT

All he needs to do to become unlynchable for the rest of the game is to kill a townie tonight (other then diff) and he literally gets into 2-2-1, which is autoloss for town but winnable for serial killer. If we no-lynch today, we go into 3-2-1, which is ALSO autoloss for town but once again winnable for serial killer

The fact that he only counts cases instead of actually considering the probability of these cases is intentionally deceptive, because a lot of these cases rely on contradictory strategies (you can't lynch AND no-lynch) and don't actually tell you the probability of each option occuring!

Onjit's post is intentionally deceptive (obviously, he's playing to survive), there are 3 enemies of town, of which he is one of them, and eliminating him today gives us the greatest probability of winning.

According to your humble mechanical knowledge expert, we should still lynch Onjit for maximum town success