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#26 2019-08-31 20:08:43

NoNK
Member
Joined: 2019-07-13
Posts: 577

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

I feel like the best strategy for this setup would be a partitioning scheme. Divide the list of townies up into a number of groups (I'm thinking 3), then have everyone in the game claim which group they are in. Lynch inside the groups that have the juiciest ratio of town:mafia, and when the all the mafia die in a group, everyone left in it is confirmed town. It also doesn't pinpoint identities 1 to 1 with players, so there's still a chance for mafia to mess up the double nightkill. From there, it becomes an optimization problem, since smaller partitions help you pinpoint mafia better but you get more double nightkills, and larger partitions mean less double nightkills, but also less information on who could be mafia.

If town just tries to play this like a normal game, the town winrate is about 12% (read: horrible)

, so massclaiming is better than not massclaiming. It might go differently in practice, especially if you force everyone to massclaim and then analyze the counterclaims typing style very closely.

If town massclaims here's what happens:

Each day is a coinflip between town or mafia. If you lynch a town, then you have to lynch the imposter mafia the next day.

If town wins 3 out of 4 coin flips, they win the game.

If mafia wins 2 of the 4 coin flips, they win the game,

Town's winrate is 25% if they massclaim. Either way, I don't see town winning this setup very often from a mathematical perspective, and I can't really see any more complex strategy doing much better then ~33%, so it like a torture setup for town. Thank me later.

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Wooted by:

#27 2019-08-31 20:12:50

NorwegianboyEE
Member
From: Norway
Joined: 2015-03-16
Posts: 3,276

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

But what's the difference with mass claiming? Everyone will claim to be vanilla townie, and there are no power roles either.

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#28 2019-08-31 20:12:59

NoNK
Member
Joined: 2019-07-13
Posts: 577

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

NoNK, even though you seem so interested in mafia game setups you don't really seem to play very often. Why is that?

I don't enjoy playing mafia. I've done it a few times on mafiascum and also onsite. I find it too stressful.

I do have a soft spot for finding optimal play in partial information games though. AI might be taking over the world of perfect information games (read: Stockfish, AlphaGo, etc.), but it's still having a hard time with games that have hidden information in them.

It was only this year that AI was able to beat humans in 6-max NLHE. No one is ever going to make an AI that can understand mafia setups, which can have rules as complex as the limits of imagination.

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#29 2019-08-31 20:13:22

NoNK
Member
Joined: 2019-07-13
Posts: 577

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

But what's the difference with mass claiming? Everyone will claim to be vanilla townie, and there are no power roles either.

You don't claim your role, ya big dummy, you claim your identity.

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#30 2019-08-31 20:14:17

NorwegianboyEE
Member
From: Norway
Joined: 2015-03-16
Posts: 3,276

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

Oh, i just assumed things. My bad.

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#31 2019-08-31 20:18:30

Kirby
Member
Joined: 2015-04-04
Posts: 4,241

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

Do you think changing the amount of town to mafia to 11-12 to 3 (from 11-12 to 4) would still have a massive mafia advantage, or would that balance it a bit? I'm not really sure what rules to add/remove at this point that wouldn't overcomplicate the game/change it too much fundamentally

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#32 2019-08-31 20:20:16

mrjawapa
Corn Man ?
From: Ohio, USA
Joined: 2015-02-15
Posts: 5,702
Website

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

peace wrote:
2B55B5G TNG wrote:

Idc if signup soon I’ll just

!join

Time to type like peace I’m very good at that : )))))))

you can join now? ok !JOIN

If peace is allowed to play, I'm backing out


13kz8x09.gif

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#33 2019-08-31 20:20:39

peace
Member
From: admin land
Joined: 2015-08-10
Posts: 8,896

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

kirby mafia havign a night kill and town not is a big advantange of mafia


peace.png

thanks hg for making this much better and ty for my avatar aswell

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#34 2019-08-31 20:24:09

NoNK
Member
Joined: 2019-07-13
Posts: 577

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

11 vs 3:

No massclaim: 20% winrate

Massclaim: 37.5% winrate

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#35 2019-08-31 20:25:08

peace
Member
From: admin land
Joined: 2015-08-10
Posts: 8,896

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

nonk what if maf keeps guessing correctly


peace.png

thanks hg for making this much better and ty for my avatar aswell

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#36 2019-08-31 20:26:52

NoNK
Member
Joined: 2019-07-13
Posts: 577

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

Another fundamental flaw of this setup is that massclaim, which tends to be the best (or at least better) strategy, clears a majority of town, and probably makes the game less fun to play for all of them, since all the action is now focused on 6 or 8 people.

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#37 2019-08-31 20:27:32

Kirby
Member
Joined: 2015-04-04
Posts: 4,241

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

just out of curiosity, how are you making these calculations? are they under the impression that the votes are made completely at random, or is there more to it than that? Since the town knows the true identities of those who are mafia, it should theoretically be a little bit easier for them to identify who the mafia is than a standard mafia game

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#38 2019-08-31 20:27:44

NoNK
Member
Joined: 2019-07-13
Posts: 577

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

peace wrote:

nonk what if maf keeps guessing correctly

Right, my no massclaim number doesn't take into account that mafia could still guess people and pull out some double kills. Meaning it's even worse then 20%.

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#39 2019-08-31 20:31:01

NorwegianboyEE
Member
From: Norway
Joined: 2015-03-16
Posts: 3,276

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

Ehh... This isn't looking very balanced.
Is there no way to set up an anonymous mafia game that's not super broken?

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#40 2019-08-31 20:31:08

NoNK
Member
Joined: 2019-07-13
Posts: 577

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

Kirby wrote:

just out of curiosity, how are you making these calculations? are they under the impression that the votes are made completely at random, or is there more to it than that? Since the town knows the true identities of those who are mafia, it should theoretically be a little bit easier for them to identify who the mafia is than a standard mafia game

I'm just doing expected value. Expected value is just a baseline, and you need to take into account real life factors. For example, town tends to do better then expected in setups without a nightkill (ie. PurgatorEE).

Can town probably catch 2 out of 3 of the mafia and win the game based on typing style? I'm just the numbers man. And yeah, I do think town outperforms EV in this case based on the whole anon mechanic.

11 vs 3 might be somewhat balanced in practice if you massclaim. Is it fun? That's up to you guys to decide

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#41 2019-08-31 20:44:00

NoNK
Member
Joined: 2019-07-13
Posts: 577

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

NorwegianboyEE wrote:

Ehh... This isn't looking very balanced.
Is there no way to set up an anonymous mafia game that's not super broken?

Just off the top of my head here's an idea:

It would probably be an open / closed normal game where a bunch of weak town power roles are handed out based around anonymous mechanics, where "name" means ingame name and "identity" means identity in real life. ie. Name: "slippery-carrot" Identity: NoNK

ie.

Identity cop: Choose one name each night. You will learn that person's identity.
Informed townie: You know that NoNK is aligned with town, and NoNK2 is aligned with the mafia.
Informed mafia: You know that NoNK, NoNK2, and NoNK3 are town power roles.
Anonymous friendly Neighbor: Choose one name each night. That person gets a message "[your identity] is aligned with town!"

Of course that would take effort to make and balance. If someone decides to take that sort of thing on, I would volunteer to help.

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#42 2019-08-31 20:57:30

Slabdrill
Formerly 12345678908642
From: canada
Joined: 2015-08-15
Posts: 3,389
Website

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

I think this game could actually be pretty reasonable. Knowing who's a town/maf makes it all about analyzing to figure out who matches a mafia's style from other places.


suddenly random sig change

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#43 2019-08-31 22:03:27

ASDruska
Member
From: Syria!
Joined: 2016-08-05
Posts: 1,044

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

no wooting? thats easy! i do that everyday!
if you were bipolar or had multiple personality disorder would that make the game easier or no difference for you?


ButterCoin is a form of cryptocurrency and it does absolutely nothing but the price only goes up
please invest i'm going out of business

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#44 2019-08-31 22:14:58

Kira
Member
Joined: 2019-04-22
Posts: 1,303

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

you should start the signups in advance, looks promising though. Proceed with caution though, it looks very different from other setups.

!pre sign up

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#45 2019-08-31 22:18:47

peace
Member
From: admin land
Joined: 2015-08-10
Posts: 8,896

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

i think this game ocudl be more fun wihtout night kills or maby it indeed needs a few poor town PR's (whose are not strong but sitll can do something) becuase no ngith kill form af menas there is no pahses which coudl make thi boring aswell


peace.png

thanks hg for making this much better and ty for my avatar aswell

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#46 2019-08-31 22:34:56

mutantdevle
Member
From: Hell
Joined: 2015-03-31
Posts: 3,557
Website

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

ASDruska wrote:

no wooting? thats easy! i do that everyday!
if you were bipolar or had multiple personality disorder would that make the game easier or no difference for you?

It makes it harder as your approach/attitude towards the game may be a little inconsistent which is often seen as scummy whether you are mafia or not - and it's very immoral to try and justify any in-game actions by stating your disorder.


kMMA0S6.png dxGW6FY.png

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#47 2019-08-31 23:56:26

Schlog
Member
Joined: 2015-07-21
Posts: 1,875

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

this isnt uhc

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#48 2019-09-01 00:08:59

Onjit
Banned
Joined: 2015-02-15
Posts: 9,150
Website

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

sign me up in advance :^)

this looks fun


:.|:;

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#49 2019-09-01 00:15:30

ShadowsEdge
Member
From: somewhere in space ig
Joined: 2018-11-06
Posts: 864

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

If we're signing up in advance, I'd like to sign up too


I have no idea what I'm doing so just enjoy my random posts ok. Thanks.

   ~Rene1236789

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#50 2019-09-01 00:16:25

TaskManager
Formerly maxi123
From: i really should update this
Joined: 2015-03-01
Posts: 9,053

Re: Mafia 30 Signups

If we're signing up in advance, I'd like to sign up too


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peace1568921824762106

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