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#26 2019-05-07 07:14:53

TaskManager
Formerly maxi123
From: i really should update this
Joined: 2015-03-01
Posts: 7,340

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Anatoly wrote:

That picture looks fake and/or rigged!
!lynch Anatoly


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signature by HG, profile picture by bluecloud, thank!!
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#27 2019-05-07 07:37:42

RailMat
Formerly MatthijsFidder
From: Emmen (NL)
Joined: 2017-05-22
Posts: 1,341

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Current votecount:
[1] peace: Kirby
[1] mrjawapa: Onjit
[1] mutantdevle: Anatoly
[1] Anatoly: TaskManager

7 votes needed for majority.

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#28 2019-05-07 09:59:54

2B55B5G TNG
Member
From: Levitation Planet
Joined: 2016-08-27
Posts: 986

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

I think that lynching in Day 1 is good.


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#29 2019-05-07 10:31:38

mutantdevle
Member
From: Hell
Joined: 2015-03-31
Posts: 2,530
Website

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Anatoly wrote:

Lets go on random?

!vote mutantdevle

Let me fix that for you:

Hidden text

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#30 2019-05-07 11:56:05

RailMat
Formerly MatthijsFidder
From: Emmen (NL)
Joined: 2017-05-22
Posts: 1,341

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Current votecount:
[1] peace: Kirby
[1] mrjawapa: Onjit
[1] mutantdevle: Anatoly
[1] Anatoly: TaskManager

7 votes needed for majority.

33 hours left

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#31 2019-05-07 12:24:08

Anatoly
Member
From: Germany, Bavaria, Munich
Joined: 2015-07-31
Posts: 5,957

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

This is a beautiful start of the day. This game has chances.

If you’re the mafia, please raise your hand.


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#32 2019-05-07 12:42:42

Luka504
Member
From: Serbia,probs never heard of it
Joined: 2015-02-19
Posts: 2,239

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Tbh I'd rather not lynch Devlin (not yet at least) mostly because I consider him to be a pretty valuable player to us. (provided he's a townie)
He's pretty experienced in this game and he puts a lot of effort and thought into everything he writes.
That being said, there's still a chance he's a mafia member, and due to him being a very convincing liar when he needs to be, I'll take everything he says with the biggest grain of salt I have. Until I'm sure he's innocent, that is.
However, if he *is* town, I want him to stay.
I'd still recommend going with peace or Anatoly for a first lynch, though.


How long will it take me to get banned again?
Place your bets right here.

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#33 2019-05-07 12:43:06

Luka504
Member
From: Serbia,probs never heard of it
Joined: 2015-02-19
Posts: 2,239

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

* If we don't have any better candidates.
I forgot you can't edit posts.


How long will it take me to get banned again?
Place your bets right here.

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#34 2019-05-07 13:08:10

Anatoly
Member
From: Germany, Bavaria, Munich
Joined: 2015-07-31
Posts: 5,957

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Luka504 wrote:

Tbh I'd rather not lynch Devlin (not yet at least) mostly because I consider him to be a pretty valuable player to us. (provided he's a townie)
He's pretty experienced in this game and he puts a lot of effort and thought into everything he writes.
That being said, there's still a chance he's a mafia member, and due to him being a very convincing liar when he needs to be, I'll take everything he says with the biggest grain of salt I have. Until I'm sure he's innocent, that is.
However, if he *is* town, I want him to stay.
I'd still recommend going with peace or Anatoly for a first lynch, though.

I can confirm im without power, that means the operato of the game definitely didn’t just randomly give out roles //forums.everybodyedits.com/img/smilies/sad


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#35 2019-05-07 13:15:21

Luka504
Member
From: Serbia,probs never heard of it
Joined: 2015-02-19
Posts: 2,239

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

You're not really helping yourself, anatoly. If you're a townie, then you are even less likely to make a contribution to the town, therefore we would lose even less if you turn out to be telling the truth.


How long will it take me to get banned again?
Place your bets right here.

Luka504.png

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#36 2019-05-07 13:16:14

Anatoly
Member
From: Germany, Bavaria, Munich
Joined: 2015-07-31
Posts: 5,957

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

And yes, pretty sure, as the probability to hit a Mafia or SK is 4/13  < 0.4 (

So I really think it’s better just to end the day, ...

I mean, why is ending the first day so bad?

Anyone we will lynch will pretty sure be town, if we do a mistake, with a power role,

And information is anyway given at night.

Now question: Does the SK act like a loaf?


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#37 2019-05-07 13:20:14

Anatoly
Member
From: Germany, Bavaria, Munich
Joined: 2015-07-31
Posts: 5,957

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Luka504 wrote:

You're not really helping yourself, anatoly. If you're a townie, then you are even less likely to make a contribution to the town, therefore we would lose even less if you turn out to be telling the truth.

Okay, then

for the town!

I’m not power role, so this will be the best choice.

I’m either:

Mafia OR SK -> Profit
Town -> Profit
Power role -> I would act different.

Just don’t kill me in the next 2 hours. When I’ll be on my computer ill tell you all possible plans and attentions in this game, what I think may happen, etc.


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#38 2019-05-07 14:20:07

Anatoly
Member
From: Germany, Bavaria, Munich
Joined: 2015-07-31
Posts: 5,957

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Anatoly wrote:

Just don’t kill me in the next 2 hours. When I’ll be on my computer ill tell you all possible plans and attentions in this game, what I think may happen, etc.

Okay so, the entire community of this game (ee is being hacked is a nice joke right here) is made of the following:

  • Townie

  • Seer: See someone's role card

  • Doctor: Protect someone from being night killed

  • Vigilante: Kill someone (only 2 times)

  • Classic cop: See someone's alignment (Seer but less powerful)

  • Roleblocker: Block someone from nightkill; is afraid of blocking the serial killer

  • Goon

  • Roleblocker: Evil Roleblocker; is afraid of blocking the serial killer

  • Role cop: ee someone's alignment

  • Serial killer: overpowered, only lynch-able

In this case this is the obvious strategy of the Serial killer:

  • Kill the Seer, Classic Cop and the Role cop in the first three days.

  • As the Mafia can talk, if the Roleblocker (mafia) gets killed they will be able to know who the serial killer is. This is only avoidable if the actual serial killer or the vigilante kill them.

  • Avoid being lynched

  • Win condition: He and one town stays alive. His probability to win grows up to 50% in the end (He with one mafia alive is an obvious loss for the town, under question is if they win together..)

The strategy of the mafia:

  • Wins if the majority is reached. This means 2 towns and 3 mafia. They will be trying to kill the serial killer during the day, as this is one their win conditions. 2 towns, 1 SK and 3 mafia is still a possible path to the SK's win condition.

  • Two nights it's possible to kick out 3 players (Vigilante, SK, Mafia). The other nights will be possibly losing 2 players, rarely 1, very rare 0

If we assume that the Vigilante doesn't use his powers, the SK choose someone: 1/13, the Mafia choses someone (actual probability higher due to human psychology): 1/13. The doctor choses someone. (won't be included below: Both Roleblocker may accidentally block the SK. 5 players is the maximal amount of people killed a night; this will not be achieved, more likely is 2 or 3.)

The probability that only one person gets chosen is 1/169. That means with a probability over 99.4% 2 players will be killed next night. For the doctor it gives a probability of 2/13 to heal someone. The probability that a mafia player gets lost is 3/13, which is pretty small, killing another townie today would be absolutely FATAL.

!nolynch

Back to the strategy of the mafia:

  • Every day the chance to lynch the serial killer grows: 1/13 (today), 1/11, 1/9, 1/7 (day 4 would be only 5 players if vigilante uses his powers)

  • But also, everyday, the chance for the Roleblocker to get died grows.

  • This means that this mafia member is worth only by the amount of people in game.

  • The mafia will be trying to throw their role blocker under lynchment up to the end.

Our strategy, comments..:

  • There are 13 players but only 10 roles. This means, if I'm not wrong that 4 towns are in game. //forums.everybodyedits.com/img/smilies/cool

  • Back to my favourite subject - math. As for sure, two players will be eliminated next night (as already said, the probability for one person to get killed is less than 0.5%...): This means the vigilante should only use his powers starting after day 2 or even better 3. Up to that moment, do not even think of your powers and pretend powerless.

  • Seer: There's nothing wrong with you, there is no role to see if someone used their power, there is no role to see if someone came to someone at night. You may want to look at  Norwegian. Pretty sure he is happy that he has a power role. Just on what side he is, not really clear.  TaskManager is obviously not happy with his Town role. I really have big suspects about Norwegian. I'm not sure whether we just end the day or go on with him (me or peace - Luka). His behaviour is really noticing, but this could be also, because he died last night in N1...

  • Kirby doesn't look Mafia, as he is just lynching (sorry, peace), someone who is suspected to ruin the game, like peace, etc. Kirby = probably town. But in the last game he posted less when he was on the side of the town..

  • TaskManager is NOT in Kirby's team (other than both being town //forums.everybodyedits.com/img/smilies/tongue )

  • @everyone don't want to have a nolynch today. This does give good information. According to the Moderator this was the log of votes:

Log of votes today: (not on same team, or both town)

Kirby > Peace
Jawapa > Onjit
Onjit > Jawapa
Me > mutantdevle (another of my suspects, will explain below)
TaskManager > Me

RailMat wrote:

Current votecount:
[1] peace: Kirby
[1] mrjawapa: Onjit
[1] Onjit: jawapa <= You have forgotten this, try at least showing that you're moderating the game... #19. Do you read what we post???
[1] mutantdevle: Anatoly
[1] Anatoly: TaskManager

This gives us:

  • TaskManager and mutantdevle are to be suspected on one team. (protection).

  • I suspect mutantdevle as mafia

  • peace and Kirby, mrjawapa and Onjit are either both town, or one town and opposite role, or one SK and one mafia. But it does give us that they're not both mafia

After this post people will be changing strategy instantly.

But yes, everyone, great job! This day was the most informative day I ever saw.

With this, forget what I told above. (I'm writing with my thoughts, so I may do some mistake, as my thinking changes constantly.)

The mafia may be mutantdevle, Norwegian and someone else.

!lynch mutantdevle

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#39 2019-05-07 14:41:20

2B55B5G TNG
Member
From: Levitation Planet
Joined: 2016-08-27
Posts: 986

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Wow this is such a long post from Anatoly, maybe I’m dumb, but I still don’t understand why you suspect Mutantdevle. You said you don’t want to lynch a town, but for me it still seems like Mutantdevle is town, can you explain clearly please?

Also, I still prefer lynching a person, we may lynch a mafia or SK if we’re very lucky. And if we lynch a town, we can know his/her role, so we can be more sure about the remaining roles. But not lynching means losing a chance to lynch a mafia or SK. So I think we should lynch someone today.


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#40 2019-05-07 14:43:15

RailMat
Formerly MatthijsFidder
From: Emmen (NL)
Joined: 2017-05-22
Posts: 1,341

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Anatoly wrote:
RailMat wrote:

Current votecount:
[1] peace: Kirby
[1] mrjawapa: Onjit
[1] Onjit: jawapa <= You have forgotten this, try at least showing that you're moderating the game... #19. Do you read what we post???
[1] mutantdevle: Anatoly
[1] Anatoly: TaskManager

I did read it but IDK what he means. It is read like !Inch. That is why he is not in the votecount

Last edited by RailMat (2019-05-07 14:44:04)

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#41 2019-05-07 14:48:13

2B55B5G TNG
Member
From: Levitation Planet
Joined: 2016-08-27
Posts: 986

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

And why did you take joke votes so serious lol


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#42 2019-05-07 14:49:41

TaskManager
Formerly maxi123
From: i really should update this
Joined: 2015-03-01
Posts: 7,340

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

oh my god anatoly why do you so much love writing walls of text
im not sure whether thats a **** or you're just misinterpreting things left and right

actually since our "must lynch" policy was in place to keep an odd number of players, doesn't SK's presence nullify that cause 2 deaths per night
plus a potential vigi kill if that role is in game (which makes the point stand again in a case of 3 kills at night)
speaking of which, do we have any clues on what roles are actually in game
speaking of roles again, is it guaranteed that an SK role is actually in game..?


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#43 2019-05-07 14:51:03

RailMat
Formerly MatthijsFidder
From: Emmen (NL)
Joined: 2017-05-22
Posts: 1,341

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Current votecount:
[1] peace: Kirby
[1] mrjawapa: Onjit
[1] mutantdevle: Anatoly
[1] Anatoly: TaskManager

7 votes needed for majority.

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#44 2019-05-07 14:57:14

peace
Member
From: admin land
Joined: 2015-08-10
Posts: 4,849

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Anatoly wrote:

And yes, pretty sure, as the probability to hit a Mafia or SK is 4/13  < 0.4 (

So I really think it’s better just to end the day, ...

I mean, why is ending the first day so bad?

Anyone we will lynch will pretty sure be town, if we do a mistake, with a power role,

And information is anyway given at night.

Now question: Does the SK act like a loaf?

why is it bad? im not sur ebut in D1 you can sitll get information about  players to know thier roles

Anatoly wrote:

5 players is the maximal amount of people killed a night;

pretty sure if im rihgt if a orle blocker blocks SK SK kills him instead of choosen target and not both

geee im not sure who to lycnh how long do we have left?


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a.pngty anatoly and nikko99 for a golden sig and blueclued for avatar and daneeko for pixelating my sign //forums.everybodyedits.com/img/smilies/cool3bluekeys.png

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#45 2019-05-07 15:01:07

Anatoly
Member
From: Germany, Bavaria, Munich
Joined: 2015-07-31
Posts: 5,957

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

2B55B5G TNG wrote:

Also, I still prefer lynching a person, we may lynch a mafia or SK if we’re very lucky. And if we lynch a town, we can know his/her role, so we can be more sure about the remaining roles. But not lynching means losing a chance to lynch a mafia or SK. So I think we should lynch someone today.

No-one used his night action today.  We don't want to lynch anyone who has a green coloured role. And that makes 9 players who shouldn't be lynched.

9/13 = 0.692.. = ca. 70%

If this night two people die, even if town, next day  7/11 = 0.(63) = 64%. If we lynched a townie today: 6/11 = 0.(54) = 55% which actually makes sense. But still. Today there are 9 towns. This means we will lose 33% of the towns' population over a range of one cycle (day and night). This is NOT something, personally I don't, want to achieve. If we fail to get information next day the probability comes to the following:

If the vigilante is alive, he will be trying to use his powers twice. The SK will have a pretty high chance to hit the mafia. The mafia will hit a town. This will result to 2~3 deaths: 1 mafia and 2 town (likely to), 3 town (if we're REALLY UNLUCKY) or 2 mafia and 1 town, what is highly hard to achieve. 2 mafia (if we're REALLY LUCKY), 2 town (if we're UNLUCKY), 1 mafia and 1 town (if we're REALLY UNLUCKY), this will keep one mafia member in day 3, which seems to be normal, but we still achieve a lose of ~50% of all players.

There's also the possibility for a risky game:

One Lynch today,
with all powers in the night: 3 deaths:
3 players (day Lynch + night actions) will be very likely to end the game too soon.

There's some other behind-thinking calculations I made, but their not that worthy to be listened.

RailMat

Typos don't count, but rule #11 your word is the last, so I won't say anything, right now. I won't say anything, anymore. About that... I will like: Shhh! I won't talk.. About that..

2B55B5G TNG wrote:

Wow this is such a long post from Anatoly, maybe I’m dumb, but I still don’t understand why you suspect Mutantdevle. You said you don’t want to lynch a town, but for me it still seems like Mutantdevle is town, can you explain clearly please?

mutantdevle wrote:
NorwegianboyEE wrote:

I think the main question we should ask ourselves for day 1 is whether we should lynch or not.

Yes yes yes yes yes yes yes.

Wait, how many players are there?

*checks*

13? Okay. Yes yes yes yes yes.


NorwegianboyEE wrote:

Personally back then i was for ending the day early, but i'm not so sure this time.

There is a huge difference between not lynching day 1 and ending the day early. I can understand if people want to oppose a day 1 lynch on mere principle, but under no circumstances should anyone be wanting to end the day early.

He simply interrupted the fight between TaskManager and Norwegianboy.

Ah yes, TaskManager and Norwegian have been fighting, so pretty much they're not mafia together.

If me being correct, TaskManager is either SK or town.

peace wrote:

pretty sure if im rihgt if a orle blocker blocks SK SK kills him instead of choosen target and not both

RailMatt, I think you should list all role cards in the OP.

Serial killer

You are aligned with yourself.

Every night you may !kill an another player.

You are immune for nightkills and role blocks. If a roleblocker blocks you, you will kill them instead of your chosen target.

You win when you are the only living player in town

according to his role cards


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#46 2019-05-07 15:02:49

Anatoly
Member
From: Germany, Bavaria, Munich
Joined: 2015-07-31
Posts: 5,957

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Ah, yes, if I'm seen as dangerous I will be killed this night, so if I'm correct, I will die the next 2 nights for sure

@DOCTOR: there is no need to protect me, I'm powerless...


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#47 2019-05-07 15:04:07

Anatoly
Member
From: Germany, Bavaria, Munich
Joined: 2015-07-31
Posts: 5,957

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Oh wait and (sorry for double post),

but

TaskManager wrote:
Anatoly wrote:

That picture looks fake and/or rigged!
!lynch Anatoly

I swear it was the first try, I just enter google "random number", 1 to 13, and received 9...


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#48 2019-05-07 15:35:11

RailMat
Formerly MatthijsFidder
From: Emmen (NL)
Joined: 2017-05-22
Posts: 1,341

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

Prodded GreenyMix and ILikeTofuuJoe for inactivity

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#49 2019-05-07 15:36:09

TaskManager
Formerly maxi123
From: i really should update this
Joined: 2015-03-01
Posts: 7,340

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

anatoly how is interrupting the "fight" between norwegian and myself a scum trait and how can you conclude anyone's alignment from that when it is literally a day 1 **** holy crap
at this point it does seem like youre trying to get mutant out of the game with this parody of an accusation because hes a stronger player and now im also more confident that your "random" picture is actually rigged and isn't just a ****, but a purposeful attempt to get a wagon on him.


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previous signature by drstereos

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#50 2019-05-07 15:47:11

Anatoly
Member
From: Germany, Bavaria, Munich
Joined: 2015-07-31
Posts: 5,957

Re: Mafia 24 [Day 5]

TaskManager wrote:

anatoly how is interrupting the "fight" between norwegian and myself a scum trait and how can you conclude anyone's alignment from that when it is literally a day 1 **** holy crap
at this point it does seem like youre trying to get mutant out of the game with this parody of an accusation because hes a stronger player and now im also more confident that your "random" picture is actually rigged and isn't just a ****, but a purposeful attempt to get a wagon on him.

You saw me playing my first mafia? You modelled me there.
You saw me playing my second mafia? You said I'm the problem of the universe.
You see me playing my third mafia? Instead of saying that I'm trash, while I'm not, give me advises. I talked to someone that day. He was the only one who supported me that day, and I am thankful. Only thanks to him I won't give up and work with my mafia skills and something even greater than just mafia.

I'm not mafia, and I have no idea how to prove that, but looks like you don't read my messages. Maybe you think different, and that's normal. When I made that thread, and asked to PM me, anyone who has trouble with me. Luka did. And I see this as a great sign that we both may still become friend (or non-enemies in any how), you didn't. You say I'm bad, and annoying, but instead of helping me to change, you throw all my mistakes into me. Also this is a game and I'm not going to discuss here your problems with me.

RailMat wrote:

Prodded GreenyMix and ILikeTofuuJoe for inactivity

Dude, 20 hours passed, give them time...


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