Mafia 13 game [TOWN WINS!]

mutantdevle · 2017-08-15 19:37:19

And by fully believe he is town and owe him my life

I mean:

I fully believe he is the doctor and I owe him my life

mutantdevle · 2017-08-15 20:28:37

Processor wrote:

Maybe I'm reading too much into the out of the game discussion that has happened between you and luka.
You were probably not 100% sure about Lukas role and thats why you questioned it.

Exactly, not to mention that after I received that information I did my best to play the game as if I did not know it to minimise that affect.

Pretty much all of my actions towards and about Luka have been made with ignorance to the outside game drama.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-15 20:50:30

Processor wrote:

I still feel weird that Luka has not yet been killed since he has been defenseless.

I also feel a little off. I was so certain that Luka would die tonight, and whilst I am glad he survived, it does raise a few questions. My only thought would be that perhaps they don't want to seem predictable and go for the most obvious choice?

Processor wrote:

I also wonder why Diff was picked by mafia (assuming they didn't target themselves)...

My only guess to why Diff was killed was that he was sorta linked with Jawapa. As soon as we knew Jawapa was town I think that completely cleared Diff as also being town and as a result he would definitely not make a lynch target. Whereas by not killing Luka there is still obviously some suspicions on him. Why they would choose Diff over any other people considered town by most people I don't know. We must remember that jkdrip had some part in that decision so maybe we could discover what he was likely to do based on the things he has said?

Also what do you mean by "assuming they didn't target themselves"? I can't tell if you are referring to Diff or the Mafia but either way I don't really see how any of them could target themselves.

AlphaJon wrote:

I'm 90% sure that there is only 1 mafia left, which will make finding the last one easier, as he can be the only one killing. However, there are a lot of unknown things regarding those neutral roles or remaining PRs. The second kill may be a serial killer, a vigilante or something related to JaWapa.

My first thought was that it was a bodyguard but then I realised how stupid that was since Diff is not a bodyguard. And I'm fairly certain it wasn't a vigilante as jkdrip's throat was slit which is how the SK tends to kill. In comparison the vigilante almost always kills with a gun.

AlphaJon wrote:

About Gosha: @everyone voting him: what are your reasons? Why gosha in particular? I don't understand what's happening. (Yes I'm on my way towards being the village idiot)

No one is currently voting Gosha. It was just brought up that his behaviour is odd at best.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-15 23:39:51

jkdip's throat was slit. Vigilantes shoot people. I don't get why there's much debate here since, unless Maxi has created his own roles, jkdrip definitely died to the knife blade held by a SK.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 09:06:16

Evilbunny wrote:

So my plan for town victory is this.
Lynch Slabdrill today.
I track Gosha.
Alphajon blocks Processor.
We use the info from either me or alpha to lynch either Gosha or Proc. Both of us can't die because Luka will protect one of us. @Luka I wouldn't say which of us you are going to protect, we both can have useful info, I suggest looking below and seeing who you think would be able to help the most.
scum = either mafia or SK, I don't think it matters at this point
▼Possibility 1
Case 1: Slab and proc are scum
Nobody dies, we know it is proc because he was roleblocked. We lynch proc. Town Win.
▼possibility 2
Case 2: slab and gosha are scum
1 death. If I live, I'll know gosha visited the person killed. We lynch gosha. Town Win.
If Alpha lives then he can confirm it wasn't proc. You guys lynch gosha. Town Win.
▼possibility 3
Case 3: Slab is innocent: proc is scum
This is where things are tricky. There would only be 1 kill, but that doesn't gaurantee that proc is scum. The killed person could have been targeted by both SK and mafia or Luka saved somebody.
If I live, then I can say whether gosha is scum or not. If yes we lynch him and try to go from there. There will still be 2 or 3 power roles left at this point so I think we can do it.
I think it is important I live if slab is innocent.
▼possibility 4
Case 4: Slab is innocent: gosha is scum
If there are 2 kills after seeing slab is innocent, then I'd say lynch gosha and we can try to get hummerz or devlin the next day.
If there is one kill, again, hope I'm alive I guess.
▼possibility 5
Case 5: Slab is scum with either hummerz or devlin
There will be one kill and if I live I can say it wasn't gosha and we'll know it wasn't proc. Leading us onto either Hummerz or Devlin easily.
▼possibility 6
Case 6: hummerz and devlin are scum
I think we'd basically be screwed if this is true but I really don't see it happening.
I think slabdrill is scum so we are going to be in situation 1 or 2 or 5 which basically guarantee town wins if alpha and luka follow my plan. If slab isn't scum then it is still winnable, we're just going to cut it a little closer.

This is an amazing plan in my opinion, especially from my point of view. From my perspective options 5 and 6 are not possible (I'm willing to vouch for hummerz as well) so that leaves us mainly with options 1 and 2 (if slab is scum).

Processor wrote:

You played your cards wrong the moment you showed us what you were going to do.

Well not really... the plan wouldn't work if we didn't know about it. By stating it to the town it makes sure that Luka and AlphaJon (the 2 other people needed for the plan) are able to go through with it. Giving us a plan was not a bad move.

Do you know what is a bad move though? Giving tactic advice to the SK and Mafia...

Processor wrote:

No kill and no night action from me are not necessarily linked. If SK kills tonight, that will prove that one or two people are town, that makes it harder for SK to hide, hence why they will not kill tonight.

Processor wrote:

Oh yeah I'm sure Gosha will visit someone tonight now that you publicly announced that plan lol.

Processor wrote:

Oh yeah I'm sure the SK would also not skip their kill tonight just to make me look guilty. Your plan is flawed

That was just a stupid thing to do... It was not guaranteed they would have thought of that... I didn't think of it, Hummerz didn't think of it, Evilbunny didn't think of it. Well you've just insured that if the scum did not realise that then they certainly do now. You've just dug the hole of your own grave and put uncertainty into the plan. Unless of course you are the SK in which case you are the SK in which obviously you saying it wouldn't have mattered either way.

Processor wrote:

Well I promise you that there is not going to be a SK kill tonight.

Don't make promises you can't keep. But then again, I'm now in belief that you are the only one who can control this and hence keep the promise.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 12:30:14

Welp time to start lynching all the survivor roles then...

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 13:15:26

hummerz5 wrote:

do not lynch slabdrill.

why? That's a sudden declaration, what gives?

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 14:00:59

!unvote

What makes you so sure it's the wrong decision?

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 17:34:12

Evilbunny wrote:

Hummerz if you have something to say that confirms both you and proc then I think you might as well say it. That would leave us with only 4 uncomfirmed people. Onjit, devlin, slab, and gosha.
Literally anybody could be a target tonight.

What exactly makes people confirmed the role they say they are? A role claim? People can still lie about that. The only people I'd be willing to vote tonight are Slabdrill, Gosha and Proc. Everyone else I either consider to be the role they claim they are or Townie.

Onjit wrote:

Wait a second... since when was EB confirmed?
All they did was claim a role that's hard to disprove, along with two claims of checks that are somewhat meaningless if you think about it.
Claim 1: Proc did not visit anyone [N1]
If Proc is scum, he wouldn't disagree with being told that he did nothing N1 (it'd clear him of suspicions), and if he was town, he wouldn't disagree with the truth (nothing to hide).
Claim 2: Luka visited Alphajon [N2]
This is a very easy claim to make up, as it was known that Luka was the doctor and Alphajon is the roleblocker, so it'd be fairly obvious that Luka would want to protect Alphajon.
---
Just putting it out there, the Tracker is a pretty easy role to fakeclaim, especially in a closed game.

I don't think we need to start turning against each other. I believe Evilbunny's role claim or at the very least I have considered them town since I changed my vote on them on day 1.

Can we just go with Evilbunny's plan? At least that has some structure to it. And if you're worried about Evilbunny being scum and hence is manipulating us here then surely the cop role can just investigate Evilbunny tonight and role claim tomorrow if needed?

@Hummerz I'm still interested as to why you suddenly decided that we shouldn't vote Slabdrill.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 17:36:48

Actually nvm that safe guard of the cop investigating Evilbunny probably wont work. Since our cop is probably exactly the same as the Mafia's one meaning they can only tell if they have a role or not.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 19:09:52

Gosha wrote:

is it save to reveal your town-role now? i see most of the players did

I'd say at this point it would be kinda safe to reveal since the Mafia and SK can't kill every power role can they? And so far they've decided not to kill any... so maybe yeah.

But ask yourself these few things first:

Will revealing your role give us new USEFUL information?
Will revealing your role make you undesirable #1 to the Mafia?
Will revealing your role stop us from lynching you?
Are we going to believe you anyway?

Since there is a bit of suspicion on you I think you should. If we believe you then it should clear your name and narrow down our suspects which would be helpful for the town.

Also @hummerz I can assure you I'm not the serial killer I would have thought you would know that Also you've convinced me to back off on Slabdrill for now and I can see where you're coming from with Onjit. I'm not so sure about Onjit though since I would have thought the Mafia would be in a better position that they are if Onjit was on their side.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 19:56:36

Proc let's be honest here. Regardless of what the results of the night are you are one of the main lynch targets for today and tomorrow. Evilbunny's plan would just to give us more evidence for or against certain lynch targets.

If I were you proc, instead of trying to save your own skin by making excuses for yourself and helping the SK by telling them what they could do to cause a miss lynch, how about try pointing the town in the right direction? If we shouldn't lynch you then who should we lynch? The other main candidates for the next 2 lynches are Gosha, Slabdrill and Onjit. Gosha is the primary one of those 3 but they have alluded to have a power role so that knowledge may save them. That leaves you next in line in my opinion with Slabdrill and Onjit after that.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 19:56:59

Oh I got ninja'd

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 19:58:16

Btw I don't think I support the Slabdrill lynch anymore, I'm not willing to vote for him at this point.

Personally I'd rather have Gosha lynched today. @Evilbunny I assume if we switch the places of Gosha and Slabdrill in your plan it would still work fine?

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 20:01:44

Gosha wrote:

Devlin wrote:
Gosha is the primary one of those 3 but they have alluded to have a power role so that knowledge may save them.
power doesn't equal a scum.
Just like doctor or a police officer

I'm saying that the fact you may have a power role means you may not be scum. If you role claimed it would probably reduce my suspicion of you if I didn't consider it a bluff.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 20:06:56

Processor wrote:

Why did you change your mind Devlin? What changed?

I just read some stuff and in isolation Slabdrill doesn't seem all that scummy after all. His behaviour seems more that he just isn't enthusiastic about the game rather then trying to hurt the town.

He hasn't actually done anything bad, he just hasn't done anything good.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 20:15:05

Processor wrote:

Devlin wrote:
He hasn't actually done anything bad, he just hasn't done anything good.
You can defend everyone else with the same argument though...

I disagree. Gosha and you are the only other 2 people are I am suspicious of. I accept there is a possibility that Onjit is scum but I just don't see it.

Things Gosha has done bad:
Is purposely ambiguous in some of the stuff he says.
Has been pushing against you with little valid justification.

Things you have done bad:
Some of your comments just seem generally hostile.
Told the Serial Killer what they can do to achieve the best result.

You've both done good stuff as well but the fact you have done bad things in the first place is also suspicious.

Anatoly did some bad things in my opinion and so has Luka to an extent. I also considered some of Jawapa's actions to have been bad for the town.

So basically people have been doing directly bad things; Slabdrill's only crime is silence.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 20:17:14

Processor wrote:

We have 3 semi confirmed roles and 2 scum out of the remaining 6 players.
We have a good chance (>80% I think) of winning, by choosing randomly between the remaining 6 players tonight and tomorrow. Unless one of the role claims is fake.
So yeah, pick a random person and continue from there, it can be me, I'll vote for myself if that speeds things up. I win no matter if I'm alive or not
also the doc should please protect the tracker or he'll die and cannot report results which would be lame.

There's 7 players proc you silly

Also are you sure it's the tracker that Luka should protect instead of the role blocker?

There's pros and cons for both. For example ensuring the role blocker lives means we can't prevent deaths whereas the tracker lets deaths happen but can tell us who did it. Personally I think the latter helps us more but I guess it's the town's (or rather Luka's) choice.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 20:17:48

AlphaJon wrote:

I noticed discussion about some plans on what the PRs should do. I'm going to stop you right there. I don't like having my actions predictable to the point where scum can act around it and effectively trap my target, so like previous nights, I'm going to choose someone by myself and reveal it the following day.

So basically you won't follow Evilbunny's plan?

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 20:22:39

Processor wrote:

We aren't discussing what Luka will choose in the end. He should toss a coin or something

That's a good idea. I do think we should keep this plan as unreadable as possible in order to reduce scum influence.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 20:34:21

Processor wrote:

Devlin wrote:
There's 7 players proc you silly
Wat I thought we were 9 ppl and 9-3 = 6

Never mind then I am a stupid. I thought you were referring to the amount of players currently in the game but even then I am failing to count

AlphaJon wrote:

Devlin wrote:
So basically you won't follow Evilbunny's plan?
I don't think having everyone follow his plan is the best idea, because guess what, that kind of plan doesn't work when the opposition also knows it.

We can tweek the plan in certain ways to reduce that impact. For example having Luka flip a coin over who to protect out of you and Evilbunny.

Here's another idea:

Since there is possibly going to be 2 night kills how about we don't lynch anyone today? That way the number of players remaining will remain an odd number which means the town can last for at least 1 more night. The SK and the last Mafia will also have the knowledge that if one of them doesn't kill it will ruin this plan and cause us to have an even number of players anyway. But who will be the one to not kill? Can the trust the other player to let them perform the kill? Ultimately it could end up that neither of them kill. Having no one die is actually good for the town, because it means a free day of investigation.

As for what that investigation will be; let's just assume we stick with Evilbunny's idea but change it a little. With the decision to have a no kill that still leaves us with 4 targets most of the town considers: Onjit, Gosha, Slabdrill and Proc. AlphaJon you could flip and coin to see if you should role block Slabdrill or Onjit and Evilbunny will flip a coin to see if they should watch Proc or Gosha.

This will create uncertainty in both the SK and the Mafia whilst allowing the town to receive the results they desire. If the quick maths I just did is correct, it means we will either end the night knowing who at least 1 scum is OR we will still have an even number of town members which would allow for an extra day of night investigation.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 20:36:11

I was meant to finish that post stating that "OR we will still have an even odd number of town members which would allow for an extra day of night investigation".

I accidentally wrote even instead of odd :/

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 20:51:37

Processor wrote:

Sounds like a good idea. +1
!nolynch

Before voting no lynch you have to remember we need Luka, Evilbunny and AlphaJon to be in on it for it to work. If any one of those 3 decides this isn't a good idea then we can't go through with it.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-16 22:08:44

I've done some thinking and I don't think we actually have to no lynch since that only affects the probability of resulting in an even or odd number of players. Having 1 less day to do things isn't the end of the world but I think no lynching is the safest option but idk. Right now this whole plan possibility is just a confusing mess in my brain. Tomorrow I will write it all down and post it with the maths but for now it is getting late for me and I can only reply on phone.

mutantdevle · 2017-08-17 10:29:18

Hypothosis:

Devlin wrote:

Since there is possibly going to be 2 night kills how about we don't lynch anyone today? That way the number of players remaining will remain an odd number which means the town can last for at least 1 more night. The SK and the last Mafia will also have the knowledge that if one of them doesn't kill it will ruin this plan and cause us to have an even number of players anyway. But who will be the one to not kill? Can the trust the other player to let them perform the kill? Ultimately it could end up that neither of them kill. Having no one die is actually good for the town, because it means a free day of investigation.
As for what that investigation will be; let's just assume we stick with Evilbunny's idea but change it a little. With the decision to have a no kill that still leaves us with 4 targets most of the town considers: Onjit, Gosha, Slabdrill and Proc. AlphaJon you could flip and coin to see if you should role block Slabdrill or Onjit and Evilbunny will flip a coin to see if they should watch Proc or Gosha.
This will create uncertainty in both the SK and the Mafia whilst allowing the town to receive the results they desire. If the quick maths I just did is correct, it means we will either end the night knowing who at least 1 scum is OR we will still have an even number of town members which would allow for an extra day of night investigation.

This plan is kinda possible even if we don't no lynch.

*All of this assumes that Onjit, Proc, Slabdrill and Gosha are the only suspects.

There are 3 results kill wise during the night.
2 deaths, 1 death or no death.

If there are 2 deaths:
- If both players Evilbunny is choosing between kills then we will know who one of them are.
- The person AlphaJon role blocked will become confirmed town.
- If the person Evilbunny chooses does not kill then they will also be confirmed town and the person AlphaJon does not roleblock and the person Evilbunny does not watch are confirmed scum.
Conclusion: We are guaranteed to eliminate a suspect without killing them. We have a chance to catch one of the scum. We have a chance to catch both scum.

If there is 1 death:
- If one of the scum is on Evilbunny's target list and he chooses correctly then we will know who they are.
- If Evilbunny gives no result then both his potential targets will still be suspects.
- Whoever AlpahJon role blocks we will assume to be scum. This will either result in a mislynch or we will get a scum. AlphaJon's other potential target will still be a suspect.
Conclusion: We will probably eliminate a suspect through a no lynch. We have no way of confirming any of the suspects as town. We have a chance to catch 1 scum.

If there are no deaths:
- No one can be confirmed as either town or scum from Evilbunny's night action.
- Whoever AlpahJon role blocks we will assume to be scum. This will either result in a mislynch or we will get a scum. AlphaJon's other potential target will still be a suspect.
Conclusion: We will probably eliminate a suspect through a no lynch. We have no way of confirming any of the suspects as town.

Now, from that it is clear to see that if both the scum kill we will make A LOT of progress. And if they don't kill then we are likely to just lynch whoever is role blocked.

So in theory all the scum have to do to survive is not kill right? Wrong. If one of the scum is one of the people that have the potential to be role blocked then they will know they have a 50% chance of being hung the next day anyway. As a result they would want there to be 2 kills in order to increase the chances that the other scum gets lynched instead of them.
Furthermore, the less they kill the less progress they make. The town will be the only ones to make progress as we will narrow down the suspects through a mislynch until eventually we catch the Mafia. We can literally just keep repeating this plan until we win.

Another reason they may want to kill is to stop the plan from working. If either AlphaJon or Evilbunny die then this plan loses a lot of ground. This is where Luka comes in. Luka will not tell us who he plans to protect, he will just pick or use a RNG to decide between the 2. This means that the scum wont know if their attack will succeed. As a result they will likely want to kill Luka to make sure we can only do this plan once. The problem is they may both end up attacking Luka but only 1 person can kill him, if both of them attack Luka then they have a higher chance of being caught. So one must decide no to attack him. But since they can't talk to each other they can't negotiate who will attack him and as a result they may both decide not to attack him resulting in a win situation for the town.

So basically we don't really have much to lose from this plan. The amount of uncertainty and anxiety this will give to the scum is greatly worth the risk of accidentally lynching 1 Townie. To reduce the effects of the mislynch I think that AlphaJon should choose between the 2 most suspicious people.

So here's what I suggest for if we don't lynch:
AlphaJon should choose or use a RNG to decide between either Gosha or Proc to role block. The reason I suggest it to be these 2 is that they are the most suspicious and whoever AlphaJon picks is probably going to be lynched.
Evilbunny should choose or use a RNG to decide between either Slabdrill or Onjit to watch. Evilbunny's results are more accurate than AlphaJon's.
Luka should choose or us a RNG to decide whether to protect AlphaJon or Evilbunny.

However, I have come to the conclusion that we don't have to go for a no lynch, in fact it is probably better if we do lynch someone.

If we only had 3 suspects then we can get both AlphaJon and Evilbunny to choose or use a RNG to decide between which one they watch or role block. This would work because if they choose the same target then it will confirm their role to us. Whoever AlphaJon role blocks will be the primary suspect if there is no kill. But if Evilbunny also watched them and found they did nothing then we know it was 1 or both of the other 2 suspects. Additionally if Evilbunny found they did visit someone (who wouldn't have died) it would be safe to assume they tried to kill them.
To be honest I think narrowing it down to 3 suspects and using this method will be better than having 4 suspects because it means we will have 2/3 chance of them picking scum rather than a 1/2 chance.

TLDR: we should lynch someone today and then at night AlphaJon and Evilbunny should randomly choose between the remaining 3 suspects to use their night action on whilst Luka randomly chooses which one of the 2 to save.

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Re: Mafia 13 game [TOWN WINS!]

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