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Kaslai

Official Caroler

From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚

Joined: 2015-02-17

Posts: 787

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

So, I'm going to explain it using maths. There was a 1/3 chance of a bulletproof being there. On that bulletproof, mafia has a 1/7 chance of targeting him. That makes it a 1/21 chance, which is ~5%. And a 5% chance of a 1 night delay isn't that much powerful.

But the maths break down when you take into account the fact that if the bulletproof did a valid counterclaim, the mafia then knows who it is... Which then makes the mafia 100% likely to NOT attack that person.

Anak

Guest

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

Oh darn I forgot about that consort

you sexy devil~

Roleblock me daddy

AlphaJon

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From: Who knows

Joined: 2015-07-21

Posts: 1,297

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

But the maths break down when you take into account the fact that if the bulletproof did a valid counterclaim, the mafia then knows who it is... Which then makes the mafia 100% likely to NOT attack that person.

I'd rather have a confirmed town than a small chance to gain a night.

Anak

Guest

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

But the maths break down when you take into account the fact that if the bulletproof did a valid counterclaim, the mafia then knows who it is... Which then makes the mafia 100% likely to NOT attack that person.

I'd rather have a confirmed town than a small chance to gain a night.

A counterclaim would give us a clear and a scum, though, and would tell us which setup we're playing. I think that all would work well for us.

AlphaJon

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From: Who knows

Joined: 2015-07-21

Posts: 1,297

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

Also, a doctor claiming bulletproof would have been epic, but sadly I believe (s)he didn't think of it

Processor

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Joined: 2015-02-15

Posts: 2,246

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

But the maths break down when you take into account the fact that if the bulletproof did a valid counterclaim, the mafia then knows who it is... Which then makes the mafia 100% likely to NOT attack that person.

I'd rather have a confirmed town than a small chance to gain a night.

A counterclaim would give us a clear and a scum, though, and would tell us which setup we're playing. I think that all would work well for us.

Exactly, I also believe it would have been benefitial for someone to hardclaim if they were a PR. Maybe not if they are a doctor, but otherwise...

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TaskManager

Formerly maxi123

From: i really should update this

Joined: 2015-03-01

Posts: 9,463

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

wow
this is confusing
yes, alphajon's fake claim was a very smart scum plan but i dont understand why would he as a scum pull that claim back

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Bobithan

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Joined: 2015-02-15

Posts: 4,476

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

If Alpha is scum he's definitely not the consort. I doubt the mafia would make their power role do something as risky as that. I don't think he'd do that as a town PR either. I'd be willing to bet he's either a citizen or a goon, which really doesn't help much but WHATEVEr

also keep in mind he did say in his claim for nobody else to claim their roles, so really I have no idea what he was trying to accomplish with that gambit. I guess he did say later he was expecting the BP to counterclaim but I really don't see why the BP would do that if they were actually here. I'd imagine as the BP you would want the mafia to shoot you to buy the town more time, so counterclaiming would be counterproductive and wouldn't help the town at all, especially if you're counterclaiming against what is supposed to be a townie. It seems like a dumb plan, and for what? Eliminating two choices? It didn't even work, there's no way to know if there even is a BP or not. I don't see what any town members would seek to gain from a play like that.

It would make sense if it was a scum plan. Bait a BP counterclaim, then back down claiming it to be a town plan all along just to find out the game structure. I mean, what kind of scum would do that, right?

Either it was a scum plan or Alpha just made a really dumb play, and I think Alpha is smarter than that.

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AlphaJon

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Posts: 1,297

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

If I wanted to force out roles, I would have claimed Sheriff pretending to look for doctor heals while I look for people. But I went for bulletproof because it's fundamentally the only PR who doesn't risk death by claiming.
You all need to think carefully. I'll explain here my complete reasoning.

I am in mafia 7 game.
There is a Bulletproof(33%), or there isn't(67%).

I claim Bulletproof

If there is one:
- Someone counterclaims(that's the one I expected to almost surely happen in this case), making him confirmed town -> one less person to look for, plus has passive immunity. Also we can exclude 2 rows and 2 columns, and keep column A and row 3.
OR
- He doesn't counterclaim, making the overall thing useless. (This one has a <5% chance to happen if you ask me, because why would the legit one not counterclaim?)

If there is none:
- Obviously noone counterclaims. I retract my claim ,which I could easily have kept until the Sheriff finds a mafia and claims in doing so (or a doctor but that would be dumb of him), or indefinitely if there was none. I didn't.
-- Result: there is no column A or row 3. Sheriff and doctor each get a 50% chance of being there, including 25% chance to be together. My current guess is on row 1, though, which is basically a heal+ anti-mafia kill (Jailkeeper isn't grouped with any other town PR, so the only thing he can block are mafia kills by targeting the mafia or the target) ---> We are in this case, I'm 95% sure of it(about half-sure for row 1).

Misc: I actually tried to make something good out of D1, which is usually just funchat and a random vote. Obviously, it wouldn't suddenly make mafia appear, but it helps reduce the possibilities. It's still better than any pure random solution.

Anak

Guest

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

I'm curious as to what would have happened if there was a bulletproof. I don't envision that would have ended well for you, AlphaJon.

Bobithan

Member

Joined: 2015-02-15

Posts: 4,476

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

This one has a <5% chance to happen if you ask me, because why would the legit one not counterclaim

Bulletproof exists to buy Town time. Counterclaiming would basically nullify the role entirely, since the mafia can just let them live until the endgame easily. idk why they would counterclaim. I think the possibility of there being a BP is just the same as it was before.

I do appreciate you starting up discussion though

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Onjit

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Joined: 2015-02-15

Posts: 9,708

Website

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

This seems to me to be a hastily thought out gambit.

Who is the one behind it?

- AlphaJon, as the Consort, trying to find A/2
- AlphaJon, as the Goon, trying to find A/3
- AlphaJon's Partner, as the Consort, trying to find A/2 without risking themself
^These would also attempt to out the real Bulletproof

- Alphajon, as Citizen, trying to find some information.
- AlphaJon, as Tracker/Jailkeeper, trying to confirm A/3

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Onjit

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

mfw people post while i'm writing

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AlphaJon

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From: Who knows

Joined: 2015-07-21

Posts: 1,297

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

I'm curious as to what would have happened if there was a bulletproof. I don't envision that would have ended well for you, AlphaJon.

I actually believe this setup to have good enough players to understand that I wouldn't blindy claim a role just so I become "towny". The only non-counterable claim would have been Tracker, and that's only if there is one Consort, since a 2-goon setup basically spans the whole grid except consort.
There's no way I would have done the same in a mafia6-like player setup.

There are major flaws with the mafia point of view, also.
- This is risking one mafia for one less immediate target.
- The mafia cannot know in any way which roles may be ot not be there, except tracker if there is a consort.
- I doubt the 2 mafias would agree to such a plan (they have daychat).
- In case of a sheriff being there, it would almost force him to check the guy who claimed -> gg wp one less mafia
- Even after all that, keeping the claim is way less risky than reverting it, because there are 3 setups where this makes sense for everyone (row 1 included because the only PR is column-crossed with bulletproof)

Kaslai

Official Caroler

From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚

Joined: 2015-02-17

Posts: 787

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

because why would the legit one not counterclaim?

Because counterclaiming would be unproductive. As I said, claiming bulletproof citizen literally nullifies the role entirely.

AlphaJon

Member

From: Who knows

Joined: 2015-07-21

Posts: 1,297

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

I have to admit that I shouldn't have revert-claimed that early. Waiting D2 would have given better results, but at this point having someone else find out (eg a Sheriff found mafia and claimed) would have doomed me.
Now, if I was a sheriff or doctor, I'd make the claim too, in order to have mafia not target me, while I investigate/heal safely. And at the same time, noone would counterclaim because the only one who could is doctor. I'd keep the claim in that case.

I'll be as open as possible. Ask me any question I can answer, and I'll do so. Except hardclaiming my actual role, I keep that as a last resort.

Kaslai

Official Caroler

From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚

Joined: 2015-02-17

Posts: 787

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

Ask me any question

Are you mafia?

AlphaJon

Member

From: Who knows

Joined: 2015-07-21

Posts: 1,297

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

Are you mafia?

No, and obviously, everyone here is going to answer the same

TaskManager

Formerly maxi123

From: i really should update this

Joined: 2015-03-01

Posts: 9,463

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

did you actually think that the real bulletproof would counterclaim considering that would be just stupid as mafia would avoid killing him + you told everyone to not hardclaim?

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AlphaJon

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Joined: 2015-07-21

Posts: 1,297

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

did you actually think that the real bulletproof would counterclaim considering that would be just stupid as mafia would avoid killing him + you told everyone to not hardclaim?

Honestly, I really considered the bullerproof to counter me. I specifically asked for the other roles to not claim, because I don't want to have them die to the mafia.

@Everyone: why do you consider a real bulletproof claim a bad thing? That's one confirmed town, and by confirming people you get mafia.

Anak

Guest

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

@Everyone: why do you consider a real bulletproof claim a bad thing? That's one confirmed town, and by confirming people you get mafia.

There are good and bad sides to it. Mafia probably won't bother going for the bulletproof when they know who it is, bc it'll waste a night, and it'll give town more time to find them out. On the other hand, we'll have a clear, and one that has more of a chance of staying alive. As well as that, if there were counterclaims, we'd have a possible mafia.

BUT, it looks like there aren't any bulletproofs at all, so we've eliminated 2 possible combinations.

I think your plan for this is riddled with holes. There are a lot of cases where it simply wouldn't have worked. You've got us started up though, so I'm glad for that.

Calicara

Member

Joined: 2015-02-16

Posts: 932

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

My brain cant math, but hey somethings happening! I've been following along I just don't have much to say. I'm gonna !nolynch and pray I live to see another day.

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Calicara

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Joined: 2015-02-16

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

I meant to use this smiley not the mad one lol.

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Kaslai

Official Caroler

From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚

Joined: 2015-02-17

Posts: 787

Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

The conversation has hit an awkward silence...

I'm willing to just call AlphaJon the Village Idiot, and I'm still standing by my nolynch.

Onjit

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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

I don't think we have enough information to make a lynch, despite Alpha's attempts to start conversation.

Also, it's better to have even numbers of town.

!nolynch

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