Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)

Processor · 2016-04-07 20:20:09

Anak wrote:

AlphaJon wrote:
Kaslai wrote:
But the maths break down when you take into account the fact that if the bulletproof did a valid counterclaim, the mafia then knows who it is... Which then makes the mafia 100% likely to NOT attack that person.
I'd rather have a confirmed town than a small chance to gain a night.
A counterclaim would give us a clear and a scum, though, and would tell us which setup we're playing. I think that all would work well for us.

Exactly, I also believe it would have been benefitial for someone to hardclaim if they were a PR. Maybe not if they are a doctor, but otherwise...

Processor · 2016-04-09 15:47:50

Hi,

Oh my god.

AlphaJon and Onjit are suspecious.

I'll write my analysis in a second.

Onjit

Processor · 2016-04-09 18:31:48

Analysis on AlphaJon v1 by Processor

This analysis will be a bit different. In game 6 I focused a lot on the interactions between players, it is too early to do that here right now.

So, AlphaJon decides to claim bulletproof, and after a short time, unclaims.

AlphaJon wrote:

I actually believe this setup to have good enough players to understand that I wouldn't blindy claim a role just so I become "towny".

Your claim seemed to be exactly for getting towncred, until you were somewhat called out for it. SmittyW has also made vague references to being a PR which probably scared you to revert that claim.
Honestly, I find it hard to believe you actually wanted to unclaim at one point, it seems more like something you thought of as soon as you saw you made a mistake...
I believe you are actually a good enough player to know to wait longer before unclaiming, I think the cause of your unclaim is something else: a slip.

You then start explaining you unclaim by using falicious logic. Let me point out the most obvious ones:

Fallacy 1:

AlphaJon wrote:

So, I'm going to explain it using maths. There was a 1/3 chance of a bulletproof being there. On that bulletproof, mafia has a 1/7 chance of targeting him. That makes it a 1/21 chance, which is ~5%. And a 5% chance of a 1 night delay isn't that much powerful.

You make it sound like bulletproof is useless. No, it is NOT.
On the 2/3rds chance we don't have a BP, we will have another PR with the same value.
How valuable is a bulletproof? As valuable as a doctor, as row 3 and C show us:
3: Bulletproof / Tracker / Goon
C: Doctor / Tracker / Goon

The probability of mafia targetting a bulletproof is either 1/7th (he/she can increase this probability with their behavior, see SmittyW.) or 0%. Nothing in between.

This probability increases every night.

Fallacy 2:

AlphaJon wrote:

Unless the actual bulletproof didn't bother counterclaiming, which I doubt, there is no bulletproof

AlphaJon wrote:

Processor wrote:
I can see a sherrif revealing themselves. Or maybe even the doctor, a 1v1 PR for Scum trade isn't THAT bad.
Pls, no. Having them reveal would have been doom. And the players in here are quite good. I don't see anyone here claiming these 2.

Our doctor roleclaiming causes him to die that night, rendering his ability useless. Our bulletproof claiming causes him to never be targetted, making his ability useless.

Scum never attacking BP means that they will get the other PR sooner, but in the case of a doctor, his claim would cause scum to waste one night's kill on him.
Therefore, a bulletproof roleclaiming is WORSE than a doctor claiming.

Should a bulletproof/doctor still roleclaim? If it helps town lynch a scum (AlphaJon) then yes!
Even if AlphaJon isn't a consort but goon, it would prevent the other consort from using their PR ability, essentially turning them into a goon.

How much is consort's ability worth? As much as a heal. Compare B and 2:
2: Doctor/Sherrif/Consort
B: Citizen/Sherrif/Goon

A doctor vs consort trade is super favorable for town, because you can simplify it to a citizen vs goon trade, which is always favorable, because it gives us a free mislynch.
A bulletproof vs consort trade is less favorable, but still good for town.

Fallacy 3:

AlphaJon wrote:

There is a Bulletproof(33%), or there isn't(67%).

Anak wrote:

I'm curious as to what would have happened if there was a bulletproof. I don't envision that would have ended well for you, AlphaJon.

Anak puts it quite well.

Causing a mislynch brings us 33% closer to losing this game! (We can only afford two mislynches)
Assuming we would lynch AlphaJon if a counterclaim pops up: In which of the 6 variations of the game will a mislynch happen?
A: Other bulletproof counterclaims
B: Sherrif counterclaims
C: Doctor counterclaims
2: Sherrif/Doctor counterclaim
3: Other bulletproof counterclaims

Only in option 1 nobody would counterclaim. The chance of a claim is 84%. No townie would risk bringing their town 33% closer to defeat 84% of the time.

Fallacy 4:

AlphaJon wrote:

Now, in order to help identify the setup we're in, I'm going to make a claim.

I'm going to argue that the setup we are in is only important for scum, not town.

Here's why:
- Doctor and tracker should roleclaim as soon as they find a scum, they wont wait to find the next scum because they might die any time
- Scum on the other hand, can adjust their behavior if they know who they are dealing with.

Fallacy 5:

AlphaJon wrote:

But I went for bulletproof because it's fundamentally the only PR who doesn't risk death by claiming.

His utility dies as soon as he claims, he is no longer a true PR. Do you know who else doesn't risk death by claiming? Scum. Claiming BP is the safest option for scum in this game.

Fallacy 6:

AlphaJon wrote:

- He doesn't counterclaim, making the overall thing useless. (This one has a <5% chance to happen if you ask me, because why would the legit one not counterclaim?)

The standard level of significance is not even applicible here, wtf? Even if it was, here's an XKCD: https://xkcd.com/882/

Slip 1:

AlphaJon wrote:

Also, a doctor claiming bulletproof would have been epic, but sadly I believe (s)he didn't think of it

This make you sound oddly certain of a doc existing...
Setup 2? Seems like it...

Slip 2:

AlphaJon wrote:

Except hardclaiming my actual role, I keep that as a last resort.

Is this your way of saying "psst I am a PR but don't tell anyone"?

Seriously, this seems to imply you aren't a citizen, so what are you? Who would actually claim bulletproof as another PR? That's a super risky move... Unless, yknow, you are scum.

---

The explanations AlphaJon has been giving aren't really convincing.
Therefore I will !vote AlphaJon.

Processor · 2016-04-10 12:53:55

In many different sections of my analysis I explained why I believe that AlphaJon is scum. His claim is stupid no matter who he is, but if you at it closely, you see a lot off scum motivation, and no town motivation. There were exactly 0 benefits for town in either outcome, so it is ignorant if you just close your eyes and call him a VI.

Calicara wrote:

Processors analysis was interesting... But at this point it's still hard to say. For all we know Proc is Mafia trying to get a town lynched.

Um, what?

First of all, this is a logical fallacy! https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/ad-hominem
Please don't do that again D:

I never asked anyone to trust me, you should read what I say (I used logic by the way!), think for yourself and don't follow anyone blindly.

You completely dodge the content of my post, you describe it all with "interesting" (my post has 1000+ words in it, please). Overall it comes across as if you are trying to defend AlphaJon without delivering any valid arguments. You also go on to vote nolynch even though we already explained why that is a terrible terrible idea:

maxi123 wrote:

Eh there's nothing more to talk about so far but im not giving away the discussion time by simply voting for a nolynch.

Let me also point out that in the last game, a lot of scum (iirc: W24, Luka501, Anak) voted for nolynch.

It would be nice if you could explain in a not-so-vague way why you think that my reads are not valid.

Processor · 2016-04-10 16:51:44

I like how AlphaJon casually excluded himself...

Processor · 2016-04-10 17:06:49

AlphaJon wrote:

Processor wrote:
SmittyW has also made vague references to being a PR which probably scared you to revert that claim.
Wat? No, he didn't, not to my knowledge at least.

This is the probably most important post D1:

SmittyW. wrote:

I hope I am protected tonight...

So please.

AlphaJon wrote:

No. I already explained why several times. This one's almost going against me just for the sake of it.

I also explained why I disagree with it. Just because a doctor dies doesn't mean it is a worse outcome than a BP dying. Both roles are going to lose their utility.

AlphaJon wrote:

Why is it so? For example, if we are in the middle row with the consort out, the sheriff can freely investigate while the doctor protects him (=> See Bobithan in game 6)

Sure, but a BP claim is not going to help a sheriff know this. If anything, it only proves the absence of a sheriff AND doctor.

Both the doctor and sheriff, when given, know that there is no BP in town, your claim does not help them!

In general, yes it would help, but you did not have this in mind when you were claiming BP!

For scum on the other hand... its a different story. They will know the exact setup and are able to adjust their play. (They know the decisive information: presence of a consort or the lack thereof)

AlphaJon wrote:

What makes this a slip, really? The sentence basically sums up to "If I was doctor, I would claim bulletproof"

The wording was odd, that's all. I won't look into it that much, there are more important aspects.

AlphaJon wrote:

Btw, I already claimed:
Ice Mage: Every night you may create ice cream to give to another player, selaying his night action by 10 minutes. You are immune to the Water Mage's rain, because you live in an Igloo. The Earth Mage is immune to your ice creams, because he only likes to eat dirt.

I'm pretty sure my points against you were super serious, this has no place in this discussion.

AlphaJon wrote:

On the upside, I probably won't get nightkilled until late-game, if at all.

Huh?

Processor · 2016-04-11 14:46:54

AlphaJon wrote:

I'm sure you would understand, if you place yourself from the mafia perspective. Like they are going to kill the one who could potentially get lynched

Ah that makes sense, but then... So you are admitting being scummy? Are you intentionally trying to be scummy?!

AlphaJon wrote:

You're being overconfident over what I may be, and it seems like nothing I say can convince you otherwise.

This confirms that the issues that I have pointed are logically sound. Otherwise you would be able to disagree with me using concrete examples.

I have been called out for my overconfidence multiple times in the past games, it's the way I play. (proof, I'm sure there are countless examples of this)
However, it turns out you never complained it in previous games, what makes you think I am scum this time? Is it because I am attacking you? That's biased.
You're trying to defend yourself by being aggressive, I really dislike that.

You are currently the scummiest person in town, you agree with that yourself. Then you think my behavior is not natural if I try to lynch you for it? What kind of logic is that?

You're one of the best players of this game, and were it not for all these obvious scum hints I see all over the place, I would be very reluctant to vote for you. Your responses aren't too convincing either...

AlphaJon wrote:

I believe you are a mafia member who uses me as a scapegoat/way to reduce the number of townies.

You can literally copy paste that for anyone who votes for you.

You just completely ignore my perfectly logical arguments and make a sudden accusation without really backing it up.
Don't tell me that's how you expect town to find scum, because if we just start making blank accusations we will get nowhere.

Processor · 2016-04-11 15:41:51

AlphaJon wrote:

Proc, you probably don't realise it, but if I get lynched, you will probably get lynched D2.

That's okay, we can afford a mislynch after a scum kill

Seriously tho, what is this going to mean? Ooooo I am so scared I should probably back off... no!
First you vote on me for no real reason then you threaten me like that?! Oh please...

I am confident in my reads, if anyone thinks I am being inaccurate, please call me out on it.

AlphaJon wrote:

Oh, and last game, I didn't say anything because you were actually right. I was with Onjit and Luka504, remember?

This means you agree with me that I am not behaving any differently this game.

I was town last game, so how can you claim I am scum this time?

AlphaJon wrote:

@Kaslai: you're putting yourself in a bad position by following him.

Really?

Yet another attempt to scare someone to unvote you.

Processor · 2016-04-11 19:32:30

^ Never trust SmittyW.'s votecounts.

WE HAVE TWO HOURS LEFT TO VOTE!!!!!!!

AlphaJon wrote:

Processor wrote:
AlphaJon wrote:
Proc, you probably don't realise it, but if I get lynched, you will probably get lynched D2.
That's okay, we can afford a mislynch after a scum kill
Duh, if I was scum you know well this wouldn't apply anymore. Anyway, I actually hope you'll be protected, in case you are town. Because your death is going to feed the debate even more, especially if I stay alive.

You are probably making this claim just to convince us to stop voting you. Unfortunately, you need better reasoning that just blank threats.

Processor · 2016-04-11 20:23:57

We can lynch, lynching is better for us as town. Otherwise town will have an odd number of players tomorrow and that is disadvantageous for us.

Processor · 2016-04-11 20:32:31

Number of players, not town players.

If we lynch we will have two deaths tonight, therefore the number of players tomorrow will be odd again.

Processor · 2016-04-11 20:35:50

Let me put it in another way:

To lose right now, we need to mislynch, mislynch, mislynch.
If we nolynch today, we need to mislynch, mislynch to lose the game.

So by nolynching, you are essentially giving away a chance of mislynching.

Processor · 2016-04-13 12:20:29

So it is confirmed that we don't have a consort. That's nice.

On the other hand it is disastrous that we lost our tracker. :/
Also unfortunate that we lost alphajon...

I still don't understand alphajon's statements about him not wanting to roleclaim but oh well.

I recommend you to look at calicara because I don't like her for hammering a vote while simultaneously rejecting of any responsibility by saying I am solely responsible for the alphajon lynch, even though my vote was one of many and nobody else even bothered to make another case. The hammer itself wasn't a big deal because we were so close to the deadline, but she should still not judge my allignment based one Lynch's result.

Sent form my phone.

Processor · 2016-04-13 15:09:34

Calicara wrote:

Besides all I was saying before is just because you write textbook analysis =/= you being town.

Alright, then I must have misinterpreted your statement.

On AlphaJon:
My first vote on someone is always a pressure vote, then I wait to see their defense. If I like their defense (See: Evilbunny or Creature in game 6) I will just back off.

AlphaJon's defense was very bad.
He kept giving us worthless arguments and put himself in a worse and worse position.

Sorry for my walls of text being so long, I should work on that.
I hope I'm able to deliver move accurate reads today.

/defense

Processor · 2016-04-13 23:48:18

Calicara wrote:

Last 6 games: No one takes day 1 posts seriously
Game 7: day 1 posts matter

I don't recall us having D1 lynches in the first 5 games.

Calicara wrote:

Processor is probably town. Creature is probably scum. So last night Creature kills Kaslai. Creature, being scum, aligns himself with Processor to look like a good town. Then Creature brings up my joke vote to incriminate me for the death of Kaslai. Which by the by, killing someone you voted for the previous day would be just about one of the dumbest strategies...

Um, explain why killing someone you voted for the last day is a dumb strategy.

Calicara wrote:

However, without a response from Processor, I only see Creature as the scummy one and not him. An alignment only works when both parties mutually agree to help each other. Creature might be scum, but I could hardly say the same of Processor.

Uh, you can't call out creature for buddying with me and then simultaneously say that I am town, lol.

I wouldn't base my reads solely on a single town read, not at all if you agree with the person you are voting for.
I'll look at creature cloely tomorrow, I haven't see anything odd yet.

Creature wrote:

Processor
Where's your analysis on Onjit you promised?

I only promised an analysis on AlphaJon iirc, but I also did call out Onjit for being scummy.

It basically boils down to Onjit persuading a nolynch, but it is no longer worth considering since AlphaJon turned out not to be scum.

I'm off for today, keep up the good work creature, get this town talking.

I'll post what I find tomorrow.

Processor · 2016-04-16 11:38:26

Hi,

Been a little busy lately, sorry.

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