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#26 2016-04-07 20:05:27
- Kaslai
- Official Caroler
- From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚
- Joined: 2015-02-17
- Posts: 787
Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)
So, I'm going to explain it using maths. There was a 1/3 chance of a bulletproof being there. On that bulletproof, mafia has a 1/7 chance of targeting him. That makes it a 1/21 chance, which is ~5%. And a 5% chance of a 1 night delay isn't that much powerful.
But the maths break down when you take into account the fact that if the bulletproof did a valid counterclaim, the mafia then knows who it is... Which then makes the mafia 100% likely to NOT attack that person.
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#27 2016-04-08 00:35:02
- Kaslai
- Official Caroler
- From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚
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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)
because why would the legit one not counterclaim?
Because counterclaiming would be unproductive. As I said, claiming bulletproof citizen literally nullifies the role entirely.
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#30 2016-04-09 20:21:18
- Kaslai
- Official Caroler
- From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚
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Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)
All of those fallacy explanations are spot on.
!unvote
I'm willing to take my vote off to ensure the day plays out a little longer, at least.
Is this your way of saying "psst I am a PR but don't tell anyone"?
Seriously, this seems to imply you aren't a citizen, so what are you? Who would actually claim bulletproof as another PR? That's a super risky move... Unless, yknow, you are scum.
Personally, I wouldn't read too much into that, though the phrasing is done in such a way that it might imply that his role might not be citizen.
what if alphajon (assuming he's scum) had to retract the claim under teammate's influence? like, they had a misunderstanding in planning, his teammate went mad and was like "RETRACT THAT CLAIM NOW NUB THEY WONT SUSPECT U ANYWAY CUS DEY THINK DAT WOULD BE 2 SUICIDAL FOR MAFIA 2 DO"
Also a good point.
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#31 2016-04-11 14:57:00
- Kaslai
- Official Caroler
- From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚
- Joined: 2015-02-17
- Posts: 787
Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)
i agree. kaslai and anak weren't very active as well last 2 days
There have also only been 12 posts since my last post, most of which don't need to be replied to.
I'm going to side with Processor on this one. Either Alpha or Proc has to die before day two. Let it be...
!vote AlphaJon
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#32 2016-04-11 15:52:30
- Kaslai
- Official Caroler
- From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚
- Joined: 2015-02-17
- Posts: 787
Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)
@Kaslai: you're putting yourself in a bad position by following him.
We've both been aligned against you this whole time... I don't see how my vote changes that.
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#37 2016-04-11 20:28:55
- Kaslai
- Official Caroler
- From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚
- Joined: 2015-02-17
- Posts: 787
Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)
We can lynch, lynching is better for us as town. Otherwise town will have an odd number of players tomorrow and that is disadvantageous for us.
Your math doesn't hold up.
CURRNETLY:
7 town
2 mafia
MISLYNCH: One town lynched, one town wreck'd by mafia
5 town
2 mafia
LYNCH SCUM: One scum lynched, one town wreck'd by mafia
6 town
1 mafia
NO LYNCH: One town wreck'd by mafia
6 town
2 mafia
The only way we end up with an even amount of town is if we don't mislynch.
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#38 2016-04-11 20:36:12
- Kaslai
- Official Caroler
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- Joined: 2015-02-17
- Posts: 787
Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)
I see. Is that really disadvantageous, though? I thought it was a case where losing one town when the number of players is even is not disadvantageous, whereas losing one when the number of players is odd is disadvantageous.
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#39 2016-04-11 20:37:23
- Kaslai
- Official Caroler
- From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚
- Joined: 2015-02-17
- Posts: 787
Re: Mafia 7 game thread:Matrix 6 (Mafia wins!!!)
Let me put it in another way:
To lose right now, we need to mislynch, mislynch, mislynch.
If we nolynch today, we need to mislynch, mislynch to lose the game.So by nolynching, you are essentially giving away a chance of mislynching.
Oh I see. That actually makes sense.
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