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Calicara

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Joined: 2015-02-16

Posts: 932

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

I leave for half an hour to pack for spring break and all hell breaks loose. Guess I'm under suspicion, that's cool. I think it's funny Rhazz is making all these claims based ok some "information" that only "he" has. Ok, but if there's a mislynch don't look at me.

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Creature

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Joined: 2015-02-15

Posts: 9,658

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

Pyromaniac requested to be replaced.

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This is a false statement.

Onjit

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Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

rip pyro

got bullied out by the master ****

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:.|:;

Kaslai

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Joined: 2015-02-17

Posts: 787

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

My thoughts so far:

Rhaz is almost certainly a Sheriff

Both Rhaz and Cali seem to be awfully invested this late in the game, which seems to often (but not always) be an indicator of town, as scum prefers to go unnoticed at this point.

I'm not getting any scum vibes from Anak or Pyro

Maxi seems be be attempting to just slip by unnoticed right now

Onjit is definitely playing up how favorable of a town member he is right now

Alphajon is quite volatile in his actions. I'm not sure how he is aligned because he seems to be changing his alignment frequently.

Pyromaniac

Official Caroler

Joined: 2015-02-15

Posts: 4,868

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

rip pyro

got bullied out by the master ****

yea he is a master ****, and is not fun to play with at all---

but the real reason I asked to be replaced is because I have no time this week and didn't want to be even less active then I was before

TaskManager

Formerly maxi123

From: i really should update this

Joined: 2015-03-01

Posts: 9,463

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

Maxi seems be be attempting to just slip by unnoticed right now

I don't have anything to say so im not posting
As you can see an entire page was wasted on pointless arguing between Rhaz and Pyro

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Onjit

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Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

....ALRIGHT GUYS

As much fun as it is to throw childish insults at each other, I think we have a few options:

1. We argue for some more, hoping someone slips (they probably won't), and discuss our hunches.

2. Rhaz (who we all agree is like 99% confirmed sheriff) gives us some real evidence, so we can lynch properly.

3. We decide to nolynch again, since the odds will still be in our favour if 1 townie dies (3scum:4town) and since it's very likely that there is a protective town/escort still alive.

▼maths

the maths behind point 3 ( i think it's right )
there are 5 town left.
2 are confirmed citizens
1 is a killer (random cannot be killer)

that leaves the 2 random town (i'll call them PR and PRc because one of them could be a citizen)

the remaining possible PRs are:
sheriff
doctor
escort
medium

since rhaz is prob. sheriff, that leaves:
doctor
escort
medium

for PR (cannot be citizen)
2/3 chance of being able to prevent a killing

for PRc (could be citizen)
1/2 chance of being able to prevent a killing

now, because PR and PRc can't have the same role, the odds of BOTH of them being able to prevent a killing is:
(2/3)x(1/3)=(2/9)
or 22%

the odds of at least ONE of them being able to prevent a killing is:
[(2/3)x(1/3)]+[(1/3)x(2/3)]+[(2/3)x(2/3)] = (8/9)
or 89%

The odds of us mislynching today, putting us at a very serious risk of losing (by putting us at 3town:3scum on D5), is 63%

There's a 89% chance that there is at least one town that can prevent a death the next night.

If we don't lynch today, and let Rhaz try to investigate who the scum are, we will have an advantage in D5.
Rhaz can't be roleblocked, since there is no consort in this game
He probably won't be killed either, since there is a 44% chance that there is a doctor, and a 16% chance that the escort chooses the right person to block
also the witch might f things up but idk at least there won't be a death

tl;dr my best suggestion is a nolynch

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:.|:;

RhazzleFrazzle

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Joined: 2015-11-10

Posts: 4,260

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

I stand by my scumreads, but I see where you're coming from Onjit. After nolynching yesterday, I'm leaning away from making the safe plays though. I'd still rather lynch Kaslai than nolynch. If we nolynch today then all you get is a dead Sheriff and no new information.

Kaslai

Official Caroler

From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚

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Posts: 787

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

I'm still curious as to why you're singling me out.

There has to be some reason other than "I feel like it."

#rhaz4pres

Anak

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Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

If we nolynch today then all you get is a dead Sheriff and no new information.

Onjit did say there might be a doctor, and also you'll have in your will what you haven't told us.

RhazzleFrazzle

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Joined: 2015-11-10

Posts: 4,260

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

I'm not one to bank on RNG to save me from the Mafia. I don't want game 2 to happen again either.

Calicara

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Joined: 2015-02-16

Posts: 932

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

I agree with Rhazz, we can't afford to waste another day with a nolynch. However, I disagree with this decision to lynch Kaslai. There is no proof to back up his claim that Kaslai is scum, and Kaslai doesn't come off as particularly scummy to me.

Instead I'm going to use my vote toward Anak. Why?

He plays pretty neutral, but then easily hops onto pressure votes: http://forums.everybodyedits.com/viewto … 33#p586033

Here he alludes to possibly knowing who the mafia was targeting: http://forums.everybodyedits.com/viewto … 78#p586678

Although later he claimed that he "read it wrong", or did he? Perhaps it's a part of his strategy. A known lurker, Anak easily took the win in Mafia game 3: http://forums.everybodyedits.com/viewto … 50#p581050

At this point I just don't trust him. That is why I say

!Vote Anak

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I am obsessed with Steven Universe

Anak

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Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

He plays pretty neutral, but then easily hops onto pressure votes: http://forums.everybodyedits.com/viewto … 33#p586033

Here he alludes to possibly knowing who the mafia was targeting: http://forums.everybodyedits.com/viewto … 78#p586678

Although later he claimed that he "read it wrong", or did he? Perhaps it's a part of his strategy. A known lurker, Anak easily took the win in Mafia game 3: http://forums.everybodyedits.com/viewto … 50#p581050

I don't think anyone agreed with that "reaction test" thing, and I found it grounds to vote upon. We all suspected Rhazh anyways. This isn't what I'm too bothered about though.

Yes, I did read it wrong. It was an honest mistake. Why would I make this some sort of strategy? Others (Zoey, I'm pretty sure) had made simple mistakes like that and yet I don't recall anyoen pointing them out. I wouldn't consider myself a lurker either, I'd think I'm more active than others and make some good posts. I've explained why I may not exactly be as active as I could this time around, but I'm still making some sort of effort.
I understand voting me on the neutral play kind of thing, but that post is a bit of a reach. My memory failed me and there's nothing more to it.

Creature

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From: The Dark Web

Joined: 2015-02-15

Posts: 9,658

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

2 days left.

The majority will be 4 votes until I get a replacement for Pyromaniac's slot.

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This is a false statement.

Creature

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From: The Dark Web

Joined: 2015-02-15

Posts: 9,658

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

Votecount 3.2

[1] Kaslai - RhazzleFrazzle
[1] Anak - Calicara
[0] Onjit
[0] maxi123
[0] Calicara
[0] Pyromaniac
[0] AlphaJon
[0] RhazzleFrazzle

[0] No lynch
[6] Not voting: Onjit, Anak, maxi123, Pyromaniac, AlphaJon, Kaslai.

With 8 alive, it takes 5 4 votes to reach majority.

Replacement for Pyromaniac's slot needed.

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This is a false statement.

Onjit

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Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

Creature you missed Calicara's vote.

I don't agree with voting Anak.

On D2, he claimed that he was contacted by the Blackmailer (here)
If this is true, this means that he cannot be mafia (still could be witch however)
OR he's been playing the longcon and this is his ace-in-the-hole in case of an emergency.

So my biggest suspects are Kaslai, Maxi, Calicara and AlphaJon.

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:.|:;

TaskManager

Formerly maxi123

From: i really should update this

Joined: 2015-03-01

Posts: 9,463

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

Votecount 3.2

[1] Kaslai - RhazzleFrazzle
[0] Onjit
[0] Anak
[0] maxi123
[0] Calicara
[0] Pyromaniac
[0] AlphaJon
[0] RhazzleFrazzle

[0] No lynch
[7] Not voting: Onjit, Anak, maxi123, Calicara, Pyromaniac, AlphaJon, Kaslai.

With 8 alive, it takes 5 4 votes to reach majority.

Replacement for Pyromaniac's slot needed.

you missed calicara's vote nub

i still dont know what to add
anak doesnt seem suspicious to me with his posts right now although his behavior is not much different from game 3

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Calicara

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Joined: 2015-02-16

Posts: 932

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

!unvote I forgot about the BMer. :l

Why do people suspect me (is confused @_@?)

I'm just trying to be helpful I don't know what else to say.

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I am obsessed with Steven Universe

Onjit

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Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

my scumreads:

Onjit

dank beams
steel memes

Anak

most likely town, since D2 blackmailer contact, and also not appearing too scummy
"im busy"
"rhaz stop being a ****"

maxi123

pretty much saying
"im confused"
"i agree with rhaz"
"rhaz y u mean"

Calicara

pretty much saying
"don't lynch me bro"
"u can trust me, here's a summary of the points above"
"i'm not gonna say anything that offends anyone"
>:/

Pyromaniac

got heated with rhaz
probably town

AlphaJon

pretty much saying
"rhaz y u mean"
"i agree with everyone, i have no opinion"

Kaslai

hasn't been saying much other than "don't lynch me bro"
:/

RhazzleFrazzle

sheriff
overagressive
secretive
#justrhazthings

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calicara is witch
kaslai and alphajon are mafia

lock it in

now gimme the million dollars

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:.|:;

RhazzleFrazzle

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Joined: 2015-11-10

Posts: 4,260

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

I'm willing to lynch Calicara or Kaslai today Onjit. Nolynching would be a safe move, but we probably won't have much to go off of tomorrow that we don't have today.

Kaslai

Official Caroler

From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚

Joined: 2015-02-17

Posts: 787

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

I'm kind of on the fence about whether we lynch or not.

Because Ninja got himself rek'd by the veteran, we essentially earned a free night. However, we're basically in the same situation we were last night.

The odds of lynching scum given a random choice has actually gone down to 3/8 from 4/10 (similar though slightly worse odds). We can't necessarily rely on another night like last night though, since the bodyguard (who was probably guarding Rhaz) is dead and the mafia knows who the veteran is (and won't attack them again.)

Whoever the mafia are will also probably push towards lynching the veteran since that will be much easier to accomplish than trying to guess when the veteran will expend their second alert night.

I'm also assuming that Rhaz investigated me and came up with a scum result. If the mafia has a framer (which we don't know for sure either way) then that wouldn't be perfectly reliable information, though I can't blame him for jumping on it like he has.

If we mislynch, then the worst case scenario is that we lose 3 town in the night, which is a loss. If we nolynch, we'll lose 2 town at most, which keeps town equal with scum. Like Onjit said though, there's a high probability that we still have a town protective which would keep loss at or below one death. If we lynch a mafia member or the witch though, that would be a worst-case result of 2 scum, 4 town.

Scum-O-Meter:
Rhaz:    0%     [          ]
He's the big cheese around these parts. Anything he says goes.

Pyro:    10%    [|         ]
Pyro clearly seems far too vacant of mind to be scum.

Onjit:    40%    [|||||     ]
Clearly trying his best to appear to be town. He doesn't necessarily have the best interest of the town at heart though, as he's willing to sacrifice town to drag on the game.

Maxi:    50%    [|||||     ]
Maxi has been aligned with Rhaz from the start, possibly as a ploy to hide scum, possibly just because it's easier than thinking for yourself.

Calicara:    50%    [|||||     ]
Very active in the game. I'm having a hard time reading her actions, but she seems reasonably invested in keeping town safe from rash action.

Anak:    70%    [|||||||   ]
I re-evaluated the historical record, and he's been very quiet in general. I think he might have claimed to have been blackmailed from the start as a ploy to gain quick favor with the town. Something's not right with Anak.

Alpha:    80%    [||||||||  ]
Again, very difficult to read. He seems to be constantly changing his alignment and seems like a rogue actor who might be the witch or mafia.

Kas:    100%    [||||||||||]
Rhaz hates this guy. He's also willing to sacrifice town to drag on the duration of the game like Onjit.

AlphaJon

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From: Who knows

Joined: 2015-07-21

Posts: 1,297

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

Tbh I don't have anyone in mind for mafia or witch, so I'll just
!nolynch
for now, however,

Onjit's post reminded me of that N1/D2 blackmail message, but what surprises me is that noone mentions being contacted the days after that one, and the blackmailer can do his action while killing, so there would be no point in not using his ability (because he can follow the one he sends a message to, right?).
My guess is that there is no blackmailer, and Anak could have made it up to cover himself. However I could be wrong, and in this case the blackmailer simply doesn't supposedly worry about his special ability. And who knows, the blackmailer may show up tonight in this case.
Whatever the outcome is, I'm not so sure about him being town, but not enough doubt yet to vote him.

Onjit

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Joined: 2015-02-15

Posts: 9,708

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Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

If we lynch a mafia member or the witch though, that would be a worst-case result of 2 scum, 4 town.

worst-case result of 2 scum, 4 town

GOT EM

WE DID IT BOYS

WE GOT THE SLIP

lol

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:.|:;

Kaslai

Official Caroler

From: SEAͩT̓͑TLͯͥͧͪ̽ͧE͑̚

Joined: 2015-02-17

Posts: 787

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

GOT EM

WE DID IT BOYS

WE GOT THE SLIP

Slip of the keyboard more like.

It'd be 2 scum, 3 town, my apologies.

TaskManager

Formerly maxi123

From: i really should update this

Joined: 2015-03-01

Posts: 9,463

Re: Mafia | Game 5 - Mafia/Witch Victory: The New Law

If we mislynch, then the worst case scenario is that we lose 3 town in the night,

If we nolynch, we'll lose 2 town at most,

wat
i dont get it, explain

Rhaz:    0%     [          ]

you know there is always slight probability that rhaz played this out with ninja to get a confirmed town spot?
i mean thats highly unlikely but still

Maxi:    50%    [|||||     ]
Maxi has been aligned with Rhaz from the start, possibly as a ploy to hide scum, possibly just because it's easier than thinking for yourself.

(this one is a response to you as well as someone else that pointed out im teaming with rhaz, idk who)
hmm
i wasnt always siding with rhaz
i was against rhaz with the "lynch unau" bandwagon and only voted to lynch unau at the end because we had to get rid of him anyway
i initially agreed with him about ninja being scummy for copying rhaz's vote (though i went neutral bit later). and ninja turned out to be mafia.
i confronted rhaz when he did an absurd vote on alphajon
and do i look like i support him in voting you right now? no
what's your point?

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