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#2 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » Today 00:15:15

Pqwerty wrote:

Why would Proc be hinting at anyone being a tracker?

Roleclaiming has benefits to both Power Roles and Mafia. Hinting at it gives more credibility to future roleclaims. Processor did say it was an accident though.

Schlog wrote:

i just wanna know what you're thinking. seems less like you're forming your own opinions and more like you're just following the flow of the game

I didn't have many opinions that were distinct from Bobithan's.

The sudden two votes on me surprised me a bit. Pqwerty strikes me as desperate, quickly distancing themselves from me after this post:

Processor wrote:

Both Pqwerty and N1KF are reluctant to vote for another; which is giving me the strongest scum vibe overall; even tho my heart says Pqwerty is innocent

Processor feels off to me. I'll look into his posts.

#3 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » Yesterday 23:46:13

Bobithan wrote:

Schlog just put diff at L-1 guys, that's kind of a big deal and we just blew right past it

We only have a few hours left. I don't blame Schlog too much for that; anybody who hammers Schlog early (which I doubt will happen) would be suspicious.

Processor wrote:

Diff seems Innocent!

everyone I have as a potential scum-read is in favor of lynching diff

You capitalized Innocent... are you trying to hint at a Town Tracker role?

Schlog wrote:

honestly i don't really like how completely neutral n1kf is, either; like surely you have someone you want out, right? i don't think you ever even explained your OWN diff vote, and just kinda did it because edilights did

No, I didn't. I mentioned twice Day 2 that Different55 needed to post. I don't know what Edilight's motives are.

What would satisfy you? I could change much vote to Pqwerty, but would you criticize me for being too similar to Bobithan? What do you want me to do?

#4 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » Yesterday 23:22:45

whoops, Juggernaut has 1/3 chance.

Schlog wrote:

the likelihood of him getting subbed in is extremely low because the day ends in 6 hours and onjit will be at work the entire time

Why couldn't he be subbed Day 3?

#5 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » Yesterday 23:09:47

Under 6 hours remain.

Pqwerty wrote:

@Peoxwaaoe

https://wiki.everybodyedits.com/images/c/c0/069_LOL

Pqwerty wrote:

@N1KF sometimes the calculations are helpful but unless you have time to both calculate and solve I'd really prefer that you prioritized solving over calculating and summarizing.

Fair enough. I tried to keep this short. The odds are technically lower because of the 2/3 chance of Jailkeeper, who has 2/6 chance of jailing night killer or night kill victim.

Day 2

5/7 of voting out a Townie. (Assuming all players are equally suspect, which is unlikely.)
Total chance: 71.428%: ((5/7) * 100)

Night 2

2/3 chance of Juggernaut kill.
Total chance: 47.619% ((5/7) * (2/3) * 100)

#6 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » Yesterday 22:58:27

oops I only counted one vote for Different55.

Pqwerty wrote:

Like Bobithan's case is literally just based on hypotheticals and nitpicking and misunderstanding. I've made quite a few posts showing that it doesn't hold up to scrutiny so why are we still believing them?

Yeah I agree some of Bobithan's statements could be dismissed as nitpicking or misunderstanding. But some of them are directly your responsibility (like describing BuzzerBee as calling me a "nothing role"), and the Babysitter being a problem was unlikely as I explained in #103.

Pqwerty wrote:

Has it been a N1KF Bobithan team this whole time? They were both on Buzzerbee yesterday and all they'd have to do is convince you and Schlog to vote me to win the game.

There are 7 players. 5 Townies, and 2 Scum.

If 2 Townies get killed by day vote and night, there will be 3 Townies and 2 Scum. The Townies would still outnumber Mafia unless a Mafia 1-Shot Juggernaut (1/3 chance) used their ability.

I'll try calculating the odds of Town losing Night 2.

#7 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » Yesterday 22:40:53

6 hours and 19 minutes remaining.

Votes:

  • Pqwerty (2): Bobithan (#85), Processor (#131)

  • Different55 (1): Edilights (#86), N1KF (#103)

  • Bobithan (1): Pqwerty (#107)

  • N1KF: Processor (#112)

pedit: lol ninja'd https://wiki.everybodyedits.com/images/6/67/013_ninja

#8 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » Yesterday 21:49:41

Thinking about it some more, a Different55 kill would not give us much info. I put him at the top, mainly reasoning that he's not providing anything for the Town.

I underestimated how much activity there would be, so I thought voting on somebody would be more urgent than it was. I'm open to switching votes on somebody who would give us more clues.

Bobithan wrote:

Our path to a pqwerty elim today might be tough. I think the way that happens is with me+N1KF+proc+schlog since diff is AWOL and edilights is a being of pure chaos. Diff seems like a much easier elim right now as he's only 2 votes away from going, which might point to somebody red between edilights and N1KF and since I feel good about N1KF that probably means red edilights?? Certainly not impossible.

If I changed my vote to Pqwerty, they'd have as many votes as Diff has right now. I can back up a Pqwerty vote if needed.

#9 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » Yesterday 08:08:17

Wait no, 21 hours remain. I spent like 2 hours with that post...

#10 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » Yesterday 07:50:38

23 hours remain.

!vote Different55

I feel I ought to respond to Pqwerty since I was rather critical.

Pqwerty wrote:

I don't get this either. If Zumza says that I'm mafia then isn't this kill too obvious? Like of course all the heat is going to go on the guy who was scumread by the guy who died. For example, if N1KF died last night all the heat would be on processor since processor was their top sr D1. Why would I draw so much attention to myself when I could kill off N1KF and go for Processor the next day?

Zumza hinted at a possible PR, which is a good reason for Mafia to target them.

Zumza wrote:

In the very unlikely scenario where Buzz gets lynched and flips Town, I think the best course of action would be to PR on Pqwerty (maybe I, maybe you who is reading this //forums.everybodyedits.com/img/smilies/wink).

Pqwerty wrote:

I have been focused on a babysitter because it's an anti-town role that could potentially make the game end in two days

I decided to do the maths... For Mafia to reach half the player count (2/4 players) you would need to not only kill five Townies, but also not have a single Mafioso die.

There are three outcomes:

  • Babysitter voted out (no extra kill)

  • Mafioso dies (makes the game much, much harder for Mafia)

  • Babysitter killed at night (what you were worried about)

Game Start

3/12 chance there is a Babysitter.
Chance of continuing: 25% or (3/12) * 100

Day 1

6/9 chance non-Babysitter Townie is voted out. 3/9 chance of Mafia or Babysitter, ending this hypothetical.

Chance of continuing: 16.667% or (3/12) * (6/9) * 100
6 Town remain out of 8.

Night 1

Ignoring possible role blocks, 1/6 chance of Babysitter kill. 6/8 chance Babysitter targets Townie (IF they target anybody)
Add an additional 2/3 chance of Juggernaut coming with Babysitter.

First chance of killing Babysitter + Protectee: 3.472% or ((3/12) * (6/9) * ((1+(2/3))/6) * (6/8)) * 100
Chance of continuing: 16.667% or (3/12) * (6/9) * 100
4 Town remain out of 6.

See, we're already at the Mafia's first chance to kill, and there's already no more than 4% chance of a Babysitter and their victim being killed before the Mafia dies first.

Day 2

3/6 chance non-Babysitter Townie is voted out. 3/6 chance of Mafia or Babysitter, ending this hypothetical.
Chance of continuing: 8.333% or (3/12) * (6/9) * (3/6) * 100
4 Town remain.

Night 2

Ignoring possible role blocks, 1/4 chance of Babysitter kill. 4/6 chance Babysitter targets Townie (IF they target anybody)
Second chance of killing Babysitter + Protectee: 1.388% or ((3/12) * (6/9) * ((1+(2/3))/6) * (6/8)) * 100 (not including Night 1 chance or Juggernaut)

#11 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » Yesterday 01:10:20

Thanks for giving a faintest idea; that's a better lead than absolutely nothing. Analyzing the votes could be effective, but it rules out anybody who lurked too much on Day 1 to vote (you and Different55).

Your list also excludes Pqwerty whom you've described as town-leading. I'm interested in seeing the reasoning for that.

#12 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » Yesterday 00:55:56

Bobithan wrote:

if proc is green theres at least one maf between zumza and n1kf i think

This is a bit late, but I'd like to know Bobithan's reasoning behind this. How did you conclude we are Mafia?

I don't consider these really serious accusations considering it was Day 1 and you changed your mind, but it would be nice to have this explained.

Scale o' Scumminess
  1. Different55: Still only one post. Lurker goes on top by default.

  2. Pqwerty: Pushed a Day 1 Babysitter claim, opposed by Zumza (confirmed town). Possibly endangers Town, and focus on Babysitter hints towards Mafia 1-Shot Juggernaut.

  3. Processor: Starts off opposing Bobithan, describing him as "sneaky" as well as me and Schlog without elaboration.

  4. Edilights: A chaotic soul who votes without explaining. Not much to go on.

  5. Bobithan: Has the most pro-Town leads of all players. Strangest move was opposing me and Zumza for one post and not elaborating.

  6. Schlog: Seems fairly neutral. Gave two suggestions, but retracted them after Bobithan pointed out the flaws. Ironically comes across as slightly more Town than Bobithan to me.

  7. Onjit: Still innocent.

#13 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » Yesterday 00:25:58

On further thought, I'm siding more with Bobithan. Processor looks more suspicious to me, framing him negatively while also not elaborating on the N1KF or Schlog suspicions.

Bobithan wrote:

I don't like that he's so hung up about a babysitter when there's only a 25% chance a babysitter is in the game given starting information. Now that we know there's a tracker in this setup, maybe our mafia team has a juggernaut which makes a babysitter a lot more likely from a red POV.

This is the strongest piece of evidence I've seen so far IMO. Pqwerty knowing there's a Mafia 1-Shot Juggernaut more than doubles the Babysitter chances to 2/3.

Pqwerty's post is also 8 hours after the game started, enough for the Mafia to strategize. Here's Pqwerty's first post:

Pqwerty wrote:

Hi everyone. I think just for general strategy here we should only have the babysitter claim and then have babysitter protect their scumreads because (1) if the babysitter is right about their scumread and the mafia shoots them, then both the babysitter and the mafia die OR (2) the mafia don’t kill the babysitter and we have an uncc’d hard-to-kill PR and we can just vote among everyone else. But also it’s the most anti-town role in the sense that it could kill a town (and potentially a town PR that can RB) in a double-kill.

Historically you guys haven’t been on board with hypo’ing cop investigations but I think that would also be a safe way to get investigations out if  there is a cop.

Any other setup should just not claim. Also this gives us more info because we can either eliminate or include setups with the babysitter depending on if there’s a claim, and I think knowing the exact setup we’re in is going to be helpful. Of course, we should also be doing the normal scum hunting but I think this strat is informative

If a Babysitter followed this strategy (targeting a scum suspect), Night 1 is the most likely they would mess up and target an innocent person based on the limited info. It also has the highest chance that a Town Jailkeeper (2/3 from Juggernaut) or Town Roleblocker (1/3 from Juggernaut) will not who to target as the killer. So this strategy does have an "anti-town" effect as Pqwerty puts it.

Zumza, a confirmed townie, was the most vocal opponent of the Babysitter Claim.

I want to hear from Different55.

#14 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » 2024-03-26 21:00:09

Processor listed me and Schlog as scum suspects and wrote a whole post about Bobithan before saying a peep about either of us. He also asked Bobithan for a pqwerty scum read before explaining those other scum reads himself.

I am curious about Processor's and Bobithan's sudden Day 2 pushes on Bobithan and Pqwerty respectively. Might be the sign of Town Tracker (1/3) or Mafia Rolecop (2/3) results at night. Or maybe I'm just being paranoid here.

Processor wrote:
N1KF wrote:

I guess I should get to work making a chart or something of the interactions between players.

Great idea!

Please find attached an overview of all interactions so far
Let me know if I missed anything

The keyword is "should"...instead I made a rather wordy summary in #74. I think my chart would be a bit redundant with yours.

I need to go right now so I'll probably focus on scum review later. There are probably better leads to look into, then I'll make my Scale o' Scumminess.

#15 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » 2024-03-25 08:57:49

With 7 players, 4 votes are needed for a majority, I'm guessing. Mafia can have 2/4 those votes. If you want to be extra safe, don't cast a second vote on a player yet.

Since BuzzerBee was a Town Follower, we have 7/12 of the clock deconfirmed. Here's an new clock, with the fractions showing how likely they're present.

vYn4nKZ.png

The possible remaining power roles:

  • 2-3-4: Town Tracker, Mafia Rolecop

  • 3-4-5: Mafia Rolecop, Town Jailkeeper

  • 4-5-6: Town Jailkeeper, Mafia 1-Shot Juggernaut

If we have 2-3-4, Town's last power role would be Tracker. So, if a Tracker tracks another player doing something at night, that player is guaranteed scum.

I don't have much more time now, but I hope to do the Scale o' Scumminess after reviewing the Day 1 posts again.

#17 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » 2024-03-24 04:50:18

Yeah I was planning on that. I don't know how much we can get out of the next ten minutes.

#18 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » 2024-03-24 04:38:35

22 minutes remaining. My summary is done.

Search for Scum

#25 Bobithan says Schlog is probably town. Still holds this position on #60.

#30 Edilights votes Schlog without explanation. #34 Zumza votes Edilights for not explaining. #60 Bobithan has no idea on Edilights. #66 Schlog puts Edilights as #2 voting pick, describing them as volatile for not explaining votes.

#46 N1KF posts Scale o' Scumminess, with Proc on top and Pqwerty on bottom (based on "pretty much nothing").

#60 Bobithan posts town reads. Suggests Zumza, pqwerty, and Schlog are town. The rest are covered in other paragraphs.

#60 Bobithan points out Diff did nothing but ask the game setup. #66 Schlog describes him as "not necessarily suspicious, but more like a safe bet" to be voted on (vote pick #3).

#70 Pqwerty thinks Bobithan, Zumza, and N1KF are town.

Setup and Strategy

#11 Zumza backs off on setup discussion (see the babysitter section), want more opinions. #13 Bobithan says something similar and #17 BuzzerBee agrees. #51 Bobithan discourages it again.

#32 N1KF asks if day 1 should be ended early. #38 Schlog suggests ending early after discussion. #39 Bobithan analyzes and suggests longer days are better.

#48 Schlog discourages day 1 vote. #50 Bobithan counters. #52 Schlog counters. #62 Schlog talks about it more. #63 Pqwerty considers it. #64 Bobithan explains this, finds Pqwerty suspicious. #65 N1KF appears to be also be in defense of day 1 vote. #66 Schlog accepts Bobithan's math, and #69 Pqwerty does too.

#59 N1KF reminds people that Mafia has daychat.

BuzzerBee and the Babysitter (and pqwerty)

#10 Pqwerty proposes Babysitter Claim. #13 Bobithan discourages BC and role talk. #20 Pqwerty pushes for BC and role talk. #23 Zumza discouarages BC. #43 BuzzerBee leaning town for pqwerty, saying BC is a "smart move". #49 Zumza asks for clarity. #53 Refers to pwerty's post, but backpedals saying he "doesn't agree" with BC. #54 Zumza confused by that. #55 Pqwerty defends BuzzerBee. #69 Pqwerty still worried about babysitter, but admits chances are low.

#53 BuzzerBee votes N1KF for being "pretty neutral". #56 Pqwerty likes N1KF's reads; states they don't understand BuzzerBee's votes on N1KF. Suspects Processor/BuzzerBee team. #66 Schlog understands the sentiment on BuzzerBee, calling him sus and "technically neutral too".

#56 Pqwerty says Zumza "feels active enough to call town".

#57 Zumza ROASTS THE BC WITH FACTS AND LOGIC, stating a BC would benefit the Mafia a whole lot. Votes BuzzerBee. #58 Pqwerty STILL likes the BC, but in a twist, votes for BuzzerBee over the N1KF comment. #59 N1KF "might vote BuzzerBee" if needed. #60 Bobithan has BuzzerBee has top suspect, and votes him. #63 Pqwerty describes BuzzerBee as suspicious. Pqwerty and #65 N1KF still want to hear from Buzz.

Processing Processor's Post

#33 N1KF calls out Processor for lurking.

#36 Processor asks what a Vanilla Townie is. #40 Bobithan votes him for "softclaiming vt", and #41 Zumza votes as well trusting Bobithan.

#42 Schlog defends Processor, suggesting he's "just trolling". However, in #66 Schlog changes Proc to #1 vote pick. Schlog suggests from his "history of mindgaming" that Proc's VT claim may be a bluff; calls him out for not significantly posting.

#44 N1KF votes for Processor, wanting him to "post something more substantial". #45 Bobithan votes Zumza; states if Proc is green then at least one of Zumza or N1KF is Mafia. #47 N1KF asks to clarify. #50 Bobithan still leans to Proc as Mafia, but decides the bandwagon is sus like everything else. In #60 Bobithan still holds his position.

#72 Pqwerty now worried about Mafia Rolecop, says it "makes Processor look worse that they claimed VT"

#19 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » 2024-03-24 04:09:12

Under an hour remaining.

If Different55 or Processor don't post again day 1, it should be a high priority to get their feedback day 2.

Pqwerty wrote:

Again im just worried about a potential babysitter but that’s only like a 1/12 chance or something similar so yeah let’s just vote and hope there isn’t a babysitter to potentially ruin things.

All but one power role have a 3/12 chance, so triple that. Mafia Rolecop is on the clock twice, so it has a 6/12 chance.

#20 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » 2024-03-24 03:41:15

oh goofy me, Zumza pointed that out in post #54. I should have at least checked a few posts ahead.

#21 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » 2024-03-24 03:39:08

BuzzerBee wrote:

i thought more about their reasoning for babysitter claiming and it’s actually a smart move imo

BuzzerBee wrote:

i don’t agree that babysitter should claim, i was just pointing out that i thought Pqwerty was town because i don’t think it’s something mafia would’ve brought up

Emphasis added. Is this backpedalling?

#22 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » 2024-03-24 03:01:59

2 hours remain. And Bobithan basically ninja'd me on explaining why a day 1 execution may be preferred, as I had to do some digging to remind myself how it works.

I hope BuzzerBee returns so they can respond.

I guess I should get to work making a chart or something of the interactions between players.

#23 Re: Forum Games » 🕐🕑🕒🕓🕔🕕 Mafia 56 (Clock Mafia) 🕖🕗🕘🕙🕚🕛 » 2024-03-24 00:15:20

Under 5 hours remain. I might vote BuzzerBee if we need to kill somebody.

I think I'll look more into how people are interacting with each other. Remember that Mafia has daychat so they very well could try to manipulate the day 1 discussion.

Votes
  • 2 - BuzzerBee: Zumza, Pqwerty

  • 1 - N1KF: BuzzerBee

  • 1 - Processor: Bobithan, Zumza, N1KF

  • 1 - Schlog: Edilights, N1KF

  • 0 - Edilights: Zumza

  • 0 - Zumza: Bobithan

Correct me if I messed something up.

#24 Re: Worlds » Super EE Party » 2024-03-23 20:57:21

Kirby wrote:

yes go ahead i want to play this again

somebody should make a game like this, and put somebody famous in it like mario

#25 Re: Forum Games » Mafia Universe Championship 11 Invitation » 2024-03-23 20:55:07

AllenCaspe9510 wrote:

Yoshi Fabrication Station level contest with a prizepool of 30€

There's a Yoshi level contest with a cash reward?? Why haven't I seen anything about this on the forums?

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